hall of fame, next vote...

Belle had a very good case in 1998 (as did A-Rod/Garciaparra/Jeter/Clemens) but i guess the voters figured Juan Gone was overdue for a second trophy.

I probably would have voted for Jeter that year.

i'm glad the hard-on MVP voters had for RBI and save dudes seems to have substantially diminished. Twenty years ago I suspect J.D. Martinez might have won the prize.

Jaffe on Utley and Mauer

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-cooperstown/

Posanski has Mussina #87 on his Top 100, with a long list of all his near-misses on the things that grab headlines--how many times he almost won 20, almost pitched a no-hitter, almost won the Cy, etc. I think he'll very likely get in this year: Rivera and Halladay, plus--four at a time has happened twice in the past four votes--Mussina and Edgar.

Two of the sabermetric favorites for induction: Lofton & Mussina.

My first impression ballot:

Bonds, Clemens & Rivera (possibly the best ever at their position)
Mussina, Schilling & Halladay (other pitchers)
Walker, Rolen, Manny & Andruw (other hitters)

wait, swap Edgar with Andruw :(

my guess: Edgar, Mussina, Rivera, Halladay

I also suspect after last year's results and with fewer legit candidates, there will be a major bump in votes for Walker and Rolen. Maybe not enough to get Walker into position for 2020 induction but decent enough. Schilling might get a bump too, but fuck him.

it'll be interesting to see how Todd Helton fares. if Walker doesn't get in, Helton has no chance.

i'll be interested to see how many votes andy pettitte gets, for a number of reasons

Through age 30:

Player A: 368 BB, 1072 H, 1356 TB, 333 RBI, 19.5 WAR
Player B: 263 BB, 539 H, 885 TB, 217 RBI, 19.1 WAR

if Walker doesn't get in, Helton has no chance

Agree--Walker was clearly the better player, I think.

Through age 30:

Player A: 368 BB, 1072 H, 1356 TB, 333 RBI, 19.5 WAR
Player B: 263 BB, 539 H, 885 TB, 217 RBI, 19.1 WAR

― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Monday, November 19, 2018 6:49 PM (two hours ago)

pretty impossible to play this game without slash stats lol, & clearly they have very different defensive values

A is Omar Vizquel, and B is Edgar.

Suffice to say that Edgar did most of his damage in his thirties.

upcoming HOF candidates that some people might make an argument for:

Jeter
Abreu
Giambi
Soriano
Konerko
Hudson
Buehrle
Hunter
A-Rod
Ortiz
Teixeira
Suzuki
Beltre
Mauer
Utley
Wright

Maybe I'm missing some here, idk. lots of these guys have absolutely zero chance of making it but even those guys have superficially impressive numbers to an extent.

I'd vote for A-Rod, Jeter, Ichiro, Beltre, and Utley from that list and none of the rest.

yeah that seems about right, and they will probably all go in at some point. ortiz is also a lock

I would put in Ortiz before I'd put in Utley, and that's a good test case of whether you think the HOF should be a strict numerical accounting--your WAR, essentially--or whether you think there's more to it that that. I'm not saying one approach or the other is correct. Utley's peak was so strong, he's 10 WAR ahead of Ortiz. But Utley didn't do a whole lot after his 2005-2009 peak--he doesn't fall of the map like Andruw Jones, but he's basically just another second baseman once he hits 31--while the non-WAR (narrative, intangible, call them whatever pejorative you want) arguments for Ortiz are pretty familiar by now.

i'd put in all of those plus Ortiz, a guy who has obviously been downgraded WAR-wise by never playing defense but i think it's slightly possible it underrates him a bit, he wasn't exactly an empty-calories hitter. he walked a lot, at his peak he scored a ton of runs, he hit for a very good average most of the time. he was no Frank Thomas (though during that three-year stretch from '04-'07 he wasn't that far off) and he's more borderline whereas Big Hurt was a clear shoo-in, but i would vote for him (assuming there was room for him on the ballot with that 10-player limit.) I suspect he's gonna wait a bit bc of the PED speculation, but I also don't think he's a Manny case. maybe more a Bagwell/Piazza one.

Utley's case is made tougher by that brief peak and it's a shame it was Placido Polanco time in Philly for his first couple seasons and he didn't get a full-time shot until a season in which he was 26 on opening day but at this point i also think he's an easy "yes."

would utley's HOF plaque say Chase "Dad" Utley?

JAWS has utley as the 11th-greatest 2B of all time, but i'm not sure how i feel about hof-ing by position -- or at least positions that aren't more demanding than 2B

obviously we *are* hof-ing by position if we've got trevor hoffman, but i don't find the 'everyone better than this one shitty hall of famer deserves enshrinement' argument terribly persuasive.

nevertheless i support a more expansive hall, so i'd vote jeter, a-rod, ortiz, ichiro, beltre, mauer. utley probably deserves it too; i just don't like him

i don't like Clemens either, but the HOF is a joke unworthy of my attention until he and BB get in.

i don't find the 'everyone better than this one shitty hall of famer deserves enshrinement' argument terribly persuasive.

Utley has a better WAR than 11 hall-of-fame 2Bs. His best 7 WAR seasons are on par with Ryne Sandberg. His career OPS+ is better than Roberto Alomar or Craig Biggio. To me, he should be in.

I wouldn't mind putting Ortiz in but there are a lot of sluggers coming up who have similar numbers and also played defense.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/harold-baines-and-lee-smith-voted-into-hall-of-fame-by-todays-game-committee/

These will not go over well.

Of the two, I can maybe see Smith, in that he held what was once viewed as a major record for 10+ years. It's hard to historically frame saves in relation to any other stat--I can't think of another one that was once considered really important and now is mostly ridiculed. Even pitcher wins and RBI have fared better.

I can't see Baines at all.

Weird: if you follow the link in this thread's original post (14 years ago), it's an ESPN roundtable where they bat around Lee Smith's chances a bit.

yikes. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_RF.shtml

free dwight evans

For years, Harold Baines has been my go-to punchline for players with deceptively good career stats who really weren't all that good.

Suddenly all the arguments over Jack Morris seem a little bit silly.

yeah when these committees are going to let just anyone in, it does make the BBWAA debates seem pointless

it's interesting to read some of the discussion on blyleven at the top of this thread -- obviously this was before WAR even was around. (I'd bet that alex in SF has changed his mind these days.) he did have a lot of passionate supporters at the time, and the arguments about 300 wins, particularly since he was so close to it anyway and given that he pitched for some pretty mediocre teams, seem especially dated now

Baines' best season as a composite--his career bests in every category:

2B - 39
3B - 10
HR - 29
R - 89 (never scored 90 runs in a season)
RBI - 113
BB - 73
BA - .311
OBP - .399
SLG - .541
OPS+ - .903
WAR - 4.3

(rate stats for seasons of 140+ games)

Even allowing that his prime years were in a pitcher's decade (the second half of his career was in a hitter's decade), that's gotta be about as ordinary as it gets for that kind of exercise.

this is so dumb, i suppose the best thing i can say about it is it'll maybe bring about some changes bc of how absurd it is. though i'm not gonna hold my breath.

worst selection since Jim Rice

not sure about Lee Smith either

start designing a plaque for Brett Gardner, he has played half as many seasons and has about the same bWAR, plus seven seasons of 3+ bWAR to Baines' two. And four seasons of 4+ bWAR to Baines' one.

i *like* Harold Baines but there should be a recall vote.

haha trout will pass baines + smith's combined WAR next year

jaffe: This is not to begrudge the man’s happiness upon being granted entry to the Hall. But Baines’ election is simply not a great day for the institution, or for anyone bringing an analytical, merit-based approach to it while reckoning with its objective standards. The precedent it sets is nearly unmanageable, if future committees are to take seriously candidates of his level. Why battle over Dale Murphy or Fred McGriff if Harold Baines is the standard?

Why battle over Dale Murphy or Fred McGriff if Harold Baines is the standard?

this is very true. also if you use it as a mantra you come to learn a fundamental truth about the universe

Lee Smith is really getting off easy today.

Al Oliver for HOF

here for your consideration, the 16 members of the angry democrats Today’s Game Era Committee:

Hall of Famers: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, Greg Maddux, Joe Morgan, John Schuerholz, Ozzie Smith, Joe Torre

Executives: Al Avila (Tigers), Paul Beeston (Blue Jays), Andy MacPhail (Phillies), Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox)

Media: Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau), Tim Kurkjian (ESPN), Claire Smith (ESPN)

Lee Smith is really getting off easy today.

True! He's suddenly the George W. Bush of HOF'ers.

A sampling of headlines:

Harold Baines' Hall of Fame selection sparks controversy and criticism
Harold Baines – and many others – ‘shocked’ by his Hall of Fame selection
Harold Baines: MLB hall of fame selection an embarrassment
Harold Baines is the most inexplicable Hall of Fame pick ever

I think publications should be a little careful with things like the last two (both Sports Illustrated). Harold Baines is a human being, and you don't need to take what is supposed to be a joyous day and outright humiliate the guy (from all accounts, a quiet, respected player) because 16 other people made a terrible choice. I think the first headline is sufficient.

lee smith isn't ideal, but unless you believe relievers are inherently unworthy, he's at least defensible

otoh it leads us down a very slippery slope toward Hall of Famer Joe Nathan

or John Franco

Jason Isringhausen for HOF

I'd say the guy who will benefit most from Smith's choice is Billy Wagner.

Smith, i disagree with – but i understand it's based in a different/older understanding of the game... but Baines?! BAINES?!?!? Even Baines thinks it's fucked up!

i am not against billy wagner's induction tbh

my memory of Harold Baines will always be how the ChiSox traded him to the Rangers, and he returned to play against them early in the season, and they retired his number before a game, and everyone was confused because a) the ceremony was pretty haphazard, and b) it was Harold Baines.