the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

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it wouldn’t be that hard for two relatively centrist ones to divide up the remainder between them

They know this and that’s why there’ll be a unity candidate.

xp Johnson is a lot more unpopular than he was two years ago but his stock might be rising again judging by the glowing article CH just published about him?

gyac, Monday, 9 July 2018 16:45 (five years ago) link

No way is there only going to be one Hard Brexit candidate.

Matt DC, Monday, 9 July 2018 16:48 (five years ago) link

how popular is boris johnson with the membership?

He isn't. He isn't popular with anyone outside of the media.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 16:49 (five years ago) link

It's taken as a statement of fact over there (xp - ConservativeHome) that the correct course of action would be crash out and keep the £40 billion - does anyone know what happens in those circumstances, can the mechanisms of the WTO be used to retrieve it from the UK?

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 9 July 2018 16:49 (five years ago) link

Did boris do one single thing as foreign sec that is seen by anyone at all as a success? His record for actually achieving stuff is abysmal

I'd Rather Kecak (NickB), Monday, 9 July 2018 16:51 (five years ago) link

the mechanisms of their not being any fucking food can be used to retrieve it from the UK. xp

stet, Monday, 9 July 2018 16:52 (five years ago) link

No way is there only going to be one Hard Brexit candidate.

The parliamentary party is not in favour of hard Brexit. They may put others forward but in order to avoid splitting the vote they will cluster around two, and the moderate/soft/whatever they’re calling them now will vote as a bloc to ensure their choice gets on the ballot.

Javid has been mentioned as a possible remain campaigner who’s got a foot in the leave camp (?£ who might be acceptable to both members and MPs

gyac, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:00 (five years ago) link

Did boris do one single thing as foreign sec that is seen by anyone at all as a success?


he took down an eight-year-old HARDCORE

https://media.giphy.com/media/3o85xDazgkTMedOX8A/giphy.gif

So is this an attempted right wing coup within an already right wing party?

Leaghaidh am brón an t-anam bochd (dowd), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:06 (five years ago) link

I believe it's 'Randing' xp

shaqiri tip (nashwan), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:06 (five years ago) link

it's the triggering of the official leadership challenge mechanism, so not really a coup at all, no

mark s, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:07 (five years ago) link

Boris's leaving letter is a long ramble about why we should stay in the EU, effectively. And how he couldn't think of any better way to protect cyclists in London than by changing the designs of lorries and then waiting a decade for them to be the majority on the roads.

stet, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:20 (five years ago) link

(x-post) A coup in the metaphorical sense - it's an attempt by the right of the party to take the leadership.

Leaghaidh am brón an t-anam bochd (dowd), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:21 (five years ago) link

"We are headed for the status of a colony" - Boris Johnson resignation statement

— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) July 9, 2018

Why anyone would think the British had treated their colonies badly or something.

gyac, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:22 (five years ago) link

Javid has been mentioned as a possible remain campaigner who’s got a foot in the leave camp (?£ who might be acceptable to both members and MPs

I hope someone not only briefs Trump on this possibility but convinces him Sajid Javid will be the next British Prime Minister.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:23 (five years ago) link

re metaphorical coup: at the moment i think it's just the rumour of the first exploratory gestures towards setting up a no-confidence vote in their leader: if she loses this (which is unlikely?)*, it THEN leads to a leadership contest which the brexit wing *might* win, tho it's by no means obvious that they would

*also if she wins, it greatly diminishes their leverage in the party, so this is a big risk for them to take

mark s, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:29 (five years ago) link

I guess I was considering to what degree it was coordinated among the Tory-right. But it doesn't matter - I'm too tired to think about it.

Leaghaidh am brón an t-anam bochd (dowd), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:43 (five years ago) link

The full letter:

Dear Theresa

It is more than two years since the British people voted to leave the European Union on an unambiguous and categorical promise that if the did so they would be taking back control of their democracy.

They were told that they would be able to manage their own immigration policy, repatriate the sums of UK cash currently spent by the EU, and, above all, that they would be able to pass laws independently and in the interests of the people of this country.

Brexit should be about opportunity and hope. It should be a chance to do things differently, to be more nimble and dynamic, and to maximise the particular advantages of the UK as an open, outward-looking global economy.

That dream is dying, suffocated by needless self-doubt.

We have postponed crucial decisions – including the preparations for no deal, as I argued in my letter to you of last November – with the result that we appear to be heading for a semi-Brexit, with large parts of the economy still locked in the EU system, but with no UK control over that system.

It now seems that the opening bid of our negotiations involves accepting that we are not actually going to be able to make our own laws. Indeed we seem to have gone backwards since the last Chequers meeting in February, when I described my frustrations, as Mayor of London, in trying to protect cyclists from juggernauts. We had wanted to lower the cabin windows to improve visibility; and even though such designs were already on the market, and even though there had been a horrific spate of deaths, mainly female cyclists, we were told that we had to wait for the EU to legislate on the matter.

So, at the previous Chequers session we thrashed out an elaborate procedure for divergence from EU rules. But even now that seems to have been taken off the table and there is in fact no easy UK right of initiative. Yet if Brexit is to mean anything, it must surely give ministers and parliament the chance to do things differently to protect the public. If a country cannot pass a law to save the lives of female cyclists – when that proposal is supported at every level of UK government – then I don’t see how that country can truly be called independent.

Conversely, the British government has spent decades arguing against this or that EU directive, on the grounds that it was too burdensome or ill-thought out. We are now in the ludicrous position of asserting that we must accept huge amounts of precisely such EU law, without changing it an iota, because it is essential for our economic health – and when we no longer have the ability to influence these laws as they are made.

In that respect we are truly headed for the status of colony – and many will struggle to see the economic or political advantages of that particular arrangement.

It is also clear that by surrendering control over our rulebook for goods and agrifoods (and much else besides) we will make it much more difficult to do free trade deals. And then there is the further impediment of having to argue for an impractical and undeliverable customs arrangement unlike any other in existence.

What is even more disturbing is that this is our opening bid. This is already how we see the end state for the UK – before the other side has made its counter-offer. It is as though we are sending our vanguard into battle with the white flags fluttering above them. Indeed, I was concerned, looking at Friday’s document, that there might be further concessions on immigration, or that we might end up effectively paying for access to the single market.

On Friday I acknowledged that my side of the argument were too few to prevail, and congratulated you on at least reaching a cabinet decision on the way forward. As I said then, the government now has a song to sing. The trouble is that I have practised the words over the weekend and find that they stick in the throat. We must have collective responsibility. Since I cannot in all conscience champion these proposals, I have sadly concluded that I must go.

I am proud to have served as foreign secretary in your government. As I step down, I would like first to thank the patient officers of the Metropolitan police who have looked after me and my family, at times in demanding circumstances. I am proud too of the extraordinary men and women of our diplomatic service. Over the last few months they have shown how many friends this country has around the world, as 28 governments expelled Russian spies in an unprecedented protest at the attempted assassination of the Skripals. They have organised a highly successful Commonwealth summit and secured record international support for this government’s campaign for 12 years of quality education for every girl, and much more besides. As I leave office, the [Foreign and Commonwealth Office] now has the largest and by far the most effective diplomatic network of any country in Europe - a continent which we will never leave.

xyzzzz__, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:51 (five years ago) link

If a country cannot pass a law to save the lives of female cyclists – when that proposal is supported at every level of UK government – then I don’t see how that country can truly be called independent.

0_o

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:53 (five years ago) link

i was going to pick the lies out of that letter but it's all lies isn't it?

he's one of our pwn (Noodle Vague), Monday, 9 July 2018 17:53 (five years ago) link

top 3:

1/ Colony
2/ Female cyclists
3/ The dream is dying

xyzzzz__, Monday, 9 July 2018 17:55 (five years ago) link

Given recent events, I will discuss my next political move on LBC at 7pm.

— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) July 9, 2018

HE'S READY

(am i doing this right)

I was concerned, looking at Friday’s document, that there might be further concessions on immigration, or that we might end up effectively paying for access to the single market.

wtf? He thinks that UK should exit the EU and still have full and free access to the EU?

A is for (Aimless), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:08 (five years ago) link

well, yeah

this has been their oft-repeated idee fixe for more than two years

mark s, Monday, 9 July 2018 18:12 (five years ago) link

if it seems not to make sense, aimless, it's because it's patently insane

I am told 1922 committee chairman Graham Brady made it clear that the 48 signatures that would start a leadership contest hadn’t been received

— iain watson (@iainjwatson) July 9, 2018

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:16 (five years ago) link

wtf? He thinks that UK should exit the EU and still have full and free access to the EU?

As an audience member on Question Time put it last week, "If you look at the car park outside, it's full of BMWs, Audis, Mercedes - they need us more than we need them". This is how these people think.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:25 (five years ago) link

Turns out the EU approved those lorry window regs Johnson is still complaining about — in 2014. While he was still mayor.

stet, Monday, 9 July 2018 18:28 (five years ago) link

But too late for the Fruity Female Cyclist act.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 9 July 2018 18:29 (five years ago) link

I can well believe Boris spends a lot of time thinking about female cyclists.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:31 (five years ago) link

pls don’t make me think about Horny Boris

He used to curry favour with the cycle couriers in the Duke of York as part of his bullshit man of the people table-football strategy. Pretty sure he’s never passed a lady bike saddle without sniffing it.

suzy, Monday, 9 July 2018 18:37 (five years ago) link

bizarro's plea went unheard

mark s, Monday, 9 July 2018 18:38 (five years ago) link

I'm regretting my initial post now tbh.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:43 (five years ago) link

Journalism!

Allies of Michael Gove suggest Michael Gove to be foreign secretary

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) July 9, 2018

shaqiri tip (nashwan), Monday, 9 July 2018 18:58 (five years ago) link

‘allies of michael gove’ might be the saddest phrase in the english language

Allies plural?

he's one of our pwn (Noodle Vague), Monday, 9 July 2018 19:05 (five years ago) link

All lies of Michael Gove suggest Michael Gove to be foreign secretary

shaqiri tip (nashwan), Monday, 9 July 2018 19:08 (five years ago) link

During Gove's last little period of political exile he looked finished. I think it was him appearing on late night current affairs shows and looking into Ed Balls apathetic dead eyes of oblivion, and realising that be him soon, that inspired him to grasp his next chance with his sweaty little grasping hands!

calzino, Monday, 9 July 2018 19:19 (five years ago) link

I can't possibly imagine how Gove as foreign sec might backfire. OTOH it's probably a sign that any serious challenge to May is likely to fizzle out.

On the other hand, if he turns it down then the cat really is among the pigeons.

Matt DC, Monday, 9 July 2018 19:22 (five years ago) link

Hunt is going into no.10.

Gove to Health is not implausible.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Monday, 9 July 2018 19:42 (five years ago) link

Hunt confirmed.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Monday, 9 July 2018 19:56 (five years ago) link

Spoonerism.

Alan Alba (Tom D.), Monday, 9 July 2018 19:57 (five years ago) link

My challenging opinion is that Jeremy Hunt would be relatively harmless as Foreign Secretary. Gove at Health would be a disaster.

Matt DC, Monday, 9 July 2018 19:58 (five years ago) link


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