North Korea

westward?

UPDATE: Office of Japanese PM confirms the North Korean ballistic missile has landed in the Sea of Japan, exclusive economic zone.

— News_Executive (@News_Executive) November 28, 2017

It's now Japanese property, I guess.

sorry. brain fart. eastward would be into ocean waters. my mistake.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPvghdWVoAAF96t.jpg

Basically, they're launching them straight up, even a bit to the West countering Earth rotation, so that they don't stray too far from telemetry range. Any ballistic missile capable of travelling 6700 km (as Hwasong-14) is also capable of going of travelling a couple thousand km straight up. Anything that reached 2000 km altitude would take at least 10 minutes to climb that far and 10 minutes to fall.

this world sucks

I can't blame NK. Look what not having a credible deterrent did for Saddam.

in this world i take a moment to google the distance from earth to the moon, in km, just in case

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DPv1UfRXUAE-7eG.png

the question is what happens when they get fully capable nukes and then do something nobody wants them to do or ask for something nobody is prepared to give them.

They are capable enough now. But there wasn’t a good military solutio even if we went back in time and asked that question. Also important to remember that China and Russia became nuclear states and it’s probably good that our negotiating position wasn’t as unrealistic as our current “denuclearize” terms w DPRK.

Well, Russia going nuclear dictated the terms of US foreign policy for almost half a century, and in that conflict we came as close to nuclear Armageddon as ever before, so there's that.
But assuming NK behaves like every other nuclear power, more or less, then a nuclear NK won't be any different than a non-nuclear NK. They'll just keep to themselves and do their thing.

DPRK engages in a fair amount of military provocation and saber rattling. These are likely to continue as part of 'doing their thing', but so far these have only led to minimal bloodshed outside its own borders.

Pretty much. The audience for the launches, the saber rattling, and the reports of belicosity from the U.S., is the North Korean people.

Kim et al knows that they launch a nuke and a dozen will fly back. Their intention is to a) maintain domestic war footing propaganda, and b) deter a preemptive American strike. Game theory wise, its a pretty stable situation so long as NK maintains deterrence, and outsiders don't try to start the coup ending the rule of Kim and his allied elites. It's a pity for those trapped within.

It's obvious that the Pentagon is not so keen on preemptive strikes. Plus, major parts of the defense budget are predicated on hostilities with this imp.

genocidal rhetoric https://t.co/WTFpvMYSGl

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) November 29, 2017

Holodomor-ica.

Xpost Sanctions on that level would be indefensibly evil and definitely start a world war.

Sanctions on that level would be an act of war.

DPRK would call it an act of war and people wouldn’t realize the serious level of escalation we were at because they’ve been calling various things an “act of war” for years now.

dprk continues to develop icbm nuclear capability juche military first ideology
increasing free market liberalization on the dl
u.s. imperialist saber rattling
everything is fine
20 years later
we're all
friends

is there a thread for missile defense? i don't really want to start a new one, but this NYT article about how a recent SCUD missile from Yemen almost certainly was NOT shot down by Saudi defense batteries - contrary to what was claimed at the time - reminded me of my general anxiety about how unlikely it is that a nuclear weapon could successfully be intercepted, especially given the amount of time that would elapse before a countershot would even be fired (since the defender would probably want to be absolutely certain that it wasn't a false alarm before launching a counterattack).

my (obviously and admittedly limited ) understanding is that the "star wars"/SDI defense system was deeply flawed and basically a complete failure despite massive investment. have things changed since then?

dprk continues to develop icbm nuclear capability juche military first ideology
increasing free market liberalization on the dl
u.s. imperialist saber rattling
everything is fine
20 years later
we're all
friends

― XxxxxxxXxxxxxxxxXxxxx (dylannn), Wednesday, 29 November 2017 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

eating plums
out of the icebox
so sweet and
so cold
delicious

depends who you ask, Karl.

xp

Hush! The fact that the SDI missile defense is a deeply flawed, massively expensive complete failure is classified information which must be kept from our enemies.

SDI is probably a complete failure compared to its initial goal of permitting a US nuclear first strike against the Soviet Union. There would be way too much radar clutter in the commies retaliatory strike from first/second stage debris for targeting, and it isn't difficult to add indistinguishable decoys to the payloads. Plus building bullet to hit another bullet is just intrinsically hard.

Against NK, there's a chance that the redundancy of launch phase and midcourse interceptors would work against a single launch. Which is why if I were NK, my retaliation would already be sitting in a basement somewhere in LA or NY.

On the other hand, military research boondoggles are how we fund a lot of basic science and engineering education in the US.

Another data point: Saudi Arabia's upgraded Patriot missiles failed to intercept Houthi launched ballistic missile in 5 out of 5 launches.

When not operated by US crews, the Patriot and its descendants perform poorly, it’s true.

military research boondoggles are how we fund a lot of basic science and engineering education in the US.

which makes them sort of not boondoggles? No more so than that fusion reactor that 20 some odd countries are building in the south of France or wherever

you mean ITER? not a boondoggle.

Buck Turgidson lives

Using plausible estimates, I find that (under optimistic assumptions) 87% of western pundits are functionally insane https://t.co/NZ12E2IgfL by @kevinrogerjames pic.twitter.com/ydbiRmvRr7

— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) December 6, 2017

oof. i guess i'm glad @kevinrogerjames only has about a dozen followers on twitter

the thin line between satire and reality in dr strangelove is quickly dissolving

it was always mighty thin... the only reason the film is a comedy is they tried to write it 'straight' and kept laughing.

not sure how substantive a shift this actually is but this seems positive to me

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said tonight the U.S. would be willing to enter negotiations with North Korea without requiring that it agree beforehand to give up its nuclear weapons program.

— NPR (@NPR) December 12, 2017

Some disagreements on that. Interesting back and forth in this thread from NK watchers.

Don't strain yourself too hard looking for change in NK policy from Tillerson. 1) Nothing he's said is new for the US position, and 2) nobody believes Tillerson speaks for Trump, not least NK

— Van Jackson (@WonkVJ) December 12, 2017

FFS

White House says not right time for North Korea talks, despite Tillerson overture https://t.co/rmT79dOTXg pic.twitter.com/rGEdw9c4SL

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) December 13, 2017

While we are playing, people starve

there's been for the past few years, a disagreement on how much north korea is suffering, with people like lankov on one side N Korea and the myth of starvation arguing that upwards of 70% of people are making money in private market ventures / food is being exported to china / reforms in agriculture have fixed a few lingering problems -- but even he agrees that most people are chronically malnourished and some regions of the country have remained basically as shitty as they were a decade before-- and aid workers, who still report that people are starving.

i hope it comes across on this thread but i'm sympathetic to north korea. i think sanctions should be lifted. the u.s. trying to starve out the kim regime isn't working and is unnecessarily cruel.

but at the same time the government of the dprk has a history of using starvation as a weapon against the north korean people. In North Korea, hunger isn’t a function of production, but of state policy -- so, like lankov is right and things are improving, for example, people are being allowed to tend their own private plots, but those harvests have often been seized by the state. and these private plots are only sorta tolerated Farmers Baffled by Order Reversal / North Korea orders all privately cultivated crops to be cut down even though they're feeding at least half of all north koreans: State policy controls how much food is imported, how much is spent on things like fertilizer and machinery, who can grow what and where, what can be sold, how much is seized from those who grow and sell it, where the harvest goes once it’s collected, who gets a ration and how much, and how effectively foreign aid agencies can deliver aid. -- the border with china being more tightly sealed is also a factor, and also the government going after remittances (and also sanctions trying to hit remittances, too).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGinGQrofos

not sure if it's been posted before, but a great series of blog posts on a couple of friends who traveled by train from Vienna to Pyongyang. The photos as they travel from Siberia through North Korea down to Pyongyang are fantastic.

that is super old

p sure we talked abt it a few yrs ago and posted the link

thats rly the best way to see the real nk but very difficult to get in thru there especially now

https://www.ft.com/content/21a0407e-eadd-11e7-bd17-521324c81e23

The last New Yorker piece where the guy had gone a few times in previous years and returned not long after some incendiary Trump tweets was really good. Also recounts meeting with NK diplomats in New York.

love that blog of photos of the trip from austria to pyongyang, great stuff

Looking at that football game above, I wondered briefly which colour uniform was the DPRK until I saw the women in red looming almost a head taller than the Japanese team. That's not a typical characteristic of Koreans compared to Japanese people is it?

South Koreans tend to be slightly taller than Japanese people

I assume this applies to healthy North Koreans, as well. The North Korean men I’ve met have mostly all been around 5’8”-10”, with very few being taller and bigger (fatter)

The height of the North Korean women I’ve met has varied a lot more, from 5’0” to 5’8”

Tall Asians: C or D?

i want to say something on this north korea thread about oil shipments. i think the situation is interesting not because it shows the chinese are violating sanctions--maybe they are but not with ship-to-ship transfers of refined fuel probably--but the power of the informal economy where i assume this oil is going and the problem of enforcing any of these sanctions. all along the road, it's been the same situation anyways, where the kim regime gets what they need and forces the rest of the population to fend for themselves.

there are much easier ways to violate sanctions-- i mean they could have just ran ships to nk harbors and sold oil and then denied it, too. but there's a pipeline that's exempt from sanctions (because they can't turn it off without damaging it) that runs from the liaodong peninsula to sinuiji and north korean refineries. ship-to-ship transfers of refined petroleum sounds like smuggling-- chinese authorities just seized a few days before this a shipment of smuggled fuel meant for ship-to-ship transfers.

russia is far less enthusiastic about sanctions and still probably aren't thrilled about the huge amount of smuggling by russian ships -- but it's proof i guess that there's big money in smuggling oil right now, especially as sanctions hit. the price of oil in north korea has risen which makes smuggling profitable. if china is defying sanctions they'd be sending it thru the pipeline or running ships. oil is still moving but it's harder for people working in the burgeoning market economy to get it, if the state is getting the small supply, and they've got money to spend on fuel from chinese profiteers, or russian ones.

with established smuggling routes + evidence of a huge operation conducted by smugglers to bring in refined petroleum, it's harder than you might think to shut down fuel smuggling. when you're talking the chinese northeast + dprk + russian far east, lots of people trying to make money off the situation, deep deep corruption... it's hard to say, you know, just stop the boats and enforce sanctions! southern europe has a problem with organized crime bringing in oil from isis, even.