the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

McDonnell and Corbyn as I understand it have always been very close and I see that story of any kind of split as a Blair-Brown fantasy. The splits within Momentum due to last night's decision will mean that some of the cranks will leave (and given some of the tweets I read last night its for the best).

Ultimately this is -- while not silly season -- not a huge deal. I can't see a challenge because: 1) Brexit will keep everyone nice and 2) sad to say, not enough people care about racism to have the grown-up conversations in the first place. The issue will rumble on because of Israel/Palestine creating the odd uncomfortable week for Labour internally. No more than that.

I think we're probably only a few months away from a direct challenge to Corbyn from the left of the party. The fact that Momentum are now being openly critical of Corbyn's conduct (and rightly so) suggests a split on the horizon.

there are a lot of Corbyn supporters on twitter very angry about Momentum ditching Willsman, threatening to cancel their Momentum membership, accusing Lansman of being a traitor etc. Ifind it hard to get a sense of how representative they are of the wider Corbyn-project-supporting Labour membership, but I think they're probably more representative than the faction of left twitter that is supporting Momentum's position (there 4 digit follower count New Socialist and Vice magazine adjacent ppl who are more prominent than the cranks, but probably less representative?).

If there was a serious split between the ppl in Momentum who recognise that anti-semitism is a real issue and the Skwarkbox/Chris Williamson/George Galloway faction then I think there are more of the latter (or certainly more ppl who would go with that side if Corbyn himself signaled his support for them?) Maybe there's a potential majority made up of those anti-crank Corbynites and soft-left Labour members who are sceptical of the hard left, but willing to work with them against the cranks?

there are a lot of Corbyn supporters on twitter very angry about Momentum ditching Willsman, threatening to cancel their Momentum membership, accusing Lansman of being a traitor etc

Good, off they trot then.

ISWYDT

The fact that McDonnell and Corbyn are close means that McD is unlikely to criticise him in public and certainly won't challenge him, but I suspect he knows that this is a complete clusterfuck and is heavily influencing behind the scenes to try and get some kind of decisive action. Impossible to believe he's being all 'ah, Jeremy knows best' about it.

Yes, this could work out quite well for Momentum and Labour.

xxp = McD has been critical in terms of this whole row blowing out again. I think (as per the piece you posted) the issue is beyond Corbyn or McD, as in the cranks among the membership. And then there are many young leftists who are anti-imperialists and will criticise Israel and laugh off the 'existential threat' to UK jews as to what it is.

Ultimately I don't see any decisive action unless there's a name that attaches to that. And again, anti-semitism is an issue but its treated as this week's issue.

momentum have said their decision to withdraw support for willsman was due to his comments being 'insensitive', which is not the most robust criteria, and I can see how it looks like capitulation to bad faith right wing attack dogs. it's all optics and outrage and ppl seeing severing ties as a moral gesture

even the scummy Murdoch gutter press are referring to BBC cause celebre TR as a "a nasty thug and a grandstanding idiot". just saying.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/emilyashton/the-lib-dems-are-hoping-to-reclaim-the-centre-ground-of

This feels like a fairly desperate roll of the dice for the the LibDems but it might actually work?

Yes, this could work out quite well for Momentum and Labour.

idk I feel like there's a larger chance that this works out badly for Momentum and Labour, with the coalition that came together to support Corbyn fracturing into several different parts, none of which can hold on the party leadership? Also, I'm not convinced that Corbyn might not come down on the side of the Chris Williamson wing if there was a split? (I hope not obviously, but). The idea that the cranks and crank-tolerant are just a small minority that can be flushed out, and then the Corbyn project carries on full steam ahead - seems overly optimistic to me

I agree, they at least need a working definition of crank

If flushing out these idiots means Corbyn has to go, then he has to go, the ball's in his court.

I for one welcome new Lib Dem leader Tommy Robinson etcetc

Tom D otm

by 'crank-tolerant' I guess I mean ppl who nod along to Skwarkbox and the Canary and generally think that Ken Livingstone and George Galloway are good guys who have been unfairly demonized by the Corbyn-hating media?

I for one welcome new Lib Dem leader Boaty McShitface!

(xp) that's the very fellows.

Now is that Corbyn or isn't?

... it?

Chris Williamson sort of personifies that archetype of so-called Left twitter that soref is describing, they are a fucking embarrassment.

jesus most of the serious leftists that i know irl are some version of *those guys* ;_;

. ITV’s Robert Peston has written an interesting post on his Facebook page about Brexit. Picking up on the FT story (see 11.44am), he says Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is now backing a “blind Brexit”. Here’s an extract.

My understanding is that one of the Brexit campaign’s two big beasts, the environment secretary Michael Gove, has arrived at the perhaps startling view that the least worst option now is what some are styling “a blind Brexit”.

This would be to recognise that parliament is too divided and too much time has already been wasted for a detailed plan for our future relationship with the EU to be negotiated and agreed in time for the summits in October or December.

Instead the withdrawal agreement - which formalises a default plan to keep open the Northern Ireland border and around £40bn of divorce payments by the UK - would be ratified by EU leaders, together with the highest level guiding principles for the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

In other words, we would leave the EU not having a clue whether Brexit would ultimately involve membership of the single market like Norway, or the customs union like Turkey, or associate status like Ukraine or having a Canadian style free trade agreement.

To repeat, Brexit on 29 March 2019 would be blind.

exclusive interview with michael gove on his plans for 'blind brexit':

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhEs9KUQ4qo

i would be surprised if corbyn parks his bike behind a particular faction, his entire MO (on the far left back to the 80s, and as leader) has always been manoeuvring to create or nurture a space which allows the split (whichever split it happens to be) to be avoided rather than exacerbated -- and indeed to maintain links with as many factions as possible after the split if it comes

so i don't think he'll publicly take a side -- we'll see, i guess

xxp that seems to be basically what Stephen Bush was yesterday predicting as the most likely scenario for March 2019 in this piece?:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2018/08/can-government-avoid-crashing-out-european-union-without-deal

Ultimately the only way that the government can avoid a massive row over the final relationship with the European Union in this parliament, which cannot agree on the final relationship, is to simply avoid discussing the final relationship in any detail this side of the 2022 election by having a cursory bit of language in the Withdrawal Agreement of the “there will be a trade deal between the United Kingdom and the European Union” variety and for transition to roll over until such a time as one of the major political parties wins a big enough parliamentary majority to overcome its own internal divisions or the conditions of coalition partners to decisively resolve the matter of the UK-EU relationship.

Otherwise known as “sometime never”.

So that’s what we pay these fucksticks for to say that hey have no ducking idea and throw the future of millions on a dice roll.

Peter Wilby wrote something a few month back predicting that in 10 years time UK politics would still be dominated by people arguing about whether we had in fact left the EU or not, which seems horribly plausible

i would be surprised if corbyn parks his bike behind a particular faction, his entire MO (on the far left back to the 80s, and as leader) has always been manoeuvring to create or nurture a space which allows the split (whichever split it happens to be) to be avoided rather than exacerbated -- and indeed to maintain links with as many factions as possible after the split if it comes

so i don't think he'll publicly take a side -- we'll see, i guess

I think there's maybe a point where 'not taking a side' effectively becomes joining the crank-tolerant side though, if we're not there already

Now is that Corbyn or isn't?

― Father Ted in Forkhandles (Tom D.), Thursday, 2 August 2018 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Its not that simple in the sense that Corbyn has taken along this strand and then engaged a lot of younger people. So Corbyn must go isn't any kind of answer.

To the ppl that are saying go yes please and now - what is the replacement? Will it keep the things we like about Corbyn in the agenda and then reduce the old (effectively) Trot stuff. And no the answer isn't some sort of Caroline Lucas/Ocasio-Cortez being Labour leader dreck that yer LJs of this world are going on about.

What Corbyn has done -- and what mark s sorta hinted at in one of his posts above -- is to appear nice and affable but also staying under the radar in these periods of attack. All I've seen from Corbyn is a statement for one event. Note the young Novara crowd are going "Corbyn must say cranks are not going to be tolerated blah blah" and he he has rightly said nothing to that. Any left Labour leader will find themselves and this project under severe attack and it needs someone of just this kind of temperament to lead it - so whatever his faults..xps

This period of attack is going to be ceaseless though

"get the cranks out of politics" = "get the salt out of the sea"

xxp I don't think that soft-peddling the crank-condemnation has worked as a strategy though, otherwise we wouldn't be in the position we're in now? There are for sure a lot of ppl that will continue to attack Corbyn as beyond the pale no matter how much condemning he does, I think the ppl backing Willsman are correct to say it's naive to think that (e.g.) the Times op-ed pages are going to be "ah, fair play" and leave it there if Corbyn came out against him and similar cranks, but that's not the point, it's necessary for Corbyn to do anyway.

Also, concern about anti-semitism goes beyond the ppl who are incurable enemies of Corbyn and the left, I think there's a significant constituency that would support him/the left in some scenarios but could be permanently alienated if they don't get a grip on this stuff

This period of attack is going to be ceaseless though

this will be true whoever is leader

the corbyn wing does have to be thinking right now properly and clearly abt who comes next tho, even if they're not talking about it yet -- one of the weird failures of the blair makeover of the party was that it had *so* little forethought abt its successor cadres

I've been mildly amused by "this period of attack". Most people are off on holiday.

Imagine someone, somewhere is running a poll to see the effect on this on Labour's ratings. xps

Also, concern about anti-semitism goes beyond the ppl who are incurable enemies of Corbyn and the left, I think there's a significant constituency that would support him/the left in some scenarios but could be permanently alienated if they don't get a grip on this stuff

I seriously think you are overstating this in terms of electoral outcome. Labour lost some council seats in *checks notes* Barnet. Was that it?

Like I said a lot of this is due the fact that ppl don't care about racism - which is true because we turn away from Islamophobia all the time.

Well, I hope you're right

Not so much about the racism bit

" Most people are off on holiday."

lol. You must be joking! Although listening to BBC reportage on Labour Antisemitism on the DAB whilst out in the local greenbelt has always seemed better than Tolcarne beach to me!

A rabbi stood for the Tories in Kersal (in Salford), which has a large Jewish population, and won it from Labour in the May elections. There have been Jewish graves vandalised in at least a couple of different cemeteries round Manchester recently, it's grim

I don't think that anti-semitism allegation have a big direct effect on electoral outcome, I agree that most of the electorate just doesn't care all that much, but I think it can indirectly damage electability by losing the support of ppl in politics/media/etc ("influencers" I guess?)

has the corbyn project ever had the support of ppl in media tho? i think on the whole not -- even OJ wobbled! i think part of its gamble -- and part of its effectiveness -- has been to end-run the very controlling blair-cameron approach, on the not-unconvincing grounds that much of what we're seeing in the unravelment of politics as we had grown used to it is ppl reacting against that kind of control

Also if people are coming into politics these days do you think the Labour party will serve them by being more bothered by anti-semitism, or less?

And no the answer isn't some sort of Caroline Lucas/Ocasio-Cortez being Labour leader dreck that yer LJs of this world are going on about.

Genuinely can't parse this.

end-run the very controlling blair-cameron approach

just to unpack this a bit: blair and cameron made no moves -- and very much shaped policy -- round the ways they could make it play in the media, endlessly pampering and thus pre-empting their own coverage. the corbyn project has bent the stick a LONG way in the other direction tactically, which of course suits their personal temperaments and their ethos -- it remains to be seen whether they need to become more flexible here (i find it hard to judge bcz my own political tastes get in the way)

LJ (and this is a lot of ppl within Labour) is for someone with Corbyn's politics but without that specific old-left baggage. Someone with better communication skills and so on. At least that's what I'm getting - I've never given enough of a shit to delve in it too deeply. xp

apropos of nothing being discussed at the moment: this profile of theresa may and the quietly-blooming mushroom cloud of brexit in the new yorker is a great read and i don't think it's been posted on ilx yet (?)

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/07/30/theresa-mays-impossible-choice

lol. You must be joking!

Well lets talk when parliament re-opens and May has to get Brexit through. We'll see who gives a damn about the NEC then.

OJ has definitely wobbled (as has Ellie Mae O'Hagan and Abi Wilkinson).

one of the blunt facts abt all politics -- i am in apothegm-delivery mode today apparently -- is that while old ppl go away all the time, old baggage really never goes away

young people often get useful stuff done by not realising this tho

also many a mickle makes a muckle

i submit that old ppl in politics don't go away enough or early enough tbh

*often enough or early enough