hall of fame, next vote...

I encourage the "Modern Era Committee" to put Marvin Miller in the Hall of Fame. His importance to the game ranks with Ruth and Robinson.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) November 6, 2017

beltran: will he get into the HOF/should he get into the HOF?

i'm thinking: eventually/probably, but i think he was definitely a bit of a compiler vs a dominant peak type. it also reminds me how Jim Edmonds definitely didn't deserve a one-and-done ballot fate.

neither did kenny lofton

meanwhile bernie "i'm actually not as good as them" williams managed to stick around for a couple years.

bernie hated that nickname at first but grew to love it

https://deadspin.com/carlos-beltran-did-it-all-1820401309

Beltran is 8th among CFs by JAWS

ie everybody ahead of him is in, several behind are too

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_CF.shtml

beltran's goodbye is worth reading: https://www.theplayerstribune.com/carlos-beltran-astros-retirement/

That's a really moving piece by Beltran -- the best thing I've ever read on TPT!

Beltran was still a very good player after his prime, and was productive across many different "eras" of baseball (offense-happy era c. 2000, the post-steroid slowdown era c. 2006, the pitching dominated years earlier in this decade, whatever the current three true outcomes era will be called). I know it doesn't show up in the statistics, but for me, that kind of adaptability strengthens his HOF case (which is important for a borderline candidate).

Considering his all-around game, Beltran should probably end up in the HOF. Beltran had a very well traveled career kinda like Sheffield in that category without the other baggage. Got to think Beltran would be a no doubter if he would have been a 'one club' career type player. Guy probably missed a couple hundred games to injuries over his career which is probably the only thing that kept him from 3000 hits.

injuries also cost him his speed and fielding earlier than they would have otherwise, turning them into negatives

Looks like his dWAR fell off after about age 32. I was thinking though he seemed to be still pretty good in right when he played for the Cardinals or at least he still had a good arm. It isn't too unusual for guys to move out of CF by that point in their career.

I thought it was pretty funny earlier this year when the Astros players had a ceremony for burying Beltran's glove earlier this year.

Odd enough, I saw a rumor story that Beltran has thrown his hat in the ring interested in managing the Yanks, which seems like a long shot, but you never know.

the veteran's committee ballot is out for the "Modern Baseball" era (1970-1987)

Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Marvin Miller
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Ted Simmons
Luis Tiant
Alan Trammell

Miller, Trammell, and Simmons imo

jay jaffe is doing a rundown here: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/10/hall-fame-modern-baseball-era-committee

i'm only vaguely familiar with simmons beyond his stats, having never seen him play, but this just strengthens his case

Simmons got just 3.7% of the vote in 1994, his only year on the BBWAA ballot. That may have had something to do with lingering resentment over the fact that in 1972, in the wake of former teammate Curt Flood's challenge to the Reserve Clause, he became the first playing holdout in baseball history, playing well into the season without a signed contract before the Cardinals gave in to his demands. College educated at the University of Michigan, he simply wasn't cut from the same cloth as the average major leaguer of his time. A 1978 Sports Illustrated profile by Ron Fimrite introduced him as the St. Louis Art Museum’s newest trustee, described his and wife Maryanne’s collection of early-eighteenth-century furniture, and summarized his early-career rebelliousness:

He was unyielding even when it became evident that his views did not sit well in a community as conservative as St. Louis. He denounced the Vietnam War and was outspoken in his contempt for the Nixon Administration. He allowed his hair to grow to his shoulders; that gave him a leonine look and earned him the nickname Simba ... At that time, he was a lion roaring his defiance.

i forgot that last week happened, sorry

Jaffe makes a strong case for Simmons in his HOF book. My recollection of how Simmons was treated while playing is "Good hitter, no defense." Jaffe says that just wasn't true--and indeed Simmons has nothing but +dWARs through his prime on Baseball Reference. He had the disadvantage of being contemporaneous with Bench, Carter, Fisk, and Munson.

My own sentimental choice for induction would be Tiant.

(And also, strictly in terms of defense, you had Sundberg and Boone, two of the greatest defensive catchers ever.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2018.shtml

playing w/ the sorting columns. it's interesting how high JPos is for pitchers relative to the rest of positions.

I remember it feeling that Raines going in this year was some sort of watershed moment for the electability of guys like mussina but I can totally imagine just vlad and hoffman going in this year and chipper being... "forgotten" isn't the right word, and he's 100% going in, but it doesn't feel like there's a clamor to celebrate his career like there was for raines or 1st ballot guys like pedro etc

also ballot of 2021 is going to be straight trash

https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2021.shtml

You mean the guys who debut in 2021? Yeah, first ballot in a while with no viable candidates. Hudson, Buehrle, and Torii Hunter are the best of them, and they have zero chance between them. If there's still backlog, that would be the year for someone deserving who's been made to wait. Larry Walker's window, unfortunately, closes the year before. Mussina, Schilling, and Kent will still be on the ballot.

(I mean, Mussina and Schilling may already be in by then.)

I could totally see schilling falling off the ballot this year

I think that'd be terrible if he does. PEDs are one thing--you can argue about that all day, and I think there's room for a difference of opinion there (subsiding now anyway)--but I don't think anyone was ever kept out for being a jerk. Dick Allen, maybe, and the more you know about him, the more you realize his alleged jerkiness had a lot to do with racism.

uh, we can probably say the same about schilling tbh

Possibly--I don't know. The thing he said about sportswriters was creepy, and had some really stupid imagery.

Schilling Is a racist let’s not worry about the asshole part

I will say that I'm totally contradicting something I posted on the greatest-filmmaker thread the other day:

I won't think for a second about what kind of person I'm voting for. I don't know if Polanski (who may or may not be on my list--the old peak value vs. career value question) would be the only one where that's even an issue; most of the people I won't know anything anyway, and I hadn't planned on a James Toback vote. I could see grappling with that if it involved flying someone in to receive a state honour, like the Legion of France, but not with a message-board poll.

The Baseball HOF isn't an abstract thing--you get flown into Cooperstown and you make a speech. To be consistent, then, I'll amend my comment above: it won't be terrible if Schilling drops off, and any voter who objects to him on non-baseball grounds is justified in doing so (although I'd personally grit my teeth and vote for him).

One thing I always tried to make clear is that my fence-sitting on PED isn't a moral issue; it's uncertainty over how much they influenced a player's performance. I've never argued that PED players should be kept out for some perceived moral deficiency.

(Polanski, not to be confused with Posnanski.)

Will Scott Rolen and Andruw Jones be one and done this year? Do we even know for sure what happened to Jones after the age of 30 (besides "he got fat and stopped caring")?

Without any slam dunk candidates this year (besides Bonds and Clemens of course) I don't expect many unfair one and dones, but Rolen was always underrated and wouldn't expect that to change on the HOF ballot.

I'm not even sure that Thome will be elected this year. If Bagwell and Piazza didn't go in on the first ballot ...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPF2hiVVQAAfo7-.jpg:small

more than 10 worthy options, there.

Do we even know for sure what happened to Jones after the age of 30 (besides "he got fat and stopped caring")?

i didn't follow baseball much when this was happening. he only played more than 100 games once after he turned 30. was he just injured?

Heartfelt open letter from HOFer Joe Morgan to BBWA voters, imploring us not to put steroid users in the Hall. First, they're already in. Second, so is Selig, elected by HOFers' veterans committee. If mgrs. & commish benefited from the era and are now HOFers, why not the serfs?

— Claire Smith (@MzCSmith) November 21, 2017

has this ever been posted?

https://baseballpastandpresent.com/2012/07/19/hall-fame-circle/

it's a fun read, trying to identify the top 50 inner-circle HOFers via a vote back in 2012. it was apparently organized by graham womack, who somehow managed to not include his own name anywhere on his own website

I've participated in two or three of Graham's poll, including that one. I think he culled my name from regular posters on High Heat Stats (a site I eventually lost interest in).

freshly said

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-hall-of-fame-isnt-worth-our-time/

heh, yeah that's where i got the link posted

the hof is only discussed because it's the dead time of the baseball year, especially when the hot stove isn't active. we are bored

If you're not not-interested in the HOF, some research on living inductees vs. dead ones (the subtext being Morgan's letter and changing attitudes toward PEDs).

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_living_hall_of_fame/

Jaffe's been doing these at SI

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/28/edgar-martinez-hall-fame-ballot

Ballot #28, from Bill Livingston (https://t.co/GhfMy0OgAe), who submitted a blank ballot last year, which is different from abstaining. In the Tracker: https://t.co/EHQYbIMnWo pic.twitter.com/L9FdSqM8Xg

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) December 7, 2017

wow, Jim Thome is doing extremely well

612 HR w/ no smoking needle

bill apparently forgot that manny and kerry wood also played for the indians

yeah i figured Thome would get in but i wasn't sure if he would get in the first year. Surprised that he's leading Chipper even at this early stage, though they could easily swap places considering how many ballots remain.

Vizquel is going to be the new Jack Morris. He'll last the full ten years, his advocates will cherry-pick weird combinations of numbers to argue his case, and he may climb as high as ~60%, but--correctly, I'd say--he won't go in.

i'm not sure what they'll point to besides the 11 gold gloves. he was a below-league-average hitter in 22 of his 24 seasons, and anyone who really believes in defensive metrics is going to have to deal with the less savory numbers as well

not remotely an Ozzie Smith

(xpost) The first thing they'll point to seems obvious (not me talking here; I think Jaffe also constructed the case for, before easily dismantling it): the near-2,900 hits, most for a shortstop (at shortstop) after Wagner. Next, I would think, would be his stolen bases. He'll become the only 2,900+ hit/400+ SB/11 Gold-Glove-winning shortstop ever.

Obviously, zero context at all. (Little things like the non-existence of the Gold Glove 100 years ago.) As you point out, all those singles didn't mean a whole lot without much of anything to go with them (and in a massively high-offense era besides).

As predicted:

Then there’s Vizquel, whose 45.3 WAR is dwarfed by the 76.5 of Ozzie Smith, the shortstop he is most compared to. Sorry. You can’t tell me there was that much of a difference between these two superb defensive shortstops, especially when Vizquel hit .272 lifetime to Ozzie’s .262 and his 2,877 hits are the third most of any shortstop in history.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/war-shouldn-heavily-emphasized-baseball-hof-voting-article-1.3684618

Clearly the writer here verges on caricature. My only point was that this drumbeat will linger for the next 10 years, just as it did with Morris.

vizquel had one season with more than 3.5 fWAR, ozzie had ten.

is 3.5 cherrypicked? you bet your ass