Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

the classic trap-two-bears-n-let-em-go trend

wheeeeeee

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue think about quitting my job.

All potential candidates should be led into the interview by a disinterested third party after they've donned an oversized burlap suit (and, naturally, a matching hood which covers the entire head). All responses to interview questions should be tapped out in morse code lest the interviewer lapse into unconscious bias triggered by hearing a human voice.

Wow, was that ever the wrong thread!

Eh, I've been through more degrading job interviews.

so many little shitbins surrounding the big shitbin.

🎵 i’m a little shitbin, short and stout 🎵

gonna invest in shitbin inc.

speaking of bear traps, that was a helluva trap the first 45 mins of trading. 200 day moving average was breached which is a very negative signal (for longer time frames). But if you bought instead of panic sold you made almost 2% return in a day as the market rallied hard all day.

can't we just put the entire economy into Vanguard indexes and get this all over with once and for all

funny to read this thread

Who's pushing the pedals on the shitbin cycle?

Retail investors who were lulled into thinking the market goes up forever without a pullback. The last two years were a huge stupid ponzi.

you can always be sure the banks will lend some push to the shitbin cycle. assisting speculators in the misallocation of capital is practically their business model.

The market still has a ton of room to pullback.

i blame seeking alpha's mini cramers

I am hoping all the funds that have this last quarter to bring their numbers up for bonus season are doing their job to create downside volatility. They don't make money when stuff goes straight up.

The market still has a ton of room to pullback.

^ otmfm.

These days the equities markets and bond markets are only tethered to the real economy to the extent that monetary policy (the Fed) is tied to the real economy. The Fed's policies are tethered to accommodating banks' balance sheets as a proxy for the real economy. The banks no longer care about due diligence and throw money around carelessly on the understanding that if their risks blow up in their faces they will be rescued. The whole machinery is as shaky as a washing machine during the spin cycle with an unbalanced load.

Luckily we have a president who's an expert on unbalanced loads

I've been waiting all year for biotech to collapse. Today was a good day.

Can I invest in the Yerac fund?

My fund dividend plan is that I always buy the booze and food.

I'm in

yeah I think the news about rate increases is telling everyone the crack party is over

This might be worth a look: https://www.cfr.org/blog/trumps-stimulus-trumps-his-trade-policy

Is it bad the first thing I did was look at the author bio and roll my eyes?

damn, first the tech and now the graphy? no bio is safe.

at the least it didn't say "Proud Dad"

Trump's "Rates are unsustainably low and you're raising them too fast" reminds me of that old joke "Terrible food! And such small portions!"

At work the other week (consulting at a ratings agency) someone was talking about how the big three ratings agencies had done a lookback about their role in the puerto rico debt crisis and everyone felt fairly confident that they didn't mislead the public about the credit worthiness of the bonds and the blame rests with puerto rico and their mismanagement. Me and the latina woman in the room gave each other the look. I told her after I was going to buy an O RLY owl head to have on hand to put on in times like that.

I bring this up because I was just hate googling that guy in the blog post and watched 15 seconds of his talk on sanctions on Venezuela.

I got the impression that there's a fair amount of blame to put on UBS, which more or less controlled the entire bond market for puerto rico from front to back?

ok, sure, but from what I could see of that post (as the headline says) the rhetoric isn't matching the actions, and some of Trump's actions that do match it have effects that are yet to kick in. It didn't sound like he was a supporter. xp

I had to google a video because I thought he was british at first.

The way that blog post was written is like trump isn't doing all that shit in a spur of the moment silo and people are working backwards from the data produced.

Wheeeee!

On the one hand it’s too bad for my net worth but on t’other I’m getting a raise, the economy is a strange creature

not really sure what to do with my money rn

The market is still insanely high. I would assume most people here, if invested longterm bullishly, are still ahead. But also wheeeee.

Leaving it where it is for another few decades is usually a solid choice if you’re under 50

I’m an extremely passive investor though

yeah, I would think most people can just ignore whatever is going on.

I did use this time to set a stop loss order in a useless stock I owned just to make sure I knew how the mechanism worked

I set some high GTCs sells on bearish etfs in hopes of a flash crash.

I plan to just hold what I have for 30 years as well. But I've also held out 85% of savings last 0.5 year for going in at the next big discount. now how do I know it's arrived? Hoping yerac will let us know tbh.

I have no clue! I am only guessing. I never would've bet the market would've gone straight up after that terrible election.

yeah i have a decent chunk uninvested rn that I've been skittish on putting in because i was convinced we were headed to the shitbin but also i don't feel capable of understanding anything anymore after these past couple years

But I mean if there is a company you love for longterm, like for example SQ hit $100 recently now at ~$70, BABA hit over $200 recently now around $~140, I still think they are too high, ran up too fast especially from where they were at the beginning of 2016. But I am starting to think of buying a first small lot/tranche soon, but hoping to get further away from the price I sold both of them at. I can always average down if it dips far greater. I really don't know what's going to happen to the markets because of the Nov elections. And the market tends to be dead in Dec. except for people selling for tax purposes.

I would like to get in on the waitlist for The Yerac Fund as well btw