the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

apparently today's Mail claims that Labour's support for the customs union will "plunge the Brexit process into chaos".

cough.

the odds of a 2018 election have drifted out to 4/1 recently. I'm hoping that market might dramatically change this week.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DW89yqLX0AEoy1u.jpg
(Quote from "The Witchfinder General: A Political Odyssey" by Joyce Gould)

Be a happy day when he finally disappears from public life.

It's so heartening that Frank Field has given such long service to the PLP and the people of Birkenhead. Now please fuck off and die.

people who vote for Frank Field are mentally ill, not only at the time when they vote for him

from the mail:

Jeremy Corbyn was accused of 'selling snake oil' today as he prepares to set out plans that would keep Britain shackled to the EU.

In his biggest speech on Brexit since the referendum, the Labour leader will say he is ready to sacrifice the UK's ability to strike new trade deals in return for staying in a customs union with the EU.

He is also expected to make clear that free movement rules should continue almost unchanged - despite pressure to curb immigration having been one of the main issues in the 2016 vote.

The shift by Labour has already caused fury among the party's Brexiteers, and was branded nakedly political by Tories, as it paves the way for a titanic Commons showdown that could throw the government into turmoil.

oh noes!

Keep politics out of politics.

Blue Labour are disingenuously trying to talk Corbyn into the 2nd Ref trap, which they would prefer to the possibility of Labour ousting the Tories. Such commitment to their true cause is impressive - but they need to learn all referenda are bad imo, and W Germany ditched them for a good reason. I never want to see another one again, ever!

<crying eagle wrapped in Saltire>

lol, soz about the soapbox, just had a caffeine rush after doing my first vigorous exercise for weeks.

I realise it's not incisive, but it's worth noting that "keep politics out of politics" is definitely a Tory plan - not just shifting the Overton window so that things like "immigrants r bad" / "the 1970s were a wasteland" are agreed by all, but instilling a sense of "we're all in this together", a sepia glow of Darkest Hour (er, so to speak) where this is all What We're Going Through and the only question is "Who do you trust to Keep Going?".

Ah no, you're fine - I think one of the minor threads here is that this grinding mess will be used to hammer any further Independence attempts on the part of the UK countries.

Even independence referendums are wrong imo. But I don't think there is a simple solution to ridding Scotland and The North of the sectarian bigotry. But getting shut of them Saxe-Coburg parasites might be a good start.

Norn irn needs a braveheart is all

S'why I keep repping for a decent cuchulainn netflix

"he carries the trait of ‘ríastrad’, in which he undergoes a sort of distortion, becoming an unrecognizable monster who knows neither friend nor foe."

the inspiration for the Hulk maybe.

Read into it, it's powerful

Osborne likes it: https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/evening-standard-comment-brexiteers-have-handed-labour-an-open-goal-a3775721.html

ben bradley's apology up to 47,831 retweets now btw

extremely good

Labour MP Rebecca Long-Bailey calls on political editors of C4, Guardian, then Newsnight as: “The gentleman with the red tie and the glasses… the lady sat down with the blue dress on… the gentleman with the blue tie and the lovely blue jumper" pic.twitter.com/AmCFpxkTwh

— Mark Di Stefano 🤙🏻 (@MarkDiStef) February 26, 2018

enjoying the unanimous 'who gives a fuck' responses to that tweet

oh noes an mp doesn't pay constant attention to their masters in the media, what a disaster for socialism

Not sure it was meant as condemnatory, tbh.

You know the Tories are fucked when the CBI is publically favouring the Brexit position of the most left-wing Labour leader in generations.

i mean i'd like to think so but i'm not convinced the tories won't somehow manage to seal a ruinous brexit deal before they get turfed out of office

"The government will not be joining a customs union. We want to have the freedom to sign our own trade deals and to reach out into the world."

pretty weak response, not like they will have a choice if Clarke, Soubry and chums vote against it.

lulz

Ben Bradley's apology to Jeremy Corbyn has got more shares than every tweet by the Tory party in 2018 combined https://t.co/CN72FOmAm3 pic.twitter.com/HnLjvizDkQ

— Political Scrapbook (@PSbook) February 26, 2018

To appreciate the full magnitude of the response to Bradley’s apology, here’s a Donald Trump fact: It’s been retweeted more times than all but one of the US President’s posts in February.

this is already one of history's greatest (non-violent) owns

When the Mail say Corbyn's speech has "caused fury among the Labour Brexiteers" are they taking about...Kate Hoey and six other weirdos? I mean fair play that's the kind of internal division you don't come back from

Biscuit wtf u been

daily mail in 'disingenuous reporting' shocker

Speaking of disingenuous, there’s a scorching take from Rifkind here:

How about "Jeremy Corbyn has been brilliantly outmaneuvered by Keir Starmer but hasn't realised it yet"?

— Hugo Rifkind (@hugorifkind) February 26, 2018

#justremoanerthings

hell is being caught in the middle of a dan hodges/hugo rifkind conversation, forever

i still get this confusing bundle of laughter, anger and bafflement watching angry centrists getting their angry centrism on, it's maybe the purest form of genteel entitlement in the world

or maybe the purest form of class consciousness idk

i think the mail's purpose is to provoke fury -- or at least truculent disapproval -- among voters aka labour-voting brexit-leaners, who are a rather larger group than vocally pro-brexit labour MPs

(adding:i am unconvinced the mail has the traction to effect the provocation on an significant scale)

He really is Schroedinger’s politician - he’s either too thick to realise he’s being cunningly outmanoeuvred (by a member of his shadow cabinet whose six tests he agreed to!) or he’s a wily old fox cynically plotting for power. He’s a dictator carrying on the path to hard Brexit, or he’s weak and in thrall to the whims of the party. No wonder he doesn’t bother with the media.

A lot has been made of this but is there any evidence labour leavers didn’t already think the party was pro-European? Sure, they’ve fudged it, but aside from the legit crew the vast majority of the party campaigned for Brexit. The betrayal argument clearly applies far more to Tory leavers than it ever did Labour.

reading the comments to that hodges/rifkind exchange because life is awful and i hate myself and found this extremely galaxy-brain take

He won’t get to Number 10. Starmer, or whoever else fancies it, is pulling Corbyn’s strings to get Momentum into power. He’ll be put out to pasture, job done.

— Victoria (@RabonaNutmeg) February 26, 2018

"Former consumer magazine journalist"

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/06/15/was-this-a-brexit-election-after-all-tracking-party-support-among-leave-and-remain-voters/

"In the range of seats where the vote to leave the EU was below 50 per cent, Labour’s vote in the general election was reduced as support for Brexit increasingly approached the half way mark. But in seats where support for Brexit was well above 50 per cent the Labour vote in 2017 was unaffected. This reveals how voters in safe Labour seats in the North, Midlands and the North East, where Brexit is also popular, did not desert Jeremy Corbyn and his party in the general election. Instead, they stayed loyal."

Essentially it's complicated! I think there are some marginals in the midlands where the MPs feel under pressure and are passing that pressure on. But labour has very effectively reduced the salience of brexit as a single-issue determinant on its vote-share, and I suspect will continue to do so.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/files/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-15-at-12.47.12.png

(i included the graph bcz i have no idea how to interpret it)

also lol:

Kate Hoey says she’s quite happy with Corbyn’s customs union speech. “It’s carefully crafted” to avoid upsetting anyone and UK can broker it’s own trade deals, she insists. Surprising praise.

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) February 26, 2018

apparently well known walking mummy frank field was also pro the speech -- so no labour rebellion

if Field is mummified gammon does that make him biltong?

Kate Hoey, quite happy. wtf!

If the Leave voters in question are Labour, they’re probably willing to accept the form of exit that allows Ireland/NI to maintain open borders.

I liked the bit of the speech where he dealt with what his Euroscepticism meant, and tied it to his Remain vote. More of this and often, please.

If the Leave voters in question are Labour, they’re probably willing to accept the form of exit that allows Ireland/NI to maintain open borders.

Do you mean the MPs? If not, I think you may overestimate how much of England cares about the island of Ireland.

i still can't work out the dup's position. ok ok stop laughing, hear me out. they don't want any divergence from the rest of the uk fine, we all know that and understand it. they also want no hard border. but now they've said corbyn's aim to have a british customs union with the eu is dangerous, hypocritical etc. but surely they know that is the only way those two goals can ever be reconciled? what is the game they think they have a chance of winning here?