hall of fame, next vote...

that promo is 100x better than any modern promo i've seen

The hat-jersey mismatch on the scripted part is a nice touch.

I'd have to check back, but I think James regularly cited Lemon as being in the running for most underrated player in the game in the old Abstracts.

(Not hard to see why, in the context of player evaluation back then. He had the Amos Otis problem in getting noticed: he'd often hit 16-19 HR, not 20; score and/or knock in 70 or 80 runs, not 100; hit .270 or .280, not .300.)

Four-time AL HBP champion!

Joe Posnanski's 2019 round-up:

http://www.mlb.com/news/2019-hall-of-fame-ballot/c-288030220

Longshot, but on the periphery: Jon Lester.

Next year will be his age-35 season. He's 177-98, 3.50, 44.6 WAR. No Cy Youngs, but four times in the Top 4. Good postseason record for his career in just under 150 innings. He'd probably need a great postseason this year and four or five more productive years--225 wins, 60 WAR--to have a chance.

Probably no more than a 5% chance. But he is still pitching well, and past the obvious people--Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer, Sale, maybe Kluber--he and Hamels seem like the next best bets. He's in better shape than Felix right now. Sabathia, I'm not sure--he'd have to get in Morris-style at this point.

Sabathia is 51st in career pitching bWAR (62.2). Morris is 137th.

True, but I think if he were to go in, people voting for him won't try to make a sabermetric case, they'll be touting his durability and bulk numbers, especially his 250+ wins. If there are any voters like that left when he retires, that is.

Sabathia's chances are way better than Lester's right now. Besides the round numbers that the voters like (he'll reach 250 wins and 3000 K's next year), he pitched better for more years, and was far more dominant in his prime (and won a Cy Young).

Lester might have more at stake, HOF-wise, in the playoffs than any other pitcher. If he pitches well and the Cubs win or even reach the World Series, it'll go a long way towards cementing him as a "winner", Morris-style. He already has the reputation as a big game pitcher.

In terms of peak years, there's not a striking difference between Sabathia and Morris. C.C.'s three best years were 6.4, 6.3, 6.2; Morris's were 5.9., 5.2, 5.2. Neither guy had anything close to one of those flashy, '78 Guidry-type seasons.

(C.C.) was far more dominant

Doesn't show up in WAR. C.C. - 6.4, 6.3, 6.2; Lester - 6.2, 6.2, 5.6.

don't have the JAWS numbers, but i think CC > Morris

He is:

C.C., 71st; Lester, 152nd; Morris, 163rd. Mostly because of C.C.'s career advantage; for their seven best seasons, it's C.C. 39.4, Lester 35.0, Morris 32.7. Which is a different way of saying that, if C.C. gets in, it'll be because of durability, not because he was ever particularly dominant. In a way, he's a different kind of compiler--he compiles WAR, 2-3 WAR per season for much of his career.

Sorry, looking at the wrong column--make that 3-4 WAR per season.

You missed CC's best year according to bWAR -- split between Cleveland and Milwaukee in 2008, 6.8 total WAR.

But you're right that according to JAWS, there isn't a huge different between Lester and Sabathia's seven year peaks. However, Lester's seven best seasons are more spread out, whereas Sabathia had that great run of five straight years in the top five of Cy Young voting, which is what triggered my previous post.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_P.shtml

Good catch--missed that. (Baseball Reference gives a Total line for split-seasons in their main career box, but not in the Player Value box.) That does tip the scales more in C.C.'s direction: 6.8, 6.4, 6.3 is better. Myself, I think of peak value more in terms of 3-4 seasons--especially when grouped close together, agree with you on that--than 7.

Lester would probably need to get some of those counting totals way up and that WAR would have to clear 65 or 70. i don't really see it, tbh, he seems less likely than Sabathia, who doesn't seem exceptionally likely either. They feel more like the current model of the Koosman/Pettitte/Wells/Tanana/Ruess-type lefty, which is to say extremely good but a step or two below HOF-level according to what has been deemed HOF-level. No shame in that, those were some great pitchers.

Agree. I put him at 5% above. If you identified the 20 pitchers who a) had the closest career records to Lester at age 34, and b) were coming off a good season, my guess would be that one of them continued to pitch well for a few more years and went into the HOF. I posted in the first place because I think he does fly under the radar. The HOF isn't completely out of the question yet, and that's something right there.

James yesterday: "I ran a poll asking readers whether Greinke or Jon Lester was closer to the Hall of Fame. Greinke won 56-44; almost 4,000 votes."

Their most basic old-school stats (W-L/ERA) aren't drastically different, but Greinke's close to 20 WAR ahead, and my sense is that he's in much, much better shape.

Greinke had two outstanding seasons that account for about 1/3rd of his total WAR, and a bunch of really good ones. For me he's something of a compiler, but he does seem to have a lot more left in the tank than Lester.

Peak Felix was probably better than all the "periphery" guys that have been mentioned, but he might end up as the Andruw Jones of pitchers. I really hope he can turn it around somehow, it's sad to see someone that great collapse like that.

Greinke is another season away from passing 70 for his career, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get to Messina territory there (and he seems like a decent comparable to Mussina albeit with a more dominant peak and less consistent baseline.)

With his career earning he could get to Messina right now if he wanted

He's at 61.5 on Baseball Reference, so he's two years (at least) away from hitting 70 (barring a rather miraculous reversion to 2009/15 form).

and 56.7 on fangraphs, or 4 seasons away from hitting 70 fWAR if he maintained his 2018 rate of production

i was looking at his bWAR line right below his photo, which is 65.7 (i suppose accounting for hitting and defense??)

still he seems like a good bet for the HOF in a lot of ways, his peak years were very peak.

Greinke has the Cy Young and most probably he hits 3000 strikeouts. Those are arguments some dinosaurs at the BBWA still care about and didn't see in Mussina.

Same for Sabathia + the ring, dude is going to retire as the left hander with the most strikeout in AL history. Also, Fangraphs loves him much more than baseball-reference, I have the feeling xfip tends to embellish heavy workloads.

Joe Posnanski, who's resumed his Top 100 countdown--with a heavy emphasis on peak--just listed Johan Santana at #95 the other day.

Johan was probably the Saberhagen of his era, an all-time great HOF talent derailed by injuries.

one of those guys who was better than a lot of guys already in the Hall or who will wind up there but didn't stick around long enough. At least both of them stuck around and peaked longer than Lincecum.

Santana was #97, not #95.

From 1960 through 1966, Sandy Koufax made 237 starts. These years make up more or less his entire regular-season Hall of Fame case.

From 2003 through 2010, Johan Santana made 240 starts. These years make up more or less his entire regular-season Hall of Fame case.

I can tell you the numbers. I can tell you that Koufax pitched 137 more innings in his starts, because starters went longer in those days. That also explains why Koufax had 37 shutouts to Santana's eight.

But other than that, it's hard to see much difference, especially once you account for how different their eras were.

Sandy Koufax (1960-66): 137-60, 2.36 ERA, 147 ERA+, 1910 Ks, 512 walks, 3.73 K-W, 48.0 WAR, 3 Cy Youngs, 1 MVP, led league in pitcher WAR twice.

Johan Santana (2003-2010): 122-60, 2.89 ERA, 150 ERA+, 1,648 Ks, 409 walks, 4.03 K-W, 47.8 WAR, 2 Cy Youngs, led league in pitcher WAR three times.

I don't quote this to knock down Koufax--he's probably my favorite player among those I never saw. Just impressive.

I've done this three times on my site the past 20 years, run down HOF prospects for active players. If you have no use for what I post here, skip it, it's more of the same.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/

Nice piece clem, I agree with most of it (incl. Stevie Nicks).

I think Mauer and Molina are locks though. I've written about this on other threads, but I think WAR underestimates the value of catchers.

You missed an opportunity to take a stronger stance on the Bryant/Arenado type of players -- guys in that 20-30 WAR range with a few superstar seasons behind them. The Greinke/CC types are fun to debate, but won't earn you many bragging points. Yeah, they get in with 3-4 more good years, but if they flame out, nobody can say they were bad picks. Predicting where Arenado goes from here is a lot trickier -- he could be a rich man's Mike Lowell but could also become Adrian Beltre 2.0.

Thanks, NT. You've clued me into a major omission: Machado. (I scanned the standings for candidates, and I guess I overlooked him because of the trade.)

I'm not really advocating in the piece--just trying to assess everybody's chances. I find Arenado tough to handicap because of the park factor. If he were playing elsewhere, he'd be a good-bet easy at this point in his career, with a better slash line than Machado, about the same WAR, and two years older. But you can't ignore his park. We've debated him lots on here...I think you'll have a better idea after Helton goes on the ballot this year, mitigated somewhat by his extra obstacle of having those monster years at the height of the PED era.

nice job clem. I was pleasantly surprised to see you were so sanguine about votto's chances, but after a down year this year he'll have to return to form for a few seasons at least I think

Kluber got such a late start--he
didn’t have his first great season until he was 28--but wow, has he ever made up for lost time: two
Cy Youngs, a 3rd- and a 9th-place finish, and he’ll probably finish 3rd or 4th this year. (He is
developing something of a David Price/Clayton Kershaw-problem in the postseason.) I don’t know of
any historical precedent for a non-knuckleball pitcher getting such a late start, so we’ll have
to see how long he can remain dominant; there’s not a big margin of error for him.

curt schilling comes to mind

david price I think has no shot -- he's broken 5 rWAR once and the postseason stuff is going to kill him with voters (as it maybe should)

about the same WAR, and two years older. But you can't ignore his park.

Christ alfuckingmighty

Nobody who had their prime years with the Rockies has been elected though! We really don't know what it's going to take. That said, Arenado plays in a weaker offensive era, with the humidor, and is a plus plus defender at a premium position. There's really no good comparison with any past Rockies superstar.

the Rockies thing is tough because there were certainly a lot of not-great dudes who put up huge numbers, but i think each case is different. Helton was basically a mile-high Mattingly, to an extent. Probably a HOFer if he had a longer peak but i don't know that his admittedly ridiculous numbers during that peak make him a HOFer any more than Don. But he was genuinely great.

Bichette was a horrible defender and didn't walk much and was basically just a guy who could hit the ball hard, which allowed him to put up huge numbers in Denver. I'm still amazed his career WAR was only what Mike Trout put up well before the all star break this season.

I recalled that Galarraga was a good defender but a quick look tells me he was also lousy, didn't walk much, but he was an outstanding hitter. His success in Atlanta and Texas after leaving Colorado indicates he had the skills to hit anywhere. His best WAR seasons were in Montreal and Atlanta, despite those eye-popping seasons with the Rockies in the '90s.

Castilla was actually a pretty decent defender and had some real power, but when he left Denver he did just turn from a 40 HR guy to a 20 HR guy. When he returned to the Rockies after stints in Houston and Atlanta and TB he immediately had a season w/35 HR and led the league w/131 RBI.

Ellis Burks was really good before he went to Colorado and really good after. And that one epic season he had in '96 was across-the-board excellent. He was regular Ellis on the road, which means very good and not below average. At home he just happened to turn into Ted Williams.

then there were all those other guys like Garrett Atkins (whom i completely forgot existed until just now), Preston Wilson, Jeffrey Hammonds, etc guys who had these seasons that anywhere else would be actually impressive but just didn't make anyone notice them (rightly or wrongly.)

Tulo and Holliday were excellent in their prime, I think the latter in particular probably gained a lot of career rep for his fine run in St. Louis.

Walker was definitely the best Rockies player in franchise history and a clear HOFer imo, with Helton a solid second place. There's a reason the top ten adjusted OPS in franchise history has only three players on it: Walker (5 times), Helton (4), and Tulo (1).

But all of those guys above, I think they were all good *hitters* (even Bichette had some solid stats just in terms of swinging the bat as a part-timer in Cincy and Boston at the end of his career.)

Anyway, this has been rambling and long-winded but I suspect Arenado is an interesting case going forward because he's clearly good, and he's only 27. But I do think people might look at the road stats he's put up and wonder: (.263/.318/.469/.787) I don't think that's right in his case, but it'll happen.

Excellent post, thanks--thoughtful explanations are always more interesting to me than corny internet one-line dismissals.

Arenado seems to be on his way to being a generational fielder, in which case his home/road splits probably won't matter as much: Brooks Robinson glove plus a solid, park-assisted offensive line will be enough. Again, I think Helton's support will be relevant. Jim Edmonds didn't get past the first ballot with his highlight-reel defense and solid, era-assisted offensive line (bad timing, mind you, with an overly crowded ballot).

Hadn't thought about Schilling as a possible blueprint for where Kluber could go--Schilling had really had only the one excellent season (1992) before he was 29. Good comp.

Dave Stewart is a starter that did not get good until his 30s. Was mostly a reliever earlier in his career. Pretty nuts that the pitched over a 1000 innings from 1987 to 90.

With regards to the late start, definitely--his breakthrough season didn't happen till he was 30. I'm sure you'd agree that he doesn't fit with Kluber/Schilling in terms of how dominant he was, though--I think of him more as a good-not-great pitcher who was in the right place at the right time (albeit a better pitcher than Bob Welch in 1990; both were far behind Clemens). Probably one of the last guys with that kind of inning count, no?

Stewart had those four consecutive 20-win seasons and the last of them was the best: lowest ERA, 11 CG, 4 shutouts, and then he fell apart (he did start for a Blue Jays world series champ but he doesn't appear to have been the reason they went all the way, to be kind about it.)

Those innings caught up with him, or maybe it was age. Either way, you wonder what he could have done if he'd been given a more extended shot as a starter a lot earlier, as opposed to the single season in which he was primarily in the rotation. He was a bit of a minor legend though, clearly the best of the A's starters during the Bash Brothers era (though Moore and Welch had their moments.)

Randy Johnson is a possibly decent comp for Kluber, though Johnson got an even later start as a HOF-level talent. Though he did have several seasons of weird dominance prior to that, in which he'd strike out a lot of dudes, have an ERA somewhere in the high 3s, and walk 150 guys in 200 innings. One reason I think Kluber has a somewhat decent shot is he's on an outstanding team, which means his win totals have been very good (18 wins three times, 20 wins once in the last five years), and if he pitches close to this level for 3-4 more seasons and then peters out in the natural decline way, he might clear 200 wins. That plus the two Cy Young awards could do it.

BUT we're talking about pitchers, and these guys can turn into a pumpkin overnight.

Dodgers had so many good arms in that era, it was probably pretty tough to get through. They cut bait on a bunch of good pitchers early that got better or healthy and productive.

Lasorda wrecked more than a couple HOF-level ace arms back then. it was good Pedro got out early.

there were a few current WAR leader dudes who will probably get a handful of votes tossed their way before they drop off the ballot: Kinsler, Granderson, Wright, Zobrist, McCutchen, Adrian Gonzalez, Tulo, Holliday. Beyond McCutchen, who actually won one, all of those guys had seasons where they could have justifiably finished in the top 5 in MVP balloting.

Kinsler has been overshadowed by other players his whole career, and his low profile probably also comes from playing in Texas, Detroit, and Anaheim, but he's been one of the better second basemen in baseball history. Outstanding defender, very good hitter.

Granderson started out kind of as a poor man's Sizemore and wound up being a lot better than that (and a lot better than Sizemore, in the long run.)

Wright was a HOFer at his peak, it's a shame those injuries derailed him.

Zobrist was shockingly great with Tampa Bay, and two of his three Cubs seasons have been very good, but he'll never make it in.

McCutchen seems to be beyond done as a star player, after his age 28 season he's been pretty average. Also, maybe it seems like he wasn't as good a defender as I thought he was?

Gonzalez was supposed to become a perennial 40+ homer guy once he escaped San Diego, but he just continued to be a very good hitter. I still can't believe he caught so much shit from Boston media during a season in which he hammered the hell out of the ball, but...it's Boston.

Tulo is the present-day version of Garciaparra, with the added unfair mile high caveats added in.

Holliday was never a particularly exciting hitter, just a really good one. Like I said upthread, he's one of a tiny fraction of guys who put up huge numbers in Colorado who went on to prove himself elsewhere over an extended period of time.

If I had to vote for a single one of those guys, it would be Kinsler, since he may still have something left in the tank and he's a Bobby Grich equivalent in a lot of ways.

Yeah I wonder how many good not great seasons McCutchen as in him, I can see him compiling enough 2/3 war seasons to be a Hall of Fame player over the next 5-6 years but maybe I'm just being optimistic (as always).

One guy whose HOF chances I like is Simmons. Narratives count for a lot in how journalists see a hall of famer and as we all know Simmons is putting ridiculous defensive numbers through his first 1000 games. Those numbers have already been confirmed by junk awards so it's not like he is some sort of secretly great defensive player, even the dinosaurs are aware of him. I know the current shortstop crop is ripe with potential hall of famers but if Simmons end up being the one with the best defensive stats and has hit enough to have an average bat I think he is in.