Poll: Kavanaugh confirmation. Place your bets, ladies and gents!

I voted.

option b

aborted within 72 hours of conception?

too late

I voted for what I want, not what I think is likely.

Voted 3rd option although it seems less likely today then it did yesterday. Republicans seem more eager to torch themselves than jump ship and get some other shitty judge in there.

Just to take some of the pressure off, when you consider who makes the nominations, every vote is a loser, so don't sweat it too hard.

optimistically option 3

It all depends on Ford's testimony

nomination collapses after ford hearings, trump nominates whichever female judge someone puts in front of him, she gets confirmed in a flash, media celebrates his savvy politicking

pretty much what I'm thinking ^

Kavanaugh will be confirmed and it will break down exactly by party lines.

If need be Republicans will do whatever they need to do to make sure the vote comes before the midterm-elected senate takes office, even though i doubt the Democrats will win a majority.

since the order of the options will be messed up once the results roll in, here they are for posterity:

1) Be confirmed by the Senate as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.
2) Be voted upon by the Senate, but not be confirmed.
3) Remove his name from consideration before his confirmation is voted upon by the Senate.

i honestly don't know. if kavanaugh had any integrity, option 3. failing that, if the republican senate had any integrity, option 2. leaning option 1

Remooooooove ya

i don't think ford's testimony is going to be make a difference. they'll name some legal rando to do the questioning, and they'll ask her many questions about what the exact address was, the exact time, the posters that were or weren't on the wall - things she doesn't know. it'll all be bullshit but her inability to answer will be enough to convince everyone who wants to be convinced that she's making it all up.

if the nomination goes down, i think it'll be because of some of the recent allegations that aren't even part of the mainstream conversation yet - the third and fourth accusers, possibly more details to come about some pretty horrific things. this is all so fucking gross, that it's come this far and his confirmation is still an open question. it really stands out as a shameful moment in our history, and given what's happened recently that's saying something.

trump nominates whichever female judge someone puts in front of him

Brittany Kavanaugh, but she looks strangely familiar...

xp I disagree, I think if she does well this could be a defining #MeToo moment. It's certainly the biggest stakes yet. Ratings on Thursday will be ridiculous. If she does well and gets some good soundbites, and more people come out, he might not get the votes. McConnell has said there will be a floor vote no matter what, so option 3 is only going to happen if Kavanaugh voluntarily withdraws (not gonna happen) or Trump figures on Friday, eh let's just cut our losses and nominate someone else when we still have time.

yeah, i mean i think that could happen too (ford doing really well on thursday, enough to shift things decisively)! i'm just not sure it's the most likely outcome.

that's kind of ambiguous - to be clear, i think she could do an extraordinary job under high pressure and clearly corner kavanaugh in some way or another, and STILL republicans wouldn't give a shit.

^ Exactly the thinking behind my prediction above.

It is still necessary to consider whether every Democrat would indeed vote against Kavanaugh. This was far from certain prior to the Ford allegations, and may still be a very tough vote for Manchin. Heidi Heitkamp and Tester now probably feel a greater freedom to vote nay than they did two weeks ago. If Manchin defects to the yay side, then McConnell could give Murkowski a free pass to vote nay, easing his troubles considerably. Collins is just a hopeless human being.

Couldn't decide between 1 and 2. Seems to late to pull the nomination and doesn't seem to be any inclination to do so anyway. Went with option 1 in the end, as Aimless says I'm unclear that every Democrat would vote against. At least, its not something I'd want to rely on

There may be up to about three defections. I doubt this would be the case if the Dems had, say, a 2-seat majority.

McConnell is smug when he has the votes and pushy when he doesn’t.

This one-trick turtle doesnt have a winning hand. He knows it. So does everyone else at the table.

This will never see a vote. https://t.co/lKWSzbGspk

— The Hoarse Whisperer (@HoarseWisperer) September 25, 2018

nomination collapses after ford hearings, trump nominates whichever female judge someone puts in front of him, she gets confirmed in a flash, media celebrates his savvy politicking

iatee otm

Was Kavanaugh interview as bad as it sounds.

on Sunday I was confident that he'd have his name pulled after three more allegations came out but once again I overestimated the Republicans

I have no faith in anything but the bottomless evil and scumminess of the Republican party, so I voted option A. Someone could produce a binder full of Polaroids of passed-out naked women, with Kavanaugh giving a drunken thumbs-up next to each one, and Susan Collins would still vote for him.

she would have "significant concerns" though

"I was a virgin at the time. In fact, I still am. In fact, I don't even have a penis."

the posters that were or weren't on the wall

Blancmange's "Mange Tout", Simple Minds "Don't You Forget About Me", Bryan Ferry "Slave to Love", Cabaret Voltaire "Micro-Phonies", Jean and Francois Clouet's "Francis I of France", Killing Joke, Flesh For Lulu "Blue Sisters Swing" and "Baby Hurricane", The Rave-Ups "Positively Lost Me", Charlie Sexton's "Pictures For Pleasure", The Damned "Phantasmagoria", "Snake Charmer" by Jah Wobble, the Edge, and Holger Czukay, one large American flag, and one Union Jack

no Democrats are going to vote for Kavanaugh at this point

I only have wishes/preferred or desired outcomes -- making bets about this scares me tbrrwu

Follow your heart, LL. Nothing we do in this thread will change Kavanaugh's fate and the next nominee will be just as bad in terms of swinging the court hard right, but the emotional impact of Kavanaugh getting seated is a separate kind of badness the nation shouldn't have to deal with.

chose option 2 -- wishful thinking more than logic, like others

a)

Anyone changing their prediction?

I'd like to think differently, but I don't see how today changes the numbers, or even how it could have changed the numbers

Nope

on the betting markets it went from about 52% to 47% after Ford's testimony. it continued to drop through Kavanaugh's opening statement and rebounded quick after Graham and the subsequent questioning. he's at 77% now. barring something unexpected I think he's in.

I think they'll confirm him, I don't think anything that happened at the hearing made any difference to his chances, and I don't understand the minds of the people who think otherwise.

so what will this guy do if he gets in apart from a serious effort to ban abortion

question is what won’t he do

the supreme court doesn’t make law, they uphold or strike down law. so he will empower a lot of bad lawmaking.

what are some of the new laws being mooted

Think of some - you're probably right.

so what will this guy do if he gets in apart from a serious effort to ban abortion

Theoretically overturn same-sex marriage, gut labor unions, further restrict the rights of arrestees, make it more difficult to sue corporations.

Decriminalisation of rape coming? Or at least for the right element from the right background?

isn't it effectively already decriminalized? or at least it's so seldom prosecuted that it may as well be.

yeah, nearly came back and added something along the lines.

It's not going to matter regardless of who furrows their brow, because the only course of removal is impeachment, which has been tried for a SCOTUS justice precisely once (1905) and he was acquitted by the Senate.

And obv the FBI won't get in any trouble

lindsey graham is very very upset at you for bumping this thread and might just blow up some iranian oil to show you what's what

50 immensely powerful people who knowingly voted for a sexual assaulter

And serial perjurer.

I mean a Ron Paul voter once told me, after being presented with evidence that he was probably racist and actually agreeing with said evidence, replied "Well it's too bad a slightly racist Representative is the only man who can fix our country's problems. I still gotta vote for him".

So no doubt they'd be cursing the Democrats for "forcing them to elevate a rapist to the court to save America"

Man! Y'all should post a trigger warning for reviving this thread.

At this point every Republican is a walking trigger warning for me.

Ugh more like walking triggers!! I saw this thread and paranoidally (?) figured that someone somewhere in the news cycle figured Oh! it has been a while since we talked about sexual assault and what better way to bring it up again than a new accusation against that piece of garbage BK!!

from august 7, but our nation turns its lonely eyes to Buzzfeed

#FOIA thread screed

FBI, the WORST agency when it comes to transparency, the agency that routinely violates #FOIA, has ONLY NOW, after NEARLY A YEAR OF LITIGATION, decided to tell me & @BuzzFeedNews that it is withholding the report on its "investigation" into Brett Kavanaugh
1/ pic.twitter.com/nSxHdCYZOM

— Jason Leopold (@JasonLeopold) August 7, 2019

more of this please

I sat through those hearings. Brett Kavanaugh lied to the U.S. Senate and most importantly to the American people. He was put on the Court through a sham process and his place on the Court is an insult to the pursuit of truth and justice.

He must be impeached.

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) September 15, 2019

A long read.

A devastating read.

I wish we could have learned what Brett Kavanaugh has actually done, said, worked on, enabled, covered for, empowered. Perhaps the next book will reveal more. Perhaps the one after that. The collective public conclusion of the most recent book, by Kate Kelly and Robin Pogrebin, seems to be that he was a sloppy, reckless, drunk youth who has largely become better, and that it is perhaps unfair to hold men to standards that we somehow always forgive when they are still boys. We didn’t get to have that conversation either. And the people who most deserve to decide whether he is, in fact, cured of these alleged acts of youthful carelessness, violence, and predation—the women who say he has harmed them—have, other than Ford, neither been heard nor recognized. I’m not certain they subscribe to the narrative that he was a naughty boy now recovered. He spent his confirmation hearing erasing them, and his boosters and fans have made their lives since unbearable. At any rate, they are also powerless, now, to change what has occurred.

It is not my job to decide if Brett Kavanaugh is guilty. It’s impossible for me to do so with incomplete information, and with no process for testing competing facts. But it’s certainly not my job to exonerate him because it’s good for his career, or for mine, or for the future of an independent judiciary. Picking up an oar to help America get over its sins without allowing for truth, apology, or reconciliation has not generally been good for the pursuit of justice. Our attempts to get over CIA torture policies or the Iraq war or anything else don’t bring us closer to truth and reconciliation. They just make it feel better—until they do not. And we have all spent far too much of the past three years trying to tell ourselves that everything is OK when it most certainly is not normal, not OK, and not worth getting over.

Another telling paragraph:

Two of the three women justices spoke out this summer to support their new colleague. They hailed him as a mentor to his female clerks or as a collegial member of the Nine and urged us, in the case of Justice Sonia Sotomayor, to look to the future and turn the page. It is, of course, their actual job to get over it. They will spend the coming years doing whatever they can to pick off a vote of his, here and there, and the only way that can happen is through generosity and solicitude and the endless public performance of getting over it. I understand this.

still amazed how the whole confirmation seemed to turn on Lindsay Graham throwing a literal tantrum on the floor of the Senate.

it was a powerful, persuasive moment for the dumbest people in the country

It was a stirring performance, I hope he added it to his reel.

it was the bathos of a sobbing Irish asshole 'being persecuted.' I thought it was pathetic but it turned on that, not Graham (although his remarks - I think he was the first to speak after BK's opening statement - made it clear the air had changed). of course it resonated with a lot of Americans.

The confirmation hearing was the first time I'd ever tuned in to a livestream of US Senate and wow I didn't realise I had that much respect to lose.

idk if this has been shared but it's an interview with mike davis, the strategist responsible for the intense doubling down on kavanaugh's innocence after it became clear he might lose the appointment. it is CHILLING and if you don't know about the "dead chicken strategy" i recommend reading the transcript or listening to the interview.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/podcasts/the-daily/impeachment-inquiry-democrats-republicans-kavanaugh.html?showTranscript=1

you learn all you need to know about him in the opening lines where he says he grew up the son of liberal democrats and won the Alex P Keaton award in 6th gr.
summary: his entire belief system/chilling worldview is a reactionary FU to his parents ;_;

Graham's tantrum was one of the most disgusting moments in US political history, I remember getting this sinking feeling in my stomach because I knew it was gonna work. it sucked because after Ford gave her testimony I thought he was sunk. I was like...there's no way anyone's gonna call this woman a liar, her credibility is clear as day. and of course the endgame was just to get her out of the room, send the prosecutor home (!!!) and spend hours thumping the table & apologizing profusely to Kavanaugh

It was basically 'all hands on deck to defend the white male patriarchy/"meritocracy"'

there's no way anyone's gonna call this woman a liar,

the grossest part about it (arguably...there were a lot of gross things about that day) was that the talking point republicans that day was "we don't think she was lying. we believe that she was assaulted that day. we just don't believe she remembers correctly that it was brett kavanaugh, the golden boy."

of course, within a couple days that morphed into "this was a scheme by the democrats to take down the golden boy brett kavanaugh and it failed, and ford is a liar", the kind of blatant lies we've all become accustomed to, but the day of, in particular, was filled with such disingenuous bullshit that it was fucking unbearable

My dad posted on some public fb post that Dr Ford is a "loon that couldn't keep her story straight" and I felt very good about no longer speaking with him.

which is an incredibly nuts argument to make! how do you remember everything so vividly except for the one small detail about who it actually was. the only reason you'd make that argument is because you're too much of a coward to call her a liar to her face. its almost as if each and every one of them know that yeah, he probably did it

the only reason you'd make that argument is because you're too much of a coward to call her a liar to her face.

remember when the GOP senators hid behind a female prosecutor

it was the bathos of a sobbing Irish asshole 'being persecuted.'

― flappy bird, Friday, 1 November 2019 05:16 (thirteen hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

this is ok?

well, he's not Irish, he's American, so prob not

yes the sexual assault prosecutor who was there solely to question....the victim

god it was so insane at the time but in retrospect it's even more nuts

no, Judge KAVANAUGH was the victim, sporty

um, i think you mean JUSTICE KAVAVANUGH, THE GOLDEN BOY OF THE SUPREME COURT

first of his name

has anyone read the link i posted? they describe the orchestrated attempt to destroy CBF's credibility as part of their attempt to get him onto the supreme court at all costs.

baby beer boy bret was not going to fail, in other words. they would have said and did say anything to ensure his success.

Really resonated. He said when dogs killed chickens, they would take those chickens and wrap it around those dogs’ necks. And as those chickens rotted around those dogs’ necks, those dogs lost the taste for chicken. And I think that’s what Republicans need to start doing with the left.

there it is! the dead chicken strategy :(

i haven't stopped thinking about this fool ever since i heard the interview on the radio (in the car in the rain on the way to see a show w a friend) weeks ago. it's DARVO + dead chicken shame, a real cocktail of coercive/abusive tactics. being exposed to the details of their slandering of her character over and over takes its toll. the only thing that makes me feel better is to share it with others.

it = information about the larger strategic push by conservatives to force their agenda on all of us

I read the link and was deeply disturbed. I just have this feeling that alternate reality is going to win over facts and it depresses the heck outta me.

well, don't get depressed and fucking fight.

yes, i agree! it is really depressing and also we need to check the urge to tap out on account of it being depressing.

i believe it will help if the greater dynamic (the shockingly cruel coercive behavior of those pushing the conservative agenda) can be exposed. one conversation at a time, if necessary. that's why i listened to it even though tbh it was quite hard!

Maybe my capacity for comprehending metaphor is slipping but ... is he calling Trump a dead chicken?

has anyone read the link i posted? they describe the orchestrated attempt to destroy CBF's credibility as part of their attempt to get him onto the supreme court at all costs.

i heard it when it came out! don't feel too bad - i've pushed various segments from the daily over the last several months that i thought were genuinely good and unique and containing information that wasn't anywhere else, and i'm pretty sure no one has ever clicked/read any of them

mike davis is one of the worst people on the planet. he shares many similarities with the people involved in the disinformation campaigns with tobacco and climate change. i'm sure they have a secret poker game in a really smoky, hot room where they talk about all the terrible things they've accomplished over the past week

yes he is evil

regarding the dead chicken -- no, it's not trump -- i would recommend reading the transcript of the interview -- they go into detail about what the chicken is. i can copy and paste it but it's really long. i would read from the point where they list the tenets of the strategy and the dead chicken stuff is in there.

not only evil but his entire evil philosophy is predicated on "FU mom & dad!" which is juvenile and petty on top of being evil

Saw an awful, awful play last week.

The protagonist is a meek and lonely man who can’t get dates because he stalked a girl when he was 17. His name ended up in a blog, that detailed the things he did to the girl—and the blog took on a life of its own, where other women came forward to detail their own experiences of being victimized. Now, when women google his name, they find this blog with some true and some fictional stories about what he did as a perpetrator.

The play centers on a court case, where the man is trying to get the blog removed from the internet. Some things the playwright did to try and get you to feel that the perpetrator was the victim:

1) The protagonist is meek, soft-spoken, boyishly charming in a bumbling sort of way.
2) His mom and dad died of cancer back to back when he was younger.
3) The girl who he stalked was the one who started the blog, and she herself may or may not have embellished things to reflect how being stalked made her feel (which she finds out by believing his words instead of her memory)

I went into the play thinking it would be one of two things: something informational about digital privacy and its importance, or some bullshit Brett Kavanaugh garbage. It was the latter.

Instead of trying to explore what forgiveness and atonement look like in the digital age, it paints the victim as a liar who has ruined the life of a young man. Further, the play misrepresents the GDPR, which is damaging to digital privacy in a big way.

I assumed it was written by some white guy, but in fact, it was written by one of the women who wrote on Suits, which I’ve heard is similarly intolerable.

Anyway, fuck this play and fuck Kavanaugh apologists.

Oh, the other thing that’s vomit-inducing is how the protagonist’s love interest who eventually accepts him and absolves him of his sins and gives him meaning is peak manic pixie dream girl.

Her: “You’re funny.”
Him: “what? No one has ever told me that before.”
Her: “Weird is good. I have a screwy sense of humor.”

Jesus fucking Christ, do better.

written by a man, I presume?

As I mentioned above, I thought so too. In fact, it wasn’t.

a fellow traveler I guess