Oscars 2018

That left it down to Darkest Hour and The Shape of Water.

OK, time to shuffle off the mortal voter roll.

Just heard the crazy system for voting best picture, which I guess takes into account second and third and so on choices (I think). Maybe this was on NPR? Anyway, they sort of theorized that Dunkirk and Get Out had the best underdog chances, because they were the most liked and made the most money so would perhaps appear on enough ballots in second or third (or first) place to get enough total votes to win.

Also, had two (female) friends of mine wonder if they would have liked Call Me By Your Name (which they loved) as much if it was set in Indiana and not Italy.

a lake house in Indianapolis, say.

I'm ruling Dunkirk out on the basis of most Academy members viewing these films on screeners (and, as someone commented here, probably doing sudoku at the same time).

Call Me By Your Name feels like a good outside bet to me.

Yeah a preferential ballot is crazy, Oscars should use a good rational voting system like the Electoral College

no shot for CMBYN as bp: we did gay last year

Nah.

roughly i think the odds are

3 Billboards 40%
Shape 35%
Lady Bird 15%
Get Out 10%

CMBYN is also probably the least watched of any of the nominees

Get Out? Surely the voters will think they did black last year ;)

xpost

that's different.

has 538 weighed in?

rly can't see get out winning, despite its being well-positioned to sneak in. the anthony lane review wrung its hands over the movie supposedly proposing we "cannot live together". imagine how oscar voters feel.

Academy kremlinology feels more fun than ever this year. One thing I always want to know (so much I just asked my first ever Quora question about it, to zero response):

Someone, at some point, tabulates the votes and knows what came second, how big the margin was etc. Does this knowledge go to their graves, or is it preserved in some secret Academy archive vault? I'd love it if after 50 years or whatever, this information was released.

Call Me stands the least chance in hell of winning.

It's The Shape of Water, Three Billboards, or Get Out. If TB wins Best Screenplay early, start pouring drinks.

So, am I crazy for predicting Lady Bird, as I did when my parents asked a while back?

Not gonna happen.

that oscar voter "eliminated" an awful lot of movies despite it being a preferential voting system.

Three Billboards is gonna sweep isn't it, although i think Greta is an outside shout for Director.

This can't have hurt

https://subscription-assets.timeinc.com/current/1850_top1_205_thumb.jpg

Watched Pan's Labyrinth with my wife and older daughter last night. They both loved it, and boy is that movie better than Shape of Water. (And yeah, Del Toro really likes stabbing and shooting people in the face). As my daughter (who has not seen SoW) astutely observed, the horrific sadistic violence in Pan's at least makes thematic sense because its perpetrated by horrific sadistic capital F fascists in the midst of fascist Spain, not gratuitously in some government facility in '50s Baltimore or wherever by an inexplicable psychopath.

(Had to look it up, and Pan's lost best foreign film to The Lives of Others, which is fair enough. But had it been nominated for Best Picture, as it might of, say, this year, it sure would have beat the fucking Departed.)

Over dinner last night my wife, who had gone running that morning and talked Oscars with her pals, stated "Boy, no one likes Three Billboards, do they?" She has been tasked with bringing a dish to an Oscar theme party. She is bringing Three Cheeseboards.

Lives of Others is among the most awful of foreign film winners. Sentimental hogwash.

Why, after all these decades, are you confusing Oscar winners with quality?

why, after all these decades, are you so cranky this morning?

Del Toro's Spanish language films are his best, IMO. Must be the excellent catering.

Why, after all these decades, are you confusing Oscar winners with quality?

Because after all these decades their imprimatur can still sometimes draw someone out to see something that is not a superhero film?

I've only just realised that Michael Shannon wasn't nominated for The Shape of Water. I loved him in that more than I've loved anything he's done for ages. I guess the way Del Toro shoots him is a big part of that.

omg this is amazing

Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to present best picture Oscar again

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2018/mar/02/warren-beatty-faye-dunaway-present-best-picture-oscar-again

Oh hell yeah

oh dear:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkqFhfMqz9M

Everyone's going to be high as a novelty kite aren't they? Considering the legalized weed i mean.

piscesx gettin news by Pony Express :)

really don't see a Metcalf upset if the Spirits bypassed her

Stream anyone?

hi!

He's no Chris Rock, that's for damn sure.

great opening monolgue. aw Sam and Woody make me emo..

i'm watching on Proper Telly but stream advice here:
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2018-how-stream-show-1089912?utm_source=twitter

would pay for Rockwell-Harrelson slashfic

I can't wait to find out who wins the jetski

Got one! Thanks, y'all. P. S. Hi!

Haven't seen 3B (and don't wanna), but Rockwell's speech just reminded me of how much I liked him in The Way Way Back.

Woody would be so great in bed, i think.

Eva with it!

fuck me, Eva Marie Saint is 93!

can someone cast her in a movie plz

No rooting interest this year, so I'll duck in and out. But I'm glad I caught "Fred" Hitchcock.

she looks so fantastic

hey this 'montage' before the acting awards is a neat idea

I wondered if "Fred" was a flub, or if that is what some people called him.

I'm glad their doing the montages, too. I'm a sucker for those things.

"she looks like Eva Marie Saint, in On the Waterfront"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZuIZaLHy_KQ

(xpost) I took it as what some people who were close enough to him actually called him--partly as a joke, maybe.

So, did Moonlight win or what?