the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

In fairness to the Pope dullard he was directly responding (four years ago) to Horowitz claiming the exact opposite but it does look a bit 'free TV licenses for Iraqi widows' in isolation.

stuff that could look like belonging to an Onion article, but it's some twat from Progress!

Boris Johnson: Tea anyone? pic.twitter.com/PoMdE9phlD

— Matthew Collings (@m_collings) August 13, 2018

Corbyn-Netanyahu is an ilx style flamewar

Dr Corbius.

I know, it's Sunny Hundal and everything but the fact that point #3 even needs to be explained to some people is extremely revealing about post-2010 politics.

So I think Corbyn is at that stage where he could literally shoot someone on Oxford Street and still maintain his base.

There are three main reasons for this, IMO:
1) Media
2) Brexit
3) Economy

— Sunny Hundal (@sunny_hundal) August 13, 2018

I mean specifically this:

3) I don't think Westminster appreciates how much anger at the economy and growing inequality drives Corbyn's support. Is anyone else talking about it? No. Not even Labour 'moderates'.

Meanwhile, Tories are hemmed in between their ideology and reality.

— Sunny Hundal (@sunny_hundal) August 13, 2018

he could literally shoot someone on Oxford Street and still maintain his base

If it was a Tory then sure of course.

Is Sunny Hundal bad? I do not know.

Well said xyzzzz.

Wonder if he was ranking them in which case Sunny is def part of the problem - economy is #1, and had a role in #2. The Media are 30 people howling on twitter in August. xps

yep, disillusionment with the media goes deeper than their treatment of corbyn, it's generational & unlikely to change imo

Corbyn could get away with shooting someone, but if the likes of Blair, Campbell, Darling .. started backing Corbyn and telling the electorate to vote for him with the usual levels of condescension they reserve for talking to children or household pets - he could be knackered.

Dr Corbius, I should said instead Corbyn twice in one sentence!

I actually think Mr Hundal seems OK on that thread.

This reply, on the other hand:

Oh, come on. Lots of people who find it impossible to align with Corbyn care deeply about, and talk about, and act on inequality. It's beneath you to suggest otherwise.

— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) August 13, 2018

they care deeply about inequality up to the point they have to take any action whatsoever to combat it

well come on, lip service is arguably a form of action.

It's beneath you to suggest otherwise.

he could literally shoot someone on Oxford Street and still maintain his base

Is he saying this is a good thing? I don't believe it anyway, I think Corbyn is already on the wane.

My feet are beneath me.

I don't see it like that either. I don't think it's about his policy platform, which is little more than condensed Milibandism. It's the sticky perception of authenticity, which is both his attraction to those who buy it and a repulsion to those who don't.

— Jo Maugham QC (@JolyonMaugham) August 13, 2018

It's the austerity, stupid.

Twitter has been good for exposing how poor the thinking really is among journos, but it also elevates these really silly individuals.

The only way we'll know if Corbyn is on the wane is if people were not turning up on any rallies and there was some serious internal opposition on Labour's Brexit position. Unfortunately for the press these attacks re-energise his base.

I think Corbyn support would get much stronger if an election was called, even amongst people that are not particularly into Corbynism but are seeing austerity affecting local services, schools etc

life through a Joylon tinted lens is generally like walking around on stilts, but tbf he hid campaign for the Garrick Club to accept female members.

for once I feel able to engage in the true spirit of this thread: people who proudly display their post-nominal letters are to be pushed into the pit

LOOOOOL

That's no way to talk about Matt DC !!!

bloody tankies!

I'm starting to think it's very doubtful that either party leader will fight the next election campaign, although that does depend on when it is and whether the government collapses before 2022 (which it surely must). Not a cat in hell's chance that May will.

There's not going to be an election for a while yet and, yes, I don't think Corbyn will be there to fight it.

Because he is 69 years old?

I disagree, earlier this month i thought Corbyn might be moving aside - but I can't see it happening before the next election rn.

Things are changing so rapidly at the moment, four years is such a long time. I mean four years ago we were talking about Cameron, Miliband and Clegg and no one had even used the word 'Brexit' on ILX.

Who can say? What *is* interesting is that a right-wing oppo research company has set up shop in the UK just this spring:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/why-has-republican-attack-operation-opened-shop-in-uk

I don't know, I'm just speculating, I've never been a great fan of Corbyn anyway but there's no-one else apart from McDonnell.

Both parties have the one problem - no one to replace them.

Although after the exchanges we had here last week I was thinking that Laura Pidcock could be what the likes of lj could be praying for. Young, left more than centre-left but without the practiced anti-imperialism (and indeed could be 'schooled' into imperialism). To young to have any associations although as I think its more telling that all of the noise has occured in August and no one in the media raising it really cares about Jews or Muslims. Be far more serious then.

when I read a Jolyon opining i go thru 3 stages: firstly I want to take apart the dishonesty, wishful thinking and rhetorical shiftiness bit by bit; secondly i sigh and think 'what's the point? his policies are a product of his class and his upbringing and he won't change them'; then finally i contemplate whether shooting or exile would be the better option

the extremely poor Labour results in the council elections in May shows that Corbyn peaked quite a while before that.

Sorry that last bit is garbled and its more of a separate point to the overall thing. blah

I think the miserablist tankie thought police of ILX are being so harsh on poor Joylon today:p

Actually Labour don't have much of an offering for Local government and I wouldn't take it as an indication of Corbyn as leader. The polling nationally has held up to the general election and nothing substantial has happened to change that either way. xp

Turnout much higher in the GE as well. Labour did terribly in the previous lot of local elections as well.

Thing is some kind of major political and/or economic shock in the next few years is a near certainty and you have to price that in. It's also reliant on Corbyn not coming under any challenge from the left, and I think it's reasonably likely that he will, whether it's over antisemitism or Brexit.

I think that Jolyon Maugham has stated that he was brought up in relatively challenging or impoverished circumstances, by a single parent as I recall.

Nobody makes people clarify their upbringing bona fides unless they say something spectacularly glib about the victims of austerity, so the fact that he had to say something....

I don't see how JC can face a challenge, in the PLP, from his left, as he is pretty much the furthest left of all Labour MPs.

If JC's age is a problem then we can rule out McDonnell as replacement.

I don't agree that there is a shortage of potential replacements. I think Labour has some depth of talent which is cheering. But I don't want to see a contest. I don't want to see Rayner (who I think could be favourite), Thornberry, Long-Bailey, Gardiner, Burgon and Lewis attacking each other, rather than the government.

I realize that 69 is past retirement age, and JC does not look young, but I believe that he is fit and healthy.

If there were a contest, I wonder whether some so-called centrist types would even bother to stand? Ummuna, Cooper, et al can no longer fancy their chances with the current membership. Though there would be the old problem of MPs needing a certain amount of support from MPs, which these people would easily get.

I think that every candidate would have to tack left rhetorically. I wonder who would be, in effect, the most right-wing candidate - perhaps Thornberry? Who is not right-wing by most people's standards.

I should not be promoting the idea of a contest and JC not being leader.

Rayner (who I think could be favourite)

wtf?

I thought he was beginning to wane then I was on the train coming back from Castleford and overheard people saying "whats this hamas thing theyre on about" (also last week a scouse girl in the office asked what does brexit was so...), and I thought has any of this even registered anywhere, and now Ive no idea if he is waning or resurgent or surfing sine waves

Brexit is the only thing I can see Corbyn coming under a challenge on but I see no evidence that enough numbers on the left are agitating - partly because everyone is just watching in horror as the Tories make their mess over this.

But also although most young Labour voters are both pro-Corbyn and pro-EU Corbyn talks enough of their language on most other issues that I don't see anyone pushing on this just now. Corbyn has given no indication he would like the UK to have a no deal. His line on respecting the democratic will of the voters is not something many within Left Labour disagree on.

iirc windmill jolyon went into the details of his background after an attack from the right re privilege* ("all remainers are elite poshos!") rather than one from the left

*might have been arron banks? not sure

Corbyn has given no indication he would like the UK to have a no deal. His line on respecting the democratic will of the voters is not something many within Left Labour disagree on.

These two lines will start to chafe sometime soon, though. I'm not certain that fruitful ambiguity is going to last all the way to the next election.

pollyon:

windmill jolyon
jo(lyon) green
rub jolyon (aka podcast jolyon)

are there any others ?