2017 ALCS - New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

"CC smiles in dugout" would be a great daily news cover to be sure

can't imagine anyone i'd want to have up less than fucking ellsbury right now

yeah was going to say it was game over when Ellsbury came up, could see it in Giles' body language.

i'm taking classes about body language in my mba so now i know about these things.

Giles threw a lot of pitches to get just four outs.

this'll be the first ever soft toss world series

Make that five outs. Point stands though!

I rewatched Marwin Gonzalez's throw a bunch of times this morning -- such an insanely great play that only gets better each time I see it.

HOUSTON JEFFREY MAIER

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 14, 2017

2h20 to play seven innings? It's a playoff miracle!

Verlander's got the good stuff tonight

fortunate to have verlander dealing tonight after giles goes so long last night

Imagine how good he'd be if he had been receptive to Jack Morris' advice!

hinch is dustying

More Verlander ...

He's anti-dustying. Dusty would bring in his 5th best reliever, then his 4th best, etc. unless it's a save situation. Hinch trusts only his closer.

93 strikes?

Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In play strikes:
Verlander 25-25-25-18

fuck him up tuves

why isn't he in the HOF yet idgi

terrible send!

gotta love chapman shitting the bed (now that he isn't a a cub)

Great ending!

yeah that was a bad send, sanchez absolutely has to make that play. inexcusable

Sending Altuve was a bit insane but considering the game situation it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time (I'm sure the usual sites will calculate this).

that's the legend of future hall of famer jose altuve

did you notice how he quickly swooped dusty baker's small child out of the way before completing his slide

Not pictured: José Altuve #ALCS pic.twitter.com/TOKLY6kacD

— The Ringer (@ringer) October 14, 2017

AND he craned his neck to look at the damn ball after he rounded the bag.

Sending Altuve was a bit insane but considering the game situation it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time (I'm sure the usual sites will calculate this).

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, October 14, 2017 7:23 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah i would be very interested in seeing the math for this, if you come across a breakdown please link

it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time

Is it? Runner on 3rd with 1 out in a tie game is a pretty good situation, isn't it?

OK, I did a quick calculation using the run expectation data here and came up with 18 percent. That's assuming that each team has equal chances of winning if it goes to extras (which isn't really true -- the home team would have a slight advantage) and not taking into account the pitchers (e.g. the difficulty of scoring off Chapman in the 9th compared to what the run expectation table would tell you).

i'm not sure how you got that from that table? but then again, i'm not sure what was meant by "it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time" either, heh

that table does show, though, that the probability of scoring at least one run when runners are at second and third with one out is about 69%, nice. so if altuve would have held up at third, as he should have, they still would have had a 69% nice chance of scoring and winning the game.

After visiting Theodore Roosevelt's birthplace site, I saw the last 2 innings at a gay sports bar and yelled quite loudly at the end, annoying the Stankee rooters.

I see now that I read a number wrong from that table. But you're right, with x23 and one out there's a 69% chance of winning the game in the ninth, and a 31% chance that the game goes to extras (and I gave them a 50% chance of winning in extras). With a similar calculation for sending the runner (if he makes it you win, if he doesn't you have x2x and two outs and can win in the ninth or in extras) and now the calculation gives 59%! So yeah, it's a terrible gamble because you have to be safe more than 59% of the time for it to pay off.

If there had been two outs, it's a simpler calculation and the break even point is 28%.

lol jesus, i knew the outcome before i watched the final play but i thought while seeing it, "oh dammit they got him..."

i'd be curious to see the play from a different angle, maybe sanchez was a little bit far up and altuve could have sneaked past him anyway?

i'm not sure how you got that from that table? but then again, i'm not sure what was meant by "it's a good gamble even if he makes it about 20% of the time" either, heh

he's saying that statistically there is some inflection point where the risk of giving up an out by being thrown out is outweighed by the potential benefit of scoring immediately

i'd be curious to see the play from a different angle, maybe sanchez was a little bit far up and altuve could have sneaked past him anyway?

― nomar, Saturday, October 14, 2017 9:07 PM (two minutes ago)

ha no he'd have to have jumped over him i think, he was beat by so much

If Sanchez caught it cleay he’d have enough time to get an early start on taxes before Altuve arrives. And Sanchez’s tax situation is complicated

cleanly

on live view i didnt see Sanchez's drop and thought Altuve had eluded the tag

yeah i just re-watched it, Sanchez could have caught the ball, turned around, sucker-punched Gonzalez, served a suspension, then returned in time to tag him.

Didn't take long for Posnanski to get his complete game.

The Verlander Game: Astros' New Ace Delivers Dominance While Embracing Team's Analytical Approach (Verducci)

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/10/15/justin-verlander-astros-yankees-alcs

One day three years ago, in the middle of a down year in which he would post a 4.54 ERA for the Tigers, Verlander was called into the office of manager Brad Ausmus.

“I don’t see you throwing with conviction behind your pitches,” Ausmus said.

A surprised Verlander snapped back at him.

“I guarantee you can pick any pitch that I’ve thrown and I can tell you exactly what I was trying to do with it,” Verlander said.

The two men began to talk, and as they did, Ausmus figured out what truly was missing in his ace’s game: Verlander still was relying only on his instincts and observations to get people out, when an entire world of data was out there to help him. The conversation opened Verlander’s eyes and mind. He began seeking out pitch data, keeping his own hand-written statistics and notes, and visiting a pitching guru of modern data-based mechanics to learn about spin rates, release points and arm health.

When the Tigers traded Verlander to Houston Aug. 31, another world opened for Verlander. The Astros are one of the most forward-thinking, resourceful teams when it comes to analytics, and Verlander not only embraced it all, he also asked for more. The joke among the quants in the organization was that Verlander was the first guy to actually ask for more than the reams of information they already were crunching.

pic.twitter.com/oDONCsDFat

— Tangotiger (@tangotiger) October 15, 2017

Hey, I actually got it right! I see now that I didn't need to take in to account what would have happened in extra innings (irrelevant when considering this particular play, because the game ends if he scores, so you don't need to consider anything that would happen afterward).

The true break even point is certainly lower, because the chances of scoring a run off Chapman is lower than what's given in the standard table (much higher risk of a strikeout). So the break even point is probably between 40-50%, which is still a bad send.

tom uses comic sans nice

https://i.imgur.com/PSJkBhy.jpg

judge currently at 19 K in 37 PA

Pos pointed out that Judge is one short of the Yankees all-time record for 3K postseason games. The current record holder is Derek Jeter with 6.

he was 1-for-20 with four walks and 16 strikeouts in the five games against cleveland, which is frankly incredible

I'm sure it was the pitching, but NY just seems to swing at balls and take strikes

mostly I remember Julian Tavarez breaking his hand punching the phone box in the bullpen

i remember julian tavarez!

must be first franchise to win both league's pennants?

― Van Horn Street, Saturday, October 21, 2017 11:26 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

cards dodgers reds apparently

wait nvm i was thinking of willy taveras

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/nribztwbrq3jilw5qbmm.jpg

The great Astros playoff series I remember is their big match up against the Mets in 86. They played arguably the best extra inning playoff game ever in that series and it was the beginning of the legend of Billy Hatcher, who again in 1990 was a huge playoff hero for the Reds.

what a performance by former pirate great braves castoff charlie morton

― mookieproof, Sunday, 22 October 2017 03:44 (one hour ago) Permalink

Between the two of them, Morton and McCullers—two delicate arms whom many teams might not have trusted with postseason starts, or in Morton’s case, a multiyear contract—threw 65 curves in 108 pitches on Saturday, which was easily the highest-ever curveball usage rate (60.2 percent) in a single game. (According to Pitch Info data provided by David Appelman of FanGraphs, the highest previous single-game team curveball percentage in the pitch-tracking era was 52.5 percent, by the Dodgers on May 23, 2015, and no pitcher has ever relied on the curve as heavily in an outing of 50 or more pitches as McCullers did in Game 7.)

https://www.theringer.com/2017/10/22/16515788/houston-astros-beat-new-york-yankees-in-alcs-game-7

Man, I dunno, but watching McCullers throw 19 curveballs in a row makes you wonder whether everybody been doing this wrong for 150 (!) years

— Sam Miller (@SamMillerBB) October 22, 2017

just catching up on this game..... holy shit @ the bregman throw to mccann in the 5th

the courage, the trust, the execution whoeeee

and loooool at springer jumping over marwin for that catch! and marwin just leaning himself against the fence, like sheeeeeeeit

love Houston now. <3 <3 springer catching that last pop-up, holding his glove up with one hand and pointing with the other and shouting "LET'S GO!!"

https://d26dzxoao6i3hh.cloudfront.net/items/0o2i3a3s193R3Y2v311l/IMG_7286.jpg

http://www.mlb.com/images/3/6/0/259282360/102117_springer_gonzalez_med.gif

still can't believe 28 curveballs to finish the game

yikes, hope they can make it work pic.twitter.com/pKi0lJx02m

— Meg Rowley (@megrowler) October 22, 2017

https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/HmGPaIbuHXWTqX7sqhkRREcIHBE=/1000x0/filters:no_upscale%28%29/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9510335/Screen_Shot_2017_10_21_at_10.03.15_PM.jpg

my guess is altuve and JV could be co-MVPs

― Michael F Gill

That would have been my pick too. I know they did that for the '81 Dodgers in the World Series (three guys, I think)--maybe they don't do it for the LCS.