the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

Think this might actually end up strengthening May tbh.

She never appointed these clowns expecting them to stay the course after all.

xp the party members will be howling for her to go - can’t imagine that they’re far off 48 now

Labour MP comes out of the briefing. “Most surreal meeting ever. They are presenting a deal which is collapsing in front of our eyes. The projector doesn’t work. All anyone is talking about is Boris. It’s like the fucking Thick of It.”

out of all these people i have the most sympathy for the projectionist, it's a thankless position

https://images.gr-assets.com/books/1348201144l/889755.jpg

pic.twitter.com/f2nrM2xvEO

— wint MP (@parliawint) July 9, 2018

2m ago 15:55

Jeremy Corbyn says the cabinet Brexit deal took two years to negotiate and two days to unravel.

He mocks May’s claim that she has restored cabinet collective responsibility.

He says he understands why ministers did not resign on Friday; their phones were removed, they would have lost their cars, and, because of government cuts, there would have been no bus services.

out of all these people i have the most sympathy for the projectionist, it's a thankless position

― Karl Malone, Monday, 9 July 2018 14:49 (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the projectionist on the titanic went down with the captain, his family campaigned for years to have this remembered but the family of the deckchair-shuffler had saatchi on the case

Nasty this; told Boris Johnson informed No 10 earlier that he was going to resign this evening & they put out statement. “They think they’re terribly clever” said a friend.

— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) July 9, 2018

the clip of that Corbyn quote is too good not to post

pic.twitter.com/iKXhxAMuIZ

— meth lab for cutie (@AliceAvizandum) July 9, 2018

Friend of whom? Xp

<3 meth lab for cutie :D

BREAKING More Conservative Cabinet ministers will resign unless Theresa May drops her Chequers plan, senior Eurosceptic sources have told The Telegraph.
One source said: "This is defenestration by Cabinet. If you push on with Chequers you are going to lose you leadership."

— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) July 9, 2018

Silly - who would replace May at this point? Resigning from the cabinet is the easy bit.

I thought that was a given - surely they are staggering these to pile on the pressure. She is trying to keep them onside by appointing former leave campaigners, but is she going to change the policy (that won’t work anyway?) thing with the taxi cards was very much calling their bluff and presumably she won’t want to back down, but why not appoint people friendly to you in that case then? Idk

I'm not sure Remainers would be more friendly - there was a point made last Friday that the deal announced was only 'soft Brexit' after a year of JRM dragging the Overton window.

Who's more likely to make it to the weekend?

— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) July 9, 2018

None of the above

There isn't even remotely a Commons majority in favour of hard Brexit though, I'm not sure what the endgame is here beyond forcing a change of leader and hoping they win the subsequent election with a proper majority. And even then cliff edge approaching - unless that's the point.

Is there even a majority for hard Brexit within the Tory bloc of MPs?

i feel i should know this but does tories forcing a change of tory leader force an election?

i get the feeling that the hard brex crew are gunning for no deal instead of the thing that treezy is proposing

Is there even a majority for hard Brexit within the Tory bloc of MPs?

No, and certainly not at the expense of breaking the government and maybe letting Labour in.

i feel i should know this but does tories forcing a change of tory leader force an election?

It shouldn't but there's a public legitimacy issue as Gordon Brown found out.

No - there’s no way for hard Brexit to get through. The only thing Brexiteers can do is try to force it to No Deal. Which everybody but them acknowledges will he absolute carnage. Xp

Xp not necessarily but there’d be a lot of pressure to have one, especially if the new leader was significantly different in approach. There was some polling released over the weekend that said something like 60% of public would want a new election if the PM went.

AMAZING - David Davis says Boris Johnson shouldn't have resigned

"I had resigned because this was central to my job... I don’t think it’s central to the foreign secretary." (via @IainDale @lbc)

— Henry Mance (@henrymance) July 9, 2018

yes, that's what i thought -- except in a context like this i can't work out what "a public legitimacy issue" looks like any more, or how or where the "pressure" manifests

If it's Boris as the next PM, we can repurpose the balloons from the weekend coming.

i think the trza might just've crushed the wrong saboteurs

I’m not convinced Boris will make it to the final two. He left it too late.

There isn't time for a new election, unless the incoming government immediately begs for an A50 extension.

boris is not the next leader, or the next anything

but the balloons

Not even the next balloon?

what stet says: the key pressure currently -- legitimacy or no legitimacy -- is surely that the clock is inexorably running down on A50

Don't see May going just yet. It would need to be a Corbyn style 'coup' that fuelled the Owen Smith leadership challenge.

its coming, home secretary

xp that appears to be what they’re going for, just strung out for effect.

And this the week of Trump’s visit too.

I think the EU would grant an extension if one was requested in good faith and believe they’ve indicated as much. No deal doesn’t suit them either.

I mean, where do you start. pic.twitter.com/eqUKFglWEz

— Alex Nunns (@alexnunns) July 9, 2018

(the chicken coup resignations were also strung out)

https://cdn-04.independent.ie/incoming/article35635109.ece/89f7b/AUTOCROP/w620/DailyMail.PNG

What hilarious boast will she make next June 8th

requesting an extension in good faith is in fact one situation in which demonstrable political legitimacy would matter a LOT

Oh wait it’s July isn’t it doh

Kuenssberg is reporting rumours they have the 48 and and a meeting will happen at 17:30.

here we fucken go

but isn't the 5.30 meeting just may's pre-scheduled address to the 1922?

graham brady, chair of the 1922 committee would make a great stalking horse imo

https://image.ibb.co/iQa798/gb.jpg

all he needs are the ears

From te Guardian commenting on Laura K:

But it is possible that that there could be a link between Boris Johnson resigning and some letters going in - either because some Tories did not want to trigger a vote until they knew Johnson was available, or because Johnson was holding off resigning until he knew sufficient letters had been submitted.

So, if there's a challenge, and multiple challengers, the mps vote and then the top two are put to the membership, right?

Yes.

Yes. MPs will rally around unity candidates - in this case May and a Brexiteer with the best chance of beating her - and it goes to the members. But I don’t know how no conf works