Dynasty, s3: Canadian Politics 2018

also that happened:

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-police-called-after-members-of-far-right-group-storm-into-vices-office

jusqu'ici tout vas bien.

Whoa:

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/05/25/ndp-surges-ahead-in-poll.html

I've gotten to know pretty much which polls to discount in an American election, but I don't know about polling firms here--legitimate?

"Far right group surges into Vice offices" - I would assume this was just the regular staff?

As always, ignore polls and brace for the worst. Two weeks is a long time.

otoh if this is the best attack line the Tories can find that is indeed a good sign

two days of front page oil wrestling! we haven’t had this spirit here since 1979 ... pic.twitter.com/VVLDUSqJU8

— twelvethirtysix (@1236) May 25, 2018

Forum is a major polling firm and reasonably well-respected, I think, but they did generally show higher Liberal numbers than other firms last time. We'd probably want to wait for a couple more polls showing similar results before we start to buy it.

Ekos is still just showing a tie, although what all the polls are showing is that the NDP has momentum: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/05/a-volatile-electorate-producing-a-newly-tied-race/ .

I thought this was interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ontario-1990-election-1.4675425 . Surprising now to consider that, in 1990, only two polls were conducted during the election campaign. The frequency of polls today, the increased availability of riding-level info, and the the ability of people to organize over social media means both that strategic voting (with actual strategy) is more feasible than it used to be and also that polls can actually shape the election more than they used to. I think that happened with the 2015 federal election and it might be happening again.

And that's a tie in the popular vote. When you factor in the efficiency of the Tory vote and the trend that older and richer people can be counted on more reliably to show up on voting day, a tie in the popular vote likely still means more seats for the Tories.

yeah IDGAF about the popular vote; my original expectation of a Tory minority still feels pretty safe to me

The only thing I'm comfortable predicting right now is that the Liberals will not win the most seats. I didn't feel safe predicting anything before the debate, even that. (My partner can back me up that I raised it as a distinct possibility back then that the NDP could come up the middle and eke out a win.)

When is that? If I'm gonna watch I'll need a stiff drink or seven.

I meant the May 7 debate. After that, I started feeling more confident that the Libs were out of the running to win the most seats (but not out of the running to possibly govern as a junior coalition partner). It seemed like a lot of pundits were already expecting an easy Tory win even before then.

A source tells me the Ontario PCs will roll out new ads tomorrow morning that cite Bob Rae and basically represent NDP government of the 90s like the dustbowl. #ONpoli

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018

lol I hope the NDP war room is braced for this devastating and not-at-all-desperate salvo

— Luke Savage (@LukewSavage) May 26, 2018

It's nice for the NDP that Rae was kind enough to switch (rejoin, really) parties over a decade ago.

I'm in the minority in that I tend to think that Rae (like Wynne) was pretty good. I wonder if the NDP might have done better if, any time it came up, they just owned the Rae years, pointed out some of the good things that was done, admitted that it was a mistake to abrogate collective agreements (even if Rae Days were less harsh than Harris's approach to making cuts), and stressed that we are no longer living in 1990-95, especially now that we have voters who were not even born in 1995.

we are no longer living in 1990-95

Obv, this is the urgent and key point.

Yeah, I don't think they need to do much to respond to these attacks. They're incredibly weak.

speaking of which did y'all hear Hitler joined the NDP, damn

those ford boys have some chutzpah accusing anyone else of anti semitism

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/10/06/doug_ford_booed_for_reference_to_jewish_lawyer_account_dentist.html

I just donated to Joel Harden. After reviewing the Lib and NDP platforms, the NDP are easily better on home care and faculty renewal, which are probably the two issues that affect me most directly. In principle, I tend to prefer their views on socializing Hydro and avoiding the P3 model for infrastructure. Harden also identifies as a democratic socialist, citing Libby Davies and Niki Ashton as models.

Anyone have any thoughts on Trudeau's stepping in to block the Chinese takeover of Aecon? The issue still seems a little nebulous to me. It's a surprisingly protectionist move for him but I can see credible reasons why it might be the right thing to do.

Final ON debate about to start

Wow @ Wynne: "I am sorry that more people don't like me" in her opening statement!

Not sure if I can take this much Doug

Live streaming here if you can stomach it

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/how-to-watch-leaders-debate-may-27-1.4679033

Lol "the NDP are running radical activists as candidates who take their inspiration from Adolf Hitler"

The Wynne/Horwath dynamic here is incredible, like sisters who hate each other.

Maybe it's the podcast producer in me but I can't fucking stand crosstalk. I had to turn it off.

"It's insulting that those of us who have worked so hard are now being told that we have to make way for apparently the next generation,” said homeowner Mary Lavin

Like, I'm pretty sure that's how generations work.

taxes that they have the option to defer, it really should be noted

We, citizens of Canada, are now proud owners of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, I would like to congratulate everyone in this thread for this achievement.

Wow, fuck Trudeau.

uuuuuuuuuuugh jfc

https://ottawa.craigslist.ca/hvo/d/for-sale-stalled-and/6601355647.html

oh man

Nestled in a cosy right of way, with mountain, river and ocean views, and through prime agricultural and dense residential real estate in Vancouver's red-hot housing market! Close to schools, day cares and community centres. (the neighbours can be a little loud, but we find it's easiest just to ignore them.

fuck trudeau

Seriously, this is the angriest I've ever been at the guy.

yeah same.

Only redeeming thing that could happen at this point is that they sell it back to the first nations communities but who am I kidding.

Canada has been Alberta's oyster for far too long.

such an incredibly desperate move from the canadian gov't

it's times like these when i think can the gov't be this dumb or do they know something we don't?

either way, even from a business/oil perspective, this isn't a good move

further proves my point that this country is incredibly divided because oil benefits fewer and fewer people every decade

let's see how long it'll take people to rethink the economy before its collapse

From the Toronto Star:

But others were quick to criticize the decision. The Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation condemned the move, saying it would saddle taxpayers with costs that should be borne by the private sector.

“This decision represents both a colossal failure of the Trudeau government to enforce the law of the land, and a massive, unnecessary financial burden on Canadian taxpayers,” the federation said in a statement.

“This move sets a terrible precedent and signals to other prospective investors that large projects such as pipelines cannot be built by private industry in Canada,” it said.

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May called it a “huge subsidy to fossil fuels.

“Kinder Morgan laughing all the way to the bank. KM gets $4.5 billion and walks away. Canada to raise money to build $7.4 billion project,” May said on Twitter.

You know you made a mistake when May and the CTF kinda agree on something.

more than maybe anything else he's done so far, Trudeau deserves to be crushed (electorally speaking) for this

if there's an event in your city protesting this today, please attend. for vancouverites it's 5.30, next to science world

MORE: This is what speakers at the #stopkindermorgan rally are seeing from the stage area. @CTVVancouver #bcpoli #canpoli pic.twitter.com/D4qu5pZXDh

— Penny Daflos (@PennyDaflos) May 30, 2018

Does the TMX announcement has any influence on the Ontario race?

I don't think it would (but I'm often wrong). Even if people were to confuse provincial parties with federal ones, the Tories and the NDP - the two frontrunners - both oppose this plan. (Unless maybe the Liberals experience a surge because people in Ontario are excited about this.)

Tooclosetocall is apparently projecting that the NDP could win a plurality of votes but the PCs could win a majority government, which seems obscene unless we stop whipping MPPs (but it might be because I am drunk tbf): http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/projections-update-for-may-30th-almost.html