Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Why the capitalist class does this is something of a mystery. Don't they love growth? Well, they do, but only under the right circumstances. They present themselves as concerned with growth, productivity, and output above all else, but it turns out they are in reality a lot more concerned with high profits and a politically quiescent working class. A big economic boom is fine, but a tight labor market requiring wage increases that come out of the capitalist share of the corporate surplus — or worse, workers confident that they can get another job organizing union drives — is horrifying to them. Our capitalist overlords think they deserve easy profits and beaten-down workers who will take crappy wages and bad benefits without a peep or protests, and mobilize politically to rig the economy to make that happen.

http://theweek.com/articles/783356/how-capitalist-class-strangling-american-economy

Testifying before Congress in 1997, Greenspan attributed the “extraordinary’” and “exceptional” performance of the nineties economy to “a heightened sense of job insecurity” among workers “and, as a consequence, subdued wages.”

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/01/federal-reserve-interest-rate-increase-janet-yellen-inflation-unemployment

janet-jackson-inflation-unemployment-control

Our Country was built on Tariffs, and Tariffs are now leading us to great new Trade Deals - as opposed to the horrible and unfair Trade Deals that I inherited as your President. Other Countries should not be allowed to come in and steal the wealth of our great U.S.A. No longer!

whenever I think a market correction is afoot it swings the other way immediately. I salute our algorithmic trading overlords.

dow down 1.17% yesterday
dow up 1.58% today

afaics, there are no obvious signs the party is over, yet.

otoh, the economy is surfing on big waves of misallocated capital, so it's obvious the party will end whenever the Fed chooses to raise rates far or fast enough to subdue the enthusiasm and flip greed to fear. 2019 seems about right, but who knows, really?

The general rumblings seem to be that tariff impact is playing out in so-far invisible ways -- less big plans being made by a wide variety of businesses, general caution, an eating of costs so as not to pass anything along to consumers. But there have been a slew of closings and relocations regardless, and the general sense is that things are worsening in ways that will become more evident with time. Which, a couple of months out from the midterms, is not exactly good timing.

Without pretending to be able to fully appreciate this myself, I think sometimes we fail to appreciate how international most "American" corporations are today both in production and in sale of their goods and services, so that it can be really hard to predict what something like a tariff will do to "our economy," if by our economy you mean our corporations (the stock market) rather than the people who live in this country.

i'm not an expert economist but it does seem to me there could be some reasons why republicans are good for markets. market volatility is driven, by and large, by ignorance, as a wise investor isn't going to do a lot of trades. at the same time there's no reason for someone (who has the capital) to _not_ invest in the markets - either in the long term one's investment will increase or capitalism will collapse and fiat money will be worthless. so a political situation like the one america has now encourages stupid people to put their money in the markets while discouraging rational investors from taking their money out of the markets.

Republicans are shit for markets and have been for decades. Read your recent history before you stick your foot in your dick again

Love the classic internet category of “I don’t have a clue, but I think...”

v specific but i pay attention because of work: rumors of four local(seattle) shipyards laying off because of tariffs, 400+ living wage jobs, but counter stories about ongoing federal contracts blunting that. nothing has happened yet, but first of this kind of rumor going around in 4+ years of watching closely

https://blogs-images.forbes.com/peterlazaroff/files/2016/07/2016-07-20-President-Market-Data.jpg

I should say that having known about DJ Trump as an investor since the late 90s, the prudent choice is to short any institution he's affiliated with, particularly after an early term run up to a management payday.

There’s still way too many people taking the long position on US debt to make money shorting it I would think

The implication of this really is incredible: regular people working 40 hours a week are essentially working one day per week for free, with all their pay for that day going to the top 1% https://t.co/q0O3mpZvke

— Jon Schwarz (@schwarz) August 20, 2018

this has always been a (the?) goal for foreign-government support of trump and the GOP, no?

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/100966

This month, officials from France, Germany, and the UK have begun planning with China and Russia a special payments channel that would allow these countries to defy new American sanctions against any company doing business with Iran. This payment channel would bypass the American-dominated international banking system and the dollar.

no, that's a specific response to Trump backing out of the Iran deal

'help put trump in office and egg him on to do stupid own-goal isolationist BS' is what i was getting at

hi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH476CxJxfg

also lol at the last 2 hours https://www.coinbase.com/charts

Probably for the best all things considered

Until things turn down by roughly 10% from the recent high water mark, this doesn't even qualify as a "correction". This could be due to traders tea-leaf reading, based on Trump's trade wars and uneasiness about the midterms, but without more data solidly showing retrenchment, this is just a round of profit-taking.

Tbh I care more about interest rates continuing to go up than the stock market doing anything in particular, cheap debt has a lot of societal fuckery to answer for

the NYT article says the markets will be back up on friday when several banks report Q3 results, which is going to show that sweet tax cut that will trickle down to the rest of us in Q4.

silby otm. the markets are not the economy but interest rates (and therefore housing and debt) are a big deal practically and electorally (which presumably is why trump is openly criticizing fed policy).

At this point in the cycle, those interest rates need to be creeping up.

totally. trump is wrong.

Trump was bloviating about how the Fed was keeping rates too low, what, a year ago?

I put it on another thread, but the general market needs to pull back at least by 30%. I hope it tanks the rest of the quarter. I've been waiting for it. It's like watching only the beginning of The Big Short over and over. The housing market is already mushy. And all this new money in the market from from people who haven't had to weather a downturn before..

it's difficult, i mean, i _could_ pull back but at this point it's, you know, either the markets will recover or capitalism will collapse, and either way i don't have an incentive to not invest.

Yeah, the only reason not to invest is if you need money *right now* or very soon, like retirement. Otherwise, my understanding is that invested wealth doubles every 7-10 years or something, unless yeah, the economy collapses and never recovers.

I want to cash out my 401k before the market crashes and the world is submerged by the melting ice caps

good to have cash 2 set on literal fire for warmth

I mean if you have sizable gains already you could cash out partial at least, you can always rebuy it back on dips. Don't lose all profits because you are married to a position. I am thrilled I got out of some equities on recent run ups. I missed out on additional gains but all are now under where I sold them anyway. Also I had a lot of 3xs lev etfs that are bearish so those were my hedge.

Also, I think it's funny if we start the next recession almost on the 10 year anniversary of Lehman. It was jokingly expected.

market apparently shrugging off yesterday like it was nothin'

feels like a trap

lol you called it

https://dev.tradingsim.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Bear-Trap-3-1024x385.png

my 'shrug it off' comment is no longer valid.. 1% drop just turned into a 2% drop in 30 minutes

So I am hoping that no one will want to hold over the weekend and that will further the decline tomorrow and then asia will be all messed up when they start trading on our sunday that we can really get this recession started.

the classic trap-two-bears-n-let-em-go trend

wheeeeeee

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue think about quitting my job.

All potential candidates should be led into the interview by a disinterested third party after they've donned an oversized burlap suit (and, naturally, a matching hood which covers the entire head). All responses to interview questions should be tapped out in morse code lest the interviewer lapse into unconscious bias triggered by hearing a human voice.

Wow, was that ever the wrong thread!

Eh, I've been through more degrading job interviews.

so many little shitbins surrounding the big shitbin.

🎵 i’m a little shitbin, short and stout 🎵