MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

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the leader of the center-left opposition is called (most likely not going to be nicknamed The Guv'nor by colleagues) Muharrem Ince.

calzino, Saturday, 23 June 2018 11:31 (five years ago) link

It’s not officially a Turkish election until this happens:

https://s15.postimg.cc/liohskcob/C7942_ADD-2_C01-4751-_AC15-86_E506_F048_CB.jpg

Not sure Erdogan is going to get the 50% he needs to avoid a run-off with Ince. There will be a huge mobilisation against him if it’s head-to-head.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 09:22 (five years ago) link

Nusret Gökçe, globally known as “Salt Bae” for his meat-cutting and salt-drizzling skills..

you can see by how he votes that he's erm ... got some skills.

Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) has announced that it will look into complaints regarding election safety issues in the Suruç district of the southeastern province of Şanlıurfa following claims of vote-rigging.

The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) earlier on June 24 appealed to the YSK, asking the election body to take action following allegations regarding voting irregularities and other allegations that some election observers were not allowed to do their jobs and they were even attacked at balloting stations in Suruç and some other districts of Şanlıurfa, daily Cumhuriyet has reported.

calzino, Sunday, 24 June 2018 11:00 (five years ago) link

Anadolu News Agency says that Erdogan has 53% with 89%of votes counted. Has been ticking down closer to 50 the more votes are counted.

Ince reckons they’ve actually only counted 40% so don’t expect him to concede.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 18:32 (five years ago) link

The map tells the story.

Latest results in presidential vote in #TurkeyElections as of 9.30 pm:

Boxes opened: 89%

Erdogan: 53.4%
Ince: 30.3%
Demirtas: 7.6%
Aksener: 7.4%
Karamollaoglu: 0.9%
Perincek: 0.2%

Find more at https://t.co/EcC7DcnkdK and https://t.co/pCgJ7oPKXj#Secim2018 pic.twitter.com/32YJo1Wbpn

— ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG) (@anadoluagency) June 24, 2018

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 18:40 (five years ago) link

Has been ticking down closer to 50 the more votes are counted.

It is said that where there's a will, there's a way. I am sure Erdogan will find a way to win. Or else appear to. Either way works for his purposes.

A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 24 June 2018 18:41 (five years ago) link

It has been glitchy all night, but it looks like the opposition's own vote tally is going to show an Erdoğan first round victory. pic.twitter.com/HnshQVRJGz

— Ankaralı Jan (@06JAnk) June 24, 2018

Looks more or less a done deal on a first round victory.

The good news is that the Kurdish party got over the 10% required for parliamentary representation in the other ballot.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:00 (five years ago) link

Why did anyone ever think it could turn out any different?

womp womp that sucker (Tom D.), Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:12 (five years ago) link

I trebled it with Putin's election victory and Celtic winning the title and made a penny!

calzino, Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:16 (five years ago) link

The election may have some irregularities but isn’t exactly 100% rigged and there was a sense of urgency, at least in Istanbul and Ankara, that went along with the idea that this could end up being the most important election in Turkey’s history (or if you’re more pessimistic, the last election in Turkey’s history) to drive turnout.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:17 (five years ago) link

Celtic far less of a surefire bet than Putin or Erdogan tbh.

womp womp that sucker (Tom D.), Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:19 (five years ago) link

What is that red dot to the east?

Frederik B, Sunday, 24 June 2018 21:58 (five years ago) link

Tunceli, where Erdogan got 18%

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Sunday, 24 June 2018 22:07 (five years ago) link

Interesting. Will check up on the story of that.

Frederik B, Sunday, 24 June 2018 23:23 (five years ago) link

Kurds.

womp womp that sucker (Tom D.), Sunday, 24 June 2018 23:32 (five years ago) link

But not Kurds who voted for the main Kurdish party - there’s a subset called the Alevi I don’t know much about who live there.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Monday, 25 June 2018 05:11 (five years ago) link

Will Assad really agree not to have Iran or other militias in areas near Israel he is currently recapturing (via his usual brutality)? See article below

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-assad-to-retake-southwest-syria-israel-to-decide-whether-to-intervene-1.6217834

The Syrian civil war is apparently entering a new phase. After having scored numerous military successes over the last two years, the Assad regime, with Russian air support, is preparing to retake the country’s southwest. This is an area with symbolic importance (the uprising against Syrian President Bashar Assad began in Daraa in 2011), but also practical importance, since it abuts both Jordan and Israel.

...Israel wants stability on its border. It has also frequently denounced the Assad regime for slaughtering its own citizens and using chemical weapons. But would it necessarily oppose the Syrian Army’s return to its border in the Golan Heights, if the Iranians were removed from the area at the same time?

In recent years, Israel has given food, clothing and medicine to residents of Sunni Syrian villages near its border. Thousands of Syrians have also entered Israel for medical treatment. Western media reports say Israel has also given rebel militias in those areas arms and ammunition as well. Israel denies this, but recently those denials have sounded less forceful than in the past.

Along with fighting the rebels, the Assad regime has mercilessly slaughtered residents of towns under their control. In many cases, it battered besieged towns with air strikes and artillery until they surrendered.

Thus Israel’s leadership will soon face a dilemma. In internal discussions, some defense officials, including officers in the army’s Northern Command, have said Israel has a humanitarian obligation to residents of these border villages.

Nevertheless, it’s hard to imagine that the public would support risking Israeli soldiers’ lives to save Arab citizens of an enemy country. It’s more likely that Israel won’t intervene directly in the fighting, but will try to make the regime’s return to the border region contingent on an agreement to remove Iranian forces and the Shi’ite militias from it.

curmudgeon, Thursday, 28 June 2018 14:06 (five years ago) link

Deraa has been completely burnt to the ground," Jihad al-Ali, a 26-year-old paramedic in Deraa told Al Jazeera as he described the effect of the ongoing attacks since Wednesday evening.

Syrian government forces launched the military push on June 19 in an attempt to retake the southern provinces of Deraa, Quneitra and parts of Sweida, mostly held by opposition fighters.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/06/syria-war-deraa-burnt-ground-180628095132419.html

curmudgeon, Thursday, 28 June 2018 14:08 (five years ago) link

The whole 'thousands of years of conflict' thing re Israel and Palestine is something I've probably screeched myself on here at some point but also a framework we really need to work against no

Never changed username before (cardamon), Saturday, 30 June 2018 22:21 (five years ago) link

It nicely absolves the British, Ottoman and Russian empires for their behaviour in the 20th century for one thing and sticks all the blame on those inherently-violent Jews and Arabs

Never changed username before (cardamon), Saturday, 30 June 2018 22:23 (five years ago) link

Müslüm Gündüz, the head sheikh of the hardline Aczmendi sect, told the Islamist TV channel Akit TV that those inspired by the founder of the Turkish republic should be forced out of the country, left-wing news site Gazete Tamam said .

“We know the Kemalists well and they know us well. Either they will leave this country or we will. While we are around, the Kemalists cannot be at ease,” Gündüz said.

“Kemalism is against human nature. It is against human morality. It is a system to force Anatolian people to be immoral.”

Kemalism, an ideology named after founding president of Turkey Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, has been a major secular force in Turkish politics since that time.

But the ideology made people into anarchists and terrorists, Gündüz said.

The Kemalist opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was a “religious movement” trying to compete with Islam, he added.

ogmor, Thursday, 5 July 2018 13:26 (five years ago) link

Basically calling for a purge of secularists?

officer sonny bonds, lytton pd (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 5 July 2018 13:49 (five years ago) link

He has been saying the same thing since 1996.

I wouldn't bet he has more followers than the average Turkish high school has pictures of Ataturk, tbh.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Thursday, 5 July 2018 15:24 (five years ago) link

let's hope so. I've not heard much good news coming out of turkey

ogmor, Thursday, 5 July 2018 18:44 (five years ago) link

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/israeli-saudi-and-emirati-officials-privately-pushed-for-trump-to-strike-a-grand-bargain-with-putin

During a private meeting shortly before the November, 2016, election, Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, floated to a longtime American interlocutor what sounded, at the time, like an unlikely grand bargain. The Emirati leader told the American that Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, might be interested in resolving the conflict in Syria in exchange for the lifting of sanctions imposed in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Current and former U.S. officials said that bin Zayed, known as M.B.Z., was not the only leader in the region who favored rapprochement between the former Cold War adversaries. While America’s closest allies in Europe viewed with a sense of dread Trump’s interest in partnering with Putin, three countries that enjoyed unparallelled influence with the incoming Administration—Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E.—privately embraced the goal. Officials from the three countries have repeatedly encouraged their American counterparts to consider ending the Ukraine-related sanctions in return for Putin’s help in removing Iranian forces from Syria.

Experts say that such a deal would be unworkable, even if Trump were interested. They say Putin has neither the interest nor the ability to pressure Iranian forces to leave Syria. Administration officials have said that Syria and Ukraine will be among the topics that Trump and Putin will discuss at their summit in Helsinki on July 16th. White House officials did not respond to a request for comment.

curmudgeon, Friday, 13 July 2018 04:33 (five years ago) link

This looks very plausible to me - both sides exploring back-channels, encouraged by shared allies, to see whether they could reach a mutually-beneficial foreign policy arrangement and both coming to the conclusion that they couldn't. I doubt the Trump side has given up hope completely, given how central Iran is to a lot of their thinking, but i can't really envisage Russia changing position.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Friday, 13 July 2018 12:12 (five years ago) link

Meanwhile, Assad's brutal campaign marches on through Daraa where the revolution first began...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/syrian-rebels-agree-to-give-up-daraa-cradle-of-2011-revolt/2018/07/12/ae882330-85bf-11e8-9e06-4db52ac42e05_story.html?utm_term=.4dd05a33dedc

For the first time in more than seven years, the Syrian government raised its flag Thursday over Daraa, the first city to revolt against President Bashar Assad in 2011 and plunge the country into its calamitous civil war.

The display is laden with symbolism as the government moves to stamp out the last of the uprising against the 52-year-old Assad who has ruled with an iron fist over Syria for 18 years. His father Hafez Assad was president for three decades before him.

Officials accompanied by state media crews hoisted the two-star flag over the rubble of the city’s main square, allowing it to wave in sight of the shell of the Omari Mosque where protesters first gathered in demonstrations demanding reforms then Assad’s ouster in the spring of 2011.

The mosque has since been destroyed in the government’s brutal crackdown against the city, which ranged from alleged torturing of dissidents to shelling the city with tanks and planes.

curmudgeon, Saturday, 14 July 2018 00:33 (five years ago) link

A (recently turned right-wing) friend of mine posted an article saying that Syria was welcoming back the people who had fled, so why should we give them asylum. The worst.

Leaghaidh am brón an t-anam bochd (dowd), Saturday, 14 July 2018 01:11 (five years ago) link

Welcome back! We kill you now.

A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 14 July 2018 03:42 (five years ago) link

Thought this was really interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/27/sunday-review/obama-egypt-coup-trump.html

Frederik B, Friday, 27 July 2018 16:04 (five years ago) link

Yes, a good article.

And talking of fault lines within an administration...

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2018/07/27/turkey-blames-pence-as-brunson-drama-reveals-fault-lines-inside-trump-administration

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Friday, 27 July 2018 16:15 (five years ago) link

"Together we can rebuild it... Afrin". #WhiteHelmets are set and ready to go in the city of #Afrin for their latest community work campaigns to restore the city to its former beauty and utility. #Syria pic.twitter.com/wEwR7X3xC2

— The White Helmets (@SyriaCivilDef) August 1, 2018

kind of a gross tweet considering the turks and islamists just ethnically cleansed Afrin

( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Wednesday, 1 August 2018 21:42 (five years ago) link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/saudi-arabia-ruptures-ties-with-canada-serving-notice-to-would-be-critics/2018/08/06/5ad193f6-99a7-11e8-b55e-5002300ef004_story.html?utm_term=.69f28676839a

It was hardly the first time the kingdom, an absolute monarchy, had been chided for human rights abuses, or even the first time Canada had criticized the Saudi government since it started arresting the female activists in May. But under Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s young crown prince, a kingdom once known for its go-slow approach to foreign affairs has frequently reacted to perceived challenges from abroad with haste, spit and fire, analysts said.

curmudgeon, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 02:58 (five years ago) link

"In These Times" re US support of Saudi Arabia in Yemen--

Yemenis require much more than vague assurances and promises. What Yemenis need is for the United States to end all its support to the Saudi-led coalition, which includes pulling out troops from the Saudi-Yemen border, ending all refueling missions and targeting assistance, ending all military contracts involving the training of Saudi military personnel and the maintenance of military vehicles and aircraft, and ending all sales of weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

http://inthesetimes.com/article/21361/yemen-war-national-defense-authorization-act-bombing-civilians-saudi-arabia

curmudgeon, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 03:17 (five years ago) link

How much oil does Yemen have?

(That was rhetorical. It's not much, Nexen Canada operated the main field in Yemen, was bought out by Chinese CNOOC in 2012, who are abandoning it).

Roomba with an attitude (Sanpaku), Tuesday, 7 August 2018 04:50 (five years ago) link

Yep.

curmudgeon, Tuesday, 7 August 2018 18:05 (five years ago) link

Saudis, Al Queda, and the US

The deals uncovered by the AP investigation reflect the contradictory interests of the two wars being waged simultaneously in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula.

In one conflict, the US is working with its Arab allies - particularly the UAE - with the aim of eliminating al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). But the larger mission is to win the civil war against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels.

And in that fight, al-Qaeda fighters are effectively on the same side as the Saudi-led coalition and, by extension, the US.

"Elements of the US military are clearly aware that much of what the US is doing in Yemen is aiding AQAP and there is much angst about that," said Michael Horton, a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

"However, supporting the UAE and Saudi Arabia against what the US views as Iranian expansionism takes priority over battling AQAP and even stabilising Yemen," Horton said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/report-saudi-uae-coalition-cut-deals-al-qaeda-yemen-180806074659521.html

the [Saudi] coalition cut secret deals with al-Qaida fighters, paying some to leave key cities and towns and letting others retreat with weapons, equipment and wads of looted cash, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. Hundreds more were recruited to join the coalition itself.

https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da/Yemen:-US-allies-don't-defeat-al-Qaida-but-pay-it-to-go-away

curmudgeon, Friday, 10 August 2018 03:25 (five years ago) link

I'm sure that'll all be fine

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Friday, 10 August 2018 03:44 (five years ago) link

Pretty much the story of the Sunni Awakening during the Iraq war. Thousands who had been bombing convoys the prior year were put on the payroll. Cheaper to pay them to do nothing than to patch up after IEDs.

Roomba with an attitude (Sanpaku), Friday, 10 August 2018 04:21 (five years ago) link

Meanwhile, Saudi coalition air attacks that kill children continue:

An airstrike from the Saudi-led coalition struck a school bus in northern Yemen on Thursday and killed dozens of people, many of them children, local medical officials and international aid groups said.

The attack sent a flood of victims to overwhelmed hospitals struggling to cope in what the United Nations considers one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The coalition said it had hit missile launchers and called the attack a “legitimate military operation,” but the attack and the justification for it were condemned and drew new attention to the tremendous human toll of the war in Yemen, especially on children.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/world/middleeast/yemen-airstrike-school-bus-children.html

curmudgeon, Friday, 10 August 2018 12:50 (five years ago) link

Astonishing graphic from @CNN, identifying civilian massacres in Yemen with the bomb makers - Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. This should be standard in war reporting. Searing images. https://t.co/EZqkSsAri6 pic.twitter.com/NWJvPuN7ct

— Tim Shorrock (@TimothyS) August 18, 2018

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 20 August 2018 19:30 (five years ago) link

For the sort of people who would invest in Raytheon, that's just getting good notices in the press.

A is for (Aimless), Monday, 20 August 2018 19:40 (five years ago) link

The weak crumble, are slaughtered and are erased from history while the strong, for good or for ill, survive. The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong.

— PM of Israel (@IsraeliPM) August 29, 2018

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Thursday, 30 August 2018 21:08 (five years ago) link

not creepy at all

Karl Malone, Thursday, 30 August 2018 21:08 (five years ago) link

what in almighty fuck

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 30 August 2018 21:44 (five years ago) link

not creepy nazi at all

difficult listening hour, Thursday, 30 August 2018 21:47 (five years ago) link

How much do you bench

— Scott (@firescotch) August 30, 2018

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 30 August 2018 22:05 (five years ago) link

Air raids have pounded areas in Syria's last rebel-held province of Idlib, killing several civilians and raising further concerns that an all-out government offensive is only a matter of time.

The strikes on Tuesday came as the United Nations urged Russia, a Syrian government ally, and Turkey, which backs certain rebel groups in Idlib, to help avert a "bloodbath".

A full-scale military offensive would be devastating for the nearly three million people living in the province, including many rebels and civilians who were bussed out of other areas as they came back under government control.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/syria-war-warplanes-hit-idlib-targets-fears-battle-mount-180904095502071.html

curmudgeon, Wednesday, 5 September 2018 04:50 (five years ago) link

No stopping dictator Assad.

curmudgeon, Wednesday, 5 September 2018 14:09 (five years ago) link

This is what Assad anticipated when he began driving refugees into Idlib.

As a strategy, it was exceptionally effective. He got a modest bit of credit by appearing lenient. The areas the refugees left became much easier to reassert control over and less costly to feed. Idlib was burdened by hundreds of thousands of people where there was no infrastructure to support them. Now they are fish in a barrel and he can finish them off.

A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 5 September 2018 17:44 (five years ago) link


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