Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

if the market closes below 24,000 today, we'll have to arrest hillary and the kenyan

I wonder if it was the bitcoin plunge that made people wary of a similar over-valuation in stocks, and they decided to take their profits before too many other people felt the same way.

The Dow Joans is a bullshit index though, I look at the Nazdack and the S in P

darling nikkei

― But doctor, I am Camille Paglia (Bananaman Begins), Tuesday, February 6, 2018 11:04 AM (seven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

^^ underrated post

The Dow Joans is a bullshit index though, I look at the Nazdack and the S in P

Read that as "Nazidack" - i need to go home.

i guess this is what "the markets" are worried about

This Economist cover might become a classic. What happens when the govt delivers huge fiscal stimulus, nine years into the business cycle. We are about to find out. pic.twitter.com/NsCn0J9EkP

— Joseph Lake (@EconomistLake) February 8, 2018

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/02/07/2198503/someone-is-wrong-on-the-internet-wages-and-the-stock-market-edition/

login required, but tldr this argues:

- wages aren't actually rising that fast
- low income wages certainly aren't rising that fast (these are the people who spend a greater fraction of their income, and thus have more influence on consumer spending)
- bankers think wages are rising because bankers' wages are rising

my smart former philosopher hedge fund friend says it's just a minor correction since the market has been growing so much and he's not particularly worried

My question for Joseph Lake would be why did it take 9 years for us to find out and what is it about now that's bringing the chickens home to roost? And I don't mean that rhetorically either, I'm not sure that isn't what's happening.

Market still ... correcting. Apparently it did not listen to Trump's admonition that down is the wrong direction.

Hovering just over 24000.

This stock market needs a proper spanking.

The Fed could raise the margin requirements, but they won't.

Doug Henwood, with graphs:

Since Trump has been bragging for months about the stock market’s strength, the selloff is a marketing challenge for him. His administration weighed in with the customary reassurances, with both White House flack Raj Shah and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin pronouncing the “fundamentals” of the economy “strong.” (You might think that officialdom might be reluctant to repeat the sort of language used by Herbert Hoover in 1929 and John McCain in 2008, but no.)

When people say the economy is strong they mean that unemployment is low and we’re adding 180,000 jobs a month. But millions have dropped out of the labor force. If the same share of the population were working now as at the 2006 pre-recession peak, 8.4 million more would be employed. As the graph below shows, this is the second-worst expansion for job growth out of eleven....

https://lbo-news.com/2018/02/08/about-that-stock-panic/

fake news. chinese hoax. hillary's fault

How the fuck does only 52% of the population have a retirement account?

I'm surprised it's that high.

How the fuck does only 52% of the population have a retirement account?

Results of a 2017 survey:

$0 saved: 39 percent
Less than $1,000 saved: 18 percent
$1,000 to $4,999 saved: 12 percent
$5,000 to $9,999 saved: 6 percent
$10,000 or more saved: 25 percent

I'm in the 39 percent.

yeah, no one is saving. the younger millenials I speak to have a bone-deep understanding of just how fucked they are.

does that same set of stats feature a breakdown by age group?

enjoying the official designations that down 10% is a 'correction' and down 20% is a 'bear market'

yeah i don't really buy any of the currently circulating theories about why this is happening, prob more mass psychological than fundamental. stock markets been going gangbusters for a while, shiller PE ratios are huge so there's a lot lower it could fall (but that doesnt mean it will...)

I'm in the 39 percent.

lol i'm in the 12 percent just from half-working a few years at a place where the contract precludes you from opting out of making contributions to the account (at this point i would really have rather had the cash)

america is really pathetic

Make America less pathetic again!

i love that the upper echelon of those savings categories wd buy you PERHAPS 9 weeks of life in NYC

another very red day tomorrow is a no brainer technically, which means it'll be green I suppose

lol

https://i.imgur.com/zMPlatn.jpg

lol bloomberg businessweek cover art dept back at it again

pouring one out for janet yellen

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/09/us/politics/federal-reserve-nominee-goodfriend.html

keep voting GOP trump country

https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/restaurantsandnews/potential-trade-war-could-hurt-kentucky-bourbon-and-wisconsin-cheese/ar-BBJeesq

happy anniversary!

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/20/senate-bank-rules-rollback-meltdown-416158

TBF I think the banks have learned their lesson.

hardly.

I dunno, they seem duly chastened to me. Humble. Wiser for having flown too close to the sun and seeing the effects firsthand. I'm sure if given the chance they will self-regulate with a sure and steady hand, mindful of their grave responsibility to the hardworking American people. I like to think of them as philosopher kings, myself.

Kylie Jenner wiped out .3 billion of Snap's market value in one tweet https://t.co/pE6KIuLAal pic.twitter.com/W64JSKGvDs

— Bloomberg (@business) February 22, 2018

#capitalism

Welcome to the resistance (?)

In related news, I no longer use pets.com.

I will never understand Snapchat. The shares are basically memberships to the Snapchat CEOs fanclub. Dude didn't even invent the fucking concept behind the company! I understand there's more to it than just coming up with the idea but..

Ousted Snapchat early employee Reggie Brown was paid $157.5 million in a settlement in September 2014 to close off a 2013 lawsuit he had brought against other co-founders Evan Spiegel and Bobby Murphy, alleging that they had taken his original idea and run with it, pushing him out of the company without compensation in the process.

The details were made public for the first time in Snapchat’s parent Snap Inc. S-1 filing today, unveiled as a first crucial step in the startup’s bid to go public on the NYSE, which is expected to happen in early March, according to our sources.

The financial terms of the deal between Snapchat and Brown were not disclosed when the settlement was first announced.

I can see venmo existing in 6 years or so. snapchat otoh

Silicon Valley had better be the first thing to go when debt gets more expensive

Newer tech co's all have pristine balance sheets. Snap for example has 2,366 million in current assets, 346 in current liabilities, and 83 of other liabilities. Zero debt. When speculative equity investors dry up, maybe try to slowdown their cash burn, which is running at 2 million a day.

on their balance sheet, "marketable securities" make up almost 3/4 of their current assets -- is that shares of their own stock or ...

Iirc that usually means short-term securities that are low risk and nearly as good as cash.

I more meant I assume less money will flow from Sand Hill Road at some point rather than unicorns that have already gone public going under.

Though presumably Twitter is still trying to sell itself to anyone who will take it

xp - thanks

Unprofitable tech companies have mostly been a means of transferring wealth from speculative investors to insiders for several decades. I wouldn't be troubled, except some of those speculative investors are teachers' pension funds and the like.

at the staff retreat at my office last week it came up that we ought to be planning a policy response to "the really bad recession that's about to hit us"

no better time for a guy in his mid 50s to become jobless, i guess

tariff wars and recession - Trump's new flirtation with ruining everything

got this email yesterday:

In other news, I feel a recession is coming. My friend is a GM at a major car dealership and he said they just had their slowest month in five years. Experience tells me that car sales tend to be an early predictor of an economic downturn.