Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

happy may day 2018!

when was the last time the dow jones industrial stalled for four months straight after the latest biggest republican income tax cut in US history?

It's just gearing up, like cartoon characters running in place before zipping off.

Republicans be lining the walls of their banana stands with money rn.

i'm sure the algorithms will take over and we'll end the day +300 or some shit

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/03/donald-trump-trade-economists-warning-great-depression

https://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/top-millennial-injuries-reported-at-urgent-care-facilities

oh those whacky millennials and their avocados! hmmm, reminds me I ought to investigate buying some avocado futures on margin.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/09/trump-federal-reserve-independence-523275

Warsh added that he did not have the impression that Trump viewed the central bank as an independent organization meant to make decisions in the best long-term interests of the economy rather than at the bidding of the White House or any other political institution. “In some sense the broader notion of an independent agency, that’s probably not an obvious feature to the president,” he said.

Asked if the president appeared to understand the historical importance of the Fed’s independence from partisan political pressure, Warsh said: “This might be a good time for a no comment.”

it'll be nice to know we spent 1.5t of potential future stimulus on propping up the tenth year of this business cycle to get good numbers for trump

happy may day 2018!

when was the last time the dow jones industrial stalled for four months straight after the latest biggest republican income tax cut in US history?

― reggie (qualmsley), Tuesday, May 1, 2018 9:21 AM (one week ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tbf, the market is up 20% since Trump took office. Some of that is probably attributable to the fact that the market anticipated the tax cuts plus more, and we're now stalled out because there's no "plus more." But you can't really say the Trump stock market has been bad so far.

I've actually rad that the millenials are prine to nicks and cust in the genital area from to much shaving - flatbush and donger

http://money.cnn.com/2018/06/14/news/economy/trump-china-tariffs/index.html

yippe kay ay

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html

Trump's economic policies whims are preposterously erratic and self-contradictory. It's like he's deliberately trying to stampede the herd.

Cool that the real economy that was essentially humming along despite this motherfucker is going to start choking on tarrifs

I guess we get to find out if feigned toughness towards our trade partners is a potent enough pose to offset the damage done by plunging the country into any unnecessary recession.

The toughness is feigned, but the tariffs involve real honest-to-god money.

Incredibly, Trump's opinions on tariffs are amongst the most unsophisticated opinions that he has.

wait that implies that he has any sophisticated opinions at all

no it doesn't

Is there anyone behind these tariffs other than Trump? Wilbur Ross or someone like that? Steve Mnuchin? Who the fuck is even left in his administration anymore?

I mean is this literally just Trump's own harebrained scheme?

I'm sure someone who knows what a percentage is is helping him pick numbers

Trump makes 'decisions' the way a hungry stoner shops for groceries. Except millions of people pay for it when he decides that buying a case of Cadbury eggs is an amazing way to demolish his paycheck.

63,000 open trucking jobs

^ not exactly a "shitbin" indicator but it's kind of wild.

handbasket seats vacant one stop before hell

idg that yield curve post, yield curve inverting is a leading indicator it's only flattened now

I think the concern is that the teeter might totter.

i don't think flattening is a leading indicator tho

What kind of an indicator is the 87,000+ people on LinkedIn referring to themselves as "thought leaders"?

meme infection indicator?

I miss the days of the beginning of this shitbin thread where I had some semblance of an idea on how the economy worked. Now its all just endless sock market gains.

The actual economy seems to anecdotally be fairly strong depending on where you are, unemployment is low, people are spending money on stuff, more of them have health insurance, the minimum wage is higher in multiple cities and states. Tech startups are the preferred speculative bubble of the coke-fueled investor class right now, and that generates gentrification and real estate speculation as an externality, but man maybe like…stock market gains are tracking with the real economy??

NB: I don’t know a damn thing

lol nope

i mean those gains aren't tracking with the real economy, although a lot of smoke and mirrors are being used to make one think it might be

I can well believe that

I don't know, my impression is that macro economic indicators - hiring/employment/spending/profits/corporate earnings, etc. - are strong. What's not strong are wages, debt is high, income inequality is terrible and getting worse, health care costs are rising, etc. I suppose the question is how to join those two threads. Toss in a flat market following years of sustained growth and record highs, the general instability of trade/politics and the like, and I think people who know are nervous. And yet, it's unclear what to do with that uncertainty. It's like the entire US economy is holding its breath.

smoke and mirrors are essential parts of the economy

Shell game for sure.

smoke and mirrors are essential parts of the economy

― Hazy Maze Cave (Adam Bruneau), Thursday, June 28, 2018 9:56 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

hah I feel the same way when people talk about 'waste' in the insurance and heathcare industries. if it was a totally efficient system there'd be hundreds of thousands of layoffs.

yeah I mean everybody knows most of the white collar workforce doesn't do anything important

Don't tell that to the GOP, they'll try to shrink the size of government.

https://res.cloudinary.com/s8/image/fetch/c_scale,d_missing_imx2hb.png,f_auto,q_auto,w_350/https://cdn.waterstones.com/bookjackets/large/9780/2412/9780241263884.jpg

ayo Im a paralegal I resemble this remark. well my added value to this place is do things that people who charge $450-$800/hr shouldn't be doing.

yeah I mean everybody knows most of the white collar workforce doesn't do anything important

― devops mom (silby), Thursday, June 28, 2018 10:15 PM (forty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The big tax cut bill the R's rammed through now allows megacorporations to repatriate nearly a trillion in profits currently parked overseas at heavily discounted tax rates. The supposed idea was they'd invest it in US expansion and employees, but the open secret is that they'd be more likely to use it for massive stock buy-backs to inflate their stock prices -- and possibly absorb a lot of executives' stock options getting cashed out.

My imagination wonders if, after the big stock buybacks happen at bubble prices, the market will crash and all those corporate profits get turned into dust and ashes.

If you look at the market for the time pre 09/2008 until now, yeah smoke and mirrors. Nothing drastically changed with the broader market after the election except that a criminal got elected and people decided to stop caring even more about fundamentals. Oddly enough gold has stayed really wishy washy this year.

I am dying for the market to crash. Sorry. But it's super inflated right now and it's not healthy for anyone longterm.

The current unemployment rate is 3.8! TRUST ME, we’re not having a recession any time soon. And we should all be very very thankful for that.