the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

not especially political before, were Corbynized and became his biggest fans

This is a bit beside the point but it’s incredible more than a year after the election that people are still pushing the “voters only voted Labour begrudgingly cos they knew he wouldn’t win” line again - no less a source than the British Election Study found the exact opposite. People who thought labour could or would win a majority were more likely to vote Labour.

I mean, I know a few parties that that voting record would be welcome in at various times.

when I see the usual "ohh you're one of the good ones, you'd be very welcome in another party!" #FBPE stuff, because, nope

It kills me when they claim to be disgruntled Labour voters/ex-members when they carry on like this about people whose voting records would be anomalies in the actual Labour Party. Tells you what they’re in it for.

I think that trying to make that (very large) demographic choose between Corbyn and Remain is likely to be seriously counterproductive for Remain and anyone who's really pushing at that faultline is an idiot. But I'm pretty sure the Labour leadership understand that they can't afford to lose those voters - not that there's anywhere for them to go right now.

I'm sure that C+P doesn't really show the full hideous spectrum of the Soubry voting record, she's just as bad as most of them despite the moderate One Nation rhetoric iirc.

I have been trying to put something together about the English electorate's attitude to voting and fear and mistrust of anything except FPTP for ten minutes and am only just generating hissing - can I just call you all cunts and be done?

I used to think PR might be a scary prospect during periods of when UKIP type riff-raff start polling high, but when the Cons effectively became UKIP, idk - what difference does FPTP actually make?

"Almost always voted for higher taxes on alcoholic drinks"

Soubry's subhuman scum obv

any reform of the electoral system in isolation is going go be unsatisfactory

People who thought labour could or would win a majority were more likely to vote Labour.

I mean this is a statistically observable phenomenon in a lot of elections, where people are more likely to vote for the people they think are most likely to win. this hasn’t let a whole bunch of clod-headed centrist pundits try push the line that it’ll be different next time out as people see corbyn almost grasp power and will turn away from him at that point.... well, no... I mean, it likely will be different, in that this will likely multiply his vote not collapse it

it’s up there with the worst of their received punditocracy wisdom alongside “neck in neck in the polls with the worst govt in recent memory... chuka/yvette/ANYother would be twenty points ahead by now”. there’s been little (no?) good analysis done on exactly why the polls stay stubborn at 40 points a piece.

my hunch (starting to be confirmed by the recent poll showing a slide in the CON vote) is that a core 8-10 points of their lead is an entrenched UKIP which will start leaking as the brexit may drives through softens

any reform of the electoral system in isolation is going go be unsatisfactory

No, I completely agree. For example

Don’t know you could argue for Remain in that instance if the two Leave votes > the Remain vote.

except that this is the way a three-way system would work - if there are more people that would like to stay or would ideally like a soft Brexit, but would prefer staying to Chirpy Singapore, then that's what we'll get. And it's based on allowing people to answer more than one question at once, to get past the idea that offering anything more nuanced than "This one now, how long will I have to wait, I brought a thermos?" is indistinguishable from selling yourself down the river of "well, you expressed this choice..".

And the reason that reform won't by itself resolve the situation that you will still have to dice, boil or skewer the majority of the populace to stop their "But - I wanted the other one" shite.

i have noticed that when i drive my brexit through, any softening leads to leaks in the runup. particularly when it's REALLY entrenched

They might be further ahead with a leader with less baggage than Corbyn but definitely not from that wing of the party. Those voters would either be Tory Remainers or LibDems and I'm not sure any of them would be able to switch in sufficient numbers.

I suspect there are literally millions of people out there who are only voting Tory because of Brexit and that once it happens the party is likely to crumble into dust with the chalice in their hands.

FWIW I'm pretty sure I now believe the referendum should be rerun, in a large part because the idea that you can overspend by more than half a million and still basically get away will be disastrous for our democracy and can't be allowed to take hold. Fines certainly won't work.

keep the result but jail the fuckers

I mean definitely not with a leader from the Chuka / Yvette wing, to clarify.

there’s been little (no?) good analysis done on exactly why the polls stay stubborn at 40 points a piece.

Stephen Bush had a piece on this recently where he concluded that the mythical 20 points to be picked up couldn’t exist.

Meanwhile:

Reports that Tory rebels are being threatened with a general election if they defeat the government of a new clause 18

— PARLY (@ParlyApp) July 17, 2018

None of these fuckers are going to jail BTW.

I'm not entirely sure that I understand the Stephen Bush line that Matt quoted earlier - is it to say that asking "food shortages y/n" is irresponsible because what if the voters say 'y'?

Xp no I know I was just thinking outside the box

Or at least no one that matters is going to jail, and future poll fiddlers might conclude that the imprisonment of a few dumb fucks stupid enough to leave a paper trail is a price worth paying to get what they want.

Yeah but this government is so far short of the power or authority to demand a rerun that you might as well fantasize

It's becoming very apparent that they are far short of the power or authority required to pursue any of the available options.

I can no longer work out if headlines like 'May suffers surprise Brexit Commons defeat' are good or bad.

in case you're wondering which FIVE Labour MPs voted with the government - preventing an epic crisis in May's leadership - they are: Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) July 17, 2018

Poll on which one you like most.

I can't believe I haven't heard Hoey's dulcet tones reading any of my fave Audible books!

https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1348594963i/820338._UY400_SS400_.jpg

Just how low will your govt stoop @theresa_may? When @andrealeadsom delayed proxy voting motions, she *assured* those of us who were pregnant that we would be paired when necessary. Today your govt broke that agreement - @BrandonLewis paired with me but voted. Desperate stuff. pic.twitter.com/CcgF7z8MOV

— Jo Swinson (@joswinson) July 17, 2018

I love inter-factional tory infighting

I love it when Tories attempt feigned shock at, that ..gasp one of their peers turns out to be an amoral and untrustworthy shitbag!

Wasn't Thatcher brought to power on the back of a no confidence vote that passed due to pairing shenanigans? My memory is so bad these days.

according to wiki your memory is quite right and I have vague memories of watching "A Parliamentary Coup" before. Although it was one crucial vote lost to a dying labour backbencher Sir Alfred Broughton, who Callaghan wasn't ruthless enough to wheel in to the vote on a death-bed. And then some pairing shenanigans between a Labour whip getting played by a Tory occurred.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dFXEPUb2-E

As ever the Tories acted like unscrupulous cunts.

Acted

John Woodcock leaves the Labour Party and attacks JC.

As far as I can recall he is a horrible person.

I hope Labour defeat him at the next election.

Majority of 209, well played Mr. Woodcock. Anyway, he may as well get his mug in the papers today because you'll never hear from him again - unless he goes down the reality TV route.

Labour might not be able to finish the investigation into the accusations of sexual harassment against him, but I’m guessing they were about to find against him.

Pope/Catholic etc.

politics aside this does raise issues about the way the Labour party is conducting its HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA GET TAE FUCK

I mean, the whole sub idea does seem like something Musk just pulled out of his arse

I don't judge a book by the cover, but he really owns that consummate slimeball look, and you wouldn't trust the fucker with a proverbial anything.

good riddance to bad rubbish, the shadow minister for BAE systems

all he wanted to do was serve his constituents, build nukes and harass women

same

if there's no place for that in today's Labour party...*shakes head sadly*

he even shoe-horned an antisemitism bit into his resignation letter, it was like he'd filled out a form

"That Mr Corbyn could carry out this witch hunt against me, a proud Jewish man is ... oh, hold on..."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/raheem-lbc-booted?utm_term=.mbzMZYg7n#.ubkP2GRBa

It's incredible that Bannon somehow managed to make Farage look like the voice of reason here.