This looks like the most competitive MVP race in a while, all these guys are awesome, two are former MVP winners and the rest are superstars in their own right. It feels like Stanton's year though.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 27 September 2017 13:08 (six years ago) link
and another former MVP (harper) who would have a case if not for injury
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 27 September 2017 13:18 (six years ago) link
John Dewan's Total Runs leaders for each league:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_total_runs_leaderboard_and_the_mvp_race/
I don't know who's going to win the NL, or who deserves to. Goldschmidt's slumping, Stanton hasn't done a whole lot since the end of his HR barrage, and I'm personally not big on anyone out of Colorado (I know, adjustments--you either accept them or remain skeptical). Any of them would be okay, Rendon or Bryant too, but no one's blown past anyone else. The thing that nags at me about Scherzer is that in five out of 30 starts, he's given up 4-7 runs--dominant when on, a few poor ones mixed in. (I can't remember what Verlander's game log looked like; I know Kershaw only had one or two poor starts in his MVP year.) I think Votto might be the best choice at this point. J.D. Martinez has been phenomenal for two-plus months, but obviously he's not going to win, and shouldn't.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 03:24 (six years ago) link
that's always been an interesting question to me re JDM, just at a basic technical level. how do you vote for someone who spent the year split between 2 leagues? i remember during manny's big year where he got traded to the dodgers, before WAR was the be-all stat, i thought he was having a great year possibly worthy of an MVP, but how do you vote him (he ended up 4th)
let's say a hitter earns 7 WAR as a tiger before the deadline, gets traded to the diamondbacks and earns 3 more, and no one else in either league gets over 7. does he win the NL MVP?
― qualx, Thursday, 28 September 2017 03:47 (six years ago) link
Some inconsistency with pitchers on that front--Doyle Alexander finished 4th in the '87 AL Cy Young for 11 starts, and Rick Sutcliffe won in '84 after arriving in June (should have been Gooden), yet Randy Johnson and CC Sabathia didn't get any votes in 1998 or 2008 for even better late-season finishes after a trade.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 04:02 (six years ago) link
Johnson finished 7th and Sabathia 5th in CY voting in those years (and both picked up MVP votes too).
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 September 2017 05:26 (six years ago) link
Votto
― timellison, Thursday, 28 September 2017 05:41 (six years ago) link
CC's a good one... there's an argument to be made that he was the best pitcher in the league (led in fWAR though it was really tight that year) but he was so much more dominant after the trade it's like his first half was completely thrown out the window. is that supposed to happen anyway? it's the NL MVP so whatever he did in the AL that year is moot?
that's just a bummer imo. what if it was the other way around, and he had his 1.65 ERA in cleveland and his 3.83 in milwaukee? would the guy who led the league in WAR and IP receive a single vote?
― qualx, Thursday, 28 September 2017 07:00 (six years ago) link
er cy, not mvp
(I know, adjustments--you either accept them or remain skeptical)
*Columbus crashed the Flat Earth Society around 1989*
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:17 (six years ago) link
Once again, I'll spell this out for you, even though I've said so numerous times; I remain skeptical of Coors Field adjustments, not all adjustments. So do many other people. But if you're convinced Charlie Blackmon is a significant step forward over the Vinny Castillas and Dante Bichettes of yesterday, great, have at it. But seriously, give your rote idiotic compulsion to respond to me a rest.
Beyond having Fangraphs bookmarked and linking to trade-rumour tweets, do you contribute anything to these threads?
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:31 (six years ago) link
(xposts) Oops--was looking at the league line for Sabathia and Johnson, rather than their totals for those years.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:32 (six years ago) link
I'm somewhat familiar with baseball analysis of the last 25 years, you turkey
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:37 (six years ago) link
remember everyone, reduce all Rockies players' value to zero. It's E-Z!
Clemenza's Utilitarian Null Taxonomy
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:40 (six years ago) link
Yes, that's what skepticism entails, as opposed to starry-eyed faith in whatever Fangraphs tells you--I'm saying reduce all Rockies players' value to zero. That's exactly what I'm saying.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:49 (six years ago) link
Supposedly you used to do stand-up comedy, too, and I can't get my head around that, either. From all evidence here, funny internet spellings with lots of extra z's seem to be the beginning and end of your comic imagination.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 11:52 (six years ago) link
possibly
also, as ever, idgaf
This, on the other hand, from the AL MVP thread the other day, is comical--the way you're forever trying to convince us you don't care about stuff you care very deeply about. It's like the movie-poll threads, where you trot out your Hamlet routine every time about how you won't be voting and then wait around for people to beg you to vote. Endlessly entertaining.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:07 (six years ago) link
imagine how much time he's gonna have in retirement
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 28 September 2017 12:22 (six years ago) link
but he was so much more dominant after the trade it's like his first half was completely thrown out the window. is that supposed to happen anyway? it's the NL MVP so whatever he did in the AL that year is moot?
He had a strange year. He had a few horrible starts in April and finished the month with a 7.88 ERA. From then on he was great -- his second *highest* monthly ERA was 2.44 in May. Even so, he did seem to find a new gear toward the end of the year (especially starting a few times on three days rest).
Obviously that first month still counts but it's not as if the move to the NL jumpstarted his season and turned him into a different pitcher. He was MVP/CY-level great in the AL that year too, minus the one bad month.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 September 2017 13:42 (six years ago) link
That said, the voters probably weren't thinking that way when listing him on their MVP/CY ballots (he was only getting "credit" for what he did in the NL). These cases happen rarely enough that I'm not losing sleep over them, but nobody can even decide what the regular MVP criteria are (best player? best player on a winning team?) so I don't expect clear guidelines for multi-league players either.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 28 September 2017 13:48 (six years ago) link
Lou Brock's another famous case, although he did play 2/3 of the season with the Cardinals in '64--also the same league before and after the trade. (Going to another league, like JDM, those are trickier.) Brock only finished 10th in '64 for a .348/.387/.527/146+ line with St. Louis, which suggests the writers were, consciously or otherwise, giving some weight to his mediocre start with the Cubs.
― clemenza, Thursday, 28 September 2017 15:52 (six years ago) link
i'm going to vote for Paul Goldschmidt without looking up the numbers.
― Bee OK, Friday, 29 September 2017 00:08 (six years ago) link
he has the Good Face, actually as do Bryant and Stanton
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 00:38 (six years ago) link
anthony recker for mvp
― mookieproof, Friday, 29 September 2017 01:23 (six years ago) link
feel like we might now need a 'best hitter' award though. call it the ted. and hurry so we can give it to votto several times before he returns to his people in the great white north
― mookieproof, Friday, 29 September 2017 01:26 (six years ago) link
"Mr. Votto, how does it feel to finally win a Ted""Looks like we're having a real Ted Talk here huh""Haha yes, but please answer the question""Not one of those Tedx talks, this is the real thing, a Ted Talk"
― qualx, Friday, 29 September 2017 01:45 (six years ago) link
I'd almost vote Stanton just for how breathtaking his home runs have been. #59 tonight was wow.
― Michael F Gill, Friday, 29 September 2017 03:21 (six years ago) link
there's the Hank Aaron Award, but isn't it purely statistical?
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 11:30 (six years ago) link
it's not, and Votto has won it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hank_Aaron_Award
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 11:33 (six years ago) link
Cameron:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/there-is-no-obvious-nl-mvp/
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 12:26 (six years ago) link
goldschmidt might slump his way out of the MVP race. .192/.268/.342 in september
― k3vin k., Friday, 29 September 2017 14:27 (six years ago) link
Definitely. I thought he was the perfect choice a few weeks ago--solid numbers old and new (headed for an 8-WAR season, maybe), team leader, underrated, surprise contender--then he checked out.
― clemenza, Friday, 29 September 2017 14:33 (six years ago) link
i think the top five will be something like:
StantonGoldschmidtBlackmonVottoBryant
maybe not in that exact order, but I suspect Stanton comes out on top.
― nomar, Friday, 29 September 2017 15:58 (six years ago) link
Arenado's defensive dazzle and RBI total might put him over Blackmon, deservedly or not
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/charlie-blackmon-would-be-a-deserving-mvp/
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 16:29 (six years ago) link
i have no idea who should win but i think stanton will win
― na (NA), Friday, 29 September 2017 16:52 (six years ago) link
due to stat-nerd vote splitting
you mean like the guys who run baseball
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 16:55 (six years ago) link
are you saying i'm wrong?
― na (NA), Friday, 29 September 2017 17:10 (six years ago) link
i'm saying that's a bad adjective
"stat nerds" like HRs, hence Stanton
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 September 2017 17:32 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Sunday, 1 October 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link
My personal choice would be Rendon because he does everything beautifully. It seems they are all pretty similar statistically; so for me, it comes down to which I've had the most pleasure watching and in order it would be: Rendon, Votto and Stanton.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 1 October 2017 04:00 (six years ago) link
Stanton couldn't get 60, still very awesome.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 1 October 2017 22:29 (six years ago) link
"Oct. 1, 2017, right behind home plate--I was there. It was the hardest-hit single of the Statcast era...at the time, anyway, it's not anymore...point is, is was very exciting--the ball just rocketed off Stanton's bat."
I just went to cast a (just slightly ambivalent) vote for him, but I guess I voted for Goldschmidt when the thread first went up. So when the final results are posted, deduct one from him and add one to Stanton's column. Votto won't win, but if he does, great.
― clemenza, Sunday, 1 October 2017 22:37 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Monday, 2 October 2017 00:01 (six years ago) link
None of you deserve Rendon.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 October 2017 00:27 (six years ago) link
Stanton stopped at 59, so it's Arenado's for the taking!
When you include pitchers, Goldschmidt is no longer in the NL top 10 by either version of WAR.
― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 October 2017 00:44 (six years ago) link