MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

So is an authoritarian state with Assad having an air force that drops barrel bombs, and has support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah better than Libya? I dunno. Maybe less chaotic I guess, and thanks to Assad's ruthlessness, lots less people around.

The benefits of a central authority, no matter that it is despotic, is better than total chaos and lawlessness.

I also believe, fairly strongly, that if somehow, magically the people rebelling against Assad could gain control over the country, it would be a hellhole.

Wikipedia says there's been something like 400.000 people killed in the Syrian civil war and 10.000 in the Libya Civil War. Take that with a BIG grain of salt, but still. And not getting rid of Assad means the country could explode all over again. It's not the first uprising they've defeated.

this study from 2015 had casualties at 20k for the Libyan Civil Wars (2011 and 2014-present) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211419X15000348 Although Syria is more than 3 times more populous than Libya obviously the war there has just been so much more brutal, with huge atrocities from both sides, most notably government forces deliberate targeting of civilians, and targeting of enemy forces in populated areas in ways sure to kill many civilians - war crimes.

I also believe, fairly strongly, that if somehow, magically the people rebelling against Assad could gain control over the country, it would be a hellhole.

What do you think Assad turned Aleppo into? What do you think he's doing now to Ghouta?

Yeah I'm aware we're talking about the outcome from the end of the conflict. The outcome of the Civil War in Libya that ousted Gaddafi is a failed state and an ongoing war that has no signs of abating. In Syria this war may finally come to a conclusion soon.

only in the sense that it'll become an occupation. assad is still going to need to ongoingly pacify resistance. the war isn't coming to a true *conclusion* imo any time soon, and this is putting aside that iran may be spoiling for a new war right around the corner w/ israel.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/turkey-turks-become-obsessed-with-genealogy.html

that's a very interesting and very odd article

As bombs continued to rain down on the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta on Monday, the United Nations secretary general, António Guterres, demanded that the Syria cease-fire resolution that the Security Council adopted unanimously over the weekend take effect immediately.

...President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his Russian and Iranian allies appear to be exploiting the wording of the resolution, which did not set a firm date for the cease-fire to take effect and excluded attacks on opposition forces identified as terrorists, who make up some of the estimated 580 opposition fighters entrenched in eastern Ghouta.

...Mr. Guterres demanded that aid agencies be granted access to deliver humanitarian assistance to the nearly 400,000 people in eastern Ghouta who have been besieged for years, and to evacuate hundreds of critically ill patients whose transfer to hospitals less than an hour’s drive away has been resolutely blocked by the government.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/world/europe/syria-eastern-ghouta-cease-fire.html

Less folks trying to flee to Europe (but some still are--mostly Eritreans and Somalians).

We’re here to stop people from dying in the Mediterranean,” said Sylvie Bergier-Diallo, the deputy chief of the French mission in Niger.

But very few are actually approved, and so the French delegation is also there to send a message to other would-be migrants: Stay home, and do not risk a perilous journey for an asylum claim that would ultimately be denied in France.
The French outpost is part of a new forward defense in Europe’s struggle to hold off migration from Africa; it is a small, relatively benign piece of a larger strategy that otherwise threatens to subvert Europe’s humanitarian ideals.

After years of being buffeted by uncontrolled migration, Europe is striking out. Italy is suspected of quietly cutting deals with Libyan warlords who control the migration route. The European Union has sent delegations to African capitals, waving aid and incentives for leaders to keep their people at home. Now come the French.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/world/africa/france-africa-migrants-asylum-niger.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=world/europe&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Europe&pgtype=article

spain have had a detention centre set up in mauritania for years

This does not appear yet to be a better situation than Libya

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) will examine attacks including one on Sunday which health authorities said killed a child and caused symptoms consistent with exposure to chlorine gas, the sources said.

Political leaders in France, the United States and United Kingdom said this month they would back targeted military action against Damascus if there were proof chemical weapons had been used by forces under President Bashar al-Assad.

The investigation by the OPCW fact-finding team comes as Syrian warplanes continued to strike eastern Ghouta on Tuesday, despite a Russian call for a five-hour daily truce to allow the 400,000 people living there under siege to leave.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-chemicalweapons/exclusive-chemical-weapons-watchdog-investigates-ghouta-attacks-sources-idUSKCN1GB12O

Africa won't be able to support an additional 1.3 billion this century, but neither can Europe. The obvious move for Europe is to support and arm Arab nationalists in the Maghreb, who can deter migration without media coverage of sinking trawlers. Not surprised that Italy is already doing this. Lifeboat ethics is a pretty ugly subject, but given the choice between deterring mass migration, and homegrown fascism...

If Eritrea and Somalia (where most of the recent migration has been from) had democratic governments that were responsive to the people, and did not have to contend with armed militants, and could therefore get financial and other supports from nations elsewhere in the world plus assistance from NGOs, there would be less migrants. But sadly, that's a fantasy.

Not to mention Syrian refugees and the options for government there.

Moscow and Tehran see eye to eye in terms of preserving the existing Syrian government. They maintain a symbiotic military relationship as well, with Russia owning the skies while Iran fields around 60,000 fighters who form the spine of the regime’s ground forces.

Yet cracks are appearing, as the reconstruction era beckons somewhere on the horizon. Important sectors of the economy need to be rebuilt, particularly oil and gas exploitation, phosphates, power plants, a new harbor and a third cellphone carrier.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/world/europe/russia-syria-assad.html

Life is tough for the conquerors

http://washington.carpediem.cd/events/6178746-protest-lockheed-martins-reception-for-the-saudi-prince-at-trump-international-hotel-washington-d-c/

Lockheed Martin reception coming March 19 for Saudi Prince

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/09/middleeast/turkey-erdogan-afrin-syria-intl/index.html

Turkey continues anti-Kurd campaign in Afrin, Syria

Modern history’s saddest recurring theme: The Kurds are expendable in the Great Game. https://t.co/GNdhQGxCPu

— David Ignatius (@IgnatiusPost) March 18, 2018

more doom and gloom coming to Yemen...

In another vote of confidence in the Saudi military, the Trump administration told Congress on Thursday it planned to approve an arms sale to Saudi Arabia valued at more than $1 billion. The State Department said the package includes up to about 6,700 U.S.-made anti-tank missiles, along with servicing, maintanence and parts for helicopters and tanks already in the kingdom's arsenal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/palestinian-journalist-in-vest-marked-press-shot-dead-by-israeli-troops-in-gaza/2018/04/07/ac57b524-3a30-11e8-8fd2-49fe3c675a89_story.html?utm_term=.4c7612cf30df

terrible

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/saudi-prince-mohammed-us-tour-hollywood-harvard-silicon-valley-dwayne-johnson-rupert-murdoch-oprah-a8293456.html

Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles was one of the few Americans who met with Prince Mohammed and in public stressed human rights issues. In a statement, the mayor said he “urged the Crown Prince to continue his efforts to advance women’s rights, and raised concerns about human rights and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen.”

In Los Angeles, Prince Mohammed’s visit drew a smattering of protests. “He’s coming here under the guise that he’s some great reformer and changing the country,” said Michelle Modglin, 67, a retired nurse, demonstrating outside the Beverly Hills office of the William Morris Endeavor talent agency, which recently received a $400m (£283m) investment from Saudi Arabia. “But we know that’s not true as long as he’s bombing Yemen and killing innocent people.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/08/syrian-government-accused-of-chemical-attacks-on-civilians-in-eastern-ghouta

more chemical attacks

Will just Russia, Iran, and Assad make the calls re the future of Syria (with a bit of input from Turkey) while Trump and his generals and whomever at the State Department bicker among themselves? Kurds are still hangin in there in a part of Syria despite the Turks

But chemical attack bothers 45 so who knows what’s next. Retaliatory attack a year ago hasn’t concerned Assad

49 killed in the attack on Douma. UN Security Council to meet today.

not meaning to be "mr tankie lion of damascus lover" over here but the people reporting the chemical attacks are "rebel" islamist activists. what they say has to be taken with a grain of salt - not that that will stop Trump from starting the great middle-eastern war over this whether or not there is independent verification.

Assad is barring anyone from getting access and you are blaming the motives of “rebel “ activists. You never question the motives of the other players in the region though in that posting other than Trump. Assad’s history does suggest a few things. It’s a mess, yea I know many of the fighting groups are bad with their own motives , and not necessarily better than Assad, Russia or Iran. However, if Russia, Iran, and Turkey are gonna continue negotiations on the future of Syria, without the US or UN , that seems questionable motives-wise as well. Yes, I know including current US and UN leadership is also problematic.

I'm sure Assad would use chemical weapons on his people. I'm not sure that Jaysh-Al-Islam are the most trustworthy folks

The White Helmets and rescuers have provided some photos. Do you think they photoshopped?

White Helmets are islamist affiliated. The pictures are of dead bodies. I don't know how they were killed or by who.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-trumps-threat-to-make-assad-pay-a-big-price-rings-hollow?mbid=nl_Daily%20040918&CNDID=39876153&spMailingID=13279562&spUserID=MTMzMTg0Njc0MTUzS0&spJobID=1380774260&spReportId=MTM4MDc3NDI2MAS2

New Yorker article quotes folks who say it would take lots of bombing to get stubborn Assad to stop chemical attacks. Article also suggests Russia and Iran now control much of Syria and they’re fine with Assad.

Every plant was standing upright. Every home decoration was up. Photos hanging on the wall like nothing happened. But the people in the bunkers are dead. It wasn't a bombing. It was a chemical assault.

Dismayed by the lack of interest in this story. Dismayed by the disinterest here on ilx. Can't watch the stories about this on the telly. Just can't. Sick to my stomach.

I think people are interested. It's just that there's not really much that can be done. Assad has basically won the civil war, regime change is off the table at this stage.

(barring a trump/bolton full on war, which i don't think many will have the stomach for and would be also catastrophically bloody)

I'm interested, but as a typical westerner my opinion on foreign conflicts is most unwarranted.

Also, LBI I have no idea where you gather your news but the chemical attacks are front page of lots of leading publications.

Dismayed by the lack of interest in this story. Dismayed by the disinterest here on ilx.

I could make a strenuous denunciation of Assad here, if you like, but if such a denunciation were somehow to lead to a deeper direct engagement in the Syrian War on the part of the USA, I think that result would be more harmful than helpful at this stage. Further, I think it is doubtful that there have ever been any good options available to the USA in that war. As with Libya, just removing Assad was, and still is, an incomplete strategy and there was never a chance of a secular democracy rising in his place. There are clear limits on western power in such countries. We can't steer it.

The US or any western country.

Also, LBI I have no idea where you gather your news but the chemical attacks are front page of lots of leading publications.

― Van Horn Street, Monday, April 9, 2018 6:35 PM (thirty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

For sure. But it's not a talking point. The atrocity is reported, and after that: total silence. A tweet by mr 45 can be a convo piece for days on end. These atrocities are reported but then just... die in silence. No-one is stepping up to the plate, no-one is doing anything. Yeah, Russia says "hmm well there's no evidence for it to be a chemical attack!". The west is eerily quiet and self-indulged.

I could make a strenuous denunciation of Assad here, if you like, but if such a denunciation were somehow to lead to a deeper direct engagement in the Syrian War on the part of the USA, I think that result would be more harmful than helpful at this stage.

Don't bother.

Disagreed, too, the Kurds are in dire need of US' help. But Trump doesn't even know what "Kurds" are, so yeah...

I'm sure Assad would use chemical weapons on his people.

As far as conspiracy theories go, I do think it's strange that Assad was apparently on the cusp of victory, with the support of the usual suspects and little in the way of interference by the likes of the US ... and then uses chemical weapons again.

Yeah, I don't really want to get into that territory too much because conspiracy theorizing is silly and who knows what is in Assad's head but seems weird that in long, drawn-out battles like Deir ez-Zor, while the war was in the balance, chemical weapons were not used. Now, with only pockets of rebel areas left and the end of the war imminent, Assad decided "oh I'll do some atrocities to give legitimacy to my rivals and prompt further western intervention".

Was reading a piece in Haaretz that theorized that this was might be Assad thumbing his nose at the U.S. and claiming ownership over the country, like "ha ha, I'll gas civilians if I want, you can't do anything about it, na na na na", which I think is a not completely outlandish theory.

xps - We've been using the Kurds' troops in Syria against ISIS, but that's pissing off the Turks, so there are obvious limits there, too. otoh, the Kurds have an autonomous region within Iraq now, where the Kurdish independence referendum provoked Iraq into seizing the previously Kurdish-controlled oil fields. That's really where the US needs to exert whatever influence it has to assist the Kurds - maintaining their autonomy inside Iraq.

No-one is stepping up to the plate, no-one is doing anything.

― lbi's life of limitless european glamour (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, April 9, 2018 3:14 PM (forty-two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the lessons might be learned.

Ah yes. Like humanity continues to learn lessons from past mistakes and do things better all the time, you mean?

what would you like to see done besides more news headlines?

A notion of actual interest from EU/America in this sordid tragedy would be nice. The headlines will be written after that.

It's pretty obvious Trump is clueless. The US army is more or less acting on its own within this conflict, for better or for worse. I'm equally disappointed in the EU though. They're absent from the plate.

so what are you specifically proposing? what does EU stepping up to the plate means to you? what solutions are believes are the best?

There has been some co-operation between SAA and YPG wrt Turkey as of late

SAA going into Manbij after YPG asked them to.

There was a time decades ago when Kurdish nationalists followed a path that included sporadic acts of political violence against Turkish civilians. They have long since abandoned that strategy as unproductive, but the Turkish authorities will never abandon their insistence on calling them terrorists for as long as they can gain any political advantage by doing so. Don't expect that to change.

― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, January 12, 2019 6:18 PM(two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There's been civilian deaths in pkk attacks in Turkey in the 2010s

Isis not decimated yet

Not extinguished, yet, by any means. But decimated literally means 'reduced by 10%' and that seems well within plausibility.

that's the historic definition which has evolved into "remove a large percentage or part of."

Not sure removing ISIS from Syria would really amount to eliminating them.

What I find really amazing is their distributed network of propagandists and recruiters throughout Europe persists. Surely the intelligence agencies have identified major nodes in this network, but we've yet to see major co-ordinated arrests, and Dabiq/Rumiyah is still being published. I've wondered whether intel agencies are working at cross-purposes to foreign policy agencies in this, as useful fools may have future uses.

New thread time:

What Do You MENA (Middle East, North Africa and other nearby Political Hotspots) 2019