North Korea

True, but our policy towards NK was overblown prior to Trump, he's just made it much worse.

Also, with the Cuba example, comparing the distance to Moscow and DC makes little sense when Cuba is extremely close to the southern US.

xp That's equally true.

Sordidly missing from all these shenanigans is the fate of the North-Korean people. That's where the real crisis is, day in day out. Not a peep on that from Trump (nor any other "world leader").

The real concern among US war planners was how quickly their nukes could take out our nukes, leaving us unable to retaliate in kind and cutting the doctrine of MAD off at the knees. The huge difficulty with MAD with missiles in Cuba was making the decision to launch your own nukes within a mere 10 minutes after your opponents launch is detected, as opposed to having a leisurely half hour or so to make sure your radar alert wasn't lying to you about a flock of geese or something. When the whole decision cycle and all the necessary communication time is factored in, compressing it to mere minutes was almost asking for an accidental nuclear war.

Needless to add, but NK can't begin to destroy our nuclear retaliatory capability and won't be able to for as far ahead as one can see or imagine, so any first strike by them leaves us with a thousand-plus missiles we could send their way. This simplifies the nuclear war doctrine to employ against them considerably compared to the USSR in 1961.

last yr I examined 30 media mentions of CSIS on Korea. All 30 pushed for the maintenance of or new purchase of weapons system. When I asked a CSIS rep if they could point to a single instance of CSIS opposing a new weapons system they never got back to me. https://t.co/kvs4n7D30l

— Adam H. Johnson (@adamjohnsonNYC) June 12, 2018

xp That's equally true.

Sordidly missing from all these shenanigans is the fate of the North-Korean people. That's where the real crisis is, day in day out. Not a peep on that from Trump (nor any other "world leader").

― lbi's life of limitless european glamour (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 11 June 2018 20:00 (two days ago) Permalink

Is there any sense in which thawing relations between the US and NK would harm the North Korean people? I would think it would benefit them or be neutral at worse.

following from that, i think the kim jong un singapore move will be in the dprk less about the move to normalize relations and more about signalling a change in policy or speeding it up. kim legitimacy increasingly tied to economic success but at the same time tension between old guard leadership / bureaucrats and donju businesspeople and those that have come unattached from state infrastructure. the american military threat is secondary for kim to internal dissent on opening and reform vs state control... kim going to singapore is a good look and would be the next scene in a documentary after his ryomyong street opening and clips of the pyongyang skyline rising.
i think that was a bit incoherent but it's a variation on all of my posts on this thread: the real story is economic reform and opening in north korea which is hard to report on or know much about for sure and not a possible military conflict with the united states.

and another thing i always bring up, the prc-us detente as a good example. normalization with china went forward even though the security issues that the prc and the us couldn't agree on in the late 70s continue to be an issue in 2018. reintegration of china into the international order was good and served strategic goals and required being pragmatic and negotiatiing with bad people.

the first look that most in the dprk will get of the summit: https://youtu.be/Foc4VgKAVrM

I think your pov has a lot of validity. dprk has a firm grip on nk society and nothing happens there that is not deeply connected to internal politics.

also, watching that youtube, I couldn't help but notice that kim jong un waddles when he walks. that's irrelevant, but he's in his mid-30s for crying out loud. he needs to get more exercise.

isn't being overweight sort of a status symbol in NK?

I should think being head of state would be a sufficient marker of high status.

don't body-shame him

long and fascinating gq piece on otto warmbier, the murky circumstances around his death, and his family's shortlived political usefulness: https://www.gq.com/story/otto-warmbier-north-korea-american-hostage-true-story

^ Just finished that and would highly recommend it (and came here to post it, when it's almost certainly an open tab in my browser because of this thread)

thanks for posting that. very well-written and reported.

Two interesting threads regarding the current state of negotiations

The Case of The Missing Negotiations, or Whatever Happened to US-North Korean Diplomacy? A thread.

— Joshua H. Pollack (@Joshua_Pollack) August 6, 2018

This is a wise thread for a different time, a time in which diplomacy was a function of the government and not of one man's ego. A thread in a different direction. https://t.co/tAcQlGmmGn

— Cheryl Rofer (@CherylRofer) August 6, 2018

COMING UP pic.twitter.com/ksoTfTZpsL

— Max Tani (@maxwelltani) August 8, 2018

This is a delusional nonstarter.

Big exclusive by ⁦@AlexWardVox⁩. If this is what Pompeo has asked for, it’s no wonder North Korea has called him “robber” or “gangster-like”. And trying to literally take their nukes away distracts from other realistic objectives like caps. pic.twitter.com/89PVBDV2iI

— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) August 8, 2018

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/29/17795452/trump-north-korea-war-summit-singapore-promise

The square peg in the round hole dilemma continues . Pyongyang wants an end-of-war declaration. Washington wants denuclearization. Nobody wants to go first.

Step-by-step is the only way this quandary is going to end. D’.C.’s “all or nothing” approach is a road to a breakdown. https://t.co/7kHrOnJ9sG

— Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) September 20, 2018

South Korean President Moon, in his remarks to the public about the Pyongyang Summit: "the North requested mediation from the South in its talks with the United States." That's been the case for awhile already, but I still find it remarkable. https://t.co/ZitxB56ZtS

— Joshua H. Pollack (@Joshua_Pollack) September 21, 2018

In the interview with Geraldo that aired yesterday, Trump said of Kim Jong Un: "We were going to go to war. Now he's a friend of mine."

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) September 25, 2018

Moon has no option but to overpromise. Best case: he keeps the Trump diplomacy train on the rails for at least one more round. Worst case: Trump’s advisors reach the limit on how much delusion they will allow and this blows up badly for Moon. We are pushing on wrong door here. pic.twitter.com/vaEfnmfWTS

— Vipin Narang (@NarangVipin) September 25, 2018

North Korean media drops new posters and slogans focusing on the themes of Kim Jong Un's New Year Address: "Let the young people become pioneers of new technology, creators of new culture and pathfinders for a great leap forward!" pic.twitter.com/uhzCRGJqAs

— Oliver Hotham (@OliverHotham) January 24, 2019

serious question for the better informed: what prevents nk and sk from negotiating a separate peace w/o US oversight?

An official peace treaty would require approval of 2/3 of the US Senate to be ratified. Plus a lot of the economic cooperation the two countries can do together are limited by the current sanctions against NK.

Some reassuring stuff in Special Envoy to North Korea’s speech yesterday but a little concerned that he claimed KJU agreed to some major steps back in the meeting Pompeo had with him in October that the North Koreans have never actually said they agreed to publicly as of yet.

Biegun: "I don’t mince my words…he is unconstrained by the assumptions of his predecessors. President Trump is ready to end this war. It is over. It is done. We are not going to invade N. Korea. We are not seeking to topple the N. Korean regime."https://t.co/P6QE0FHdkj

— Jonathan Cheng (@JChengWSJ) February 1, 2019

"North Korea executed Kim Hyok Chol, its special envoy to the United States, and foreign ministry officials who carried out working-level negotiations for the second U.S.-North Korea summit, a South Korean newspaper reported on Friday." https://t.co/NgsQaMnRyv

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) May 30, 2019

A good reminder that things can always get worse

ever timely
How To (Sp)read a Rumor About North Korea

Top North Korean official reappears days after purge report

that link doesn't but here it is https://www.apnews.com/502b038c1720487294e8ea43f5b39d9c

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1252419687775744000

North Korea does not have an official line of succession. If Kim Jong Un were to pass away, there would likely be an immediate & intense power struggle.

History also teaches us that totalitarian states don’t end if the leader dies. But it could provide opportunities for change. https://t.co/VVQLVDmwZq

— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) April 21, 2020

As if this year couldn't get any crazier...

"I Dream Myself Alive" by A-ha, performed by a student accordion trio of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea in Pyongyang 💙 pic.twitter.com/etiKiSHvEa

— Comrade Natalie 🇰🇵 (@NatalieRevolts) September 17, 2020

I don't know how something like this comes to be (the A-ha > N Korea > specific accordians > my eyes journey) but I like it.

Love to see Kim defy traditional masculine gender roles of what a leader should look and act like. Between him and Jacinda Adern, the millenial generation looks set to defy stereotypes and deliver progressive government across the globe 🤝 https://t.co/9NSr6C1VXD

— doug (@heardougtweet) October 12, 2020

Kim Jong Un had his uncle assassinated. But all is forgiven now that he shed tears in public, thus becoming an icon for progressive values.

This fit crazy pic.twitter.com/FqvBBB57P9

— eĺe💃 (@LesbianDrakeFan) April 16, 2021

No skinny jeans for Kim

that's how you dress when you are a 100pts ahead.

That's a solid look I would like to emulate

*takes notes by hand*

yes, JNCOs sir, yes

Cool.

This demonstration at the Defence Development Exhibition was bit intense. Video broadcast today on North Korean TV. pic.twitter.com/zehpI6EAEd

— Martyn Williams (@martyn_williams) October 12, 2021

So I guess our new intercontinental brick missiles won't have the desired effect

You don't go to war with the bricks you want, you go to war with the bricks you have.

this will hold me over until the new jackass movie comes out

Just being the usual wet blanket here, but I don't think the point of that demonstration was that brick-breaking is a useful military skill.

You're saying you want to fight that guy? If North Korea had a dozen more dudes that tough we might as well just surrender right now.

you got my point, while missing my point