the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

feels like we're heading for a no deal brexit, and a hard border in the six counties

On my grumpier days I want the full hard Brexit experience to happen because then at least the gammons will have nothing to whine about

Sorry it was amendment 37 that stops the NI-only customs area. That went through without a vote. 73 says we have to be out of the EU VAT area. It’s these two combined which mean it’s basically WTO disaster or EEA.

And May can’t get anything like EEA done. So better stockpile corned beef.

Aren't they still betting on a magical technological solution that is all things to all men vis-a-vis Northern Ireland?

who even knows any more?

No, that plan is (even more) fucked because the amendment tonight means we can’t collect EU tariffs (which the magic tech would supposedly have let us do) without the EU also collecting UK-set tariffs in each of the 27 (which is never going to happen)

The ERG amendments were basically designed to work together to force hard Brexit. Which is why I’m quite surprised this wasn’t spotted earlier

Actually I’m not. The reason it wasn’t spotted was because you have to take the EU27 into account to see the problem. Which they are utterly unable to do, assuming that BMW will fix it for them somehow.

There are people claiming that the Patten amendment last month makes the VAT one illegal - it's far too late for me to have much of an opinion.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2018/may/02/pmqs-may-corbyn-brexit-rees-mogg-claims-tory-brexiter-customs-partnership-warning-will-help-may-politics-live

Tim Farron missed the vote to give a self-justifying talk on his religious homophobia, sums up the lol LibDems!

On my grumpier days I want the full hard Brexit experience to happen because then at least the gammons will have nothing to whine about

I like how this sentiment manages to be both nihilistic and cloud-cuckooland optimistic at the same time. Kudos.

The gammons will always have something to whine about, what they complain about when they have (in theory) everything they want is the really scary bit.

lads dont make us send the corkmen up there to sort ye out again

My tongue was in my cheek when I said "nothing to whine about", obv these people are defined by their whining. Still, I think letting people enjoy the full consequences of their actions is an understandable grim daydream.

Turn Gibraltar into a gammon colony and send them all there IMO.

bacon whined

Oh wait Gibraltar gets a vote, Isle of Man instead.

to run free with the Barbary Macaques

I thought Gibraltar already was Gammon central.

Gibraltar voted remain

Voted something like 99% to stay in EU.

Sorry, I exaggerated, it was 95.91%.

rock solid

need some landlocked colony somewhere, don't give them any sea access!

oh it's called Beverley.

I mean what's really cloud cuckoo land about the idea is that you know damn well we could end up living in some cross between Mad Max and rationing era austerity and as the cases of kids with rickets climbed thru the roof and the nu Ra started bombing the shit out of all and sundry these cunts would still be adamant that it was somebody else's fault

Liechtenstein and Uzbekistan are both double-landlocked. Send them to the latter IMO.

I think Gibraltar voting Remain has purely pragmatic reasons that don't contradict my assumption that it's full of expat nazis

Don't send them to Uzbekistan ffs that's still my dream getaway

not sure we should be risking our future trade deals with Uzbekistan by sending over the gammons TBH

silk, spices, in exchange for our wool and timber will be the idea

back in the days of Khanate rule, you'd really want Boris to be foreign sec - just for the good chance he'd piss somebody off and get boiled alive!

He should away and bile his heid, at the very least.

Only just realised that Cable and Farron weren't even in Parliament to vote yesterday. Brexit is literally the entire focus of their party now, they have nothing else, and then they fuck up like this.

This the crucial Tory Rebel Remainer amendment to be voted on today. NC18. It would force @theresa_may to negotiate membership of customs union if she fails to negotiate her free & frictionless trade area for goods. If all LibDems & Lab turn up, the rebels have the numbers pic.twitter.com/X362cs3Cyf

— Robert Peston (@Peston) July 17, 2018

This seems significant as well?

tbf Farron was giving a talk on religious homophobia, pro of course!

https://farm3.static.flickr.com/2598/3950169973_5a539fcc7d_b.jpg

cable should straight-up resign

b-but I thought the whole LolDem raisan d'etre was to prop up Tories at any cost to the party.

lads dont make us send the corkmen up there to sort ye out again

― dele alli my bookmarks (darraghmac), Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Fun!

So, the fine has been levied. Vote Leave and BeLeave illegally colluded in order to overspend in the run up to the vote. On to of LeaveEU's transgressions. An organised, deliberate attempt to buy the process. This happened. This is real. The result is fraudulent. Happy Tuesday.

— Fraser Campbell (@FraserC69) July 17, 2018

Good thread here as well.

I'm not sure "the result is fraudulent" holds up when a 'clean' re-run would likely deliver the same result, but the rest of it is pertinent.

tbf Farron was giving a talk on religious homophobia, pro of course!

I’m honestly shocked that this was what happened. They have said that Cable and Farron had permission not to be there as they thought Labour would abstain, which seems reasonably logical but I can’t get why a Lib Dem, of all parties, wouldn’t see how this looks. Just hideous optics all round.

Anyway the Tory remain rebels are bringing a customs union backstop amendment tonight which Labour will be supporting - hopefully there aren’t any pressing village hall talks about marriage equality going on.

Seems pretty obvious now that Labour's main objective is to inflict a govt-shattering defeat and force an election, I think they will vote against whatever the government proposes that isn't out-and-out soft Brexit, or as close to it as possible, and they might just vote against everything.

This appears to have gone over the head of the FPBE idiots who have been hammering Corbyn for months but they just look like utter clowns when their cult leaders can't be bothered to turn up to a crucial vote.

I'm not sure "the result is fraudulent" holds up when a 'clean' re-run would likely deliver the same result, but the rest of it is pertinent.

I don't think it's reasonable to read it as "and so in fact the opposite of the original vote is the settled fact" - though I'm aware there are a lot of the unreasonable about.

Tim Farron'll never be played by John Simm now.

xp they’ve trailed them voting down the final deal for a long time now, your analysis is otm.

Don’t worry about the fbpe crowd, they’re already latching onto the thing about Labour abstaining as though this absolves them.

And Chequers was dead - the EU weren’t going to wear it. If May has used her leverage over the Remainers, then she’s got even less breathing room than before.

*if* they can force a general election and of course much bigger if win it, an incoming Labour gov will have no choice but to make some pretty inflamatory decisions about how to Brexit - surely not whether to tho. a workable majority ought to give them 4 years breathing space and the ensuing depletion of the Full Brexit crew via strokes and coronaries might just shift the agenda away from them.

A lot depends on whether the EU can be persuaded to offer the UK an extended transition period, otherwise I'm not sure Labour are going to be thanked by the electorate for breaking the government with the cliff-edge approaching, even if we were about to go over the cliff anyway.

yeah this would be my big concern, it's almost worth leaving them with the unpinned grenade in their own hands at this point