Bill James Bio?

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This Kavanaugh story today should be a good example of why James is wrong--it should disqualify him under the present circumstances.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/brett-kavanaugh-watergate-decision-might-be-wrong/

Of course, it won't matter.

clemenza, Sunday, 22 July 2018 23:45 (five years ago) link

Sounds like someone is having problems with the IRS.

Van Horn Street, Monday, 23 July 2018 03:37 (five years ago) link

"Most people--99% of Americans, I would say--feel that we need to find some way to 'come together' as Americans. I don't see it happening, really, and I believe that we are better off admitting that we are no longer one country and dividing peacefully into three or four separate nations; you guys take care of your problems, and we'll take care of ours. But we're not at the point yet of admitting that our marriage has failed and it is time to move on to divorce."

And then you guys can have four presidents, and we can have four simultaneous political threads on ILX.

clemenza, Friday, 3 August 2018 21:35 (five years ago) link

dividing peacefully into three or four separate nations

i'm sure he has a totally common-sense plan for doing this

mookieproof, Friday, 3 August 2018 22:00 (five years ago) link

He's a writer; writers do take artistic license. I'm guessing he didn't feel the need to devise a carefully worked-out plan before posting that.

You really do hate him (non-baseball-wise), don't you?

clemenza, Friday, 3 August 2018 22:03 (five years ago) link

haha not really. i suspect (for no good reason, i guess) that he means well? he just seems to have little sense for politics or history that doesn't involve him projecting his own rather idiosyncratic ideas on everyone else

anyway, fess up -- you absolutely post this stuff to goad me

mookieproof, Saturday, 4 August 2018 00:14 (five years ago) link

No, not at all, unless there's something subconscious going on there (have you been polite to me over the years? if you have, make that an unqualified "no"). I tend to post things where his idiosyncrasy leads him to some core idea that I agree with, or at least find interesting. Here, it's that that chasm is unbridgeable; I do believe that. Obviously the country's not splitting up any time soon, and I'm sure he's aware of that.

The biggest problem I've had with James lately--I've mentioned it before, and a reader called him out on it the other day--is this blatant disconnect between how aggressively rude he can be to the occasional "Ask Bill" questioner, and how quick he is to complain when he perceives rudeness towards him. But if you were to point this out to him, and try to explain yourself, he'd edit your comments down to a sentence and call you a jackass.

clemenza, Saturday, 4 August 2018 04:39 (five years ago) link

one month passes...

A recent example of the above--my single biggest issue with James:

Bill, earlier in the year you seemed to have doubt that Shohei Ohtani could be successful both pitching and hitting in the majors. Now that he has almost 300 plate appearances and over 50 innings pitched has your opinion changed on him? Do you think it would be better for him to get Tommy John surgery and both pitch and hit in 2020 or should he just hit in 2019?
Asked by: Steve9753

Answered: 9/9/2018
I thought events had clearly validated my doubts. Are you not following the news?

I'm assuming James means one of two things (because clearly Ohtani has been successful as both a pitcher and a hitter): that instead of having a very good full-time hitter or full-time pitcher, the Angels have settled for half of both; or, more likely, the injury never happens if he's a position player only.

So all he has to do is say that, instead of responding in a way that suggests the questioner is stupid. And, as I said above, he's forever complaining about perceived rudeness towards him.

clemenza, Saturday, 22 September 2018 15:54 (five years ago) link

three weeks pass...

Bill James getting owned by his daughter is one of the best things I’ve ever seen on this site pic.twitter.com/rSv1Q7u4UO

— 🎃 Spooky Betts 🎃 (@michaelarria) October 13, 2018

mookieproof, Tuesday, 16 October 2018 21:22 (five years ago) link

Fess up -- you absolutely post this stuff to goad me.

clemenza, Tuesday, 16 October 2018 23:24 (five years ago) link

haha, maybe. i don't think you're too invested in his non-baseball opinions, though (or at least i hope)

mookieproof, Tuesday, 16 October 2018 23:35 (five years ago) link

his current baseball opinions are kinda shit as well

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 17 October 2018 00:59 (five years ago) link

three weeks pass...

The #RedSox Statement Regarding Bill James’ Recent Remarks: pic.twitter.com/JffB08Hqad

— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) November 8, 2018

mookieproof, Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:22 (five years ago) link

Billy Beane: "no comment"

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:25 (five years ago) link

Bill musta loved that spring training lockout with the replacements

(maybe he was just garbling his admiration for the Stinson brothers)

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:41 (five years ago) link

BJ needs to stfu before his rep sinks to Goose Gossage level

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:42 (five years ago) link

this guy

I think the idea that vote fraud is negligible is stupid, and the party hurts themselves when they say that. 10-20% of people cheat like crazy in fantasy leagues. It's not credible to suggest that a comparable percentage would not cheat in something that people care so much about

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) November 7, 2018

by the light of the burning Citroën, Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:47 (five years ago) link

there's at least one important difference between cheating in fantasy leagues and committing voter fraud, gee, what could it be

james is slowly morphing into scott adams

Karl Malone, Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:55 (five years ago) link

lol, follow the rest of this thread

Cheating at fantasy football is not a felony and the sad part is many Americans care more about fantasy football than politics.

— Scott Harris (@rockthechalk) November 7, 2018

stfu bill james

Karl Malone, Thursday, 8 November 2018 18:58 (five years ago) link

important poll

Is there any such thing as a major league baseball player who is underpaid?

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) November 8, 2018

Karl Malone, Thursday, 8 November 2018 19:00 (five years ago) link

brian kenny out here being all 'bill james is a genius who is thinking on a level you don't understand' about a guy who casually interpolates cheating at fantasy football into voter fraud with no evidence

mookieproof, Thursday, 8 November 2018 19:05 (five years ago) link

he's about 5 or 6 public fartstorms away from getting fired for being a dumbass, at which point he'll portray himself as a victim of the dum-dums and complete his transformation pro blowhard

Karl Malone, Thursday, 8 November 2018 19:12 (five years ago) link

I think I've removed bookmark from this thread at least a dozen times... why do I keep coming back?

Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 8 November 2018 19:17 (five years ago) link

ILB’s favourite baseball writer has had a busy day. (Check that--my favorite, ILB’s least favourite.)

I have to read up on the fantasy league/election part of this. I expect the worst.

The idea that all MLB players are replaceable is obviously crazy. Max Scherzer and Jose Altuve and all the way down to the bottom 10 or whatever % of players are not replaceable. Back in the Abstract days, he used to say that MLB treated talent like it was a precious, finite resource, and that some of the time they had players at the Triple-A level who were just as good or better than the Joe Biaginis of the league; I think that was basically the beginning of the replacement-level concept, and that seems defensible. If he’s saying all players are replaceable, then again, crazy.

You can look at the question of players being overpaid in three ways. One, in relation to how much revenue a player generates--the idea of putting a value on every WAR and comparing that to what those wins mean in terms of attendance, merchandising, etc. In that sense, there are overpaid players and underpaid players and players who get just about the right amount.

Or you can start with how hard it is to make it to the majors, the idea that you’re one of the best 1200-1500 baseball players in the country. There are exponentially more doctors and lawyers than baseball players; if you win the lottery, you ought to cash in.

In a general sense, though--how a workaday person views professional athletes--sure, they’re all overpaid, with the exception of journeyman who shuttle back and forth to the minors. I don’t see that as an especially provocative statement. Troy Tulowitzki makes more money in one month than I’ll make in my lifetime. So I don’t have a big problem with that idea.

The biggest problem with James right now is how arrogant he’s become. He was ornery and stubborn when he wrote the Abstracts, but 1) that’s not as annoying when you’re a voice in the wilderness rather than (more or less) a well-paid, establishment guy, and 2) his arrogance has grown a hundred fold since then. And he always excuses this the same way: I was right about how important walks were, and I was right about how overrated stealing and bunting were, and I was right about Bobby Grich and Darrell Evans and the Pythagorean Theorem and just about everything else I proposed 40 years ago, so I’m also right about everything I say now. Very few people realized that then, and very few people realize that now--eventually, everybody will. On top of that, the team that employs him has won four World Series since he signed on--I don’t think that puts much of a rein on this tendency.

I’m actually a little surprised the Red Sox kept him on past his first flirtations with Trump (which mostly amounts with him treating Trump as a legitimate office holder--he insists he didn’t vote for him, and regularly calls him ridiculous; when he says more than that, and readers question him, he gets his back up and sometimes starts digging himself a deeper hole).

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 00:16 (five years ago) link

He's tweeting a lot today; people get in trouble, they tweet. There's a trace of humility too. I don't want him to start censoring himself (and I don't think he will), but if he reins in some of the rudeness he's sometimes prone to on "Hey Bill," I won't mind at all.

(When Scott Woods started the "Ask Greil" section of his Marcus website, I thought Marcus would be a cinch to be ten times ruder and more impatient than James. Much to my surprise, he's been the complete opposite--even with the occasional rude questioner, he's been gracious.)

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:21 (five years ago) link

would you say that bill james could be easily replaced?

Karl Malone, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:27 (five years ago) link

major league baseball players are obviously overpaid on a societal scale . . . but it's a $10B/year business. paying the players less means the owners keep more, and for doing what, exactly? now there's a group that's replaceable.

this whole thing arose (i think) from scott boras' comments yesterday about teams tanking/not spending. boras is biased, of course, but i don't think he's wrong.

i don't have the evidence to back this up, but it seems that a team's profit is ever more divorced from its on-field success. there's tv money, profit sharing, parking, free ballparks, whatever. half the teams in any given year aren't even really trying to compete but rather hoping the rewards of shittiness can propel them into an astros situation.

analytics is making this worse! before long, fangraphs is going to tell us that the yankees and red sox are gonna win 95+ games next year, and that the blue jays will win 80 even *with* vlad jr. and everyone will be all like well, might as well keep him in the minors for an extra season of control!

that is a financial incentive to *not* put your best, most entertaining team on the field. imo that, more than infield shifts or long games or pitching changes, is Bad for Baseball. there is no outside force with the authority to make the (anti-trust immune!) teams adhere to a common good; before long we'll have 20 marlins each season and they'll have to expand the playoff field even more just to keep people interested.

anyway, bill james is weird and maybe twitter is . . . an even poorer medium for him than it is for everyone else

mookieproof, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:29 (five years ago) link

Not at all. Not in the good sense (all the brilliant things he wrote in the Abstracts that shape the way I think), and not in the bad sense, either (his more recent misadventures...he is different).

Another thing I've said before: just my opinion, but I think some of his current orneriness stems from never coming to terms with the acceptance of WAR over Win Shares as the common starting point of sabermetrics today. The old thing about the student parting ways with the teacher.

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:33 (five years ago) link

("Not at all" was in response to your previous post, not the one above.)

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:36 (five years ago) link

Two different posters...I should slow down and read more carefully.

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 01:37 (five years ago) link

I can definitely believe that he still holds grudges over the failure of Win Shares -- he was convinced that it would revolutionize statistical research and it didn't.

NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 9 November 2018 06:18 (five years ago) link

I bought the big Win Shares book online a few years after it came out. Didn't get very far into it. The explanation of the methodology was pretty heavy going, but the bigger problem was that my copy, which was supposed to be "very good," had pages ready to fall out.

clemenza, Friday, 9 November 2018 12:33 (five years ago) link

Jay Jaffe:

I think one also has to remember that James has been in baseball management for a decade and a half. He’s certainly starting to sound like somebody ready to go to war with the MLBPA, and I think Tony Clark (whose overall job performance is still pretty lousy) was right to issue his rebuke.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 9 November 2018 12:40 (five years ago) link

He was stepping lightly for a day, anyway. He has a Twitter poll up today:

Most Worthy of the Presidential Medal of Freedom

Babe Ruth
Elvis Presley
Orin Hatch
Antonin Scalia

"Maybe twitter is...an even poorer medium for him than it is for everyone else."

clemenza, Sunday, 11 November 2018 02:31 (five years ago) link

Bill James is still probably my fave baseball writer by peak value. Like my fave rapper, KRS-One, he passed his prime at least 25 years ago, now says dumb stuff, and i have no reason to believe i'd find the current work of either compelling.

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 11 November 2018 03:55 (five years ago) link

bill james is a HOF lock by JAWS but needs to retire so he can gain eligibility

Karl Malone, Sunday, 11 November 2018 03:57 (five years ago) link

bill james is pete rose if he kept going until 1989

Karl Malone, Sunday, 11 November 2018 03:58 (five years ago) link

bill james productions, statistical minded

mookieproof, Sunday, 11 November 2018 04:02 (five years ago) link

one month passes...

The Modern Game committee voted Harold Baines and Lee Smith into the HOF this weekend. Is it possible the Russians hacked THIS election, too?
Asked by: ajmilner

Answered: 12/11/2018
The Russians were exhausted from getting Vladimir elected last year.

Not bad...

clemenza, Wednesday, 12 December 2018 00:47 (five years ago) link

Referring to statements earlier today suggesting Football analysis is limited. . .Cris Collinsworth just said that "Hurries" in football predict sacks better than sacks do. Somebody's doing some pretty good analysis.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) December 17, 2018

bill james being a cris collinsworth fan says a lot

k3vin k., Monday, 17 December 2018 04:25 (five years ago) link

one month passes...

"Somehow we have developed this large contingent of know-it-all baseball fans who bay like wounded coyotes at any mention of wins, losses, RBI or batting average. I never know whether I should blame myself for this or not."

clemenza, Sunday, 27 January 2019 00:44 (five years ago) link

i only bay like a wounded coyote with wins and losses. i zone out at a mention of RBI, and batting average is fine

Karl Malone, Sunday, 27 January 2019 00:47 (five years ago) link

but yes he should actually blame himself for that, at least partly

Karl Malone, Sunday, 27 January 2019 00:47 (five years ago) link

I waddle like a penguin whenever Ron Cey is mentioned.

clemenza, Sunday, 27 January 2019 00:48 (five years ago) link

or Burgess Meredith

a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, 27 January 2019 05:31 (five years ago) link

one month passes...

This made me laugh.

James has been going over all the Cy Young winners and comparing the results to the B-Ref winner (by WAR), the Fangraphs winner, and his own winner by something called D-WAR (I think that's his winner--I can't locate the original explanation). Anyway, looking at the 2013 AL winner, he wrote this the other day: "Hisashi Iwakuma, really? Where is that one coming from? Can you find anyone who agrees with you about this?" ("You" meaning one of the other systems that arrived at Iwakuma.)

In the comments, a reader responded: "Well, win shares:

Iwakuma, 20.5
Scherzer, 19.9

Sort of the advanced metric of record on this site."

clemenza, Saturday, 2 March 2019 20:19 (five years ago) link

two months pass...

Haven't listened, but an hour-long interview with James from a year-and-a-half ago.

http://www.econtalk.org/bill-james-on-baseball-facts-and-the-rules-of-the-game/

clemenza, Saturday, 1 June 2019 21:06 (four years ago) link

two months pass...

Does anyone besides me pay the $3/month for his site? It's his, so he gets to do what he wants, but he's spent the last three or four or thirty-nine months doing these political polls, and he's now ending them because he's decided people are flooding the results for certain candidates. They seemed like a waste of time right from the start. Meanwhile, his HOF polls continue, and some of those are interesting--the groupings are competitive maybe, I don't know, a quarter of the time--but way too many are like this one: Steve Garvey, Orel Hershiser, Clayton Kershaw, Maury Wills. Do you really need to poll that?

I wish he'd just go back to answering reader questions and posting the occasional baseball piece.

clemenza, Saturday, 24 August 2019 04:27 (four years ago) link

maury wills 100%, he's up there with harold baines

Karl Malone, Saturday, 24 August 2019 05:13 (four years ago) link


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