US Politics, February 2018: Our country was founded by geniuses, but it’s being run by idiots

hoos otm

Yes. Also, why is the lefty go-to 'come on, it's not like Clinton lost the election because of the Russians!' Like, the actual, immediate effects of the meddling are almost beside the point. It's fucked that they meddled (yes, just as fucked as when the US has meddled similarly), and the long-term effects seem potentially more damaging than whether or not they had a significant impact on the election.

I can certainly appreciate the "culture of destabilization" take. It's principally the tenor of all this I object to, precisely due to where these sorts of campaigns wind up going from a US context, as hoos alluded to.

the margin was 70,000 votes in three states, how is anyone here able to conclude that it didn't swing the election?

I'd say those bots persuaded enough people such that the release of the Comey letter made November inevitable.

this election was historically close - I'm not sure exactly what the reach of these dudes efforts really were, but it would not surprise me to see 538 argue that it could have plausibly made the difference.

of course whatever they did pales in comparison to leaking thousands of DNC emails into the wild and sparking a month long 'controversy' that amounted to essentially nothing, peddled by networks who were too afraid to come off as biased because they were so hard on a man who was obviously the dumbest and most corrupt candidate of all time. It really was kind of a perfect storm there.

I agree with HOOS. Hadrian, i think the point is that *other* things *also* could've swung that many votes.

I can't keep up with this multiplying cast of characters as the indictments continue. With a few exceptions, seem like colorless drones compared to the Watergate circus.

First the drones, then the workers...

totally agree there are probably dozens of factors which taken independently would have pushed the result

the margin was 70,000 votes in three states, how is anyone here able to conclude that it didn't swing the election?

― Rhine Jive Click Bait (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, February 20, 2018 3:40 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Exactly, and especially given that the specific facts recounted in the indictment do not cover the universe of the sort of activity described, which may be much larger.

I find it facile to conclude that the bots "persuaded" anyone, rather than bringing to the surface their prejudices.

This article (with Oprah!) shows the kind of folks at play here.

Daniel: I feel like he cares more about me than the last president did. He cares about issues affecting my day-to-day life more. Like, the tax cuts. That'll increase my bottom line.

Laura: I feel safer now than I ever did the last eight years of Obama. Oh my God.

Oprah Winfrey: How do you feel safer? Tell me how you feel safer?

Laura: Well, I feel like I can say Merry Christmas to anyone I want wherever I want.

When there is this much carelessness among the voting population, you are already vulnerable to a president like this one. If the bots did anything, it was to give these voters the illusion of community, that they weren't alone in thinking what they think. But the rot has long been there.

I don't know that anyone is arguing otherwise. This campaign has always seemed more about normalization than persuasion.

xp that's persuasion tho, man: directs people to action by exploiting their pre-existing beliefs, values, etc.

yeah I think it's fair to speculate that this propaganda may have inflamed the base and turned out the vote as much or more than it did flip any votes

If everyone was in everyone else’s head i suspect we’d all be horrified as fuck, but part of society is to encourage you not to listen to the asshole voice in your head if you have one, and troll farms dont help that.

See, for example, the many previously-covert racists who no longer feel like they have to hold their tongues. It's not like the events of the past couple of years have slowly convinced them that, hmmm, yeah, maybe other races are inferior to me. It's just created an environment where they feel increasingly comfortable speaking and acting on their pre-existing prejudices.

xposts

If the bots did anything, it was to give these voters the illusion of community, that they weren't alone in thinking what they think. But the rot has long been there.

― droit au butt (Euler), Tuesday, February 20, 2018 3:55 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

As Old Lunch and j. said, you are of the opinion that that sort of illusion does not have an impact on opponents or fence-sitters, particularly in close-knit communities where social conformity is a value?

A big element of wanting to deny the story for some is they kind of got played in a big way by taking the email leaks seriously and not seeing that for what it was because it confirmed a narrative they like. I don’t think we can really “punish Russia” but there probably should be serious conversations about cyber security and media literacy.

With a few exceptions, seem like colorless drones compared to the Watergate circus.

― ice cream social justice (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, February 20, 2018 3:44 PM (eighteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I loved Butterfield! the Musical

who is our Martha Mitchell?

Reince Preibus.

Morbs when the book is closed on this we're going to be looking at a Sgt. Peppers/Mothers cover featuring the likes of Rob Goldstone, Julian Assange, assorted Russian hookers, Macedonian teenagers, and, uh, the Trump family

I don't know if I can stand any more color

not to mention a Roger Stone return engagement

from the P4B thing i linked:

As the largest on-line group to come out of the 2016 primary, and the group who helped form the grassroots for Bernie 2016, we hear the voices who are angered by this news, but understand, it wasn’t 13 Russians who did the work, it was people like you. Keep organizing.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/000/993/875/084.png

As Old Lunch and j. said, you are of the opinion that that sort of illusion does not have an impact on opponents or fence-sitters, particularly in close-knit communities where social conformity is a value?

― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, February 20, 2018 5:02 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I don't think these Americans have close-knit communities anymore! But social media can provide a facsimile of it.

If these people were fence-sitters, it was only in the sense that they might have stayed home. Their beliefs (or whatever passes for belief here) were already established, ready to be brought to action (even if only a drive to the voting booth). And sure, if that's persuasion, sure. My point is that the bots are important only for helping get out the vote, not for convincing people to become Republicans. And yes, that's important enough, since he won. I guess I don't see what the bots did as out of the rules of a democracy, though, understood in the rawest sense in which people get to vote rather than in some richer sense requiring deliberation etc. Enough Americans gave up on deliberation a long time ago to undermine hope of a democracy in any richer sense.

https://www.getbadnews.com/#intro Interesting exercise in understanding fake news effects/twitter role.

Hold up, did I miss another indictment?

Van Der Zwaan?

Yup.

why is the lefty go-to 'come on, it's not like Clinton lost the election because of the Russians!'

because they don't want to admit that they might have been influenced by bad actors' shitposts as well? seems pretty clear to me

juat a bad week for billy corgan, first d'arcy disses him now zwaan is indicted

lol

xp ^a line of thinking that never even occurred to this Bernie voter

I don't presume to speak for all lefties, but my opinion of the gentlewoman from Illinois/Arkansas/Chappaqua has been p much the same for 25 years.

(of the sludge from Queens, about 35 years)

yeah I think it's fair to speculate that this propaganda may have inflamed the base and turned out the vote as much or more than it did flip any votes

― Rhine Jive Click Bait (Hadrian VIII), Tuesday, February 20, 2018 3:59 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Or to speculate that it depressed the vote or drove it to third parties as much or more than it turned it out or flipped it. Turnout declined nationally as a consequence of both inter- and intra-party negative campaigning. While this was not true in all states - turnout rose significantly in highly-contested Florida and Pennsylvania, as well as in Arizona for which Hillary made a play or at least a feint, though in two of three cases this may reflect population growth/demographic change as much as anything else - but it declined significantly in many of the often-less-contested mostly-blue or recently-blue purple states of the midwest like (Minnesota,) Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio, staying roughly even in Michigan, where slightly fewer picked a name on the ballot. The third party and, where relevant, write-in votes also increased substantially in every one of these states. Worth noting that MI, WI, and MN were all states in which Sanders beat Clinton with a message crafted by a former Manafort ally and with the assistance of Russian propaganda efforts, and IA was very nearly so, but also that Hillary had also lost all but one of these in 2008, when Obama was not on the ballot in MI.

all states in which Sanders beat Clinton with a message crafted by a former Manafort ally

can you expand on this?

lefties are also extra sensitive to accusations like this due to the long history of the American left getting ratfucked by their own government (as opposed to foreign ones), I'd wager. it's not simply a matter off ass-covering, I don't think.

coupled with the fact that this was the first election cycle in living memory where someone approaching a leftist got within spitting distance of the nomination and you have a p solid recipe for skepticism/contrarianism

I don't presume to speak for all lefties, but my opinion of the gentlewoman from Illinois/Arkansas/Chappaqua has been p much the same for 25 years.

Can you name a political opinion of yours that has changed in the last, say, two decades? Because the whole "unwillingness to process new information/change one's mind" thing is not nearly as admirable or awesome as many people seem to think.

That the Democratic Party can be changed from within.

Anyway, I exaggerate. Clinton and Trump are both much worse than I would've said 20 years ago. As is America. As is the human race.

That Manafort ally-Sanders campaign connection seems really specious imo. Like it reminds me of the kind of conclusions people would draw from the leaked emails when not knowing how to separate things that seem weird/scandalous but are actually just normal.

"Hitler was a vegetarian!"

This is both ridiculous and hilarious

From @TIME: WH staffers were unable to convince Trump to mute his tweets to Mueller indictments, so they booked spokesmen on Fox News "to try to direct Trump toward a little less fanciful readings of the indictments." #ThisIsntNormal https://t.co/cqsZaUmRdl

— Chris Lu (@ChrisLu44) February 20, 2018

Once again, I feel the need to pan this work of fiction we're living in for straining all plausibility.

Okay, sure, the president's staff are engaged in needlessly convoluted Three's Company-level hijinks to communicate with him via his favorite teevee channel, that's believable.

OL otm. I guess it is appropriate to our age that savvy political professionals believe the most effective way to communicate with the president is by appearing on a nationally broadcast television show, instead of like, calling him on the phone or whatever.

As much as I love Peter Sellers, a gritty Being There remake would be timely.

I guess I don't see what the bots did as out of the rules of a democracy

except that the botmasters didn't belong to our demos!!