the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

he should know his place

at least Sir Bradley Wiggins is having another bad day.

you mean drug cheat and car advert faux sentimentalist Lord Bradley Weller of PEDington?

Need to strip those Golds away before he takes them to Cash Converters!

Most recent election results for European social democratic parties:

Fr: PS 7%
De: SPD 20.5%
Nl: PvDA 6%
Gr: PASOK 6%
Es: PSOE 22.6%
It: PD: 19%
At: SPÖ: 26.9%
Se: S 31%
Cz: ČSSD 7.3%
Dk: S 26.3%
Pt: PS 32.3%
Fi: SDP 16.5%
No: AP 27.4%
Ch: 18.8%
Is: S 12.1%

UK: LAB 40%

— Jon Stone (@joncstone) March 5, 2018

Need to bear in mind the split between FPTP and other systems there though.

issue examined with in the responses

(unless this was the joke yr making)

How many of those have been in government/implementing austerity measures since 2008, just out of interest?

another masterpiece of set design for the tories

pic.twitter.com/mHjUT7wCLO

— Chris Mandle (@chris_mandle) March 5, 2018

haha

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/011/301/ccd.jpg

Paddy Power have moved JRM ahead of Corbyn as favourite to be next PM (4/1) - WilliamHill still going with Corbyn

Other main difference is WilliamHill have pushed 2022 election right out to 9/1 - Paddy Power have it as 7/4 favourite

Ominously both say (2022...or later)

what odds will they give me on corbyn being taken out by the deep state long before 2022

these odds just reflect where the (not always smart) money is going though innit? What I don't understand is why is it that the oddschecker Most Popular Bets pie-chart shows half the money has been staked on 2018 election, but yet it isn't the fav.

I am going to stop saying that JRM would be an unmitigated disaster if he ran, cos the fucking UK electorate.

i'd like to think that even the uk electorate would balk at electing lord snooty as prime minister but yeah since a majority also voted to leave the eu i guess anything is possible in our current hellscape

Political odds making is meaningless, its just advertising to the big bookies, its such an infinitessimally small part of their business they don't care about getting it wrong, just grabbing attention

People walking off with those stubby biros is a bigger concern to bookmakers than political forecasting

multiple xps - all this means is that the bookies rate a Tory leadership change as being more likely than another snap election. It’s flawed thinking because for JRM to get through to the last two, you’d need the parliamentary party to vote him in and I’m not convinced he wouldn’t be blocked well before that stage. He’s more of a stalking horse imo.

i'd like to think that even the uk electorate would balk at electing lord snooty as prime minister but yeah since a majority also voted to leave the eu i guess anything is possible in our current hellscape

He only has to win the leadership challenge to be PM though, not election. Is more than feasible he wins a leadership bid and then loses the election

Point taken about political odds being not entirely meaningful, especially in light of events of the last few years, still interesting though!

they love a bit of strength allied to a decent modicum of stability does the UK electorate. JRM might just have that because he can ad-lib absolute fatuous bollocks in an upper rp accent on a number of subjects without getting interrupted.

I'm far from convinced JRM would even get through the Parliamentary nominations process for the Tories, and if another sufficiently Brexity candidate is on the ballot then he definitely won't.

A lot depends on whether May hangs on until 2019, if Britain has already left the EU by the time of the next contest it could be completely different. Then again they could find themselves with a very sudden collapse in support once Brexit is out of the way.

Soubry to pin Rees-Mogg in a steel cage match at this year's Tory conference: 14/1

so if not JRM, then who? Because I want a piece of those odds!

Johnson The Younger

Final 2, you’re looking at Rudd (nailed on imo) and a Brexiteer candidate. The parliamentary party can’t block all the candidates that they would likely wish to - Johnson, Gove, Rees-Mogg, whoever else throws their hat in - and the membership will go for the most Brexity option.

Would've thought Rudd would have to win back several thousand of her own constituents first. Not as much of an issue for the usual suspects right now except Boris maybe.

Brexcitement

Johnson The Younger

― calzino, Monday,

Damn, you can't even get odds on this!

100/1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy power, shit I'm unwittingly turning into Ray Winstone here.

I think the Toby Young debacle might’ve hampered little Johnson but so might the nickname Little Johnson - fly, my pretties!

that Tory 2010 intake, what a golden generation!

a golden shower

100/1 with Ladbrokes and Paddy power, shit I'm unwittingly turning into Ray Winstone here.

― calzino, Monday

Oh yea saw that now - was looking in wrong list, PM list, not Tory boss list

Would've thought Rudd would have to win back several thousand of her own constituents first. Not as much of an issue for the usual suspects right now except Boris maybe.

This is true; it’s also true that they will move her to another seat (read somewhere last week that her team are looking for one). If there’s a GE, you would expect them to put her in some safe shire seat that becomes available. Similarly to Ruth Davidson, if she chooses to come south they’ll find a seat for her.

UK electorate is not going to vote for yet another Dolores Umbridge

I guess Davidson isn't quite the horrible schoolmarm. Hard to pin down what she is. Debate Club bloodhound

She’s a lot more palatable to swing voters than many of the options. They don’t have a unity candidate that exists, so it’s a case of MPs voting to keep their least preferred options out of the final two. Davidson and Rudd, incidentally, are both hugely unpopular with the membership - see the CH members’ polls: https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/03/no-change-in-our-next-tory-leader-survey-rees-mogg-is-top-then-gove-then-johnson.html

If Davidson came south to find a safe Tory seat then that would be the end of her, credibility-wise. Can't really see her fitting in in Penge or somewhere.

penge is labour anyway

I think there's a safe Scottish seat in Dumfries.

I wonder how many ppl will be voting for their next leader, they've been very coy about their membership size for the last 5 years. Brandon Lewis was claiming is was impossible to count their numbers because it is handled by various local associations, lol!

Davidson's not listed in that CH poll, (not that I think she'd roar to the front or anything, but I can't imagine her placing below 10%)

She's not a Tory MP, that's why.

does she have to be?

(technically from a tory rules POV i mean, politically i assume it would be tricky: alec douglas hume wasn't an MP tho he was of course in the lords)

Tugendhat at 40/1 would be my bet.

A very popular politician...

She was encouraged by the Scottish Conservative Party's Director of Media Ramsay Jones[11] to join the party and stand for the House of Commons seat of Glasgow North East at the 2009 by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP and Speaker of the House, Michael Martin. She finished in third place, with 1,075 votes and a 5.2% share of the vote; losing to Labour's candidate, Willie Bain.

She tried again unsuccessfully in the same constituency at the 2010 general election the following year, where she finished in fourth place with 1,569 votes and a 5.3% share of the vote.[12][13]

Then after coming a distant fourth in Glasgow Kelvin, Davidson was elected to the Scottish Parliament on the Glasgow region list.[20] After the election, she was appointed by Goldie as the Conservative spokesperson for Culture, Europe and External Relations.[4]

Goldie?

lol!