hall of fame, next vote...

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well, that wasn't true for mcgwire or sosa, both superior players!

k3vin k., Sunday, 1 July 2018 15:24 (five years ago) link

true, but it's PEDs keeping those two out

Karl Malone, Sunday, 1 July 2018 15:26 (five years ago) link

unless, was that a thing for matt williams too? can't remember

Karl Malone, Sunday, 1 July 2018 15:26 (five years ago) link

If you give him the then-record and change nothing else about his career, no, I don't think he would have made it--the difficult path for third basemen is well established. But if he'd broken the record, maybe that would have changed his career (he was basically finished at 33) and maybe he would have done stuff that would have put him in.

clemenza, Sunday, 1 July 2018 15:35 (five years ago) link

Matt Williams would basically be Roger Maris in that case, I think. Though I mean I think w/full heath and no strike he’d have an interesting case, he lost a lot of time in ‘95 and ‘96 as well, he likely lost 60 HR total over those three seasons.

omar little, Sunday, 1 July 2018 17:18 (five years ago) link

WAR has his three best seasons ('90/91/93) all before he chased Maris. His two big seasons after '94 ('97/99) have a big built-in PED-era adjustment.

clemenza, Sunday, 1 July 2018 19:46 (five years ago) link

Yeah Longoria has already better JAWS and I'm not even sure he is going to make it because of the BBWA dinosaurs (heck Rolen only made 10%, Boyer and Nettles are out).

Van Horn Street, Sunday, 1 July 2018 20:53 (five years ago) link

Williams is pretty similar to Rolen, fantastic peak player and played quite a few years but lost a lot of games to a multitude of injuries.

earlnash, Monday, 2 July 2018 05:50 (five years ago) link

Ryan Zimmerman's career arc is also pretty similar to Rolen and Williams too, although his peak was not quite a the same level. He's had a couple years where he really tore it up at the plate.

earlnash, Monday, 2 July 2018 05:53 (five years ago) link

I'm starting to think Grienke has a pretty good shot (after being somewhat dismissive of his chances earlier). He's 34, still pitching well, and sitting at a career WAR of just under 60. 70 is close to a sure thing for a pitcher. The only 20th-century pitchers above 70 who aren't in are Clemens (obvious explanation, may still go in), Mussina (he'll be in soon), and Schilling (hard to say--please shut up).

Greinke still feels a little wrong to me, so I've quantified something I've mentioned before: how much of his career value resides in two seasons. I took all career WAR leaders down to Greinke, eliminated pitchers who did most of their pitching in the 19th century (when pitcher WARs were crazy--Tim Keefe is on the fence, so I left him in), and calculated their two best seasons as a percentage of career WAR. The Top 10:

               Career  2 Best    Pct.
Ed Walsh 63.8 22.7 35.6%
Joe McGinnity 60.5 21.5 35.5%
Hal Newhouser 60.7 20.9 34.4%
Rube Waddell 60.8 20.1 33.1%
Zack Greinke 59.3 19.5 32.9%
Dazzy Vance 62.7 20.6 32.9%
Juan Marichal 61.9 19.3 31.2%
Bob Feller 65.5 20.1 30.7%
Red Faber 68.5 20.8 30.4%
Vic Willis 67.6 19.1 28.3%

Almost a third of his career value came in 2009 and 2015; the rest of the time, he's been a good pitcher with one season of 6.1, another of 5.3, and nothing else over 5.0. I don't know if that should matter or not--Gibson, Carlton, and Kershaw are all above 25%, and Pedro's just shy of that.

The ten most consistent measured this way are Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Eddie Plank, Tommy John, Greg Maddux, Bert Blyleven, Walter Johnson, Mike Mussina, Nolan Ryan, and Don Sutton. They're all between 15-19%.

For purposes of comparison, Koufax's two best seasons account for 39% of his career value. Mark Fidrych's two best contribute 105%.

clemenza, Monday, 2 July 2018 15:55 (five years ago) link

There needs to be an adjustment for career length...Trout right now comes out at 34%, and obviously he's not a two-season phenom--he just hasn't played long enough. By the time he finishes, that percentage will come come down considerably as his two-best-seasons number more or less stays the same (it may go up a bit) and his career number climbs.

Three of the pitchers ahead of Greinke had pretty short careers: McGinnity (10 seasons), Wadell (13), and Ed Walsh (14). Newhouser pitched 17. Greinke's at 15 and counting.

clemenza, Monday, 2 July 2018 16:50 (five years ago) link

yeah I was going to make that point

k3vin k., Monday, 2 July 2018 16:55 (five years ago) link

it's an interesting way of looking at it...though ultimately it's not too different than what JAWS tries to do

k3vin k., Monday, 2 July 2018 16:56 (five years ago) link

So if Greinke does end up at, say, 70 for his career, his pct. would still be close to the Top 10 at 27.9% (I'll assume he doesn't top his two best seasons the rest of the way), but his career wouldn't seem quite as lopsided as it does now.

clemenza, Monday, 2 July 2018 16:56 (five years ago) link

There needs to be an adjustment for career length.

i think the way to do it would be to compare a player's best two seasons to the total of, say, their best 10 seasons. that way you're still measuring how much a couple outlier seasons contributed to that player's career, but you're not rewarding (or punishing) players who stuck around for a long time. but as k3vin said, JAWS does a similar kind of thing in measuring the best 7-season stretch of a career

Karl Malone, Monday, 2 July 2018 17:11 (five years ago) link

Greinke has a pretty solid shot at the HOF if he finishes up his career w/a string of seasons like this one, just to push that win total up into an area that'll make trad stat types happy, along w/his WAR probably getting towards Mussina/Schilling territory. it probably helps that at present there really only seem to be half a dozen other starting pitchers who are on a possible HOF track (Verlander, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Sabathia, Kluber if you're optimistic about him having a nice run deep into his thirties.)

omar little, Monday, 2 July 2018 17:18 (five years ago) link

Would love to see Kluber do it but oof the path is pretty narrow. Not saying it's impossible! Just that if he does it where are going to be all grateful to witness such a peak.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 July 2018 22:30 (five years ago) link

For career length if a player has it then it's fantastic and it's bonus points in my opinion, there is something pretty great as someone who plays for so long, there's value in that. On the other hand, and it might seem contradictory, but if a career is shortened for whatever reason it should not count against the player.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 July 2018 22:33 (five years ago) link

eh..disagree except in special circumstances

k3vin k., Monday, 2 July 2018 22:34 (five years ago) link

I'm a big hall guy anyway, get Reuschel and Lolich in imo.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 July 2018 22:34 (five years ago) link

To get Reuschel and Lolich in, it would indeed have to be a very big hall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-4-gLlF0uw

clemenza, Monday, 2 July 2018 22:40 (five years ago) link

hahaha

Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 July 2018 22:40 (five years ago) link

though ultimately it's not too different than what JAWS tries to do

I don't think that's right. The JAWS peak is based on seven seasons. Greinke's WAR7 right now is 46.3, which puts him within a couple of games either way of Palmer, Reuschel, Mussina, and Glavine, much more consistent pitchers who all score low (18-23%) on what I'm trying to isolate.

clemenza, Tuesday, 3 July 2018 12:51 (five years ago) link

https://t.co/Iyxv0lzyPX

let chase utley in

k3vin k., Monday, 16 July 2018 15:40 (five years ago) link

(fangraphs link)

k3vin k., Monday, 16 July 2018 15:41 (five years ago) link

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24200497/what-makes-member-hof-class-hall-famer

So why did Morris get elected? Maybe the root of the argument spins around this idea, something I've come around on as a plausible Hall of Fame discussion point: Can you tell the story of the player's era without that player being a prominent part of that story? A recent example is David Ortiz. If you're going strictly by career value, Ortiz's Hall of Fame case is murky, with just 55.3 WAR. But he obviously towered over the game; you can't tell the story of 2004 to 2016 without Ortiz as a central figure. You could make a similar argument for Yadier Molina, a player whose Hall of Fame case is better than his numbers.

That's kind of the Morris argument. He pitched one of the most famous games in baseball history. He won two games in the 1984 World Series for the Tigers, one of the best and most famous teams of the '80s. He was a workhorse in a decade in which many of the other top pitchers didn't stay healthy enough to cement their Hall of Fame cases. You can't really tell the story of the 1980s and 1991 without Morris as a main character.

And yet still closer to Livan Hernandez than Mike Mussina.

omar little, Friday, 27 July 2018 16:01 (five years ago) link

Six living, well-known players going in this weekend--that's got to be the most since the first couple of years.

clemenza, Friday, 27 July 2018 18:15 (five years ago) link

I read somewhere the other day that it's the most in quite a while, forget the timeframe now though

k3vin k., Friday, 27 July 2018 18:39 (five years ago) link

a full 2/3rds of them deserve it too.

omar little, Friday, 27 July 2018 21:39 (five years ago) link

It is a fucking travesty that Morris, not Whitaker, is entering the Hall of Fame.

Andy K, Saturday, 28 July 2018 00:07 (five years ago) link

I'm sure that Trammell and Morris will now push for Whitaker's induction (as Maddux and Glavine did with Smoltz), and that the Veteran's Committee will step in soon enough.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2018/07/25/detroit-tigers-lou-whitaker-alan-trammell-hall-fame/830271002/

clemenza, Saturday, 28 July 2018 01:35 (five years ago) link

at least 3.5 of the 6 deserve it

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 28 July 2018 01:58 (five years ago) link

Trammell and Morris got me looking at stats and players on that 84 Tiger team. I was 14 that season and followed that year like a hawk each week in the Sporting News. I remember the early season no-hitter that Jack Morris threw on the Saturday game of the week. I was watching it and my dad was working out in the garage and would keep popping in every now and then on the game. It was a really deep roster with great depth both on their bench and their pitching staff.

earlnash, Sunday, 29 July 2018 15:17 (five years ago) link

Historically great team, but I'll use that to correct a common misperception (I followed that year pretty closely too): that after their 35-5 start, Detroit ran away with the division. While they did win the division by +15.0 in the end, Toronto also had a fantastic start, and on June 6, after taking two of three from the Tigers, Toronto had moved to within 3.5 games; Detroit was 39-13 (so they'd just had a 4-8 stretch), Toronto 36-17. They never got that close again, although they were still within six on July 6.

clemenza, Sunday, 29 July 2018 15:34 (five years ago) link

One other thing that popped out on me checking out those Tigers 84 stats, check out Chet Lemon's WAR stats on Baseball Reference. I'm going to have to think about this one for a while, but dig this...his WAR offensive career numbers are pretty much the same as Dave Parker and Jim Rice. Both those guys had a couple thousand more at bats, but both had a couple years where they were arguably the best all around hitter in baseball (and 3 MVPs).

I could easily believe Lemon's defensive WAR numbers would be much better, as he was a good center-fielder and Rice was pretty much always bad in the field. Parker had an amazing arm, but his legs were all beat up bad a good portion of his career. That Chet's offensive WAR by their metrics career equivalent to Jim Rice and Dave Parker. I am going to have to mull that one over as I would not put him in the same level as those two guys.

earlnash, Sunday, 29 July 2018 21:56 (five years ago) link

Saw that no-hitter, too -- maybe three feet from the screen, lying on the floor, from first to last pitch.

I was envious of the Jays for their outfield and Stieb (an actual ace), not that I ever let my best friend (who was originally from Mississauga) know about it. Speaking of '84, this article he wrote (long after he returned to Mississauga and became famous) mentions Dave Collins, whose #deceptivespeed we joked about: https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/mendes-bracketology-b-sides/

Here's Chet. George Kell on the call and Gibson in left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7RMB5m-drU

Andy K, Monday, 30 July 2018 00:36 (five years ago) link

that promo is 100x better than any modern promo i've seen

Karl Malone, Monday, 30 July 2018 00:49 (five years ago) link

The hat-jersey mismatch on the scripted part is a nice touch.

Andy K, Monday, 30 July 2018 01:09 (five years ago) link

I'd have to check back, but I think James regularly cited Lemon as being in the running for most underrated player in the game in the old Abstracts.

clemenza, Monday, 30 July 2018 01:55 (five years ago) link

(Not hard to see why, in the context of player evaluation back then. He had the Amos Otis problem in getting noticed: he'd often hit 16-19 HR, not 20; score and/or knock in 70 or 80 runs, not 100; hit .270 or .280, not .300.)

clemenza, Monday, 30 July 2018 01:59 (five years ago) link

Four-time AL HBP champion!

Andy K, Monday, 30 July 2018 02:26 (five years ago) link

Joe Posnanski's 2019 round-up:

http://www.mlb.com/news/2019-hall-of-fame-ballot/c-288030220

clemenza, Monday, 30 July 2018 16:09 (five years ago) link

two months pass...

Longshot, but on the periphery: Jon Lester.

Next year will be his age-35 season. He's 177-98, 3.50, 44.6 WAR. No Cy Youngs, but four times in the Top 4. Good postseason record for his career in just under 150 innings. He'd probably need a great postseason this year and four or five more productive years--225 wins, 60 WAR--to have a chance.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 11:34 (five years ago) link

Probably no more than a 5% chance. But he is still pitching well, and past the obvious people--Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Sale, maybe Kluber--he and Hamels seem like the next best bets. He's in better shape than Felix right now. Sabathia, I'm not sure--he'd have to get in Morris-style at this point.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 11:45 (five years ago) link

Sabathia is 51st in career pitching bWAR (62.2). Morris is 137th.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 October 2018 11:58 (five years ago) link

True, but I think if he were to go in, people voting for him won't try to make a sabermetric case, they'll be touting his durability and bulk numbers, especially his 250+ wins. If there are any voters like that left when he retires, that is.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 12:10 (five years ago) link

Sabathia's chances are way better than Lester's right now. Besides the round numbers that the voters like (he'll reach 250 wins and 3000 K's next year), he pitched better for more years, and was far more dominant in his prime (and won a Cy Young).

Lester might have more at stake, HOF-wise, in the playoffs than any other pitcher. If he pitches well and the Cubs win or even reach the World Series, it'll go a long way towards cementing him as a "winner", Morris-style. He already has the reputation as a big game pitcher.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 12:13 (five years ago) link

In terms of peak years, there's not a striking difference between Sabathia and Morris. C.C.'s three best years were 6.4, 6.3, 6.2; Morris's were 5.9., 5.2, 5.2. Neither guy had anything close to one of those flashy, '78 Guidry-type seasons.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 12:14 (five years ago) link

(C.C.) was far more dominant

Doesn't show up in WAR. C.C. - 6.4, 6.3, 6.2; Lester - 6.2, 6.2, 5.6.

clemenza, Tuesday, 2 October 2018 12:17 (five years ago) link

don't have the JAWS numbers, but i think CC > Morris

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 October 2018 12:42 (five years ago) link


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