the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

xp the independents definitely do vote

Public Service Announcement. We expect seven divisions from 9pm:
1 - NC 11
2 - NC 13
3 - NC 16
4 - NC 36
5 - Amdt 21
6 - Amdt 73
7 - Third Reading

— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) July 16, 2018

This thread will tell you which votes are which and vote breakdown is usually here: https://commonsvotes.digiminster.com/ (though the app is quicker)

xp to Simon - yeah, this just such an amazingly terrible look, even by this government's standards.

Here is is: Government lay down a motion to give MPs an early summer holiday! This is NOT going to go down well... pic.twitter.com/nAeBlQVAGU

— Zach Brown (@zachjourno) July 16, 2018

i don't mean are they entitled to vote. i mean do they vote in practice. i'm guessing elphicke is not voting as of a couple of months ago given the nature of the allegations/police involvement but who knows. obviously there's nothing legally stopping him.

Yes they definitely do vote in practice. Elphicke spoke in the debate an hour ago.

Recess thing is like, on the one hand they’ve got a ticking clock to debate Brexit legislation and basically no time to do i; on the other there’s been barely any legislation passed in this parliament so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

45 mps did not vote or abstained in that first ballot so i give up trying to count rebels ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are six independents, I should say - 4 ex Lab, 1 ex Conservative and Lady Hermon as mentioned. Looks like enough Labour MPs abstained & no Tory rebels. (Also don’t forget the Sinn Fein MPs in parliamentary maths)

the government can only lose 1 or 2 votes if everyone turns up, right? 650 mps, 316 conservative + 10 DUP?
is it that simple?

Sinn Fein

27 votes = 14 needed to go the other way.

ah right

Liz Truss has just said at the IEA the Tories need to support the free market like Beyoncé and quoted: “All the women, who are independent. Throw your hands up at me. All the honeys, who making money.”

— Grant Tucker (@GrantTucker) July 16, 2018

Truss has been on the spice again.

3 votes in it, fuck's sake

Supposedly a government minister broke the whip to vote against? Another one out...

they are voting on a motion for an earlier summer recess tomorrow, lol!

xp. Guto Bebb, who just spent recent days bemoaning the resignations of BoJo, et al.

yeah, keunssberg says he's resigned.

Those 3 votes - Hoey, Field and Stringer voted with the government.

quel fucking surp

I bet it would be a lot of fun hanging out with this trio!

assuming i was armed it would be great

So amendment 73 that got passed makes it illegal for there to be a NI-specific customs area. But that’s what the backstop was, and without the backstop there is no transition - so it’s hardest of Brexits, unless the entire UK stays in the customs union. And you can’t have that without EEA/“no control over borders”. Which May apparently can’t stomach.

So that’s it, then, right? It’s Hard Brexit, or a May climbdown over immigration, or another Election, or another ref.

I’m genuinely surprised they allowed themselves to get boxed in like this. Especially with all the “it doesn’t change Chequers at all” bollocks. This blows Chequers out the water.

feels like we're heading for a no deal brexit, and a hard border in the six counties

On my grumpier days I want the full hard Brexit experience to happen because then at least the gammons will have nothing to whine about

Sorry it was amendment 37 that stops the NI-only customs area. That went through without a vote. 73 says we have to be out of the EU VAT area. It’s these two combined which mean it’s basically WTO disaster or EEA.

And May can’t get anything like EEA done. So better stockpile corned beef.

Aren't they still betting on a magical technological solution that is all things to all men vis-a-vis Northern Ireland?

who even knows any more?

No, that plan is (even more) fucked because the amendment tonight means we can’t collect EU tariffs (which the magic tech would supposedly have let us do) without the EU also collecting UK-set tariffs in each of the 27 (which is never going to happen)

The ERG amendments were basically designed to work together to force hard Brexit. Which is why I’m quite surprised this wasn’t spotted earlier

Actually I’m not. The reason it wasn’t spotted was because you have to take the EU27 into account to see the problem. Which they are utterly unable to do, assuming that BMW will fix it for them somehow.

There are people claiming that the Patten amendment last month makes the VAT one illegal - it's far too late for me to have much of an opinion.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/02/pmqs-may-corbyn-brexit-rees-mogg-claims-tory-brexiter-customs-partnership-warning-will-help-may-politics-live

Tim Farron missed the vote to give a self-justifying talk on his religious homophobia, sums up the lol LibDems!

On my grumpier days I want the full hard Brexit experience to happen because then at least the gammons will have nothing to whine about

I like how this sentiment manages to be both nihilistic and cloud-cuckooland optimistic at the same time. Kudos.

The gammons will always have something to whine about, what they complain about when they have (in theory) everything they want is the really scary bit.

lads dont make us send the corkmen up there to sort ye out again

My tongue was in my cheek when I said "nothing to whine about", obv these people are defined by their whining. Still, I think letting people enjoy the full consequences of their actions is an understandable grim daydream.

Turn Gibraltar into a gammon colony and send them all there IMO.

bacon whined

Oh wait Gibraltar gets a vote, Isle of Man instead.

to run free with the Barbary Macaques

I thought Gibraltar already was Gammon central.

Gibraltar voted remain

Voted something like 99% to stay in EU.

Sorry, I exaggerated, it was 95.91%.

rock solid

need some landlocked colony somewhere, don't give them any sea access!

oh it's called Beverley.

I mean what's really cloud cuckoo land about the idea is that you know damn well we could end up living in some cross between Mad Max and rationing era austerity and as the cases of kids with rickets climbed thru the roof and the nu Ra started bombing the shit out of all and sundry these cunts would still be adamant that it was somebody else's fault

Liechtenstein and Uzbekistan are both double-landlocked. Send them to the latter IMO.

I think Gibraltar voting Remain has purely pragmatic reasons that don't contradict my assumption that it's full of expat nazis

Don't send them to Uzbekistan ffs that's still my dream getaway

not sure we should be risking our future trade deals with Uzbekistan by sending over the gammons TBH