I honestly have no idea.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:38 (six years ago) link
(might come to a conclusion by Sunday)
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:39 (six years ago) link
i want to say Judge *would* win but i actually think those 200+ K's will hurt him a bit. they'll give him ROY unanimously but i think Altuve will edge him out for MVP. probably deserved.
― nomar, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:41 (six years ago) link
i thought maybe Ramirez or Lindor would have a shot but between the two of them, neither one has emerged as better in the eyes of voters so the narrative isn't there.
Kluber has been amazing but i doubt he'll get much traction.
― nomar, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:44 (six years ago) link
between the pitchers, for this and the Cy, I think Sale having 300 K could be decisive -- he's only the 5th guy this century to do it (also he hasn't won the Cy before). I think the bias vs pitchers will keep MVP btwn Altuve and Judge.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:47 (six years ago) link
yeah, it's a tossup. i'm guessing altuve will win, but for silly reasons: reluctance to give MVPs to pitchers (and splitting the vote among those that do) + people who decide that judge can be happy with his ROY for now and will have plenty of chances for MVP in the future
― Karl Malone, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:48 (six years ago) link
also a blow for the Little Guy against the toxic plague of home runs
also Judge got back into "the conversation" with a string of garbage-time HRs
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:49 (six years ago) link
i'm not sure Sale takes it despite the 300 Ks, but i think a lot depends on their final starts. if Kluber klubers again, he'll have that shiny 19-4 record and a lot of Ks as well. If Sale is mediocre he will not win, if he has another great start i still think he's just shy of Kluber (unless the latter completely falls apart.)
― nomar, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:55 (six years ago) link
anyway for MVP i don't think either guy has a chance, it would have taken a season where there weren't any position players with eye-popping numbers.
― nomar, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:56 (six years ago) link
I think Felix's Cy proved a lot fewer voters look at W-L, and it goes down every year.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 26 September 2017 16:58 (six years ago) link
i agree but i think there might be enough of those dudes to tip the balance if it's close (plus coupled w/Kluber's edge in a lot of categories + that Cleveland win streak, etc.)
it's maybe similar to the Arrieta/Greinke/Kershaw Cy battle in 2015.
― nomar, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 17:01 (six years ago) link
Kluber obv is no Arrieta.
Altuve.
W-L is no impediment to Cy Youngs anymore--that started back with Greinke/Lincecum/Felix, and by now that's a closed book. But I think--observing, not endorsing--an MVP still, for now at least, requires the gaudy W-L record. Kershaw was 21-3, Verlander 24-5, all the way back to Clemens at 24-4. That'll change eventually too, but the last few votes don't suggest it has yet.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 19:20 (six years ago) link
gotta be future hall of famer jose altuve
― qualx, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 20:08 (six years ago) link
I wouldn't be surprised that Judge or Sale gets a bunch of east coast votes, but to me Altuve has had a monster season and should win it in a walk away.
― earlnash, Tuesday, 26 September 2017 22:24 (six years ago) link
judge has been every bit as good as altuve!
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 26 September 2017 22:30 (six years ago) link
possibly
also, as ever, idgaf
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 September 2017 00:58 (six years ago) link
Judge was so bad in July and August that it's kind of hard to pick him. Altuve is far and away the best player at his position and it would be super fun for him to get the award.
I kinda think it should still be trout, tbh
― bodak horseman (voodoo chili), Wednesday, 27 September 2017 03:01 (six years ago) link
i really don't see how trout has a case tbh, it was one thing when his numbers were still so much better than everyone else's, but he's cooled off. and i'm definitely a trout partisan
don't really get penalizing judge for being hot and cold, what does that really matter? his overall production is what it is
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 September 2017 03:49 (six years ago) link
yeah i don't get how the patterns of your value distribution across the season matters much.
The #Angels are getting 13 wins from Trout and Simmons on their way to a .500 season. Yeesh.— Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) September 27, 2017
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 September 2017 15:39 (six years ago) link
Albert's gonna cancel out 2 of those wins all by his lonesome. but hey 100 RBIs #soclutch
― nomar, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 16:10 (six years ago) link
How high will Buxton finish--7th or 8th?
― clemenza, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 17:21 (six years ago) link
i can't really see it. he's a rookie who struggled at the plate for half the season, and his numbers aren't remotely top-10 worthy. doubt the twins backing into the playoffs is going to matter much
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:02 (six years ago) link
he was the 4th best CF in the american league by fWAR
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:04 (six years ago) link
that gets you 7th or 8th place in MVP voting?
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:09 (six years ago) link
i mean he had a nice season, i don't think he's getting many MVP votes tho
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:13 (six years ago) link
buxton has a 92 wrc+
i don't care how great his defense is, there aren't too many mvp votes for guys who hit below league average
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:15 (six years ago) link
xpostsoh, no way. i was saying to make the point that that he wasn't even top tier center fielder this year, let alone a serious MVP candidate.
if he can keep his second-hitting ways up for a full season, though, he'll be a contender for sure
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:15 (six years ago) link
second half-hitting ways (137 wRC+), i meant.
― Karl Malone, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:16 (six years ago) link
words and sentence fragments are beginning to disintegrate for me before i can get them down
200 hits for altuve
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 18:18 (six years ago) link
You're right about Buxton, hadn't looked at him that closely. Just figured they'd land a Twin in the Top 10, but I guess not.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 19:27 (six years ago) link
Dozier has a better analytics case for a top-10 vote
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 27 September 2017 19:30 (six years ago) link
That's what happens when you just glance at a WAR leaderboard--didn't realize how relatively tepid Buxton's offensive numbers are. He's not even that much better than Pillar; walks and homers a little more frequently, but Pillar's out-doubled him 37-14. (Buxton has more triples 6-1.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 01:57 (six years ago) link
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/aaron-judge-has-been-the-least-clutch-player-on-record/
i still struggle with this argument -- if awards are about "rewarding history", then why not just go by W/L and ERA for cy young? awards should reward the individual who performed the best imo
― k3vin k., Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:56 (six years ago) link
because those aren't very good measures of one's contributions to history?
― mookieproof, Thursday, 28 September 2017 13:05 (six years ago) link
i guess i disagree that clutch performance -- which, most likely, is literally pure noise and randomness -- is a "good measure" of contribution
― k3vin k., Thursday, 28 September 2017 13:16 (six years ago) link
It's interesting that so many 21st century players are on the all-time un-clutch list -- possibly, as suggested, because hitters are facing better relievers than ever at the end of games. It seems to make sense on the surface ... but if so, why are there so many star players on that list? Wouldn't the non-star players struggle even more against the best relievers?
I wouldn't jump to any conclusions and factor it into my MVP vote, but it is intriguing.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 September 2017 13:35 (six years ago) link
why are there so many star players on that list?
a certain level of performance has to be reached before variations become noticeable. dropping from a 10 wrc+ to a 9 in clutch situations isn't as big a deal as dropping from 100 to 90.
i don't think anyone is suggesting that the mvp award be given solely for wpa, but if other things are more or less equal, why shouldn't it be a factor? it may have been random and unrepeatable and not predictive of future performance, but it *happened*
― mookieproof, Thursday, 28 September 2017 14:35 (six years ago) link
In Harper's MVP season he was the clear leader in WAR but I remember people making a possible case for Rizzo based on WPA and other "clutch" metrics. But I think in most years the differences between MVP candidates aren't very significant.
With pitchers I think there's a stronger case to be made for using strength of competition as a substitute for "clutch". A great start against a weak team (or a season worth in a weak division) shouldn't be worth as much as a great start against a strong team.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 September 2017 15:13 (six years ago) link
it's not so easy to glob team members together into 'good' and 'bad' teams though. should a pitcher get less credit for striking out trout because the rest of his team sucks?
― qualx, Thursday, 28 September 2017 16:16 (six years ago) link
https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2017/9/28/16380196/al-nl-impossible-mvp-races-war-aaron-judge-jose-altuve-kris-bryant-giancarlo-stanton
― mookieproof, Thursday, 28 September 2017 20:14 (six years ago) link
I'm genuinely puzzled as to why more people don't look at Judge and see--or at least account for the possibility of--Ryan Howard. When you compare Howard's MVP year to Judge this year, there's not a lot of daylight.
Howard (26) - .313/.425/.659, 25 2B, 1, 3B, 58 HR, 167 OPS+, 6.1 oWAR, 199/107 K/BB, .356 BAbip Judge (25) - .284/.421/.622, 24 2B, 3 3B, 50 HR, 168 OPS+, 6.8 oWAR, 204/124 K/BB, .358 BAbip
That basically looks like the same season to me, at basically the same age--both got a late start. Is it that Judge is a right fielder, and therefore obviously more athletic, or is there more to it than that? If you look at Howard month-to-month in 2006, he didn't go through anything like Judge's slump in July and August (his worst OPS was .882 in April; everything else was between .987-1.312). If anything, I would think that would have been a point in Howard's favor at the time, if you'd been trying to predict his future.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:22 (six years ago) link
Extra comma there--one triple for Howard (which I'm sure was quite a dash...).
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:23 (six years ago) link
i've been wishfully thinking about that comparison all season
― qualx, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:29 (six years ago) link
of course he could turn into ryan howard. or he could turn into nelson cruz. neither has any bearing on his 2017 al mvp status
― mookieproof, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:29 (six years ago) link
would Howard get his undeserved MVP nowadays? not so sure Utley would be denied
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:31 (six years ago) link
Howard was (even that season) an an outstandingly poor defensive player whereas Judge this year has been pretty good (which may account partially for the gap in bWAR between the two, 7.8 (thus far) to 5.2
― nomar, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:33 (six years ago) link
i dunnnnnno, some believe in defensive metrics, some don't
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:37 (six years ago) link
I intentionally left defense out of it, and wasn't even thinking about the MVP--just talking about them as hitters. Having much more defensive value will certainly keep Judge in the lineup longer whenever his numbers do start to slip.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 23:42 (six years ago) link
I realize the writer in the link above is making a general point with his Pierre/Dunn = Altuve/Judge analogy, but Juan Pierre hit 18 career HR in 8000+ AB; Altuve's hit 24 two seasons in a row. I like that he brought up the '88 NL MVP vote; I remember that one being really hard to call, and James writing something like Strawberry was going to be the first casualty of more detailed stats (I think he hit poorly with runners or base). Imagine Hershiser would win today.
― clemenza, Friday, 29 September 2017 02:16 (six years ago) link
i don't get what the ryan howard comparison is supposed to illustrate
― k3vin k., Friday, 29 September 2017 03:46 (six years ago) link
The future, Mr. Gittes...the future. Just trying to guess what kind of a career he's going to have. I should've put that on the Judge thread--it wasn't meant to be linked to the MVP vote in any way.
― clemenza, Friday, 29 September 2017 04:02 (six years ago) link
ugh these movie guys
― mookieproof, Friday, 29 September 2017 04:04 (six years ago) link
it's linked to my mvp vote fuck if i'm gonna be on the wrong side of history
― qualx, Friday, 29 September 2017 04:15 (six years ago) link
that's why i vote for future hall of famer jose altuve every year
Altuve reminds me of Ryne Sandberg, except probably better hitter. Sandberg's range seemed to me to be huge playing second watching him as a kid.
― earlnash, Friday, 29 September 2017 04:17 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Sunday, 1 October 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link
i think judge has a chance
― k3vin k., Sunday, 1 October 2017 03:51 (six years ago) link
i find in favor of Judge
― nomar, Sunday, 1 October 2017 03:59 (six years ago) link
Altuve's MLB stats look like Ichiro's stats from Japan. He's like an upgraded version of Ichiro (at the plate at least)!
I don't have an issue with consistency counting for something in a close MVP race. I don't care when you have your best month -- April is no different from September -- but six great months counts for a bit more than four great months and two OK ones.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 1 October 2017 13:07 (six years ago) link
or the non-Yankee tiebreaker
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 1 October 2017 13:38 (six years ago) link
During the time that Correa was out--July 18 to Sept. 2--Altuve was at his best:
40 games, .384/.418/.597, 18 XBH, 7 HR
Houston was so far ahead at that point (15.5 up when Correa went down), you could say it's a moot point. In a close contest, I'd give that a little weight.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 October 2017 15:56 (six years ago) link
It's not his fault he played in a weak division/year with only four good teams in the entire league. I don't believe in added MVP value if your team wins by one game rather than 20.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 1 October 2017 16:01 (six years ago) link
My last sentence was ambiguous there; I meant that in a close MVP race, which this one is, I'd give Altuve a little extra credit for his excellence during Correa's absence.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 October 2017 16:08 (six years ago) link
Kluber 1.62 ERA from when he came back (June 1) until the end of the season - 23 starts.
― timellison, Sunday, 1 October 2017 16:56 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Monday, 2 October 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link
xpost to clem, OK I see your point but still don't agree!
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 2 October 2017 09:53 (six years ago) link
I hereby nickname you "The Death of Narrative."
― clemenza, Monday, 2 October 2017 11:25 (six years ago) link
I like individual narratives as the tiebreaker in a close vote, like Stanton having a ridiculous 2nd half and chasing 60 HR. But team-based narratives are just that -- they're about the team, and shouldn't affect the voting for an individual award.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 2 October 2017 12:57 (six years ago) link
My A.L. ballot would go 1) Altuve, 2) Judge, 3) Kluber, 4) Trout, 5) Ramirez.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 October 2017 13:26 (six years ago) link
Altuve ephemera from the internet:
At 5'6", Altuve is the shortest player in the majors since the 5'5" Freddie Patek, who retired after the 1981 season.
And at year's end, he may well become the shortest player to win the American League Most Valuable Player Award since the New York Yankees' 5'6" Phil Rizzuto in 1950.
This year he became the first player in history to lead either league outright in hits in four consecutive seasons, according to Elias Sports Bureau. And during his seven-year career, Altuve has more multihit games (358) than oh-fers (239).
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735785-once-ignored-by-mlb-56-superstar-jose-altuve-may-now-be-its-mvp
― clemenza, Friday, 6 October 2017 12:07 (six years ago) link
Alexi Amarista is also 5'6"!
― timellison, Friday, 6 October 2017 23:32 (six years ago) link