MENA, MENA, Tekel, Parsin (Middle East, North Africa & other Geopolitical Hotspots) 2018

Saudis, Al Queda, and the US

The deals uncovered by the AP investigation reflect the contradictory interests of the two wars being waged simultaneously in the southwestern corner of the Arabian Peninsula.

In one conflict, the US is working with its Arab allies - particularly the UAE - with the aim of eliminating al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). But the larger mission is to win the civil war against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels.

And in that fight, al-Qaeda fighters are effectively on the same side as the Saudi-led coalition and, by extension, the US.

"Elements of the US military are clearly aware that much of what the US is doing in Yemen is aiding AQAP and there is much angst about that," said Michael Horton, a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

"However, supporting the UAE and Saudi Arabia against what the US views as Iranian expansionism takes priority over battling AQAP and even stabilising Yemen," Horton said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/report-saudi-uae-coalition-cut-deals-al-qaeda-yemen-180806074659521.html

the [Saudi] coalition cut secret deals with al-Qaida fighters, paying some to leave key cities and towns and letting others retreat with weapons, equipment and wads of looted cash, an investigation by The Associated Press has found. Hundreds more were recruited to join the coalition itself.

https://apnews.com/f38788a561d74ca78c77cb43612d50da/Yemen:-US-allies-don't-defeat-al-Qaida-but-pay-it-to-go-away

I'm sure that'll all be fine

Pretty much the story of the Sunni Awakening during the Iraq war. Thousands who had been bombing convoys the prior year were put on the payroll. Cheaper to pay them to do nothing than to patch up after IEDs.

Meanwhile, Saudi coalition air attacks that kill children continue:

An airstrike from the Saudi-led coalition struck a school bus in northern Yemen on Thursday and killed dozens of people, many of them children, local medical officials and international aid groups said.

The attack sent a flood of victims to overwhelmed hospitals struggling to cope in what the United Nations considers one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

The coalition said it had hit missile launchers and called the attack a “legitimate military operation,” but the attack and the justification for it were condemned and drew new attention to the tremendous human toll of the war in Yemen, especially on children.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/world/middleeast/yemen-airstrike-school-bus-children.html

Astonishing graphic from @CNN, identifying civilian massacres in Yemen with the bomb makers - Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics. This should be standard in war reporting. Searing images. https://t.co/EZqkSsAri6 pic.twitter.com/NWJvPuN7ct

— Tim Shorrock (@TimothyS) August 18, 2018

For the sort of people who would invest in Raytheon, that's just getting good notices in the press.

The weak crumble, are slaughtered and are erased from history while the strong, for good or for ill, survive. The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong.

— PM of Israel (@IsraeliPM) August 29, 2018

not creepy at all

what in almighty fuck

not creepy nazi at all

How much do you bench

— Scott (@firescotch) August 30, 2018

Air raids have pounded areas in Syria's last rebel-held province of Idlib, killing several civilians and raising further concerns that an all-out government offensive is only a matter of time.

The strikes on Tuesday came as the United Nations urged Russia, a Syrian government ally, and Turkey, which backs certain rebel groups in Idlib, to help avert a "bloodbath".

A full-scale military offensive would be devastating for the nearly three million people living in the province, including many rebels and civilians who were bussed out of other areas as they came back under government control.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/syria-war-warplanes-hit-idlib-targets-fears-battle-mount-180904095502071.html

No stopping dictator Assad.

This is what Assad anticipated when he began driving refugees into Idlib.

As a strategy, it was exceptionally effective. He got a modest bit of credit by appearing lenient. The areas the refugees left became much easier to reassert control over and less costly to feed. Idlib was burdened by hundreds of thousands of people where there was no infrastructure to support them. Now they are fish in a barrel and he can finish them off.

this is worth a read, from a journalist who's been allowed in

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/a-close-up-look-at-the-forgotten-war-in-yemen-a-1228775-amp.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/turkey-concludes-saudi-journalist-khashoggi-killed-by-murder-team-sources-say/2018/10/06/31ee4f86-c8d9-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html

last year May said she would and could talk about human rights issues with our good friends and trading partners The Saudis. I bet she's got bugger all to say about this.

I would love to be proven wrong, but the reactions that this will be a big crisis for the Saudi/US relationship seems a bit naive? Why would Trump think anything was wrong with killing journalists...

Not just a bit. I’m still hoping they don’t start killing journalists here too!

A friend of mine wrote this:
https://fpif.org/syrias-long-war-will-be-decided-in-these-three-theaters/

Seems like a pretty good update on what is going on in Syria.

The issue for Trump is that the Senate call for an investigation of Kashoggi's disappearance was made to invoke Magnitsky_Act provisions. They're will of course be foot dragging (I'm not sure if the 2017 sanctions on Russia have been enforced yet).

Lots of foot dragging

Was reading crazy right-wing nut tweets about their view that Kashoggi was associated with Bin Laden, and even if he wasn't -- the real enemy is Iran not Saudi Arabia...

Did the Saudis not realize that Turkey would probably have the consulate bugged? Or did they think Erdogan wouldn’t seize the opportunity to drive a wedge into the Jared-MBS bromance? Seems like total amateur hour. The Russians would never be this clumsy.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/Afghan-Security-Meeting-Shooting-US-Troops-Hurt-497914931.html

Three top officials in the Afghan province of Kandahar were killed by their own guards in an attack at a security meeting that also wounded two U.S. troops, Afghan officials said Thursday.

A Taliban spokesman who claimed responsibility for the attack tells The Associated Press that U.S. Gen. Scott Miller, commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, was the target. NATO officials say Miller escaped unharmed.

Kandahar's deputy provincial governor Agha Lala Dastageri said powerful provincial police chief Abdul Razik and the province's intelligence chief Abdul Mohmin died immediately in the attack and provincial governor Zalmay Wesa died of his injuries at a hospital.

Abdul Raziq, the head of the Kandahar police, had been accused of systematic human rights violations. He was killed by the Taliban who are pretty brutal themselves. Afghanistan, what a mess.

I'm not sure much of the world would object to a Wall surrounding the Graveyard of Empires.

what fresh hell would have been unleashed if a goddamn US general was killed in that op? when your 17 year old war is going great!

The Russians would never be this clumsy.

The Skripal debacle suggests otherwise.

... not to mention Litvinenko's assassins leaving a trail of radiocative polonium throughout London from their hotel room to the place they poisoned him and the two clowns who were recently thrown out of the Netherlands for trying to hack into the lab that was carrying out analysis on Novichok samples left behind by the two geniuses who went after the Skripals

I think that the Litvinenko case and maybe the Skripal case as well were intended to be obviously Russian handiwork. I mean you don't poison someone with a rare radioactive isotope that only a government could get a hold of if you don't intend to leave a calling card. I think Putin got about the level of deniability that he intended to get in that case. And if it weren't for some lucky breaks in the Skripal case, it's likely there never would have been an identification of the suspects, and even then it took months. I don't think these cases are really comparable to the total shitshow that the Khashoggi case has been for the Saudis.

The Skripal case was a shitshow as well. The targets survived, and two other people died. That is not how assassinations are supposed to go.

Fair point. The attempted cover up with the tv interview of those 2 guys was pretty amateurish as well.

What do you do after the young prince you helped install has a Washington-based journalist murdered and dismembered? You throw a dinner party for the chair of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace https://t.co/LvDJD2MOFq

— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 23, 2018

Oh Saudi Arabia...

Oh United Arab Emirates Kingdom...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-46300609

How is our glorious country sown?

No good news here it seems

Yemeni prisoner exchange seems like good news, even if it only helps out the prisoners and leads no further.

Re: the Friday call between Trump and Ergodan that lead to 1) Trump's decision to evacuate US troops from Syria in 60-100 days, 2) US go-ahead for Turkish military to move into areas held by US Kurdish allies (YPG, etc), 3) a $3.5 B order for Patriot missiles, and 4) consideration to extradite opposition cleric Gulen from US to Turkey, Ragıp Soylu's twitter is a pretty interesting source.

But money can't buy love or happiness. But, it can buy US foreign policy.

this is obviously not good for the kurd proxies, but I'm not entirely sure what the end game was going to be here after the "defeat of isis" in terms of US support for irregular forces who are enemies of a NATO ally (no matter how poor a NATO ally Turkey is)

there will be countries providing aid (covert + overt) to the kurds; they have a real opportunity imo tho the risks are also enormous. i can't help but think about 1948. obv the world is much more different today but building a state is a treacherous enterprise.

can't someone just assassinate Erdogan already

talking to my Turkish friends about the country's political situation is depressing

psyched for the coming genocide.

As Syria’s government consolidates control after years of civil war, President Bashar al-Assad’s army is doubling down on executions of political prisoners, with military judges accelerating the pace they issue death sentences, according to survivors of the country’s most notorious prison.

In interviews, more than two dozen Syrians recently released from the Sednaya military prison in Damascus described a government campaign to clear the decks of political detainees. The former inmates said prisoners are being transferred from jails across Syria to join death-row detainees in Sednaya’s basement and then be executed in pre-dawn hangings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/syria-bodies/

https://i.imgur.com/HMQuKOW.png

Erdogan called the Kurds "terrorists" too.

So should we do a 2019 thread?

psyched, I tell you.