the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

i guess the bulk of polling and focus group stuff is intended to shape public opinion rather than to describe it

*glumly deletes an entire paragraph from current job application cover letter*

the notion of Blair, Mandelson etc being conviction socialists who were reluctantly dragged to the centre as a result of their rigorous scientific analysis of people's legitimate concerns is not really gonna fly

insert tasteless "Harriet Harman PIE charts" joek here

you can make just about anything stand up with data, if you are selective with the stats then just about any spurious assertion by some politician/gov minister can be made plausible. Like finding some shit non-league forward who has a similar shots to goals ratio as Mbappe and claiming he's worth 100 mill or when Burnley did an attempt at Moneyball and the data led them to believe Brian Laws was the best manager outside the Prem! As people have said there will always be incompetence or ppl conveniently finding the data they needed.

I do think that the Labour MPs who were voting (or failing to vote against) the dismantling of their entire political project were doing so out of cowardice and stupidity rather than ideology fwiw.

In any case, "relucantly dragged to the centre" is pretty misleading given the whole point of the project should be to move the centre to where you are - Blair and Mandelson were incredibly successful at that until suddenly they weren't. But you can't win without the support of the conviction socialists who are reluctantly dragged to the centre and it's why repeating 90s political tricks 20 years on won't work.

It's the same reason why I think it's missing the point to argue whether Brexit is about national identity or economic anxiety - it's clearly both, but the cunts can't win without getting the economically anxious onboard. The whole project for social liberals should be to work out how to split those constituencies.

There was an excellent series of articles by Mark Wallace not that long after last year's election about how this screwed up the Tories (who you'd have expected to have some advance warning) even more - outdated data and letting go the people who'd won the previous election leading to funneling activists (who now fucking hate them) away from seats that they considered safe (but lost by small margins) into the advance front, where they ended up losing by 5-6000 votes.

There’s a lot about Labour Southside vs. Team Corbyn in the Alex Nunns book, everyone should read IMHO.

many xps but Re the novichok, the poison being dumped by the assassins in a skip for civilians to die of sounds very plausible to me. The logic being, what sort of person would sign up for a job as an assassin? Someone a bit unhinged who would make a mistake exactly like that, no?

Or else they would be extremely businesslike and professional - like they are in the movies.

well you'd think their employers might discourage them from doing anything to cause further diplomatic problems with the nation where they are murdering their targets. Maybe make them watch that Assassins movie with Stallone!

Or else they would be extremely businesslike and professional - like they are in the movies.

those people are very expensive to train, retain and keep quiet afterwards. and in the end they get caught on tape anyway, so at this point it probably makes perfect sense to just hand off the very specific toolset and instruction manual to some local thugs and hope for "good enough" results?

fiction authors & screenwriters like to paint the world as if there's a steady stream of work for extremely intelligent, careful and capable thugs, because that's how you build a franchise; but no such thing exists (outside of a particularly cynical view of US SOCOM, I guess) in the real world.

I mean the easiest answer to the novichok shit, in my mind, is that it was provided through a series of middlemen to a local criminal or two, and somewhere along the way the dosage amounts and the disposal requirements got muddled (or ignored)

& yeah it's totally a trial balloon to see what they can get away with now that an anti-NATO, anti-EU POTUS is in place thanks to the abysmally antidemocratic nature of our Constitution and the ratfucking machinations of various GRU and affiliated fucks, dressed with the useful idiocy of Jim Comey

am completely losing track of wtf is going w/votes today

any news?

this could be the day this govt unravels, so perhaps BBC radio is not the best option for updates.

They've accepted ERG amendments, saying they fit in with Chequers while everyone else says they undermine it

Source says government imposed one condition in agreeing amendments to Customs bill made by ERG and @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, which in effect kills Chequers plan - "that no one from the ERG crowed about it and that there was no triumphalism". It is all about the substance you see

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 16, 2018

May was originally proposing to collect EU tariffs but one of the key amendments -- proposed by Priti Patel -- would ban her from doing this unless there was a reciprocal agreement in place for the EU to collect duties due on goods destined for the U.K.

They're all fucking mental

how many can the govt afford to lose in a vote?

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-accused-of-running-scared-of-her-brexiteers-amid-plans-to-let-mps-take-early-summer-break_uk_5b4cbd9ee4b022fdcc5bf073?hdt&utm_hp_ref=uk-homepage

sounds about right

the government can only lose 1 or 2 votes if everyone turns up, right? 650 mps, 316 conservative + 10 DUP?

is it that simple?

how many of those 5 independents are likely to vote with the government? elphicke is presumably not there for a start

of those 5 independents, 3 are ex-labour and 1 is an ex-conservative all with sex-related allegations. not sure if any of them will vote.

one is a legit independent from northern ireland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sylvia_Hermon

I’m not sure what you mean by Elphicke?

In order to beat the government labour need to minimise abstainers/defectors. Of the 4 independents only one (Kelvin Hopkins) is likely to vote with government on Brexit, but it depends what the argument being made is. They obviously aren’t subject to the whip.

This also relies on all Tory MPs voting with the government and several have indicated that they will oppose.

It’s really down to Tory remainers, as it always has been.

xp the independents definitely do vote

Public Service Announcement. We expect seven divisions from 9pm:
1 - NC 11
2 - NC 13
3 - NC 16
4 - NC 36
5 - Amdt 21
6 - Amdt 73
7 - Third Reading

— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) July 16, 2018

This thread will tell you which votes are which and vote breakdown is usually here: https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/ (though the app is quicker)

xp to Simon - yeah, this just such an amazingly terrible look, even by this government's standards.

Here is is: Government lay down a motion to give MPs an early summer holiday! This is NOT going to go down well... pic.twitter.com/nAeBlQVAGU

— Zach Brown (@zachjourno) July 16, 2018

i don't mean are they entitled to vote. i mean do they vote in practice. i'm guessing elphicke is not voting as of a couple of months ago given the nature of the allegations/police involvement but who knows. obviously there's nothing legally stopping him.

Yes they definitely do vote in practice. Elphicke spoke in the debate an hour ago.

Recess thing is like, on the one hand they’ve got a ticking clock to debate Brexit legislation and basically no time to do i; on the other there’s been barely any legislation passed in this parliament so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

45 mps did not vote or abstained in that first ballot so i give up trying to count rebels ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are six independents, I should say - 4 ex Lab, 1 ex Conservative and Lady Hermon as mentioned. Looks like enough Labour MPs abstained & no Tory rebels. (Also don’t forget the Sinn Fein MPs in parliamentary maths)

the government can only lose 1 or 2 votes if everyone turns up, right? 650 mps, 316 conservative + 10 DUP?
is it that simple?

Sinn Fein

27 votes = 14 needed to go the other way.

ah right

Liz Truss has just said at the IEA the Tories need to support the free market like Beyoncé and quoted: “All the women, who are independent. Throw your hands up at me. All the honeys, who making money.”

— Grant Tucker (@GrantTucker) July 16, 2018

Truss has been on the spice again.

3 votes in it, fuck's sake

Supposedly a government minister broke the whip to vote against? Another one out...

they are voting on a motion for an earlier summer recess tomorrow, lol!

xp. Guto Bebb, who just spent recent days bemoaning the resignations of BoJo, et al.

yeah, keunssberg says he's resigned.

Those 3 votes - Hoey, Field and Stringer voted with the government.

quel fucking surp

I bet it would be a lot of fun hanging out with this trio!

assuming i was armed it would be great

So amendment 73 that got passed makes it illegal for there to be a NI-specific customs area. But that’s what the backstop was, and without the backstop there is no transition - so it’s hardest of Brexits, unless the entire UK stays in the customs union. And you can’t have that without EEA/“no control over borders”. Which May apparently can’t stomach.

So that’s it, then, right? It’s Hard Brexit, or a May climbdown over immigration, or another Election, or another ref.

I’m genuinely surprised they allowed themselves to get boxed in like this. Especially with all the “it doesn’t change Chequers at all” bollocks. This blows Chequers out the water.

feels like we're heading for a no deal brexit, and a hard border in the six counties

On my grumpier days I want the full hard Brexit experience to happen because then at least the gammons will have nothing to whine about

Sorry it was amendment 37 that stops the NI-only customs area. That went through without a vote. 73 says we have to be out of the EU VAT area. It’s these two combined which mean it’s basically WTO disaster or EEA.

And May can’t get anything like EEA done. So better stockpile corned beef.

Aren't they still betting on a magical technological solution that is all things to all men vis-a-vis Northern Ireland?