the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

What are you struggling with Andrew? This is laughable, its not going to happen.

That seems ... far from clear? Your thirst for it is more certain, but I’ve never figured out why.

I don't want Brexit to happen - but it's just going to. And should it not (only saying in a never say never way), its absolutely not going to be like that. That para is a fairy tale of events.

heighten the contradictions or go home

I don't think anyone on here has a thirst for Brexit. But fuckwits who think you can just put it under a magicians hat and make it disappear without consequences are some of the most embarrassing ppl in politics r/n.

Did you read the paragraph immediately after that bit in italics?

Still, you need there to be a really decisive shift in public opinion - going into this without 60:40 polling in favour of remaining is a recipe for disaster whether they win or lose.

"Where Next for Brexit?, a separate but overlapping talking shop whose heavyweight attendees included Gina Miller, Alastair Campbell, Lord Adonis and AC Grayling. "

the crème de la crème

The only referendums I'd back would be privatise the bbc or liquidate the Windsors. But in the case of a 2nd ref, anything less than a Putinesque win is a defeat, or a conspiracy or just lose lose whatever the fucking result.

I agree with Matt in so far that a close reversal wouldn’t help in the long run (tho it would definitely help in the short term as regards not plummeting off a cliff).

Which is to say that I also agree with calzino but I’m not sure there’s a lot of people thinking that (what his fuckwits think).

Matt I did read the para after and then stopped there. Its merely striking a tone of scepticism about the scenario and talks about the polling in the case of a phantom 2nd referendum when actually what you need to see is the tide turning in a major way right now for there to be anything like a push for a 2nd ref.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk

if these poor lambs feel so strongly about overturning the referendum they should maybe try and get their campaign fronted by people who aren't the same neolib wankers that drove people into the arms of Leave in the first place

my feeling is more that there will be a Fudge

can one of you mansplain to me the different milestones here? I assume March 29th is the last possible date for the EU to revoke Article 50, i.e. point of no return. Does the government even have to present a final deal to Parliament prior to then?

people wanted something symbolic; take back control

not many people who voted Brexit cared about customs unions or thought about Northern Ireland

they just want to say "we stuck it to them"

ultimately it should be quite easy to satisfy this sentiment without really doing anything as silly as leaving the eu

this seems really obvious?

I assume until negotiations are closed and there can be some paperwork on how badly Team May has fucked everyone over, that 60/40 isn't likely. The middle two quartiles of any given population really prefer to not give a shit about important stuff until it's on the doorstep.

tombot, there are actually really no lines in the sand. there is a single paragraph of EU Constitution that describes article 50/ as nobody really thought anyone would be mad enough. it's possible to just kick the can down the road indefinitely really

i don't think it is easy tho, what deal could possibly be made that would appease the sovereignty/stick it to the technocrats bloc? the question for remainers is really about whether there are enough shook middle ground voters who can be persuaded to switch sides. i'm not sure that most of the serious remainers really care about what the political fallout of that kind of turnaround might be.

second referendum in the near future would be a disaster. leave would win and the issue would be double underlined for two generations

there's no good outcome from a second referendum whether it's another Leave vote or a fractional Remain. the pols that are making this the focus of their efforts right now are just idiots.

rename it UK+EU and give everyone in England a special hat that only they are allowed to wear

tbf from this side of the pond that's basically how it looks already. except I think you mean "a special currency"

not many people who voted Brexit cared about customs unions or thought about Northern Ireland

― plax (ico), Saturday, April 28, 2018 10:16 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

brexit voters not really caring about or understanding the details of the customs union or the single market etc just seems to make it easier for the hardcore brexiteer politicians and pundits to frame anything other than the hardest of brexits as the metropolitan elite undermining the expressed will of the british ppl etc etc, which is impossible to counter with technical arguments about the consequences of leaving the CU etc, because as you say, that's not really what it's about for most people

I've thought about that, we just say that Jacob Rees mogg is trying to sabotage Brexit by getting stuck on all this customs union and trade agreement bean counting when we should just be getting down to brass tacks and making sure those Brussels sprouts respect our freedom hats

if he really cared about Brexit he wouldn't keep criticising this government who busy staring at the heads of all the EU countries

Everything we know about everything that we’ll find out over the next six months is that it’ll only move the needle in one direction - a definite leave vote is far from impossible. I realise that ILX is bound, for reasons, to the idea that no-one ever changes their minds.

honestly, no reason to have a second referendum

and look, I'm Irish and in Ireland there's no EU referendum that people don't enjoy just as much the second time

" I realise that ILX is bound, for reasons, to the idea that no-one ever changes their minds."

start reading some Western European history, dawg. Instead of that Marvel shite (not meant as a serious swipe and in jest!)

honestly though, just make juncker get a face tatt of Vera Lynn

and start rapping?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Db5m55UXcAUumOq.jpg

S Times back on track.

I want a freedom hat

Twitter appears to be blocked where I am but I am sure someone has pointed out Sasha Talavera - the Swansea academic who came up with the data for that study - is a professor of Finance and happens to be one of the founders of Vox Ukraine, a free-market lobbying / analytics group with a pretty clear agenda when it comes to Russia.

If only Putin knew some of us would become FSB moles if he just put a couple of grand in our accounts. I had a dream last night that I was on an impossibly huge yacht and someone (possibly a Putin employee) was offering me a house with an indoor swimming pool if I worked for them, but then I was going in circles forever and couldn't get to some room where I had to go to accept the job!

Dreams now! Is there anything those Russians haven't infiltrated

Well at least the latest weather front from Russia is apparently going to be a heatwave, rather than the invading "Beast" that was completely to blame for Windrush, UK GDP flatlining etc.... Anyway, Corbyn can get some pro-tips from that other 80's Soviet mole outed by the Sunday Times, Neil Kinnock.

Jo Johnson being asked about Amber Rudd on Peston now - he supports her remaining in post. Iiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnteresting dinner table for him tonight.

Amelie's husband is no gentleman, for sure.

start reading some Western European history, dawg. Instead of that Marvel shite (not meant as a serious swipe and in jest!)

No, that is a fair point, my knowledge can be a little patchy for biographical reasons. Is there anything in particular you’d recommend, I’ve been meaning to make my way through the Hobsbawms at some point?

Obviously something that would be handy for a 60:40 split at another referendum would be some sort of massive gammon apoplexy.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-talks-latest-eu-immigration-free-movement-offer-a8326101.html

I honestly don’t get second referendum people. The first one was massively toxic and horrific; even if Remain had won I don’t get how people expected the country to just carry on as before? We’d probably be seeing UKIP polling high again if that had happened.

There’s also no public support for a Remain vote even after almost two years of continuous bad news, higher prices in the shops, and even the the threat to the union.

It’s not that people can’t change their minds; it’s that the evidence so far is that they aren’t doing so.

xp
I'm not much of a reccommender AF tbh, but will go with what I'm currently on, currently am on Margaret MacMillan's Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World, which is a lot of fun tbh. Last night I learned that Lloyd George's geographical knowledge was barely infant school level!