how precisely do you see this going? rural gun owners invade urban areas?
i think the issue is that the country is so large, resource rich, and geographically blessed w/ chill neighbors. things will likely remain in stasis here until glob
guys what does stasis mean? why does it mean stability and also apparently instability? and both usages are really old?
― Mordy, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:17 (six years ago) link
tbh Trump is the first president where i'm not sure an election loss would be enough of a reason for him to vacate office.
― omar little, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:18 (six years ago) link
i strongly disagree i think he'll be thrilled to be done with it
― Mordy, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:21 (six years ago) link
otm, like buchanan level.
― difficult listening hour, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:22 (six years ago) link
also, he'd need the armed forces to back him up and they wouldn't
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:22 (six years ago) link
i hope he is! i have little doubt that's the case. but i have a tiny bit of doubt...
i'm not saying he'd be successful either, that tiny tiny part of me just thinks he'd go out kicking and screaming.
― omar little, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:23 (six years ago) link
I was just reading about Omar El Akkad's "American War" yesterday--have you seen that tlg?
― rob
no, do tell
― the late great, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:23 (six years ago) link
not gonna happen as long as the internet/tv is up. take down all communication in the country and things would change pretty fast.
i dont see a rural/city divide because there is still a huge difference between southern cities and northern cities. i don't see Macon siding with New York City against their country brothers
― Hazy Maze Cave (Adam Bruneau), Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:24 (six years ago) link
trump hates losing more than he hates being president
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:24 (six years ago) link
i agree that trump is probably desperately awaiting the end of his term so that he can go back to his previous lifestyle. however, i also think that no matter how much he loses by, he will claim to have been swindled. if he loses by 10 million votes, than he'll say 15 million votes were stolen. many of his supporters will go on the rest of their lives believing it was stolen. that's going to be suuuuper annoying
― i remember the corned beef of my childhood (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:26 (six years ago) link
xpwell, I haven't read it myself, but basically it's speculative fiction about an American civil war in, iirc, about a hundred years from now. i.e., long enough so that sea level rise is a very serious problem; there's also racial hatred, bioterrorism, etc. Sounded very grim but possibly good?
― rob, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:27 (six years ago) link
here's the NYT review: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/27/books/review-american-war-omar-el-akkad.html
― rob, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:28 (six years ago) link
there can a rural/city divide without all of the cities banding together as one. factions of allied cities might be a possibility. or other more stable countries stepping in to provide supplies and occupy the land. another possibility is that i've played too much europa universalis 4
― i remember the corned beef of my childhood (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:36 (six years ago) link
or other more stable countries stepping in to provide supplies and occupy the land
like the chinese?
― the late great, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:40 (six years ago) link
i should say "the PRC", not "the chinese"
― the late great, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:41 (six years ago) link
the refugee flows from 2-3 small civil wars have spurred a strong movement toward fascist reaction across the_west. the movement of many more hundreds of millions of people that will happen as certain latitudes become uninhabitable will be unimaginable
idk climate change scares the shit out of me, i don't have much optimism about it, especially looking at the american political system.
― goole, Wednesday, 28 February 2018 20:50 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 00:01 (six years ago) link
nah
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:09 (six years ago) link
Eventually, after complete economic and ecological collapse. The way our military is dispersed and not allied to to any given region will stall things even after that for a bit but we'll break up into a half dozen warlord states.
Also it probably ends in nuclear annihilation.
― louise ck (milo z), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:19 (six years ago) link
Is it not more likely that ye just split amicably into more reasonably sized units first?
Or god forbid get another few parties?
― things you looked shockingly old when you wore (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:22 (six years ago) link
otoh, the North Korean model of governance is likely to prove extremely durable in the face of economic and ecological collapse, especially if their nuclear capability expands to a size that commands complete respect for its borders.
― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:22 (six years ago) link
lol this is not exactly a one-to-one comparison considering Macon's population is 1/60 that of NYC
― had (crüt), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:25 (six years ago) link
Is it not more likely that ye just split amicably into more reasonably sized units first?Or god forbid get another few parties?
The latter is even more unlikely than the former.
― louise ck (milo z), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:28 (six years ago) link
amicable split would certainly be preferable to civil war but somehow i don’t see the red states going for it
― the late great, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:31 (six years ago) link
Just let them have all the guns and nuclear weapons that would do it
― things you looked shockingly old when you wore (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:32 (six years ago) link
pretty sure that in any civil war Hispanics, blacks, and the poor will suffer most, but y'all keep spitballing
― morning wood truancy (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:37 (six years ago) link
Red states already have all the nukes. No missile silos in the five boroughs iirc.
― Millennial Whoop, wanna fight about it? (Phil D.), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:40 (six years ago) link
that's what you think you know
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 02:45 (six years ago) link
i don't think it will look like either of the civil wars cited tbh, more like the fall of rome
― map, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 04:44 (six years ago) link
i think i see a global oligarchy sharing power and controlling / driving atomized violence among the powerless, or more of the same i guess? but worse. and making old nation-state identities worthless except as virtual death machines.
― map, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 04:50 (six years ago) link
i think some kind of nuclear episode / messy world war is more likely than an american civil war at this point.
― map, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 04:52 (six years ago) link
taking sides: US civil war 2, world war 3, or US civil war 2 DURING world war 3?
― and in my opinionation, the sun is gonna surely shine♪♫ (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:08 (six years ago) link
yes why choose when you can have both
― map, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:10 (six years ago) link
considering the first civil war was over the liberation of people from bondage which was america's economic lifeblood and preserver of social hierarchy, im not seeing a civil war anytime soon
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:20 (six years ago) link
so we’ve ruled out state to state warwhat about internecine conflict like rwanda or yugoslavia
― the late great, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:30 (six years ago) link
probably not; the left is not armed
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:31 (six years ago) link
right ... doesn’t that make it even more likely
― the late great, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 05:42 (six years ago) link
wars usually involve two armed sides iirc
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 06:19 (six years ago) link
not gonna happen in foreseeable future, too diffused
― flappy bird, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 06:39 (six years ago) link
this is my impression of americans posting on this thread who earnestly believe there will be a civil war
*pulls a half-eaten chicken drumstick out from folds of ass* ah reckon there be a civil war in the coming years ah do *takes a bite of the drumstick*
― flopson, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 08:47 (six years ago) link
Chicken lickin
― things you looked shockingly old when you wore (darraghmac), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 09:08 (six years ago) link
I don’t know Macon, but yr larger Southern cities are bluer and bluer.
But my answer to the OP is that the first Civil War never exactly ended.
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 13:52 (six years ago) link
I think that I don't worry about another war between the states as much roving bands of Republicans going full ISIS. Rounding up liberals and broadcasting our executions on liveleaks or whatever.
― how's life, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:06 (six years ago) link
― NBA YoungBoy named Rocky Raccoon (m bison), Tuesday, March 6, 2018 5:31 AM (eight hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
What do you mean by "the left" and does it include the government?
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:23 (six years ago) link
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra), Tuesday, March 6, 2018 1:52 PM (thirty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
Right. We've arguably been in a Cold War of sorts excepting periods of overseas war, hot or cold, or other prompts to national unity, since reconstruction.
― Moo Vaughn, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:24 (six years ago) link
flopson otm
― ogmor, Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:31 (six years ago) link
So, I've thought a lot about this topic because I'm crazy. There are two main factors to figure in when talking about civil war: The history of the region in question, and the technologically mediated shape of civil war over history.
For the first topic, we should of course look at the previous American Civil War. This was a very long time ago, and America was in many respects a different country then, but one can still see some strong parallels.
The previous Civil War was on the issue of slavery, and right here the analogy breaks down because the split among Americans, while real and present, is not based around one overriding issue the way the current split is.
What we see in the case of the American Civil War is a period of about 40 years, beginning with the Era of Good Feelings, in which the notion of America as "one nation" thoroughly breaks down.
My current feeling is that the cultural split isn't as thorough or complete as it was in 1860, that the majority of Americans simply are not ready for a civil war, but this may not be necessary or expected. Ready or not, it may happen at any point, and probably will happen at some point, given the nonexistence of an alternate path which would allow peaceful coexistence.
The other thing to take from this is that opponents of Trump will not start a civil war. The notion of women en masse taking up arms to protest Roe V Wade is frankly ludicrous. What one might see is a violent left-wing act - something along the lines of John Brown's attack. This person is likely to be hailed as a "hero" by wide swaths of progressive America, which will tend to exacerbate existing tensions. Again, this depends upon the nature of the act - there was a left-winger who tried to shoot a Republican leader fairly recently and he was either denounced or - this is key to the narrative today - accused of being a "false flag" actor. You didn't, as far as I know, have that notion in the 1850s.
Given all this, I think the most likely time for a civil war to start will be subsequent to the Presidential election of 2020, should the Republican candidate lose. A certain group already exists who will proclaim any such outcome as "illegitimate", a certain subset of those will find a pretext to take up arms (as in 1860, it is likely they will do this pre-emptively, before any concrete action can be taken against them), and people who find themselves culturally affiliated with that group will feel duty-bound to support them.
As for what any of this will look like in practice, I think we do need to look towards more recent civil wars, particularly the situation in Syria. There's certainly the potential for the multilateral chaos of recent wars. The notion that alignments will occur strictly along state boundaries... well, it's questionable to argue that happened in the 1860s, and very unlikely today. A "war" is, given the nature of the instigators, likely to take the form of a lengthy series of what we would term today "terrorist attacks". A thousand Oklahoma City bombings. An unknown factor will be the role of drones in this conflict. Today it's common to condemn drones on privacy grounds, but if they become the only practical defense against heavily-armed crazies shooting up high schools, they're more likely to become accepted. The ultimate outcome will probably wind up looking like Dick Cheney's wet dream - a totalitarian yet ultimately ineffective "security state".
In case you missed it at the beginning, I'm crazy, so please don't take any of the preceding too seriously.
― ziggy the ginhead (rushomancy), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:32 (six years ago) link
― a man often referred to in the news media as the Duke of Saxony (tipsy mothra)
black iron plantation
people who find themselves culturally affiliated with that group will feel duty-bound to support them
as an ignorant outsider it seems more likely to me that swathes of the GOP and its supporters will heave a massive sigh of relief if Trump doesn't win an election in 2020
― Under the influence of the Ranters (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 14:51 (six years ago) link
well, i guess a lot depends on if the democrats run another doughface in 2020.
― ziggy the ginhead (rushomancy), Tuesday, 6 March 2018 15:06 (six years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 00:01 (six years ago) link
initially looks reassuringBUT a bit of arithmetic shows it’s 28-23 predicting civil war vs no civil warnot the reassurance i was hoping for
― the late great, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 00:16 (six years ago) link
more or less even split between optimism and pessimism i guess
― the late great, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 00:17 (six years ago) link
> 100 years 3
who are these three nostradami
― map, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 02:25 (six years ago) link
a european buddy was telling me how the west (usa/europe) has had peace for a long time now and that it is time for war (he doesn't think the usa has been in actual "war wars" since vietnam apparently)
and he seems to have this backward idea that war will occur the same way it did in the 1900s, like country A attacks country B with tanks, missiles, etc
ya, no
war will come about in new and unique ways, ways that will force us to reconsider the meaning of war and that are specific to our new brave world, a world that heavily relies on technology and psychology
if you don't think mass shootings is a form of war, may the lord have mercy on you
if you don't think the apps on our little handheld devices isn't some type of mind control, bless your innocent heart
if you don't think overcrowded major cities and high cost of living is just going to get worse, i'll be waving goodbye when you move to some small town inland
if you don't think there will be fewer jobs, and robots will take lower-skilled and easy-to-automate jobs, good luck to your future career
if you don't think the high cost of education, and the lack of trades and skilled workers is just out of pure laziness, get your head out of your latte
if you don't think the opioid crisis is being pushed by big pharma and the gov't to kill off the weakest people, hi superman
stop and think about it for a second
we *are* at war
wait jk lol
― F# A# (∞), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 04:37 (six years ago) link
~ Bob Marley
― valorous wokelord (silby), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 04:38 (six years ago) link
https://www.caprishop.com/images/poster_61x92cm_bob_marley_smoke_big.jpg
― F# A# (∞), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 04:42 (six years ago) link
i voted for 20-50. but a vote for >100 years makes much more sense than "so not gonna happen". do the "so not gonna happen" voters think the united states will remain a strife-free country until the end of the world, or do they think that the country will at some point be absorbed by another country or bloc without any internal conflict over the matter? in the long term a civil war happening sometime between 100 years from now and infinity seems much more likely than none, ever.
― and in my opinionation, the sun is gonna surely shine♪♫ (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 05:29 (six years ago) link
history has not ended
― the late great, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 05:47 (six years ago) link
― F# A# (∞)
Keep going bro, I'm a student right now
― flappy bird, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:00 (six years ago) link
I miss my childhood, when history looked like it was over for a decade or so
― valorous wokelord (silby), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:01 (six years ago) link
Ugh yeah and it “didn’t matter” if bush won because he wuz a ceo president
― officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:28 (six years ago) link
what does this have to do with war
― had (crüt), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:33 (six years ago) link
ever heard of the war on your mind?
― flappy bird, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:38 (six years ago) link
or clash of clans? download now
― sleepingbag, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 06:40 (six years ago) link
― flappy bird
swamp dogg, right? good jam
"if you don't think the opioid crisis is being pushed by big pharma and the gov't to kill off the weakest people, hi superman"
most of your post is arguable/defensible as actions that have a strong, oft-unacknowledged political component, but this is some flat-out infowars bullshit here, and spouting it undermines the truths you have already spoken
― ziggy the ginhead (rushomancy), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 15:05 (six years ago) link
The work has rather turned here chaps
― things you looked shockingly old when you wore (darraghmac), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 15:10 (six years ago) link
Worm ffs
insert the old joke about the guy with a flat tire at the mental asylum here
― ziggy the ginhead (rushomancy), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 15:14 (six years ago) link
we jammin
― F# A# (∞), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 17:14 (six years ago) link
guys it's like b movies u can't just TRY to make a trenchant post
― fuck the NRA (Neanderthal), Wednesday, 7 March 2018 17:56 (six years ago) link
"mean world syndrome"has me reaching for a beer, not a bayonet.there's a well fed person next to mewith exceptionally white teethmasturbating to their own righteous indignation
― nicky lo-fi, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 20:26 (six years ago) link
― valorous wokelord (silby), Wednesday, March 7, 2018 6:01 AM (fourteen hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
yeah i kinda miss being mad at progress happening too slowly
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Wednesday, 7 March 2018 20:40 (six years ago) link
I hope it's a civil war, a rude war is terrible.
― Wes Brodicus, Thursday, 8 March 2018 22:01 (six years ago) link
Bumping for the inevitable next week.
― On average, this critic grades 8.3 points lower than other critics (Eric H.), Wednesday, 28 October 2020 17:23 (three years ago) link
the inevitable rehashing of these fears? there's a very high likelihood of manufactured chaos, but armed conflict on a mass scale is way down my list of worries for next week.
― the unappreciated charisma of cows (Aimless), Wednesday, 28 October 2020 17:41 (three years ago) link
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n10/james-meek/what-are-you-willing-to-do“What are you willing to do? On the case for civil war”
― recovering internet addict/shitposter (viborg), Friday, 27 May 2022 17:38 (one year ago) link
(Not to encourage piracy but in the absence of other options, Reader view is one way to take a look over the paywall.)
― recovering internet addict/shitposter (viborg), Friday, 27 May 2022 17:42 (one year ago) link
One of the strange things about the reaction to the invasion of the Capitol was how few of those dismayed by it speculated that they might one day long for just such an assault to succeed. Might a different mob storm into Congress to save democracy, rather than attack it? If an autocrat who has stolen an election is about to have his trashing of American democracy hallowed by Congress, all other recourse having failed, shouldn’t Democrats – or democrats, at least – take direct action? Liberal opinion in North America and Western Europe has tended to be gung-ho about pro-democracy protesters storming ruling institutions in other countries, notably Ukraine in 2014. But it’s one thing to imagine, as Walter encourages her readers to do, the gradual spread of white supremacist, anti-government terrorism across America against a democratic framework, until one day the progressive left, and the people of colour she suggests are likely to be targets of violence, arm and organise for self-protection. It’s another to wake up one morning and find that without any bloodshed or violence, without any seeming change in the smooth running of traffic signals and ATMs and supermarkets, without, even, an immediate wave of arrests or a clampdown on free speech, your country is run by somebody who took power illegally. Something must be done! But what, apart from venting on social media? And by whom? Me? In Ukraine, students and the liberal middle class found fighting allies among football ultras, small farmers and extreme nationalists. Such an alliance would be hard to pull together in the Euro-American world. Describing liberal protests against government corruption and malfeasance in Bulgaria in 2013, Ivan Krastev spoke of ‘the frustration of the empowered’ and an urban middle class that ‘risks remaining politically isolated, incapable of reaching out to other social groups’.