the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

People who thought labour could or would win a majority were more likely to vote Labour.

I mean this is a statistically observable phenomenon in a lot of elections, where people are more likely to vote for the people they think are most likely to win. this hasn’t let a whole bunch of clod-headed centrist pundits try push the line that it’ll be different next time out as people see corbyn almost grasp power and will turn away from him at that point.... well, no... I mean, it likely will be different, in that this will likely multiply his vote not collapse it

it’s up there with the worst of their received punditocracy wisdom alongside “neck in neck in the polls with the worst govt in recent memory... chuka/yvette/ANYother would be twenty points ahead by now”. there’s been little (no?) good analysis done on exactly why the polls stay stubborn at 40 points a piece.

my hunch (starting to be confirmed by the recent poll showing a slide in the CON vote) is that a core 8-10 points of their lead is an entrenched UKIP which will start leaking as the brexit may drives through softens

any reform of the electoral system in isolation is going go be unsatisfactory

No, I completely agree. For example

Don’t know you could argue for Remain in that instance if the two Leave votes > the Remain vote.

except that this is the way a three-way system would work - if there are more people that would like to stay or would ideally like a soft Brexit, but would prefer staying to Chirpy Singapore, then that's what we'll get. And it's based on allowing people to answer more than one question at once, to get past the idea that offering anything more nuanced than "This one now, how long will I have to wait, I brought a thermos?" is indistinguishable from selling yourself down the river of "well, you expressed this choice..".

And the reason that reform won't by itself resolve the situation that you will still have to dice, boil or skewer the majority of the populace to stop their "But - I wanted the other one" shite.

i have noticed that when i drive my brexit through, any softening leads to leaks in the runup. particularly when it's REALLY entrenched

They might be further ahead with a leader with less baggage than Corbyn but definitely not from that wing of the party. Those voters would either be Tory Remainers or LibDems and I'm not sure any of them would be able to switch in sufficient numbers.

I suspect there are literally millions of people out there who are only voting Tory because of Brexit and that once it happens the party is likely to crumble into dust with the chalice in their hands.

FWIW I'm pretty sure I now believe the referendum should be rerun, in a large part because the idea that you can overspend by more than half a million and still basically get away will be disastrous for our democracy and can't be allowed to take hold. Fines certainly won't work.

keep the result but jail the fuckers

I mean definitely not with a leader from the Chuka / Yvette wing, to clarify.

there’s been little (no?) good analysis done on exactly why the polls stay stubborn at 40 points a piece.

Stephen Bush had a piece on this recently where he concluded that the mythical 20 points to be picked up couldn’t exist.

Meanwhile:

Reports that Tory rebels are being threatened with a general election if they defeat the government of a new clause 18

— PARLY (@ParlyApp) July 17, 2018

None of these fuckers are going to jail BTW.

I'm not entirely sure that I understand the Stephen Bush line that Matt quoted earlier - is it to say that asking "food shortages y/n" is irresponsible because what if the voters say 'y'?

Xp no I know I was just thinking outside the box

Or at least no one that matters is going to jail, and future poll fiddlers might conclude that the imprisonment of a few dumb fucks stupid enough to leave a paper trail is a price worth paying to get what they want.

Yeah but this government is so far short of the power or authority to demand a rerun that you might as well fantasize

It's becoming very apparent that they are far short of the power or authority required to pursue any of the available options.

I can no longer work out if headlines like 'May suffers surprise Brexit Commons defeat' are good or bad.

in case you're wondering which FIVE Labour MPs voted with the government - preventing an epic crisis in May's leadership - they are: Field, Hoey, Hopkins, Mann and Stringer

— Jim Pickard (@PickardJE) July 17, 2018

Poll on which one you like most.

I can't believe I haven't heard Hoey's dulcet tones reading any of my fave Audible books!

https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1348594963i/820338._UY400_SS400_.jpg

Just how low will your govt stoop @theresa_may? When @andrealeadsom delayed proxy voting motions, she *assured* those of us who were pregnant that we would be paired when necessary. Today your govt broke that agreement - @BrandonLewis paired with me but voted. Desperate stuff. pic.twitter.com/CcgF7z8MOV

— Jo Swinson (@joswinson) July 17, 2018

I love inter-factional tory infighting

I love it when Tories attempt feigned shock at, that ..gasp one of their peers turns out to be an amoral and untrustworthy shitbag!

Wasn't Thatcher brought to power on the back of a no confidence vote that passed due to pairing shenanigans? My memory is so bad these days.

according to wiki your memory is quite right and I have vague memories of watching "A Parliamentary Coup" before. Although it was one crucial vote lost to a dying labour backbencher Sir Alfred Broughton, who Callaghan wasn't ruthless enough to wheel in to the vote on a death-bed. And then some pairing shenanigans between a Labour whip getting played by a Tory occurred.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dFXEPUb2-E

As ever the Tories acted like unscrupulous cunts.

Acted

John Woodcock leaves the Labour Party and attacks JC.

As far as I can recall he is a horrible person.

I hope Labour defeat him at the next election.

Majority of 209, well played Mr. Woodcock. Anyway, he may as well get his mug in the papers today because you'll never hear from him again - unless he goes down the reality TV route.

Labour might not be able to finish the investigation into the accusations of sexual harassment against him, but I’m guessing they were about to find against him.

Pope/Catholic etc.

politics aside this does raise issues about the way the Labour party is conducting its HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA GET TAE FUCK

I mean, the whole sub idea does seem like something Musk just pulled out of his arse

I don't judge a book by the cover, but he really owns that consummate slimeball look, and you wouldn't trust the fucker with a proverbial anything.

good riddance to bad rubbish, the shadow minister for BAE systems

all he wanted to do was serve his constituents, build nukes and harass women

same

if there's no place for that in today's Labour party...*shakes head sadly*

he even shoe-horned an antisemitism bit into his resignation letter, it was like he'd filled out a form

"That Mr Corbyn could carry out this witch hunt against me, a proud Jewish man is ... oh, hold on..."

https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/raheem-lbc-booted?utm_term=.mbzMZYg7n#.ubkP2GRBa

It's incredible that Bannon somehow managed to make Farage look like the voice of reason here.

radio raheem refuses to do the right thing, is ejected

Woodcock quits Labour just as many people are calling for other people, like Hoey, to be subject to reselection processes.

JC has been very patient with a lot of these people. I am glad when they simply leave.

It is noticeable that many people who vitriolically attack JC turn out to be criminal or corrupt in some way.

"He was just marching around, still huffing and angry about how the Steve Bannon interview had gone,"

Oh please. Any oxygen for Bannon is his win our loss and they know this just as much at ITV. Just a relief that Question Time series finished the week before last.

I'm kinda intrigued by this:

FARAGE: Everybody hates Tommy Robinson apart from…

Who?

all right-thinking englishmen obv

And Morrissey

alt right-thinking englishmen

in the video clip of the radio part of the interview farage looks somewhat concerned as to what bannon was about to say and was desperately trying to calm the situation down.
he actually looked nervous.
so glad theo released what happened afterwards off mic.

More fool me for not realizing what a risible moron Bannon is.