hall of fame, next vote...

Johan Santana getting dropped like that is as much a joke as Trevor Hoffman getting in. i'm not going to suggest he deserved enshrinement but 2004-2008 he was Kershaw-level great.

One quick Thome story.
We were in Chicago, underground by their cage, just talking. After Chicago, we were headed to NY and Mussina was throwing game 1. Asked him what he had on him. He says, “Look hook, adjust heater” in the classic Thome voice. I just laughed. Who can do that?!

— Michael Young (@MikeyY626) January 24, 2018

i'm still a bit surprised McGriff hasn't received more support, whatever one thinks of his career he seems like the kind of player a lot of guys would throw their weight behind in opposition to alleged PED users. I imagine he'll get a decent increase in the 2019 voting for his final year on the ballot, since the decks have--if not cleared--slightly thinned out.

so the upcoming viable candidates who seem likely to make it -- we've got Halladay and Rivera in 2019. Jeter shows up for the 2020 results, then in 2022 it's A-Rod and Ortiz. We can assume that we'll have some tiresome PED grandstanding about A-Rod, and a bit about Ortiz perhaps (though I think he seems likely to get in before A-Rod at this point in time, I'm just going to assume the latter will be in purgatory for 7-8 years if not more.) Beyond that there will be a lot of debate about holdovers til the next wave retires.

Looked up Kenny Lofton's War on Baseball Reference and it is like 68.2. Dang...Tim Raines is 69.1.

Lmao!!! Pure gold right here. Love the Big Apple! pic.twitter.com/bNGySqTzEQ

— Chipper Jones (@RealCJ10) January 25, 2018

Vladimir Guerrero says he will wear an #Angels cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. He'll be the first player to do so. The Angels were founded in 1961.

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) January 25, 2018

boo

One entire country not happy at all about that.

I'm actually surprised McGriff has hung around on the ballot so long, in view of the fact Delgado didn't last for a second vote. I know you have to make a clear adjustment for era, but speaking as a Jays fan (who liked McGriff a lot), I just don't think he was as scary a hitter as Delgado, and Delgado retired early, before a clear decline phase, while McGriff declined for close to a decade.

Count me as someone who thinks Hoffman's selection, while shaky, isn't a joke. My guess is that, conservatively, he's one of the 10 greatest closers ever. So it comes down to how many closers you think should be in there: only one, or Rivera plus two or three more, or a few more than that. I'm okay with the latter.

I don’t think the depth of the talent pool for relief pitchers is such that ten inductees are warranted.

I want Rivera in there, Eckersley, Wilhelm, probably Gossage, probably Hoffman; Fingers very shaky, although having been there during his post-season heyday, I understand the pull he had on pre-sabermetric voters. Sutter not a chance, and Smoltz I think of as a starter. One day, I expect Kimbrel and/or Jansen to at least be a reasonable candidate.

So in a sense, I agree with you--fewer than 10. But I think Hoffman's one of them. (I know, Wagner. I'm giving Hoffman the antiquated bulk counting-stat bonus.)

To me, Rivera is clearly on a god tier, and then you might make an argument for a few other guys a tier below. But unless you manage to transcend the limitations of the position, relievers just don’t pitch enough to warrant anyone beneath that

kent tekulve or gtfo

The Closer is a con I hope expires before I do.

relievers like Hoffman are in strictly bc they've been arbitrarily given weight via a made-up stat. The difference between Joe Nathan and Hoffman or, fuck it, Tom Henke and Hoffman is strictly due to longevity. And in the case of relief pitchers of past eras, their frequency of usage. Hoffman got 600 plus saves because he wasn't out there for multiple innings here and there and he was not sent out in strictly tough situations. He'd be out there to get a final out or two and Hell's Bells would play and he'd seem impressive. Closing time in baseball is more like a hyped up wrestling entrance followed by a single takedown move, than it is a substantial pitching achievement.

Hoffman was a good relief pitcher of course.

I don’t think it is enough to just list the best relievers and say you want a certain number of them to be enshrined without acknowledging that relievers, as a position, are just not as important as other players

there is only one punter in canton

they're all punters if you ask me

kickers are actually probably a ok comparison for closers

You won't have to even think about the matter for at least 15-20 years, after Kimbrel and Jansen retire. And maybe not even then.

Always fascinated by the number of closers' jerseys I see at ballparks. I suppose people really love them.

They are often characters and pitching when the game ends, people know them. Just look at this list of dudes that would never get HOF mention, they are characters in a big way and good closers.

Al Hrabosky
Rod Beck
Rob Dibble
Fernando Rodney
Dan Quisenberry
Tug McGraw
Eric Gagne
Mike Marshall
Brad Lidge
Bobby Thigpen
Brian Wilson
Eddie Guardaudo
Bob Stanley

https://2.bp.blogspot.com/--je22AQa0A8/WSzZhD3LBxI/AAAAAAAAT0U/t4rWmvjBoEMBVEt0s74jmGfWM49a2wu-ACLcB/s1600/Scan0304.jpg

Great list. Jerk or not, Papelbon's a character. I think Sparky Lyle was, too...wrote a Ball Four imitation, in any event.

Excactly...these dudes are 'unique' and people remember them maybe more than someone business like and great like say Mike Mussina.

Vlad the Obscure:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/vladimir-guerreros-best-games-were-in-montreal-and-no-one-saw-them/

(Funny seeing Reggie on the least-watched list, but makes sense in the context of his prime being in Oakland.)

McGriff had a great season at age 38, he had two bad years after that and retired. His prime was more than ten years previous, but I wouldn't say he was declining for a decade. The fact is that he was never that great of a hitter, kind of a poor man's Rafael Palmeiro who was good every year, had longevity, but was rarely among the very best hitters in baseball. Bouncing between several teams never helps in HOF selections either.

Delgado *was* an elite hitter though, so yeah, his lack of support is a bit confusing.

It wasn't a straight line, no, but I think you can see its contours. If you divide the full-time part of his career into two blocks, '88-94 and '95-'02, the first block has OPS+ seasons of 144-165; the second block is five seasons of 106-125, with two good seasons (142 and 145) mixed in, but both at the lower end of what he did in the first block. The weird juncture for him was '93-'94; he has two of his greatest seasons with Atlanta, but the offensive boom starts and the game kind of passes him by.

I think Toronto's run of McGriff-Olerud-Delgado (did anyone else have the job temporarily in there?) at first base is one of the greatest for a single team ever. Not DiMaggio-Mantle or Williams-Yaz, but pretty great.

the BBWAA is actively conspiring to keep Curt Schilling out of the Hall of Fame, according to this Devin Nunes memo I just read

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) January 24, 2018

I've got no particular sympathies for Schilling, but it's a bit too late to keep the racists and general dickheads out of the HOF.

I’m down w people choosing to not vote for a dude who wants to see them hang.

Oops! I think I directly linked into my e-mail there...can a moderator please delete that post?

Thanks!

Here's a better link: Lloyd Moseby and Pedro into the Canadian Baseball HOF.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2018/02/01/pedro-martinez-and-lloyd-moseby-headed-to-canadian-baseball-hall-of-fame.html

I'm tempted to draw a parallel with Trump in the months leading up the election--seemingly doing everything humanly possible to ensure that he wouldn't be elected--but I'm really starting to think that this story won't have a similar ending.

http://sports.yahoo.com/curt-schilling-peddling-conspiracy-theories-surrounding-parkland-shooting-013811657.html

man. poor david wright.

look at the typeface: https://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/rodriguez-ivan

idgi

Oh, nothing to get, there’s just so much text that it’s so tiny and narrow! Compare it to say, babe ruth’s plaque.

New system from James ("I understand that I have overdone this, from a reader’s standpoint..."), with an emphasis on "high-quality seasons." It's behind the firewall, but here's the last paragraph.

So counting Carlos Beltran as an active player (because he was an active player last year), we have ten players who have more than 100 points, thus should be regarded as likely (though not certain) Hall of Famers, based on the high-quality seasons that they have already had: Carlos Beltran, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, Mike Trout and Joey Votto. That list really should be eleven, because Adrian Beltre ought to be on it as well. It's not an unusual number.

He more or less says Trout is already in.

What about Ohtani?

I suppose that new system is for hitters?

So far, but I'm sure he'll follow up with a piece on pitchers. The system is basically Win Shares + bonus points (for All-Star Games, MVPs, World Series teams, etc.; all the narrative stuff that influences voters)--"Augmented Win Shares"--which is then converted to HOF points. 60+ AWS, which has been done only 20 times--e.g., Mantle in '56--gets 25 points, 18 AWS gets 1 point. If he does pitchers, someone like Kluber would do better under the new system than the old one.

I think the system, just like the last one, is meant to be predictive, not necessarily evaluative--who will go in, not always who deserves to.

One of those 25-point seasons, by the way, is Buster Posey's 2012 (catcher + MVP + World Series win).

sorry to ask but does he discuss Yadi? i always think his case is overstated, not just by cardinal fans but also several other team's broadcasters, so i'm curious what puts him over the top for james

A little bit--a career box (113 HOF points, getting near the upper end of the gray area) and this:

"Our system thinks that Yadi is a very likely Hall of Famer. You may have the same opinion; you may have a different one. He’s got great defense, several .300 seasons, some meaningful power, and some championship teams."

I don't see him as a HOF'er either--maybe I've got the same blind spot towards catchers that voters have historically had (probably the biggest after third basemen).

i may just give too much weight to WAR, which probably doesn't fully account for all the things a catcher can do. but those same limitations would apply to other catchers too. even if yadi stays healthy and puts up 2-3 more decent seasons, he'll still barely crack the top 25 by WAR.

He's about the same place using JAWS. Of the 11 retired (Posey and Mauer are still active) non-HOF'ers ahead of him, Jaffe's book sold me on Ted Simmons, and I wouldn't even have a problem with Munson, who has a bWAR of 5.6 per 650 plate appearances (although he was clearly in decline when the crash happened). Otherwise, don't think I'd add anybody.

Anyway, before long, he's offering me a bet: $25, and I give him 4-1 odds, that Scherzer doesn't make the HOF even with a third Cy Young.
― clemenza, Thursday, 13 July 2017

The cat's in the bag, and the bag's in the river.

I think most all of us thought he was more or less in before the season started, but a fourth Cy Young would clinch it, and he's got a good start on that. Hard to argue that he hasn't passed Kershaw as the best pitcher in the NL.

Two catchers from the hall of very good that have some similarity to Molina would be Bill Freehan and Lance Parrish. Both of their career war numbers are pretty similar.

Freehan's career is similar to Molina with his whole career with the Tigers and the 60s World Series appearances. Only really know him from baseball cards so I cannot speak to how good his defense was, but I would imagine pretty decent. The guy went to 11 All Star games, so the fans knew him and thought of him as a pretty good catcher.

Lance Parrish is another player I remember as a kid. He was pretty good and had a long career. In his peak, he was a good power hitter and big part of the 84 Tiger World Championship club. Never going to come up in a HOF vote, but he was a good pro catcher for over a decade. 300+ home runs is pretty darn good from behind the plate too.

Kluber and Sale essentially equal to Scherzer over the last 2 years, fWARwise.

yeah those are the big 4 for sure right now