the day after the deadline: can the union survive brexit and other deep questions

LOOOOOL

That's no way to talk about Matt DC !!!

bloody tankies!

I'm starting to think it's very doubtful that either party leader will fight the next election campaign, although that does depend on when it is and whether the government collapses before 2022 (which it surely must). Not a cat in hell's chance that May will.

There's not going to be an election for a while yet and, yes, I don't think Corbyn will be there to fight it.

Because he is 69 years old?

I disagree, earlier this month i thought Corbyn might be moving aside - but I can't see it happening before the next election rn.

Things are changing so rapidly at the moment, four years is such a long time. I mean four years ago we were talking about Cameron, Miliband and Clegg and no one had even used the word 'Brexit' on ILX.

Who can say? What *is* interesting is that a right-wing oppo research company has set up shop in the UK just this spring:

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/why-has-republican-attack-operation-opened-shop-in-uk

I don't know, I'm just speculating, I've never been a great fan of Corbyn anyway but there's no-one else apart from McDonnell.

Both parties have the one problem - no one to replace them.

Although after the exchanges we had here last week I was thinking that Laura Pidcock could be what the likes of lj could be praying for. Young, left more than centre-left but without the practiced anti-imperialism (and indeed could be 'schooled' into imperialism). To young to have any associations although as I think its more telling that all of the noise has occured in August and no one in the media raising it really cares about Jews or Muslims. Be far more serious then.

when I read a Jolyon opining i go thru 3 stages: firstly I want to take apart the dishonesty, wishful thinking and rhetorical shiftiness bit by bit; secondly i sigh and think 'what's the point? his policies are a product of his class and his upbringing and he won't change them'; then finally i contemplate whether shooting or exile would be the better option

the extremely poor Labour results in the council elections in May shows that Corbyn peaked quite a while before that.

Sorry that last bit is garbled and its more of a separate point to the overall thing. blah

I think the miserablist tankie thought police of ILX are being so harsh on poor Joylon today:p

Actually Labour don't have much of an offering for Local government and I wouldn't take it as an indication of Corbyn as leader. The polling nationally has held up to the general election and nothing substantial has happened to change that either way. xp

Turnout much higher in the GE as well. Labour did terribly in the previous lot of local elections as well.

Thing is some kind of major political and/or economic shock in the next few years is a near certainty and you have to price that in. It's also reliant on Corbyn not coming under any challenge from the left, and I think it's reasonably likely that he will, whether it's over antisemitism or Brexit.

I think that Jolyon Maugham has stated that he was brought up in relatively challenging or impoverished circumstances, by a single parent as I recall.

Nobody makes people clarify their upbringing bona fides unless they say something spectacularly glib about the victims of austerity, so the fact that he had to say something....

I don't see how JC can face a challenge, in the PLP, from his left, as he is pretty much the furthest left of all Labour MPs.

If JC's age is a problem then we can rule out McDonnell as replacement.

I don't agree that there is a shortage of potential replacements. I think Labour has some depth of talent which is cheering. But I don't want to see a contest. I don't want to see Rayner (who I think could be favourite), Thornberry, Long-Bailey, Gardiner, Burgon and Lewis attacking each other, rather than the government.

I realize that 69 is past retirement age, and JC does not look young, but I believe that he is fit and healthy.

If there were a contest, I wonder whether some so-called centrist types would even bother to stand? Ummuna, Cooper, et al can no longer fancy their chances with the current membership. Though there would be the old problem of MPs needing a certain amount of support from MPs, which these people would easily get.

I think that every candidate would have to tack left rhetorically. I wonder who would be, in effect, the most right-wing candidate - perhaps Thornberry? Who is not right-wing by most people's standards.

I should not be promoting the idea of a contest and JC not being leader.

Rayner (who I think could be favourite)

wtf?

I thought he was beginning to wane then I was on the train coming back from Castleford and overheard people saying "whats this hamas thing theyre on about" (also last week a scouse girl in the office asked what does brexit was so...), and I thought has any of this even registered anywhere, and now Ive no idea if he is waning or resurgent or surfing sine waves

Brexit is the only thing I can see Corbyn coming under a challenge on but I see no evidence that enough numbers on the left are agitating - partly because everyone is just watching in horror as the Tories make their mess over this.

But also although most young Labour voters are both pro-Corbyn and pro-EU Corbyn talks enough of their language on most other issues that I don't see anyone pushing on this just now. Corbyn has given no indication he would like the UK to have a no deal. His line on respecting the democratic will of the voters is not something many within Left Labour disagree on.

iirc windmill jolyon went into the details of his background after an attack from the right re privilege* ("all remainers are elite poshos!") rather than one from the left

*might have been arron banks? not sure

Corbyn has given no indication he would like the UK to have a no deal. His line on respecting the democratic will of the voters is not something many within Left Labour disagree on.

These two lines will start to chafe sometime soon, though. I'm not certain that fruitful ambiguity is going to last all the way to the next election.

pollyon:

windmill jolyon
jo(lyon) green
rub jolyon (aka podcast jolyon)

are there any others ?

xp Even if it does Corbyn offers enough on housing, education and a general restructure in many areas.

But yes it will depend on events. The crash could come from the EU side too.

there are more!

there's a (perhaps understandably) low-key "socialist jolyon", there's an F1 racing driver and there's the star who birthed them all

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0f/Seraphin_Lampion.jpg

there's also MJ Gleeson CEO and classic car enthusiast Jolyon Harrison

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ClGGfZUWgAAYqkq.jpg

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/742/32127907265_9c8881fa2b.jpg

https://c1.staticflickr.com/8/7361/27614147426_691b42f942_b.jpg

https://d1nslcd7m2225b.cloudfront.net/Pictures/480xany/3/4/1/1262341_Jolyon-Rubinstein.jpg

are there any others ?

Jolyon out.

I had to look up Jolyon Wagg's 'real' French name - Séraphin Lampion!

so far i have also forgotten it every time we cycle back to this point

'What Hergé intended in French is not possible to translate directly, however he "wanted something 'puffed up', a tone which expressed at the same time fleshy and weak."[5] Wagg’s original French name, Séraphin Lampion [se.ʁa.fɛ̃ lɑ̃.pjɔ̃], is a contrast between the first name meaning seraphim, and the last name meaning a "chintzy little lamp of the sort Wagg would use to decorate his home",[6] or perhaps alternatively "a show off".' ok wikisneery

wagg very much *isn't* a posho

Tintin et le grosse bête.

lol

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 39% (+2)
CON: 37% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 5% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+2)

via @BMGResearch, 06 - 10 Aug

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 14, 2018

Jeremy Hunt has called on the EU to change its approach on Brexit, and said the risk of failing to reach a deal has risen in recent weeks.

wait, hasn't there been a significant change in recent weeks?

yes it should definitely be down to the eu to change their approach, britain is holding all the cards and they'd be crazy not to cave to our every demand

They need us more than we need them .... etc.

This thread and some of the replies within have been one of the few good faith engagements w/this wreath business.

So what we can say about Corbyn's conduct? He clearly had a vague idea of the cemetery and who was commemorated there, he got the details wrong. There's nothing to show that he thought he was commemorating the Munich massacre perpetrators. BUT >> https://t.co/Q44wmBAJVu

— Yair Wallach (@YairWallach) August 13, 2018

If we must have Lords I am at least glad there is one called Lord Sheikh.

ditto but lord wigley

Laura Pidcock has already said she can't be friends with a Tory, which for all its being a laudable sentiment is a political gaffe that will be used against her. She's out

She gets my vote.

anyone who bitterly hates tories to the extent of not ever being civil to one, is fine by me.

Laura Pidcock was born in the late 80s and has about a year's experience in politics, somehow I don't think she's going to be a leadership candidate next time round unless they're deliberately going for the candidate that least resembles Corbyn.

Meanwhile:

Thread on Brexit, lorry drivers, Chris Grayling and no deal planning. If you think government's no deal planning is all fine and dandy, *read this*. Full story also below. https://t.co/TnqP72S1cn

— James Rothwell (@JamesERothwell) August 15, 2018

lol we're all gonna die

is it possible to have a 2:1 in history from Cambridge and be genuinely as thick as pigshit? Because Grayling never gives the impression of having even one functioning brain cell.

It's a combination of laziness, being way out of his depth, and not being able to brush that off or otherwise convincingly wing it.