Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

but countries with sovereign debt problems are like filthy animals to me

FAANG were hit softly in the presence of those hit hardest

how many farmers do we hurt to help how many steel workers? MAGA

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/american-farmers-trump-voting-states-may-get-hit-hardest-trade-n859396

trump’s diet should indicate his lack of regard for farmers

Big dummy clearly had nothing to do with positive stock market performance, but how clear is it that his dumbness is precipitating its decline? Seems an overdue correction, tbh.

It's a combination of things, like usual, but the market is already overpriced, interest rates are rising for the first time in forever, there are stronger hints of inflation than there have been since gas hit $4 a gallon before the last crash, and all the tariff hard-manning from Trump isn't helping at all.

Thinking about a bit of profit-taking seems natural under the circumstances, so that fear could easily get the upper hand over greed. And with all the computerized trading in place, it will probably happen in a very compressed time span. Even a modest 10%correction will look shocking if most of it happens in three hours.

Think that will make a down market hard(er) to pin on the GOP in November?

The broader market needs to pull back at least 20% more before I would call it a correction. It was on steroids last year.

curious at what kind of meltdown the market would have if china said they'll stop buying our bonds. they kinda have us by the balls.

Probably not not that big a deal. Many feared inflation/collapse of confidence as the Fed bought 2 trillion in treasuries over the past decade. We didn't get wage inflation because global trade, but lots of asset inflation in equity and home prices as the liquidity sloshed through financial markets.

China's moves towards petroleum purchases in yuan may be a larger issue, in the long term, particularly if any third parties start buying in yuan as well. I've seen estimates that attributing 20-30% of the dollar's value to it being the unit of exchange for the energy trade.

thats why we do the saudis bidding

Of course, those $2 trillion don't entirely erase the US financial losses incurred by the US economy during the 2008 crash, but the Fed also took a hell of a lot of bad-debt-backed bonds off the hands of commercial and investment banks at the same time.

I’m not sure if China moving towards paying for oil in Yuan is anything more than sabre rattling, in the end it will increase the value of the yuan which will hurt manufacturing and exports and China is not far enough along the transition to a more domestically driven economy fornit jot to hurt right now.

In that it weakens the dollar and will drive inflation it’s probably part of the wider trade war. It’s probably inevitable in the long run so it doesn’t hurt to get the systems in place I recall this being threatened/tried multiple times over the last 15 years.

happy may day 2018!

when was the last time the dow jones industrial stalled for four months straight after the latest biggest republican income tax cut in US history?

It's just gearing up, like cartoon characters running in place before zipping off.

Republicans be lining the walls of their banana stands with money rn.

i'm sure the algorithms will take over and we'll end the day +300 or some shit

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump-trade-economists-warning-great-depression

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/top-millennial-injuries-reported-at-urgent-care-facilities

oh those whacky millennials and their avocados! hmmm, reminds me I ought to investigate buying some avocado futures on margin.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/09/trump-federal-reserve-independence-523275

Warsh added that he did not have the impression that Trump viewed the central bank as an independent organization meant to make decisions in the best long-term interests of the economy rather than at the bidding of the White House or any other political institution. “In some sense the broader notion of an independent agency, that’s probably not an obvious feature to the president,” he said.

Asked if the president appeared to understand the historical importance of the Fed’s independence from partisan political pressure, Warsh said: “This might be a good time for a no comment.”

it'll be nice to know we spent 1.5t of potential future stimulus on propping up the tenth year of this business cycle to get good numbers for trump

happy may day 2018!

when was the last time the dow jones industrial stalled for four months straight after the latest biggest republican income tax cut in US history?

― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, May 1, 2018 9:21 AM (one week ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tbf, the market is up 20% since Trump took office. Some of that is probably attributable to the fact that the market anticipated the tax cuts plus more, and we're now stalled out because there's no "plus more." But you can't really say the Trump stock market has been bad so far.

I've actually rad that the millenials are prine to nicks and cust in the genital area from to much shaving - flatbush and donger

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/14/news/economy/trump-china-tariffs/index.html

yippe kay ay

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

Trump's economic policies whims are preposterously erratic and self-contradictory. It's like he's deliberately trying to stampede the herd.

Cool that the real economy that was essentially humming along despite this motherfucker is going to start choking on tarrifs

I guess we get to find out if feigned toughness towards our trade partners is a potent enough pose to offset the damage done by plunging the country into any unnecessary recession.

The toughness is feigned, but the tariffs involve real honest-to-god money.

Incredibly, Trump's opinions on tariffs are amongst the most unsophisticated opinions that he has.

wait that implies that he has any sophisticated opinions at all

no it doesn't

Is there anyone behind these tariffs other than Trump? Wilbur Ross or someone like that? Steve Mnuchin? Who the fuck is even left in his administration anymore?

I mean is this literally just Trump's own harebrained scheme?

I'm sure someone who knows what a percentage is is helping him pick numbers

Trump makes 'decisions' the way a hungry stoner shops for groceries. Except millions of people pay for it when he decides that buying a case of Cadbury eggs is an amazing way to demolish his paycheck.

63,000 open trucking jobs

^ not exactly a "shitbin" indicator but it's kind of wild.

handbasket seats vacant one stop before hell

idg that yield curve post, yield curve inverting is a leading indicator it's only flattened now

I think the concern is that the teeter might totter.

i don't think flattening is a leading indicator tho

What kind of an indicator is the 87,000+ people on LinkedIn referring to themselves as "thought leaders"?

meme infection indicator?

I miss the days of the beginning of this shitbin thread where I had some semblance of an idea on how the economy worked. Now its all just endless sock market gains.

The actual economy seems to anecdotally be fairly strong depending on where you are, unemployment is low, people are spending money on stuff, more of them have health insurance, the minimum wage is higher in multiple cities and states. Tech startups are the preferred speculative bubble of the coke-fueled investor class right now, and that generates gentrification and real estate speculation as an externality, but man maybe like…stock market gains are tracking with the real economy??

NB: I don’t know a damn thing

lol nope

i mean those gains aren't tracking with the real economy, although a lot of smoke and mirrors are being used to make one think it might be