the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

AMAZING - David Davis says Boris Johnson shouldn't have resigned

"I had resigned because this was central to my job... I don’t think it’s central to the foreign secretary." (via @IainDale @lbc)

— Henry Mance (@henrymance) July 9, 2018

yes, that's what i thought -- except in a context like this i can't work out what "a public legitimacy issue" looks like any more, or how or where the "pressure" manifests

If it's Boris as the next PM, we can repurpose the balloons from the weekend coming.

i think the trza might just've crushed the wrong saboteurs

I’m not convinced Boris will make it to the final two. He left it too late.

There isn't time for a new election, unless the incoming government immediately begs for an A50 extension.

boris is not the next leader, or the next anything

but the balloons

Not even the next balloon?

what stet says: the key pressure currently -- legitimacy or no legitimacy -- is surely that the clock is inexorably running down on A50

Don't see May going just yet. It would need to be a Corbyn style 'coup' that fuelled the Owen Smith leadership challenge.

its coming, home secretary

xp that appears to be what they’re going for, just strung out for effect.

And this the week of Trump’s visit too.

I think the EU would grant an extension if one was requested in good faith and believe they’ve indicated as much. No deal doesn’t suit them either.

I mean, where do you start. pic.twitter.com/eqUKFglWEz

— Alex Nunns (@alexnunns) July 9, 2018

(the chicken coup resignations were also strung out)

https://cdn-04.independent.ie/incoming/article35635109.ece/89f7b/AUTOCROP/w620/DailyMail.PNG

What hilarious boast will she make next June 8th

requesting an extension in good faith is in fact one situation in which demonstrable political legitimacy would matter a LOT

Oh wait it’s July isn’t it doh

Kuenssberg is reporting rumours they have the 48 and and a meeting will happen at 17:30.

here we fucken go

but isn't the 5.30 meeting just may's pre-scheduled address to the 1922?

graham brady, chair of the 1922 committee would make a great stalking horse imo

https://image.ibb.co/iQa798/gb.jpg

all he needs are the ears

From te Guardian commenting on Laura K:

But it is possible that that there could be a link between Boris Johnson resigning and some letters going in - either because some Tories did not want to trigger a vote until they knew Johnson was available, or because Johnson was holding off resigning until he knew sufficient letters had been submitted.

So, if there's a challenge, and multiple challengers, the mps vote and then the top two are put to the membership, right?

Yes.

Yes. MPs will rally around unity candidates - in this case May and a Brexiteer with the best chance of beating her - and it goes to the members. But I don’t know how no conf works

lol

For what it's worth, I am pretty sure crucial 48 letters from Tory MPs calling for a vote of confidence in @theresa_may's leadership have NOT been received by @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922 Tory backbench committee. And there won't be any announcement of a confidence vote tonight

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 9, 2018

Iain Duncan Smith resigned after a vote of no-confidence from mps, but I don't know if he *had* to, under the party's rules. Corbyn famously rode one out and went to the membership- I doubt that would work for May, against an hard brexit candidate. Basically the membership will vote for the most right wing, hard brexit candidate on the ballot.

fwiw I got a phone call at the weekend asking who I'd vote for if an election was called now, and they said at the end of the call it was for the Conservative party

Wonder if Trump would cancel the visit - we should know if we have a no conf by mid-week I should think.

Also wonder if those going for the Hard Brexit hastened this bcz of Trump's visit. May was trying to enforce soft Brexit, pretty much the end of major UK-US trade deal scenario.

all the "sources close to the government tell me" types are saying may would fight a no confidence, but i reckon if someone that she didn't loathe (and obviously not johnson) indicate that they they would stand, she'll quit.

If you lose a no-conf you have to go and you can’t stand in the leadership election that follows - Labour has different rules though

Yes, though May only needs a majority and if they are scratching around for 48 letters she will almost certainly get one.

So before there's a leadership election, there has to be a confidence vote? And if May wins that, no leadership challenge allowed?

i mean that if she determined with confidence that johnson would have credible opposition in a leadership battle, she'd call it a day before the vote (even one she's expected to win)

*the vote = the no confidence vote.

it does seem likely that she'd win one of those if she contested it.

Oh my god, I am LOVING the unnecessary drama surrounding the weird way in which Tory MPs get to trigger a leadership contest.

Quick recap for people who might have better things to do with their lives:

— Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian) January 25, 2018

Also Sir Anthony Meyer has been dead since 2004.

xp (nb from January)

My god, throwing Trump in on top of all this definitely puts it in Season Finale territory.

Any chance of arranging a visit to Salisbury for Trump?

so the leadership challenge letters are basically Suggest Bans?

season finale, final shot: royal keels over in the heat at sandringham, corgis mills abt oblivious

BREAKING Theresa May tells MPs Brexit White Paper will be published "next week". Not this Thursday, as had been planned.

— Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) July 9, 2018

nicola sturgeon approvingly tweeting henry kissinger’s thoughts on AI. getting that sweet sweet ratio

but i reckon if someone that she didn't loathe (and obviously not johnson) indicate that they they would stand, she'll quit.

As the soft brexit candidate? Can’t imagine who that would be who would get past any hard brexiteer when put to membership.

today in Everyone In Westminster Has Lost Their Goddamn Mind: pic.twitter.com/YOxDFGs1q6

— Marie Le Conte (@youngvulgarian) July 9, 2018

Meanwhile, on ConservativeHome...

Time for a new leader. Either we deliver a true Brexit or we die as a party and nation. We need a Brexiteer in charge.

Seriously you want to threaten half the jobs in the country and recast it as some 1950s rotting teeth hell hole loathed by half the people who live in it and your mandate is ...wait for it an election that failed to deliver a majority a bribe some courtly intrigue obscured by an over whelming fog of ignorance and wishful thinking ?
The people cannot be left out the future of the country, there must be an election and a referendum

If a hard Brexit candidate could generate, say, 70 votes it wouldn’t be that hard for two relatively centrist ones to divide up the remainder between them .