the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

I hope

realise i'm being v 'stephen bush says stephen bush says' but i thought this seemed absurd and plausible:

it may be that there is no relationship with the EU - not Brexit, not Remain - that can command a majority of votes in Parliament.

our new relationship with brussels will be a quantum superposition where we are simultaneously both in and out of the european union at the same time

Schrodinger's prevaricating and full of shit cat!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/daily-mail-paul-dacre-resign-new-editor-geordie-greig-a8388316.html

I don't really know what the editorial difference between the Mail and MOS is beyond the Remain/Brexit positions, but this Grieg guy looks like a complete twat as well.

I'm working on the assumption that when it comes down to the choice between 'shatter this fragile government' vs 'decide precisely which flavour of Brexit you want', most if not all Labour MPs will plump for the former. Including Corbyn (and if he doesn't...)

I'm also working on the assumption that all Tory MPs know this full well, including Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve and whoever, and May will therefore be able to command enough votes to squeak through.

So therefore all this Tory dickwaving is pretty much that, it's entirely about jockeying for position to be the next leader/PM and nothing to do with the EU at all, except for the fact that literally everyone else on the hook while said dickwaving goes on.

dacre and greig fucking hate each other iirc, so i’m okay with this purely on the grounds it’ll eat at him until the day he finally dies

Dacre = immigrants/poor people/Muslims/people selling alcopops all threatening Britain
Greig = I like going to parties with Kate Moss and Samantha Cameron, oh look there's some poor people voting Labour, why must they insist on spoiling all this fun?

Given the choice I'd go for the latter every time.

alcopops are rank tho

Considering the alternative to Greig was apparently the absolute unit of goblin dung that is Tony Gallagher this is a relative relief.

this kind of bad relativism makes me think of how Chukka + Yvette would be considered hard left socialists in the US!

boris Johnson speculating on how Trump would handle Brexit, were he in charge of delivering it:

“He’d go in bloody hard … There’d be all sorts of breakdowns, all sorts of chaos. Everyone would think he’d gone mad. But actually you might get somewhere. It’s a very, very good thought.”

^ some language-as-a-virus right at the end there

I think I've heard quite a few BBC correspondents on R4/WS/R5 recently that would probably agree with him by the type of comments they make about Trump. No Boris, it's not even a very good fart. His hamfisted trade-warring with the EU will already cost the US economy dearly in the future, that's the "somewhere" he has got them to!

An extremely good rule of thumb is that anyone who thinks the Millennium Bug was an overhyped squib, rather than a tremendously severe risk that was solved through years of hard work and planning, is a dangerous fucking idiot. Guess what Boris Johnson thinks? pic.twitter.com/kZJn2xo4HH

— John B (@johnb78) June 8, 2018

So basically its looking like soft Brexit - not least because voting for no option (because MPs can't decide what they want in enough numbers) probably means WTO - and I don't think we have an army of trade negotiators.

And then its going to be about how betrayed that section of the public which voted for Brexit and really wanted out of the institution feel about it and what they would do in the next general election. Do they sit it out, or what? (Do many of them vote anyway, given there were many who voted to shake things up)

Bumping Dacre for Remainer Geordie Greig will probably help jumpy Tory MPs sleep slightly sounder in their beds at night - wherever that may be.

And then its going to be about how betrayed that section of the public which voted for Brexit and really wanted out of the institution feel about it and what they would do in the next general election. Do they sit it out, or what? (Do many of them vote anyway, given there were many who voted to shake things up)

prior to the referendum nobody gave enough of a shit either way to make UKIP a genuine political force. god knows i enjoy a bit of centrist Remoaner baiting and anybody who genuinely thinks the EU is a force for good is probably deluded af but to be fair the reason that Brexit doesn't, can't, mean Brexit is become the terms where never defined more clearly than "do you hate foreigns y/n?"

The section of the population we're talking about here is considerably less than the 52% of voters Tory MPs would like to pretend it represents. Most Leave voters would have been happy enough with soft Brexit from the start and the people who just want to end immigration now are never going to be satisfied whatever happens.

Some attention is finally being paid to the blocking potential of Labour MPs in leave-voting constituencies, both of the legitimate concerns and the 'I voted Remain but WTF can I do?' category. The latter one seems to throw up some knotty questions about what 'representation' actually means, if you genuinely believe (with some justification) that a hard Brexit would decimate employment in your area then surely you have a duty to vote against it even if your constituency voted Leave? Like, they're not going to thank you when it all goes tits-up in two years time.

What Boris Johnson thinks of Northern Ireland pic.twitter.com/QAf20P2YLI

— Dawn Foster (@DawnHFoster) June 7, 2018

I agree with him that the entity called Northern Ireland is a folly.

Good news though:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-united-ireland-referendum-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-44398502

Well the ppl I talk about are considerably less than 52%, agreed. It's more to do w/the spread across the country. If they were confined to Tory land it wouldn't be much of a deal.

Ultimately its seeing the impact of a soft Brexit on the economy, or even the (longer-term) impact of what is happening in Italy and Spain on the EU (and its lack of flexibility on the technocrats to make the necessary adjustments) and us over here. You could say (as per that poll) a united Ireland is on the cards - but if the EU were to collapse in the next few years (not beyond the realms of possibility)..

Yeah, but Matt, they’re not going to thank their MPs if they succeeding in avoiding hard Brexit anyway, it’ll be these traitors have blighted our vision of the promised land.

Whereas if you go along with it and things turn to shit you can always find some other poor fucker to blame.

(I suspect I am just being a fanny with my worries about being Irish in the U.K. for the next while, but eurgh)

Aaron Banks and the leave means leave crowd have been quietly menacing around the edges since the referendum. I genuinely worry about where the more insistent leave vote will go if the government is perceived to be trying to frustrate Brexit.

into mass graves, ideally

Only communism will deliver that my friend.

lol! get those black ravens on the go, we've got a lot work to do, comrades-in-arms!

i'm okay with that xp

Today is the anniversary of the hilarious exit poll and all the great awful takes are doing the rounds. I thought I’d seen all the Dan Hodges classics and yet...

2093: Bad for Cyber-Corbyn. Benchmark for successful campaign to be re-elected admiral of intergalactic federation now 94%. Trouble ahead. pic.twitter.com/VO3AV8WWlB

— Hywel Roberts (@HywelRoberts2) May 26, 2017

There was a hilarious Labour Uncut take about how independent Danczuk could be in a position to challenge for his seat as well.

This thread has all the classics.

did martin robbins ever join him in the book eating exercise? no, the coward pic.twitter.com/w6O3q9svtK

— The Panama and Iceland Fan 🇵🇦🇮🇸 (@schmrn) June 5, 2018

Danczuk brings a lot to the table, I'm sure his constituents didn't just vote for him because of party allegiance

This article needs better names for each of the eight (although the headline says nine while Bush presents it as ten) voting groups Bush describes.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/06/nine-voter-groups-who-are-more-important-labour-leavers

Group 1: Labour 2017, Gives An Answer Other Than “Jeremy Corbyn” When Asked Who Makes The Best Prime Minister
Group 2: Conservative 2015, Remain 2016, Labour 2017
Group 3: Conservative 2015, Remain 2016, Conservatives 2017
Group 4: Yes 2014, SNP 2015, Did Not Vote in 2017
Group 5: Non-voting until 2016, Remain 2016, Labour 2017
Group 6: Non-voting until 2016, Leave 2016, Non-voting 2017
Group 7: Conservatives 2015, Liberal Democrats 2017
Group 8: Conservative voters in 2017

All I got so far is 'Morrissey Dancers' for Group 6

not the only inaccuracy in that article, mentions voters in the 2017 referendum, I wasn't aware there was one, then the non-voters til 2016 also apparently voted for UKIP in 2015, schrodinger's racists?

Group 1: Blue Dan (Jarvis) Group
Group 2: Brinkmanshippers Unbound
Group 3: People We Actually Have To Deal With IRL Far Too Often
Group 4: Salmond Row
Group 5: Stormzy Und Drang
Group 7: Mrs. Johnson and the Ant Attack
Group 8: Zombie Nationalists

The greatest piece of TV for 2018. Ladies and Gentlemen I proudly present you with 'Love Island contestants discuss Brexit' #LoveIsland pic.twitter.com/if4UUNd0HD

— Gully Burrows (@gullyburrows) June 8, 2018

and they say Brexiters knew what they were voting for etc

Not getting a strong sense that she voted tbh

Sunday Politics just did a whole piece themed around this after chiding the pm for not ever having watched it.

Chris Williamson has managed to express solidarity with the current govt of Venezuela, the current govt of Nicaragua, Marc Wadsworth and Ken Livingstone in a single tweet

ttps://twitter.com/DerbyChrisW/status/1005519963518570496

Pleased to speak alongside Nicaraguan Ambassador Guissell Morales-Echaverry, Marcos Garcia from @VenezEmbassyUK & @sianlou82 today to express my support for self determination in Latin America and opposition to Trump's attacks. Great to see @Marcwads & @ken4london in attendance pic.twitter.com/gHd48hB2hb

— Chris Williamson MP (@DerbyChrisW) June 9, 2018

Mr radical 2 homes bringing the party into disrepute again, fucking arsehole.

fuck me, I bet if he could have resurrected Steve Biko's corpse for a one off selfie, the cynical cunt could have got Galloway on board as well as Ken.

cool and normal over here

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/09/whitehall-secrecy-cripples-brexit-plans-says-thinktank

Many suggesting it all leads to another GE before the year is out.

Today is potentially seismic. One senior official (very much NOT a Brexiteer): “We have now removed every incentive from EU for doing a deal by the end of November.” What happens after November? Parliament takes over. What does it want? EEA+. Who else wants EEA+? Follow the logic

— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) June 12, 2018

you can still get 6/1 on a 2018 election, lump on quick!

This was a good response to dumb tweeting. This country (as much of Europe) have been forever maanging increasing levels of decline and inequality. Brexit may speed up what was already happening. Going back to the EU (which isn't possible) is going back to hardly managing.

Not picking an argument with DL here because we're pals, but a good opportunity to point out why this tweet profoundly misrepresents MY position on Brexit and (I would imagine) Corbyn and most other Corbyn supporters too. [thread] > https://t.co/g1KvxBY06J

— Ally Fogg (@AllyFogg) June 12, 2018

Anyway, this thread has been quiet so I am now here for the vote (yeah baby!)

"There is simply no going back to the pre-2016 consensus, it is impossible, it's not there any more."

no point trying to explain that to ppl like DL, who seem completely oblivious to what austerity is actually doing to other humans, or the history of how right-wing party rhetoric has often been most successfully utilised during "stabbed in the back" nationalist type narratives. I know he's an eminent ILXer and all that, but what a complacent, smug arsewipe. I can't stand reading anything by the fucker tbh - music or politics.

I’m reading The Candidate by Alex Nunns which talks about Corbyn’s election for leader and the broader political trends and it’s like reading an alternate history. I was pretty disengaged from politics at the time so I’d missed a lot of the Corbyn buildup and all the debates.

All these FBPE types can talk, quite truthfully, about the damage Brexit will do to the UK. But we wouldn’t have Brexit without years of cuts and austerity hurting people and the broad political consensus on both sides just handwringing and going “oh well sorry, nothing to be done”. To say nothing of the years of legitimate concerns that paved the way for the outright racism of both Leave campaigns! So when I read someone say, with great confidence and such sorrow, that Corbyn is just playing politics here? Just utterly contemptible. The current leadership was protesting cuts and speaking out against austerity while the supposedly sensible were ignoring suffering to play nice with the tabloids. Did any of these people ever speak out about the harm caused by their passive support before? Did they care then?

Tl;dr the penny has not dropped for any of these people and any second referendum/people’s vote will reflect that fact.

Errrrrrrr, isn't that the other guy saying that? (xp)