Democratic (Party) Direction

the only republicans left are _college republicans_.

It's Chads all the way down

Dems continue to massively overperform in special elections, flipping a state senate seat in Wisconsin today in a district that went hard for Trump in Nov 16.

TBH I'm not sure there's much the Democrats winning these elections have in common, besides being Democrats.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 17 January 2018 04:21 (thirteen hours ago) Permalink

The common thread is the involvement of new grass roots groups (and notably NOT the party) who are willing to knock doors and make calls for just about any democrat in any seat anywhere in the country, from DSA members to centrists. I'm curious to see how this is going to play out in 2018 -- special elections are one at a time so you can martial resources from around the country for a single race. When you have hundreds of races at the same time it gets more complicated, but you will also have a lot more interest.

Lol yeah Simon it was pretty hilarious to watch all the same people that were hysterical last week going "OPRAH 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!" dismissing Chelsea Manning by saying she "wasn't qualified." give me a fucking break

x-post: It went pretty well on election day in 2017.

yeah I see no reason not to assume a massive Dem wave

Chelsea can do what she wants and say what she will. If she runs a good race, she'll earn her votes. Why do so many people hate democracy? (Apart from the gawdawful mess it always seems to make of things.)

yeah I see no reason not to assume a massive Dem wave

for now. a lot can happen in 11 months, though.

I generally assume one too, but the asterisk I am attaching is that what has happened so far, including election day 2017, depended in part on the work and money of out-of-state volunteers. Even election day 2017 had a very small number of elections compared to what election day 2018 will have, as I'm sure our resident U.S. American Politics expert Frederik B is aware.

sorry to be the guy mentioning war again, but all bets are off if trump realizes that a war is the best way to rally support for his party in the short-term

I know a bunch of New Yorkers who helped out in key districts in the VA elections, for example. They will not be able to do the same for the dozens of times as many important contested elections in 2018, although as I said above, there will be more interest and hence more volunteers. Good strategic planning will be needed as far as which seats are best to target.

You don't have to be any kind of expert to note that Dems have over performed when there was one special election, when there were a bunch of them at the same time, in local elections nobody cares about, in big elections everyone cares about. I can't see the evidence for it depending on out-of-state volunteers, it seems fairly locally rooted all over the country?

It was definitely heavily dependent on organizations like swing left, indivisible, code blue, etc.

flippable focuses specifically on house nd local swing districts that are most worth your time and dedication, even has a function that locates the nearest swing district near you.

https://flippable.org/

It's been absolutely inspiring to follow those kinds of organizations from afar, but they aren't the whole story anymore. I'm just saying, the signs so far point to a wave that it has a life of it's own, where even the most local school board election is seeing a wave of interest.

“Lol yeah Simon it was pretty hilarious to watch all the same people that were hysterical last week going "OPRAH 2020!!!!!!!!!!!!" dismissing Chelsea Manning by saying she "wasn't qualified." give me a fucking break”
― flappy bird, Wednesday, January 17, 2018

I think by “same people” we mean “people who don’t actually exist/something we didn’t see”. I never had a sense that the Oprah thing was real. Some people said “Oprah for President” as a corny way to say they liked her awards show speech and then it started to get covered like it was a real thing. “The Hill” or Politico may have run a headline that was like “anonymous Dem donor says “sure, why not?’” but you know...

what are you talking about? i know a dozen people in my life that literally said those things.

yeah it was everywhere for a hot minute

The same people who were unequivocally enthusiastic about Oprah as a presidential candidate are now also critical of Manning’s lack of qualifications for the Senate? I guess it’s not impossible. I mean it definitely runs the other way at least.

yeah i mean i talked to all these people. in person. it was really disorienting. but she's running in my state, and i will say i talked to even more people who are THRILLED to get the chance to vote for Chelsea, and who find the idea of an Oprah presidency horrifying.

i was just at the gas station and they've installed these monitors that play little entertainment/news/advertising clips (like one about how dippin dots is going into cryogenics) and while i was waiting for my gas to pump it showed a clip w/ a young woman talking about oprah's speech at the golden globes and speculation about her running for president 3 times.

iirc the word of the day was venturesome and also they're selling bags of salt inside the gas station

Gotta get your salt somewhere, tis the season

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2018/01/Shift2016.jpg&w=1484

Oprah came from the poorest state in the country to build and run an international empire, seems like that should count for something

Oprah has many admirable qualities and talents. She's smart. She has a lot of business acumen and experience. She has no practical experience of governing. These make her poorly qualified for holding the highest political office in the nation.

I agree that compared to Trump, she'd do a much, much better job, but she'd still rely heavily on the quality of the advice she receives and have insufficient background against which to judge conflicting advice from her advisors.

The difference between her and Trump is that Trump is also not smart and has no business acumen (other than good instincts for self-promotion and psychological warfare).

xp what does "shifted to GOP by 24 points, flipped to Dems" mean?

presumably it was held by an independent

Oprah and Manning could maybe run for city council seats.

for now. a lot can happen in 11 months, though.

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, January 17, 2018 12:41 PM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Trump claims he'll spend 4-5 days a week helping Republicans win 2018 raceshttps://t.co/aYKYvML1uJ

— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) January 17, 2018

we're going to be ok KM

Goody! I bet they can't wait! xpost

yes, but the question we can't take for granted:

does trump know how many days there are in a week?

he uses KFC thighs for help

some post blogger reporting trump's reflecting on the 2002 midterms & holding his breath for a terrorist attack

Were it to happen, I doubt it would rebound to the GOP or Trump's favor this time, despite my never doubting the stupidity of human behavior.

yeah, i posted something about that on the politics thread, i think (they're all starting to blend together). a terrorist attack doesn't concern me so much as trump manufacturing his own crisis (a war in north korea, for example) for political gain

There have been multiple terrorist attacks under Trump. A man shot and killed 58 people in Las Vegas. A man driving a truck mowed down dozens of people in NYC. Another man killed a counter protester in Charlotte. It’s not a matter of debate, to me, that these were all acts of terror.

I'm going to go full on hermit conspiracy theorist if there's a dirty bomb in downtown LA using "North Korean" or "Iranian" nuclear material, smuggled in with the assitance Mexican cartels.

there have also been successful ISIS attacks under Trump (or just one? Stuyvesant truck)- I'm with Karl, I'm spooked that he'll fuck with North Korea.

oh yeah you mentioned that, yeah what I meant is even if Trump or the public at large only acknowledges terrorism as = Muslims, there was one. he doesn't seem very focused or concerned about ISIS

besides, ISIS never called him a dotard

yeah i bet trump's got some nicknames for ISIS members anyway

uuuugh, i'm guessing trump's nicknames for ISIS members are the worst thing to hear in the entire world

more like iSISSIES, amirite?

niiiice

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/18/dan-lipinski-luis-gutierrez-jan-schakowsky-chicago-346479?lo=ap_b1

Corey Robin:

Remember that huge controversy last year when Bernie Sanders supported Heath Mello's mayoral bid in Nebraska, despite Mello's previous anti-choice votes and positions? Bad Bernie, bad bros, and all that.

Now the national Democrats are firmly backing Brad Ashford, who's running for Congress in Nebraska, even though Ashford voted for the two same bills in Nebraska that Mello did. One of Ashford's competitors is Kara Easton, a staunchly pro-choice candidate, who backs single-payer and free college, and has the support of local unions and other progressive groups.
Emily's List hasn't yet decided whom to support. A white guy with some anti-choice votes and the backing of the national Democrats or a solidly pro-choice woman who's also solidly progressive on other fronts.

This is just maddening, but this article details story after story of how the national Democrats are lining up against more progressive candidates locally.

https://theintercept.com/2018/01/23/dccc-democratic-primaries-congress-progressives/

The DNC keeps asking me for money. I keep ignoring them.

nb just to innoculate against drive-by ad homs against the authors here lee fang is the worst ok

In an era of regular wave elections — 2006, 2008, 2010, and onward — sustainable majorities may be elusive. The smartest play for the party that takes power, said Michael Podhorzer, political director for the labor federation AFL-CIO, is to seize the opportunity when a wave washes it into power, implement an aggressive agenda, and then defend it from the minority when the party is inevitably washed back out — much as Democrats did successfully with the Affordable Care Act, and as Republicans hope to do with tax cuts. It’s a strategy that means moving two or three steps forward and holding as many of those gains until power is reclaimed, then moving another two steps forward. But it’s only possible with candidates-turned-lawmakers ready to take bold action when they have the chance.

Prioritizing fundraising, as Democratic Party officials do, has a feedback effect that creates lawmakers who are further and further removed from the people they are elected to represent. In 2013, the DCCC offered a startling presentation for incoming lawmakers, telling them they would be expected to immediately begin four hours of “call time” every day they were in Washington. That’s time spent dialing for dollars from high-end donors.

Call it 'ad homs' at much as you like, Lee Fang is a lying piece of shit and I don't trust anything he writes.