MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

Israel is trying as well diplomatically to get Russia to restrain Iran. Doesn't seem to be working.

Did Israel clear its recent bombing missions in Syria with Russia?

U.S. Strikes Killed Scores of Russia Fighters in Syria, Sources Say

So Russia and Russian fighters have been supporting Syria and Iran, but for now Russia is being quiet about the retaliatory strikes by both Israel and the US. They must see them as one-off actions that will not impact their influence

i was thinking that they're likely concerned about escalation as well. things are going pretty tony for them in Syria and it has cost them a significant investment. w/ the sanctions, etc, they are likely v extended and cannot start taking on more conflagration. remember when the turkey stuff went down they ended up not making a huge deal out of it either (as i remember - someone else's recollection may be different). the alternative is that israel is liaisoning about the strikes at least in aggregate and russia is giving the thumbs up.

When Israel boasted that it took out half of Syria's air defenses the other day, I saw a semi-conservative tweeter say "why didn't Obama do that when Syria used chemical weapons," although the tweeter then acknowledged that this still wouldn't have totally weakened Assad back then and necessarily changed things completely for the non-Isis (US supported) rebels then

i hadn't heard that boast! tbh i didn't follow it v closely so i didn't realize the campaign was so extensive. i do think iran would like to establish a front with israel from syria but i don't think they can afford to press it. w/ discontent at home, slowly recovering economy, these years of investment in syria, whatever amount they' re actually spending in yemen... i do wonder how extended they are too. it's so hard to measure the stability of these closed regimes but you'd have to think they are pretty thin and can't really afford to now pick a direct fight w/ israel.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/la-fg-israel-iran-20180211-story.html#nt=featured-content

Israel estimates that it destroyed nearly half of Syria’s air defense system in a retaliatory air force sortie after one of its F-16 fighter jets was shot down by a Syrian missile, according to a military assessment provided to local news media Sunday.

The fighting broke out Saturday after an Iranian drone, launched from a site controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, flew into Israeli airspace.

Israel said it hit eight Syrian army targets and four Iranian sites in Syria, including an Iranian command trailer at the so-called T4 base, near the ancient city of Palmyra, from which the drone was launched early Saturday. Israeli Apache helicopters downed the drone, and four F-16 jets were dispatched into Syrian territory to bomb the site from which it was launched.

One Israeli F-16 was hit by Syrian fire as it returned to Israel from the mission, leading to the massive Israeli retaliation.

The deputy commander of Israel’s air force, Brig. Gen. Tomer Bar, said Saturday that Israel’s aerial reprisal was “the biggest and most significant attack the air force has conducted against Syrian air defenses” since the 1982 Lebanon War....

Kommersant is reporting that the attempt to seize the air base was unsanctioned and that the Russian mercs were under the command of a local businessman who wanted to capture nearby oil fields.

There is apparently footage of the bombing raid and it was pretty clear they had no air support, either from Russia or Syria. The story goes that they took out a lot of US and Kurdish soldiers and the US called in air strikes to maintain hold of the base.

I wouldn’t bet against this kind of thing happening again. Russia has done something similar to the US in Iraq and pulled most of their soldiers out - with private contractors filling the void in return for a cut of oil revenue. The controls are so weak, you’re probably going to get mercenaries fighting against each other at some point.

Good piece by Nataliya Valilyeva on the (officially) five Russians who were killed by the US airstrike:

https://apnews.com/410f9f2047d04460907ed08f3a9d3651

They were working for Wagner, the biggest private contractor / mercenary company - essentially Russia's answer to Blackwater.

It looks like there is pressure within the Duma to start properly regulating the contractors:

https://apnews.com/fb4bbb531e5b49df96652536afb66372

U.N. security council report on Yemen that was released the other day is grim reading

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/N1800513.pdf

Ugh.

Why more Iranians don't use "Ultrasurf" to access the internet

China, the world’s biggest Internet censor, objects to the development of programs that can circumvent its repressive censorship. Obama administration officials admitted that State Department funding decisions in such matters are based, at least in part, on the department’s desire to keep the Chinese from “go[ing] ballistic.” Now similar concerns for Chinese sensitivities appear to be shaping the Trump administration’s response to the Iranian people’s protests for freedom.

Iranians have been using UltraSurf to circumvent the mullahs’ censors, but recently the number of Iranian users has exploded to about 2 million, with daily hits on the website numbering about 1 billion. That’s the good news. The bad news is that because of the lack of funding from State, UltraSurf’s servers are in danger of crashing for lack of capacity to meet the exploding Iranian demand. Too many Iranians have joined the people in other closed societies who are trying to use the software.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/01/06/one-thing-the-trump-administration-can-do-right-now-to-help-protesters-in-iran/?utm_term=.4d1a9049f0d3

More on Iran from a kinda neo-con, sometime moderate W. Post columnist Jackson Diehl

Iranians are still nationalists: More than 70 percent still favor developing missiles and a nuclear capacity. Only 16 percent told the pollsters that “Iran’s political system needs to undergo fundamental change.” Yet far fewer support the regime’s foreign adventures. Forty-two percent say “the government should spend less money in places like Syria and Iraq.” A plurality say Iran should negotiate with other countries rather than try to become a regional hegemon. And though 75 percent say the nuclear deal has not improved living conditions, 55 percent still favor it.

What this tells us is that one of the best ways to counter Iran’s interventions in Iraq, Yemen and Syria is to ally with the large bloc of Iranians who oppose them. In part that means helping Iranians find out what their government is up to; the news that it was planning to cut food subsidies while increasing spending on the Revolutionary Guard was one of the triggers of the protests.

Only a tiny number of Iranians — 8 percent, according to the new poll — get information from foreign radio broadcasts, but more than 60 percent depend on the Internet or apps such as Telegram. The United States could do a lot more to help people get around the regime’s attempts to block these channels.
...Rather than pursue such strategies, Trump seems intent on voiding the nuclear deal by May, basically on the grounds that it was negotiated by President Barack Obama. The pact is far from perfect, as I have argued before. For now, though, it has helped to open a rift between the regime and its public and created a potent new source of pressure on Tehran’s foreign adventures. If Trump kills it, expect some quiet celebrations in Tehran.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/the-nuclear-agreement-is-the-worst-deal-ever--for-iran/2018/02/18/b9849abe-1267-11e8-8ea1-c1d91fcec3fe_story.html?utm_term=.1ad3af041aea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/one-of-the-bloodiest-attacks-of-syrias-war-kills-over-100-in-a-rebel-held-damascus-suburb/2018/02/20/966127c2-161e-11e8-942d-16a950029788_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_syriaghouta-1116am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.30af1600b0fc

Attacks by forces loyal to the Syrian government have killed more than 100 people in a rebel-held Damascus suburb, aid agencies and monitoring groups said Tuesday, calling it one of the bloodiest 24-hour periods in Syria’s seven-year war.

People cowered in their basements and doctors worked around the clock as warplanes pounded the cluster of towns and villages east of Damascus known as Ghouta, which government forces have surrounded for the past four years.

Even by the standards of Ghouta, the opposition’s isolated last bastion outside the capital, the latest assault has been brutal. Just last month, government warplanes killed at least 210 people and sent hundreds fleeing to what remained of the hospitals.

In the latest attack, hospitals appeared to be the target. More than five of them were hit on Monday, according to the Union of Medical Care and Relief Organizations (UOSSM). The France-based charity put the toll of the strikes on Monday at 97 dead and more than 500 injured.

Assad is brutal, and nothing will happen to him.

Meanwhile, in another part of Syria--

Turkey warned on Wednesday that pro-Damascus forces would face “serious consequences” for entering Syria’s Afrin region to help Kurdish fighters repel a Turkish offensive.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-afrin/stakes-rise-in-turkeys-afrin-assault-as-pro-assad-militia-arrive-idUSKCN1G50ON

x-post: Got forbid anything happened to him. That would mean regime change.

given that apart from ypg the opposition are all takfiri jihadists there really isn't a "good" outcome to this horrible war

http://www.dw.com/en/which-rebel-groups-are-fighting-in-syrias-eastern-ghouta/a-42663501

Of the 5 listed in this article, Faylaq al-Rahman: The Faylaq al-Rahman organization, or al-Rahman Legion, is also based in Eastern Ghouta, looks like the least bad

there really isn't a "good" outcome to this horrible war

Considering the near-certainty that whoever wins on the battlefield will indulge in mass reprisal murders, even the outcome of "peace" won't bring much peace. As a practical matter, the fact that all sides understand the inevitability of reprisals means there is every motivation to fight on to complete exhaustion. The winners will rule over rubble, but at least they will be alive, and by now that's all this war is about: survival.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/02/21/opinion/syria-ghouta-russia-isis.html?emc=edit_th_180222&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=37355772&referer=

NY Times Editorial Board says Assad and Russia should be charged with war crimes for current attacks on Ghouta

I kinda would like to see Assad out of office and facing a war crimes trial, even if Syria would just become Libya like, or requiring a UN presence to try to hold off all the other bad options. Alas, UN has messed up in Congo, and Russia, Iran and current US government would never support such an idea. A chaotic Syria without Assad using an Air Force to drop barrel bombs, might not be perfect, but it might be slightly less worse.

There's no reason to think it wouldn't be worse. Libya is now a failed state/nightmare of a country.

And Syria isn't?

In Syria if the jihadists are conclusively defeated - I'm no expert on military affairs but with the help of Russia, Iran, Hezbollah they might well be - Assad's government will be able establish control over the country, with a possibility of something similar to the status quo ante prevailing.

So is an authoritarian state with Assad having an air force that drops barrel bombs, and has support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah better than Libya? I dunno. Maybe less chaotic I guess, and thanks to Assad's ruthlessness, lots less people around.

The benefits of a central authority, no matter that it is despotic, is better than total chaos and lawlessness.

I also believe, fairly strongly, that if somehow, magically the people rebelling against Assad could gain control over the country, it would be a hellhole.

Wikipedia says there's been something like 400.000 people killed in the Syrian civil war and 10.000 in the Libya Civil War. Take that with a BIG grain of salt, but still. And not getting rid of Assad means the country could explode all over again. It's not the first uprising they've defeated.

this study from 2015 had casualties at 20k for the Libyan Civil Wars (2011 and 2014-present) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211419X15000348 Although Syria is more than 3 times more populous than Libya obviously the war there has just been so much more brutal, with huge atrocities from both sides, most notably government forces deliberate targeting of civilians, and targeting of enemy forces in populated areas in ways sure to kill many civilians - war crimes.

I also believe, fairly strongly, that if somehow, magically the people rebelling against Assad could gain control over the country, it would be a hellhole.

What do you think Assad turned Aleppo into? What do you think he's doing now to Ghouta?

Yeah I'm aware we're talking about the outcome from the end of the conflict. The outcome of the Civil War in Libya that ousted Gaddafi is a failed state and an ongoing war that has no signs of abating. In Syria this war may finally come to a conclusion soon.

only in the sense that it'll become an occupation. assad is still going to need to ongoingly pacify resistance. the war isn't coming to a true *conclusion* imo any time soon, and this is putting aside that iran may be spoiling for a new war right around the corner w/ israel.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/turkey-turks-become-obsessed-with-genealogy.html

that's a very interesting and very odd article

As bombs continued to rain down on the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta on Monday, the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, demanded that the Syria cease-fire resolution that the Security Council adopted unanimously over the weekend take effect immediately.

...President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his Russian and Iranian allies appear to be exploiting the wording of the resolution, which did not set a firm date for the cease-fire to take effect and excluded attacks on opposition forces identified as terrorists, who make up some of the estimated 580 opposition fighters entrenched in eastern Ghouta.

...Mr. Guterres demanded that aid agencies be granted access to deliver humanitarian assistance to the nearly 400,000 people in eastern Ghouta who have been besieged for years, and to evacuate hundreds of critically ill patients whose transfer to hospitals less than an hour’s drive away has been resolutely blocked by the government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/world/europe/syria-eastern-ghouta-cease-fire.html

Less folks trying to flee to Europe (but some still are--mostly Eritreans and Somalians).

We’re here to stop people from dying in the Mediterranean,” said Sylvie Bergier-Diallo, the deputy chief of the French mission in Niger.

But very few are actually approved, and so the French delegation is also there to send a message to other would-be migrants: Stay home, and do not risk a perilous journey for an asylum claim that would ultimately be denied in France.
The French outpost is part of a new forward defense in Europe’s struggle to hold off migration from Africa; it is a small, relatively benign piece of a larger strategy that otherwise threatens to subvert Europe’s humanitarian ideals.

After years of being buffeted by uncontrolled migration, Europe is striking out. Italy is suspected of quietly cutting deals with Libyan warlords who control the migration route. The European Union has sent delegations to African capitals, waving aid and incentives for leaders to keep their people at home. Now come the French.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/world/africa/france-africa-migrants-asylum-niger.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article

spain have had a detention centre set up in mauritania for years

This does not appear yet to be a better situation than Libya

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will examine attacks including one on Sunday which health authorities said killed a child and caused symptoms consistent with exposure to chlorine gas, the sources said.

Political leaders in France, the United States and United Kingdom said this month they would back targeted military action against Damascus if there were proof chemical weapons had been used by forces under President Bashar al-Assad.

The investigation by the OPCW fact-finding team comes as Syrian warplanes continued to strike eastern Ghouta on Tuesday, despite a Russian call for a five-hour daily truce to allow the 400,000 people living there under siege to leave.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-chemicalweapons/exclusive-chemical-weapons-watchdog-investigates-ghouta-attacks-sources-idUSKCN1GB12O

Africa won't be able to support an additional 1.3 billion this century, but neither can Europe. The obvious move for Europe is to support and arm Arab nationalists in the Maghreb, who can deter migration without media coverage of sinking trawlers. Not surprised that Italy is already doing this. Lifeboat ethics is a pretty ugly subject, but given the choice between deterring mass migration, and homegrown fascism...

If Eritrea and Somalia (where most of the recent migration has been from) had democratic governments that were responsive to the people, and did not have to contend with armed militants, and could therefore get financial and other supports from nations elsewhere in the world plus assistance from NGOs, there would be less migrants. But sadly, that's a fantasy.

Not to mention Syrian refugees and the options for government there.

Moscow and Tehran see eye to eye in terms of preserving the existing Syrian government. They maintain a symbiotic military relationship as well, with Russia owning the skies while Iran fields around 60,000 fighters who form the spine of the regime’s ground forces.

Yet cracks are appearing, as the reconstruction era beckons somewhere on the horizon. Important sectors of the economy need to be rebuilt, particularly oil and gas exploitation, phosphates, power plants, a new harbor and a third cellphone carrier.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/world/europe/russia-syria-assad.html

Life is tough for the conquerors

http://washington.carpediem.cd/events/6178746-protest-lockheed-martins-reception-for-the-saudi-prince-at-trump-international-hotel-washington-d-c/

Lockheed Martin reception coming March 19 for Saudi Prince

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/09/middleeast/turkey-erdogan-afrin-syria-intl/index.html

Turkey continues anti-Kurd campaign in Afrin, Syria

Modern history’s saddest recurring theme: The Kurds are expendable in the Great Game. https://t.co/GNdhQGxCPu

— David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) March 18, 2018

more doom and gloom coming to Yemen...

In another vote of confidence in the Saudi military, the Trump administration told Congress on Thursday it planned to approve an arms sale to Saudi Arabia valued at more than $1 billion. The State Department said the package includes up to about 6,700 U.S.-made anti-tank missiles, along with servicing, maintanence and parts for helicopters and tanks already in the kingdom's arsenal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/palestinian-journalist-in-vest-marked-press-shot-dead-by-israeli-troops-in-gaza/2018/04/07/ac57b524-3a30-11e8-8fd2-49fe3c675a89_story.html?utm_term=.4c7612cf30df

terrible

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/saudi-prince-mohammed-us-tour-hollywood-harvard-silicon-valley-dwayne-johnson-rupert-murdoch-oprah-a8293456.html

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles was one of the few Americans who met with Prince Mohammed and in public stressed human rights issues. In a statement, the mayor said he “urged the Crown Prince to continue his efforts to advance women’s rights, and raised concerns about human rights and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen.”

In Los Angeles, Prince Mohammed’s visit drew a smattering of protests. “He’s coming here under the guise that he’s some great reformer and changing the country,” said Michelle Modglin, 67, a retired nurse, demonstrating outside the Beverly Hills office of the William Morris Endeavor talent agency, which recently received a $400m (£283m) investment from Saudi Arabia. “But we know that’s not true as long as he’s bombing Yemen and killing innocent people.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/08/syrian-government-accused-of-chemical-attacks-on-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta

more chemical attacks

I'm not sure much of the world would object to a Wall surrounding the Graveyard of Empires.

what fresh hell would have been unleashed if a goddamn US general was killed in that op? when your 17 year old war is going great!

The Russians would never be this clumsy.

The Skripal debacle suggests otherwise.

... not to mention Litvinenko's assassins leaving a trail of radiocative polonium throughout London from their hotel room to the place they poisoned him and the two clowns who were recently thrown out of the Netherlands for trying to hack into the lab that was carrying out analysis on Novichok samples left behind by the two geniuses who went after the Skripals

I think that the Litvinenko case and maybe the Skripal case as well were intended to be obviously Russian handiwork. I mean you don't poison someone with a rare radioactive isotope that only a government could get a hold of if you don't intend to leave a calling card. I think Putin got about the level of deniability that he intended to get in that case. And if it weren't for some lucky breaks in the Skripal case, it's likely there never would have been an identification of the suspects, and even then it took months. I don't think these cases are really comparable to the total shitshow that the Khashoggi case has been for the Saudis.

The Skripal case was a shitshow as well. The targets survived, and two other people died. That is not how assassinations are supposed to go.

Fair point. The attempted cover up with the tv interview of those 2 guys was pretty amateurish as well.

What do you do after the young prince you helped install has a Washington-based journalist murdered and dismembered? You throw a dinner party for the chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://t.co/LvDJD2MOFq

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 23, 2018

Oh Saudi Arabia...

Oh United Arab Emirates Kingdom...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46300609

How is our glorious country sown?

No good news here it seems

Yemeni prisoner exchange seems like good news, even if it only helps out the prisoners and leads no further.

Re: the Friday call between Trump and Ergodan that lead to 1) Trump's decision to evacuate US troops from Syria in 60-100 days, 2) US go-ahead for Turkish military to move into areas held by US Kurdish allies (YPG, etc), 3) a $3.5 B order for Patriot missiles, and 4) consideration to extradite opposition cleric Gulen from US to Turkey, Ragıp Soylu's twitter is a pretty interesting source.

But money can't buy love or happiness. But, it can buy US foreign policy.

this is obviously not good for the kurd proxies, but I'm not entirely sure what the end game was going to be here after the "defeat of isis" in terms of US support for irregular forces who are enemies of a NATO ally (no matter how poor a NATO ally Turkey is)

there will be countries providing aid (covert + overt) to the kurds; they have a real opportunity imo tho the risks are also enormous. i can't help but think about 1948. obv the world is much more different today but building a state is a treacherous enterprise.

can't someone just assassinate Erdogan already

talking to my Turkish friends about the country's political situation is depressing

psyched for the coming genocide.

As Syria’s government consolidates control after years of civil war, President Bashar al-Assad’s army is doubling down on executions of political prisoners, with military judges accelerating the pace they issue death sentences, according to survivors of the country’s most notorious prison.

In interviews, more than two dozen Syrians recently released from the Sednaya military prison in Damascus described a government campaign to clear the decks of political detainees. The former inmates said prisoners are being transferred from jails across Syria to join death-row detainees in Sednaya’s basement and then be executed in pre-dawn hangings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/

https://i.imgur.com/HMQuKOW.png

Erdogan called the Kurds "terrorists" too.

So should we do a 2019 thread?

psyched, I tell you.

There was a time decades ago when Kurdish nationalists followed a path that included sporadic acts of political violence against Turkish civilians. They have long since abandoned that strategy as unproductive, but the Turkish authorities will never abandon their insistence on calling them terrorists for as long as they can gain any political advantage by doing so. Don't expect that to change.

Hey, at least once Assad and Erdogan have finished going door to door wiping out their 'enemies' I can point to these posts and say that i knew it was coming. sigh.

There has been some co-operation between SAA and YPG wrt Turkey as of late

SAA going into Manbij after YPG asked them to.

There was a time decades ago when Kurdish nationalists followed a path that included sporadic acts of political violence against Turkish civilians. They have long since abandoned that strategy as unproductive, but the Turkish authorities will never abandon their insistence on calling them terrorists for as long as they can gain any political advantage by doing so. Don't expect that to change.

― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, January 12, 2019 6:18 PM(two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There's been civilian deaths in pkk attacks in Turkey in the 2010s

Isis not decimated yet

Not extinguished, yet, by any means. But decimated literally means 'reduced by 10%' and that seems well within plausibility.

that's the historic definition which has evolved into "remove a large percentage or part of."

Not sure removing ISIS from Syria would really amount to eliminating them.

What I find really amazing is their distributed network of propagandists and recruiters throughout Europe persists. Surely the intelligence agencies have identified major nodes in this network, but we've yet to see major co-ordinated arrests, and Dabiq/Rumiyah is still being published. I've wondered whether intel agencies are working at cross-purposes to foreign policy agencies in this, as useful fools may have future uses.

New thread time:

What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019