hall of fame, next vote...

Rizzo seems to be a similar hitter as Gonzales for someone playing now.

Helton's numbers in his 20s are lunacy by any measure.

I still think the best comparable to Helton is Donnie Baseball, both had these eye-popping and very brief peaks after which their power evaporated and they became Mark Grace types. I don’t think their peaks quite get them in the HOF, unless you’re making the peak era argument, in which case they both have the numbers to bolster your defense.

WAR and OPS+ for Mattingly-prime and Helton-prime are pretty close (slight edge to Helton).

Paul Goldschmidt is another player that is similar to Adrian Gonzalez to age 29-30.

sure, let's put a guy who received a lifetime ban from baseball into the hall before marvin miller

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrQt9yHX4AECuCP.jpg:small

none of those dudes should go in, except maybe will clark for being a hall of fame asshole

davey johnson was a good manager, but i suppose you have to win more than one pennant

Will Clark was pretty great in the late '80s in a low-offense environment; like McGriff, he kind of got overtaken by circumstances through the '90s. Belle's probably the best player on that list, but he comes with a caveat or twelve.

clark was one of my favorite players when i started collecting baseball cards ('88, '89). he almost led the league in average in 1989, behind only tony gwynn, and he had much more power.

since i'm talking 1989 - howard johnson threatened 40/40!!

Joe Carter makes Jim Rice look like Joe DiMaggio and he was pretty terrible for about half his career, i mean he is absurdly underqualified for the HOF.

Harold Baines was a really good hitter but i mean not that good. he just stuck around for a million years and almost got to 3000 hits.

If Albert Belle didn't have a shortened career he'd have an extremely good case. As it is, I figure a lot of sportswriters will be happy they don't have to dig too deep for a reason to not vote for the guy. As it stands, he had a terrifyingly fearsome peak. But it was only 5 or 6 seasons.

Will Clark was an amazing douchebag, but for several years he looked like a definite HOFer. He seemed to arrive as this fully formed power hitter with the best swing in MLB, but by the time he was 25 he'd already peaked. He didn't really become a poor hitter, he just put up Mark Grace numbers instead of what he'd done before. Some of that was due to injury, though. He had a couple of seasons at the end of his career that were in line with what he accomplished in SF, but by that time he was ready to retire. I think the '90s offensive explosion really diminished his legacy but he was great.

Hershiser is another lost pitcher of the '80s, arguably another arm lost to Lasorda, and obviously a guy talented enough during his best seasons to make a strong case that he's better than a lot of pitchers already in the HOF but I don't think he deserves it. I figure Morris may be lowering that bar enough for someone like him to slip in, I guess. Hershiser was better than him, at least. An actual example of a pitcher everyone thought was a HOFer when they witnessed him, as opposed to the possibly apocryphal stories about Jack.

Without checking (I might be forgetting somebody obvious), my recollection is that Clark was the consensus choice as the game's best first baseman between peak-Mattingly and the emergence of Thomas/Bagwell. McGriff was there with him as a hitter, but Clark was viewed as the more complete player.

another lost pitcher of the '80s

There are so many of them, starting with Stieb. The Stieb/Fernando/Gooden/Viola/Hershiser/Soto/Saberhagen generation. Plus a few more.

orel looks pretty good next to morris and catfish hunter, but yeah

will clark's numbers are not a great deal better than jack clark's, and no one ever accused the latter of being a hall of famer (except for when he played against the pirates)

Not a Hall of Famer, but he was pretty damn good. He was one of a group of players I associate with the early Abstracts, players of whom James was always saying that fans have no idea how good this guy is--Bobby Grich, Gene Tenace, Darrell Evans, Brian Downing, Jack Clark. His 1987 season was huge (helped along by a league-wide offensive blip).

Am I an idiot? I don’t remember a Soto.

mario soto, cincinnati reds

did he succumb to injuries? he had 4 straight years of ~250 innings, then poof, out of the majors at age 32

Mario Soto was incredible, he had a couple of massive years.

I also remember Steve Rogers and John Candelaria.

Along with Stieb, probably the best pitcher in baseball from '80 to '84. He went 5/-/9/2/6 in Cy Young voting, and the year he didn't place, the strike year, he was 12-9 (which I mention out of habit), 3.29, with very good peripheral stats. He must have blown his arm out, but I don't remember.

let us also reflect on dewey evans

*leans back in a creaky chair*

aw yes, dwight "the dewster" evans. i think he should be in the hall! he was good at pretty much everything (except running), played almost his whole career with the red sox (more games than any other player except for yaz), played in a big market, hit a bunch of home runs, won a bunch of gold gloves (a wonderful, fair award that means a lot)

would he qualify for this modern era ballot, though?

or sorry, the "today's game" ballot

Dwight Evans--who peaked at 10% and didn't make it to a fourth ballot--would be one of the first guys I'd put in among players who didn't get a fair hearing. The biggest obstacle he faced, I think, is that he peaked so late; a certain idea took hold early in his career, that he was the other guy behind Yastrzemski, Lynn, and Rice, great glove and not much offense, and then from '81-89 (with one off year), he just got better and better. He was one of the best players in his 30s from the past few decades.

And still the greatest play I've ever seen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeLpoYvA-MU

would he qualify for this modern era ballot, though?

How do you qualify? Is it just playing within a certain time frame, or do you have to fill out a form or something?

The Modern Baseball Era Committee chooses the candidates. they're supposed to choose players, umpires or executives who made a significant "contribution" during a certain era. in the case of the modern era, that's 1970-87, so maybe he'll get another shot next time the modern era vote comes up.

if Steinbush III gets in, it's time to waive in Bonds, Clemens, Shoeless Joe, Cicotte, Carl Mays, Rose, Sauron...

I think he's the only one on the VC ballot who *will* get in eventually ...

From 2009:
https://sports.theonion.com/derek-jeter-honored-for-having-fewer-hits-than-harold-b-1819571015

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4a/6d/ef/4a6defdd14174cf67ba64040014e5667.jpg

Baines, Luzinski, ?

Steve Kemp!

That's weird. I figured it had to do with RBI, checked and found out that Baines and Luzinski had 100+ in 1982, but Kemp ended up with 98. I guess the photo was taken sometime in September.

that's some pretty optimistic thinking on their part.

i thought it might have had to do with the 1983 White Sox reaching 100 wins, but not only did they only win 99 but Steve Kemp was on the Yankees that year.

also i always forget what a beast Luzinski was; i tended to file him in with guys like Gorman Thomas and Tony Armas, but he was a step above. immense power, hit for a decent average at his peak, walked a lot. finished second in the MVP race twice.

I'll cut-and-paste a bit of Posnanski's rundown:

Harold Baines (38.7 WAR) -- Professional hitter, almost 2,900 hits, 384 homers, professional hitter.

Albert Belle (40.1 WAR) -- Slugger, controversial, had a 50-homer, 50-double season, should have won an MVP but didn't, hip injury ended his career prematurely.

Joe Carter (19.6 WAR) -- RBI man, good guy, hit one of only two World Series walk-off homers, touch 'em all Joe.

Will Clark (56.5 WAR) -- Clayton Kershaw copied his swing, .300 hitter, six-me all-star, underappreciated.

Orel Hershiser (51.6 WAR) -- Bulldog, absurd 1988 season, won 200 games in his career, set consecutive scoreless inning record.

Davey Johnson -- Won everywhere as manager. Got fired everywhere as manager. His 42 homers in 1973 still a record for second basemen.

Charlie Manuel -- Ol Charlie, hitting genius, led Phillies to World Series crown and five consecutive division titles, made Jim Thome great.

Lou Piniella -- Sweet Lou, managed 1990 Reds to title, managed 2001 Mariners to 116 wins, feisty as hitter and skipper.

Lee Smith (29.4 WAR) -- Lee Arthur, in the first class of one-inning closers, set all-time saves record, intimidating nice guy.

I like the Freudian slip of "six-me all-star," so I left it in. Concur about Belle's non-MVP--one of the more mystifying picks of my lifetime. (Or worst...it's not like I'm actually mystified as to why Vaughn won.)

1995, never forget: Vaughn had 12 first-place votes, Belle had 11, Edgar had 4, and Jose Mesa had 1.

the top two guys in bWAR that year: Randy Johnson (8.6) and John Valentin (8.3)

Belle had a very good case in 1998 (as did A-Rod/Garciaparra/Jeter/Clemens) but i guess the voters figured Juan Gone was overdue for a second trophy.

I probably would have voted for Jeter that year.

i'm glad the hard-on MVP voters had for RBI and save dudes seems to have substantially diminished. Twenty years ago I suspect J.D. Martinez might have won the prize.

Jaffe on Utley and Mauer

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-cooperstown/

Posanski has Mussina #87 on his Top 100, with a long list of all his near-misses on the things that grab headlines--how many times he almost won 20, almost pitched a no-hitter, almost won the Cy, etc. I think he'll very likely get in this year: Rivera and Halladay, plus--four at a time has happened twice in the past four votes--Mussina and Edgar.

Two of the sabermetric favorites for induction: Lofton & Mussina.

My first impression ballot:

Bonds, Clemens & Rivera (possibly the best ever at their position)
Mussina, Schilling & Halladay (other pitchers)
Walker, Rolen, Manny & Andruw (other hitters)

wait, swap Edgar with Andruw :(

my guess: Edgar, Mussina, Rivera, Halladay

I also suspect after last year's results and with fewer legit candidates, there will be a major bump in votes for Walker and Rolen. Maybe not enough to get Walker into position for 2020 induction but decent enough. Schilling might get a bump too, but fuck him.

it'll be interesting to see how Todd Helton fares. if Walker doesn't get in, Helton has no chance.

i'll be interested to see how many votes andy pettitte gets, for a number of reasons

Through age 30:

Player A: 368 BB, 1072 H, 1356 TB, 333 RBI, 19.5 WAR
Player B: 263 BB, 539 H, 885 TB, 217 RBI, 19.1 WAR

if Walker doesn't get in, Helton has no chance

Agree--Walker was clearly the better player, I think.

Through age 30:

Player A: 368 BB, 1072 H, 1356 TB, 333 RBI, 19.5 WAR
Player B: 263 BB, 539 H, 885 TB, 217 RBI, 19.1 WAR

― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, November 19, 2018 6:49 PM (two hours ago)

pretty impossible to play this game without slash stats lol, & clearly they have very different defensive values

A is Omar Vizquel, and B is Edgar.

Suffice to say that Edgar did most of his damage in his thirties.