at the very least feel like the thread should be deindexed
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 14 November 2018 17:57 (one year ago) link
yeah just deindex it*
*i don't know who would do this or how it works
― Greta Van Fleek (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 14 November 2018 20:23 (one year ago) link
>>> i'll post this cuz i don't like to leave my guy lagoon high n dry and thirsting for drama.
however, feel like a mod should weigh in or an ILX illuminati elder
Durant vs. Draymond: Theories on why these two Warriors stars are feuding
Andre Iguodala is at his locker, in a locker room that’s emptied out earlier than usual. The nearby Kevin Durant space is conspicuously vacant. KD loves to talk, and usually lingers, riffing with teammates and reporters. Tuesday night he dressed quickly, gave a brief, sullen press conference and exited. In the press conference, when asked about his friendship with Draymond Green, Durant replied, “I don’t really think that even matters right now.”
I ask Andre if the Warriors can win with KD and Draymond at odds like this. Andre responds, “Shaq and Kobe ain’t like each other.”
Me: “But that ended in a way you wouldn’t want this to end, right?”
Andre: “They won three championships in a row. Ain’t that what you want to happen?”
Me: “I guess all things come to an end.”
Andre: “Everything come to an end.”
A dynasty is a fragile kind of dominance. That’s the paradox of ultimate victory. Once superiority is achieved, and achieved again, the game loses a certain internal logic. Why prove what’s proven? Why win what’s won? Invincibility is a holding pattern that can only remain so fulfilling. People, even the most competitive of people, are designed to chase goals, not maintain a grip on them in perpetuity.
That’s the backdrop of a more salacious circumstance, a gripping tale of how this dynasty might be unraveling. These are all meaningful parts of the story. The names, the dates, the feuds. It’s all very real right now, and suddenly. Seemingly out of nowhere, the Warriors revealed a situation perhaps beyond repair. And the internal slights matter, but one wonders if it could all be transcended if everyone felt the project worth repairing.
Two years ago, I wrote an article on this organization’s sometimes tempestuous relationship with Draymond Green. It was given the baity title, “Golden State’s Draymond Green Problem.” From my perspective, it wasn’t about how Draymond was a problem, but more about how he could tip the Warriors’ future in either direction.
Fast forward two championships.
Yesterday, people kept sending me this article, asking if current events are pertinent to its themes. Did yesteryear’s hyperbole prove prophetic?
My take? No, not necessarily. First, because championships two and three qualify as glorious successes. Second, because, much as we can parse Draymond’s actions, and much as they can cause strife, the current state of affairs speaks to something bigger than him, an issue he could perhaps mitigate but not solve: Winning isn’t enough.
Players talk about just wanting to win all the time. About the only player I’ve ever met who might actually, literally mean it is Steph Curry. Because winning isn’t done for its own sake. Winning is a means to certain ends. Beyond the camaraderie of collectively conquering a goal, beyond the money, there’s the adulation that comes with achievement. Winning correlates to winning at life, vastly increasing your status in the eyes of fans and peers alike.
Ask yourself: Has this obvious benefit of winning happened for Kevin Durant as a Warrior? Over the past two-plus seasons, perhaps the Warriors All-Star in need of the most adulation got the least adulation. His reputation is more or less what it was when he arrived. The man was incredible in back-to-back NBA Finals. Had he faltered, he would have been mocked in a manner only trumped by what LeBron James experienced in 2011. Lost in Monday night’s chaos was Clippers owner Steve Ballmer sidling onto the court to schmooze it up with Durant. He, like other owners this summer, offers to fill the void that winning did not. Also, note that Draymond has a view of such cajoling.
This might be a bigger issue than just Kevin Durant. The media landscape has changed. In the past, might made right, and winners were worshipped sans much nuance. Now, a social media-driven conversation picks apart historic accomplishments while basking in a perpetual present. Coming here and winning big was supposed to make KD the face of Nike. Instead, to many jaded fans, that swoosh looks like a coattail. The quaint idea that you can silence your critics with a trophy is just one of a million norms that have fallen by the wayside over the past few years.
This is the big problem for Warriors HQ, as they proclaim not to care about anything other than winning a championship this season. I’m not certain there’s a solution to Winner’s Ennui, but there are methods for recalibration. I have some thoughts on that, and I want to emphasize that they are my own. The thoughts are in contrast to what I’m being told, repeated assurances that, “This happens, Draymond does this, it’s happened before, etc.” Today’s turmoil can indeed be tomorrow’s footnote. This isn’t even the first time Draymond caused discord by calling someone a “bitch.” He did that to Steve Kerr back in 2016, when they were separated in the Oklahoma City locker room. It might have actually been the least vulgar thing Draymond said to Kerr in that exchange.
Anyway. The most interesting comment in Kerr’s pregame press conference Tuesday was perhaps the most boring, superficially. When asked to describe the relationship between Kevin Durant and Draymond Green, Kerr said:
“They have won championships together, they have been teammates now for three seasons and they were teammates on the Olympic team. You can draw your own conclusions.”
Not exactly a ringing endorsement of a brotherly bond. Not exactly a reaffirmation of what brought them together. Whatever is happening could pass, but whatever is happening is not being treated like it will. And that is rather strange.
Kerr and Bob Myers are not stupid men. They levied this suspension, knowing it would escalate a situation that could otherwise be dealt with in private. They knew this could seriously alienate Draymond. There’s broad agreement within the organization that Draymond crossed a line, but the public punishment is curious. It’s not a move that makes a lot of sense in a vacuum.
Unless there are other forces at play. Draymond Green will be 30 years old when he’s up for his next contract, which would be a $226 million super max in 2020 if he had his druthers. Draymond turned down a more modestly priced three-year extension in pursuit of a bigger prize. He is an amazing basketball player, who’s still underrated. You could see him continuing a career of defying NBA odds well into his 30s. Then again, not everybody buys this trajectory. Some within the Warriors might note that NBA longevity correlates with size, and shooting, neither exactly an advantage for Mr. Green.
The Warriors will never replace what Draymond Green has meant to them, but they could get a good starter at a third of the price going forward. You think Joe Lacob is unaware of this? And if losing Draymond is the cost of keeping KD? Lacob’s choice is obvious, emotions be damned. Of course, losing both players is, theoretically, the worst of all worlds, and a real possibility in this high stakes poker game. But the cost of paying these salaries keeps rising and there’s still an open question as to whether the Warriors want Draymond at the price he sees fit. That question would be open even if KD left. One wonders if this current catastrophe presents its own opportunity, its own pretext. As another Master of Coin once said, “Chaos is a ladder.”
Again, Draymond Green isn’t the problem. Winner’s Ennui is the problem. Sadly, there’s no solution to this problem but to shake up the roster, as recalibration can serve as its own challenge. Perhaps that means letting KD leave for New York or wherever else and recapturing a “Strength in Numbers” ethos. That’s likely not the outcome Lacob favors, even if Draymond is his guy. Two superstars are still better than one.
Iguodala is right when he says, “Everything come to an end,” but the owner of this team wants to end “the end” and reign over this league forever. That’s great for Warriors fans, insofar as an impossible aspiration can be maintained for a while. For individual players, perhaps not so much. Hard calls must be made, and feelings suppressed. The future is uncertain for a team that remains title favorites. Draymond might not be the problem, but the Warriors showed the world that he might be Kevin Durant’s problem. Perhaps it’s a last ditch effort to impress the seriousness of this situation upon a man who has meant so much to this franchise. That would be the more innocent read. It’s possible, even within the bounds of a business that remains jagged and brutal. As Kerr says, “You can draw your own conclusions.”
— Reported from Oakland
― Greta Van Fleek (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 14 November 2018 20:25 (one year ago) link
Reading that first article I can't help but think Draymond's self-defense amounts to:
Yeah, big deal, so I fucked up and stepped way over a line that I shouldn't have, disrespecting my teammate. Sure, I expect to be punished for that, but quietly and maybe have to cough up a bit of pocket change in the way of a fine, and now it's so UNFAIR that I was slapped down hard in public -- even though I slapped KD just as hard and just as publically. And *ouch* that's a lot of money! Why'd they hafta do that to ME?!
iow, just a lot of bullshit self-regarding
― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, 14 November 2018 20:36 (one year ago) link
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 14 November 2018 21:00 (one year ago) link
ok i just dropped a hundo subscribing to the athletic and espn+ lol god bless im a responsible content consumer now, let me know if u need any draft info pasted here
― lag∞n, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:14 (one year ago) link
oh nice may need some + content at some point
― Spottie, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:17 (one year ago) link
i hate paying the mouse but my status as a draft thought leader has been eroded by lack of insider access
― lag∞n, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:19 (one year ago) link
(feel good abt paying the athletic)
― lag∞n, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:20 (one year ago) link
― Spottie, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:20 (one year ago) link
Lagoon your thought leader status must be preserved at all costs
― The Poppy Bush AutoZone (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:33 (one year ago) link
im glad were on the same page here
― lag∞n, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:35 (one year ago) link
lagoons thought leader status is critical to maintain if ilh wants to have synergy with its core competencies and best practices, and of course to remain the omni channel king of hoops
― Spottie, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:39 (one year ago) link
its mission critical to our brand identity and product market fit
― lag∞n, Thursday, 15 November 2018 19:41 (one year ago) link
― lag∞n, Thursday, November 15, 2018 2:14 PM (six hours ago)
I for one welcome our new content overlords. I too have subscribed to this great online service
― k3vin k., Friday, 16 November 2018 02:04 (one year ago) link
someone post please:
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 19:49 (one year ago) link
Where does the NBA's MVP race stand nearly two months into the 2018-19 season?
It's never too early for MVP narratives to take hold, as what was once a topic for the spring now has become a season-long discussion. And indeed, betting markets and straw polls suggest that Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo is the early MVP leader on the strength of his team's surprising start, with LeBron James the other leading contender in pursuit of his fifth Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
Yet narratives don't always match statistical reality, so let's ponder some of the big questions about the MVP with the help of advanced metrics, including whether Giannis is the right front-runner.
Can a center be most valuable?The leaderboards in most advanced stats at this early stage have a decidedly tall slant. Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player (VORP), for example, rates six centers and four other players listed as power forwards (one of them is Kevin Durant, who has actually played more minutes at small forward) among the league's top 14 players. Meanwhile, the PER leaderboard -- once we've filtered out low-minutes players -- is even more heavily tilted toward the frontcourt, with 19 centers in the top 30, including reserves Montrezl Harrell, Nerlens Noel, Jakob Poeltl, Dwight Powell, Domantas Sabonis and Jonas Valanciunas.
These results reflect a topic I addressed ahead of the NBA draft: Because the floor is so well spaced, it's never been easier to get productive play from centers. Indeed, consider the average PER by position (as defined by Basketball-Reference) weighted by minutes played:
Avg. PER (Weighted For Minutes)POS PERPG 14.7SG 13.1SF 13.0PF 14.9C 19.6Across all positions, the average PER is always set to 15.0. However, that varies widely across positions now, with centers naturally dominant and wings much weaker. It's not just the very best centers who are most productive, but also the ones who are cheaply available to teams -- including Noel and JaVale McGee, both of whom are in the top 30 in PER after signing one-year deals for the veteran's minimum as free agents this summer.
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When we're determining value, then, position has to be taken into account. To be as relatively valuable on a per-minute basis as a small forward with a 25.6 PER (like Kawhi Leonard), a center would need a PER of 32.2 -- something that's never been achieved in NBA history.
In other words, it's probably not possible for the best center in 2018-19 to be more valuable than the best wing player, which has important implications for the MVP chances of not only Joel Embiid (who's not actually among those high-rated centers, ranking 17th in PER and 26th in VORP) but also Anthony Davis (mostly -- though perhaps not exclusively -- a center).
Should Giannis be the front-runner?Although I used PER over average to make that point, the better way to define value in the context of MVP is as compared to replacement level -- the production we'd expect from a free agent signed for the minimum salary -- so as to properly credit players for their durability.
My wins above replacement player (WARP) metric now reflects a much higher level of replacement for centers, and to a lesser extent power forwards, as compared to wings in particular. With that adjustment, here's how WARP ranks this year's most valuable players (projected to 82 team games so as not to disadvantage players whose teams have played fewer games thus far).
2018-19 WARP LeaderboardPLAYER TEAM PS WARP/82LeBron James LAL F 19.2James Harden HOU G 19.2Kevin Durant GSW F 18.3Paul George OKC SF 17.1Damian Lillard POR PG 17.0Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL PF 16.5Kyrie Irving BOS PG 16.2Kemba Walker CHA PG 15.2Anthony Davis NOP C 14.1Mike Conley MEM PG 13.5Projected to 82 team gamesWhile LeBron tops this list, surprisingly it's last year's winner who's in a virtual tie with him. James Harden's stat line is basically identical to what he posted in 2017-18, but because his Houston Rockets have stumbled to an 11-12 start after winning a league-best 59 games last season, he's gotten zero attention as a possible repeat candidate. It will be interesting to see whether that changes if the Rockets turn things around. Damian Lillard, whose Portland Trail Blazers have fallen off after a strong start, is in a similar position after finishing fourth in last season's MVP voting.
The most interesting MVP candidate that position-adjusted WARP identifies is Paul George, who also ranks third in wins produced based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), which isn't adjusted by position. George has played a key role in the Oklahoma City Thunder's league-leading defensive rating and has helped keep their offense afloat with 2016-17 MVP Russell Westbrook missing eight games. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Oklahoma City's offensive rating drops to a dismal 94.7 points per 100 possessions with George on the bench.
Those takeaways noted, let's dig deeper into the comparison between Giannis, LeBron and KD -- only two of whom can make the All-NBA first team because they all play forward. Why does Antetokounmpo lag behind the other two stars?
The first reason is the lower replacement level at small forward, where Cleaning the Glass estimates James has played 66 percent of his minutes and Durant 65 percent as opposed to 12 percent of Antetokounmpo's minutes.
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The Lakers' positionless lineups show the challenge in using position to determine value. Cleaning the Glass considers LeBron the small forward when he plays alongside power forward Kyle Kuzma, but in practice the defensive matchups with those lineups depend more on the opponent than any rigid position. And offensively, James tends to operate more as a point guard (particularly during Rajon Rondo's absence, as ESPN's Brian Windhorst recently broke down) than as a forward.
However, I think Durant's example reinforces the importance of positional replacement level. His ability to defend small forwards has allowed the Warriors to start Jonas Jerebko -- another big man who's excelled while making the veteran's minimum -- at the 4 in Draymond Green's absence rather than going deeper into their weak wing rotation.
The other key factor here is minutes played. Not only has Giannis missed a game due to injury, he's playing fewer minutes per game (33.8) than either LeBron (34.8) or KD (35.7), meaning Milwaukee has relied slightly more on its bench than those teams. While the difference isn't dramatic, along with position it helps explain why Antetokounmpo can rate better on a per-minute basis than James and Durant, yet still land behind them in terms of value.
When it comes to RPM, Antetokounmpo is actually third of the group in terms of per-possession rating and just 12th overall in RPM wins. As a result, I don't think Giannis should be considered the MVP front-runner based on advanced stats.
How many games does Curry need to play? How about Kawhi?Though playing time is a relatively small difference between the MVP front-runners, it's a huge factor for Stephen Curry (who has missed 11 of Golden State's 26 games) and a large one for Leonard (he's missed six of 26). When Harden won last season, the 10 games he missed were the most for an MVP since Allen Iverson (11) in 2000-01. That would basically imply Curry can't miss any more time and have a chance to win.
However, history should be considered a guide rather than a hard-and-fast rule, as Westbrook winning the MVP on a 47-win team offers a recent reminder that voters can always rethink MVP tradition. So instead, let's ponder the question of how many games Steph and Kawhi would need to play to be most valuable statistically. If we flip the leaderboard to WARP per 82 player games rather than team games, Curry shoots (pun intended) to the top:
2018-19 WARP LeaderboardPLAYER TEAM PS WARP/GStephen Curry GSW PG 22.4James Harden HOU SG 22.1LeBron James LAL PF 19.2Kevin Durant GSW PF 18.3Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL PF 17.3Kawhi Leonard TOR SF 17.2Paul George OKC SF 17.1Damian Lillard POR PG 17.0Kyrie Irving BOS PG 17.0Russell Westbrook OKC PG 16.8Per 82 games playedNonetheless, in part because he's played just 33.3 minutes per game, Curry will be hard-pressed to lead the league in WARP. Harden would beat him if they both played the remainder of the schedule at their current pace, and LeBron's 82-game pace isn't far behind. Voters might be willing to reward Curry even if he's slightly less valuable if it's strictly due to injury, but he can't miss many more games.
Since he hasn't been as dominant when he's played, Leonard's task is even more difficult. While he cracks the top 10 on a per-player game basis, Kawhi is still behind both Giannis and LeBron and would have to rely on the narrative power of leading the Raptors to the NBA's best record. They're currently three games up on the Denver Nuggets for that honor, with the Warriors four games back.
Curry staying healthy the rest of the season might actually have more impact on other candidates for MVP than his own hopes. If Golden State surges ahead of Toronto with Curry (the Warriors are 12-3 in games he's played this season and 5-6 without him), that could hurt Leonard's candidacy. It also becomes a lot more difficult for voters to pick Durant if he's not even the most valuable player on his own team -- something that was evident when Golden State struggled early on in Curry's absence, though it did give Durant the opportunity to put the team on his back during the Warriors' final four games without Curry, when they went 3-1 with an overtime loss in Toronto.
Whether Curry can stay healthy the rest of the season is just one of the many questions to be answered about the MVP race, which should still be considered wide open with more than two-thirds of the season left to be played.
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 December 2018 20:02 (one year ago) link
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 20:11 (one year ago) link
love my adidads celtoes— Les Alizés Dénudés (@Marco0o0os) December 7, 2018
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 December 2018 20:16 (one year ago) link
oh damn, great minds etc.
mine is pulled from:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLcN_rzouEI
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 20:19 (one year ago) link
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 December 2018 20:21 (one year ago) link
pete rock >>>>> premo
― The Poppy Bush AutoZone (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 7 December 2018 20:49 (one year ago) link
alright lets MFN DO THIS lol
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 December 2018 20:50 (one year ago) link
I LOVE that album btw.
not sure i'd go that far xp but it's pretty close! poll it!
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 20:55 (one year ago) link
tube amp warm glow vibeshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fdUr9mClegU
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 20:58 (one year ago) link
cool pete rock song imo
― lag∞n, Friday, 7 December 2018 21:00 (one year ago) link
thats warm too. v good
― Celtoes Adidas (Spottie), Friday, 7 December 2018 21:10 (one year ago) link
― J0rdan S., Friday, 14 December 2018 17:12 (one year ago) link
On the road with an NBA spy: The grinding work and lifestyle of an advance scout
Ethan Strauss Dec 12, 2018 78 “Goddammit! Fucking shit! Would you look at this fucking guy!” Our scout is pointing at a portly man who stands between us and the escalator pathway. This is the truest enemy he knows. Our scout is never present for when the team that employs him faces a rival franchise. His only rivals are those who thwart arrivals on the league’s loneliest trail.
Every night features the arena’s stimulus overload, the roaring crowd, honking hype men and jangling music. His work ends in the wee hours of the morning, in a hotel, poring over film. It’s disorienting. My brain broke from merely observing. Details started blurring. I nearly missed a flight due to a dead certainty that my hotel was attached to the airport. Wrong, my brain was holding on to what had been true the night before, in a different city.
The problem was, I had no system for whatever this lifestyle is, not like our scout had. He was on a well-worn path. Our scout did not see the North American landscape as a collection of cities to be enjoyed, each with their own character and customs. No, he saw this terrain through the portals of his convenience. This city’s tram gets you to the hotel from the airport. This city’s skyways shield you from the cold. New York’s “N” train is all you really need to know about. Turn here. Down this hall.
The man is a travel sherpa, guiding you through the chaos of the ambling crowd. Every movement is propulsive. Every movement smoothly assertive, at least until those damned people get in the way. There’s a mini human traffic jam as we step onto an airport tram. “Folks who try and get on before everyone exits piss me off,” he mutters. You wouldn’t know from the running commentary, but this man is not a misanthrope. He’s actually quite kind, considerate even. He keeps looking out for me as I blithely lose myself in more crowds than Waldo. The road may have taken this man’s patience, but it hasn’t stolen his soul.
“Anyone flying to New York?!” a sharply dressed guy shouts to the tram passengers. There’s a gleam in the stranger’s eye, one that stays burning despite the lack of response. “Anyone flying to New York?!” He then asks our scout for the time and gets a blank stare. We exit the tram.
“Con artist,” our scout says. “I’ve seen it before. My job is to size things up.” The con artist, if he is a con artist, would be employing a predatory strategy called, “Forced Teaming,” as coined by Gavin de Becker in his bestselling book, “The Gift of Fear.” Good luck trying that on a professional lone wolf.
We keep walking, his steps always a few in front of my own. He’s as excited about Toronto’s tram to downtown as he was fearful of delays at customs (“You never know when there’s some damned Canadian holiday!”). Our schedule is always calibrated to hit ports of entry at the point of minimal crowding. “You see, if we were here in the morning …” is a common refrain.
Our scout is a middle-aged man who has been at this longer than seems sustainable. His specific trade is “advance scouting,” or NBA spying to put it in layman’s terms. He sits as close as possible to coaches and intercepts their play calls for upwards of 150 road games per season. Though this is the job description, it’s a less than clandestine existence. Teams know who he is, why he is there and even provide him the credentials. It’s part of NBA culture: Everyone is allowed to do this and may the best spies win.
Our scout is regarded as one of the best. Though his job is difficult and highly routinized, he made an exception for a slight detour. After my article on NBA spies garnered more interest from readers than anticipated, our scout wondered if I might delve deeper. I had only cracked the surface here. To understand this life, I had to live it, just a bit.
So, I would trail this member of a monastic sports caste. I would see how he fights for a team absent the camaraderie supposedly essential to team competition. It would be six games in seven nights, which by the way, is a merciful slice of schedule. Our scout has done 13 road games in 13 nights before. It’s not like merely high-level business travel, the kind represented by George Clooney’s “Up in the Air” character. This way is a blast furnace aimed at all your senses, interspersed with moments of crushing solitude.
So why does he do this?
The Rosetta StoneOne reason is because, unlike so many people, he can do this. The job requires a certain visio-spatial acuity. While walking briskly to an arena, our scout self-assesses, “I believe I might be on the spectrum.” I cannot offer a free diagnosis but can conclude that he’s capable of things that, to my mind, read as incredible.
At a hotel, we flip the TV to the end of a game involving a team he had recently seen in person. I ask for a running commentary of a crunch-time play, which our scout obliges, augmented by quick gesticulations. “They did this in the game we were at. These two guys are going to scissors off this pick. He’s going to cut to that corner, he’s going to cut to that corner. He’s going to pin that guy to the top. And then high pick-and-roll.” Boom. Boom. Boom. The play unfolds as predicted.
Our scout can tell us what’s going to happen before it happens, with the reliability of a “Minority Report” precog, and that’s even without the benefit of seeing the coach’s hand signal. One wonders how much a team could improve if all its players somehow magically absorbed this knowledge. Instead, teams settle for a more realistic reduction of this vast database, specifically tailored to each opponent, taught in film session to the roster, game by game.
Right now, our scout is deep into his hotel room routine, the work he does in addition to the report he sends from the arena. He’s typing away on Fast Draw, the league’s favored play diagramming software. The program is the evolutionary descendent of the days when IBM, as a major NBA sponsor, manufactured something to get NBA coaches toting ThinkPads on the sidelines in nationally televised games. Unfortunately for IBM, computer-based play diagramming, like writing, was always meant for solitude. The whiteboard just wouldn’t relinquish its grip as the public face of strategy.
Spurs coach Gregg Popovich uses a whiteboard to draw up a play against the Warriors. (File photo from 2013: Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images)Once all the plays are drawn, our scout adds the personnel report (statistics, depth chart, top plays and player tendencies). Finally, the capper, a written report with offensive and defensive notes, which normally includes the future opponent’s top-play frequencies. In his room, “call sheets” are strewn across the table, records of team plays with their corresponding coach’s hand signals. I ask for the Warriors’ records, since I want to learn about the team I supposedly know all about. “It can’t be that much material,” I say, “Considering how many of their offense is transition play.”
He plunks the file down with a thud.
“Here, take a look, I don’t give a shit,” he says. “It ain’t our team’s secrets.”
Before me lies the intellectual framework of the Steve Kerr era, represented in the NBA’s version of hieroglyphics. Everything I theoretically knew, or at least saw at some point, has been chronicled for a particular kind of posterity. Or perhaps more accurately, this is Kerr’s basketball 23andMe results, a genealogy of thought. There are over 100 plays, with tally marks to indicate frequency. I ask to know where all this comes from. What can we divine of Kerr’s influences while leafing through these pages? Our scout starts rattling off what he sees.
“Hmm, all the Weak and Strong series is Gregg Popovich. All the Pop clones run Strong and Weak. Another big one is Doc Rivers, by way of Alvin Gentry, ’cause Alvin was his first lead assistant. Dribble, Drag, Backdoor is 100 percent from Doc Rivers. The Floppy series is from Pat Riley. He never played for Pat, but that got around the league. His Loop series is Popovich. His Pistol series, originally known as the 21 series, is Mike D’Antoni. His Pick-and-Roll series is called ‘Rub,’ and that’s from Popovich. He and Pop both rub their chests when they call that, but Pop sort of does it like he’s straightening his tie. Kerr also has a Slice series and that’s definitely from Doc Rivers. His Wedge series is Pop.”
I’m not hearing one name in particular. Whenever I followed the Warriors to New York, their local media would obsessively ask about then Knicks president Phil Jackson, hoping to draw some connection between Kerr and his former Hall of Fame coach. They often asked some version of, “Are you running the Triangle?”
“To be honest, looking through this playbook, I don’t see anything from Phil Jackson,” our scout concludes. “Not one damned thing.”
To be fair, there is at least one damned Phil Jackson thing in the Warriors repertoire: an out of bounds play called “What The Fuck” that dates back to the Bulls days. Perhaps there are some other plays, here and there. But in general, Jackson’s strategic influence on Kerr appears dwarfed by some coaches Kerr never even played for or worked with. Maybe Jackson’s impact is more subjective and generalized. Maybe the Zen Master’s legacy is a more abstract echo, like the loudest of one-handed claps.
Popovich’s legacy looms largest, perhaps over the league and certainly over Kerr’s whiteboard. Pop’s “Weak Roll,” a play that gets the ball moving side to side, is an absolute favorite of Kerr’s. Our scout chuckles about Kerr’s proclivity with that one. He pictures the coach rubbing his hands together in glee like Monty Burns at the mere prospect of calling this play. “Ah yes, yes, Weak Roll,” our scout intones with a grin. He’s not necessarily against the predictable nature of coaches, but he does find it amusing on occasion. “Lemme tell you something. Nobody, and I mean nobody, is a creature of habit like NBA coaches are.”
How it worksTime is of the essence because there’s a lot of work that needs doing. When I look over our scout’s shoulder, I’m watching a chain reaction. Minutes after the buzzer, he’s sending his work to the organization for processing and later, implementation. It’s a process by which thousands of miles and many hours of effort will get condensed down to a 6-8 minute video that our scout will never see.
Here’s how the chain works, the exact process by which your favorite teams prepare for battle. Our scout flies to a game featuring a team (let’s call them the Kings) that’s say, two games away on the schedule from playing his own. Ideally, he is granted a courtside seat, “the down seat” in scout parlance. Armed with a pen and a laptop, he watches closely and listens carefully, with extra focus on Kings coach Dave Joerger, a “pain in the ass” who’s liable to obscure his play calls from prying eyes. Our scout spends all game looking for visual and vocal representations of plays, followed by the plays themselves. A call of “fist up!” paired with the making of a fist reads easy enough, for instance. Or it would, anyway, if “fist” had a universal meaning.
NBA coaches have a tendency to use the same visual terms (fist, horns, thumb) to mean all manner of different things. It’s as though everyone speaks the same language, but nobody means the same thing when they speak it. The same holds true for defensive calls, which, unlike offensive calls, tend to be colors (“red,” “blue,” etc.) rather than visual representations. With an uncommon understanding of this Tower of Babel, our scout types the visual call, vocal call and resulting action into his “call sheet.” The pen is for noting new plays and frequencies of plays. The buzzer finally sounds and it’s time to quickly send this information to the video coordinators for tagging purposes.
Back at Team HQ, a video guy has stashed a few games of the upcoming opponent “in his editor,” most likely in a program called SportsCode. He’s working on a refining process, purging these games of random, useless filler, preparing a reel for the assistant coach tasked with the Kings matchup. “The video guy will go through and remove all the crap plays, the garbage, maybe they didn’t run something right,” our scout says. “He’ll clean all of that out and what he’ll give the assistant coach is all of the actual plays.” There’s an optimal kind of play to feature, with an eye towards the motivations of athletes. “Preferably, the play is an example of proper execution. We tend to want examples where they score. We want to play up the fear to the guys.”
With the assistance of our scout, the video guy now can tag these plays according to their names and visual representations. It’s one thing for your players to see tendencies and another to know they’re coming, when they’re coming. Watch for this next time you’re at a game in person, because the television vantage rarely picks it up. Often when the camera is trained on the after basket inbounds, a defensive player is out of view, on the other side of the court, gesticulating the offense’s next play to his teammates.
Steve Kerr uses a hand signal to call a play during a Warriors game in Utah earlier this season. (Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images)Before such information can take root, it must be prepared, reduced down to a digestible size. In further consultation with the assistant coach, the video guy produces that 6-8 minute video of the opponent’s most common plays, to be shown in morning shootaround and again in pregame. This video serves as the basis for morning “walk-through,” when players are physically guided through their strategy preparations. “Normally the video edit is going to highlight two examples of the opponent’s top plays, and include maybe a dozen to 15 plays total,” our scout says. “At walk-through, you might physically go through a half dozen of the most important ones.”
The point of walk-through isn’t just to key your players on what to watch out for, but also to specifically prepare them for such actions with an organized defense. It’s a process that got more granular with time, fit according to whatever talent you’re facing. “Back in the day, there was ‘The Rule of Nowitzki,’” our scout recalls. “You had to adjust to defend him. The real key to this is not just identifying who they are. As soon as you get that call, not only do you need to know what’s coming, but also how to stop it.”
Scout’s honorWe are in a hotel lobby, with a younger scout from another team. We sit near the bar, but not at the bar. They haven’t the time for drinks but commiserate a bit over the college game playing in the background. Finally, as our scout gets ready to leave, the younger scout asks, “Hey, did you get all the plays tonight?” Younger scout missed a few and our scout is happy to help. This is part of the culture, in the way that offering lecture notes to a friend in college might have been part of yours.
Oftentimes, in the bowels of an NBA arena, two scouts from different franchises meet in a conspiracy against the home team. It’s a common sight if you know what to look for. You might be in Brooklyn, in the media room, watching the Pacers scout and Wizards scout at one table, trading secrets on how to foil the Nets next week. As the ancient proverb goes, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” In that media room, these scouts are brothers-in-arms, united in purpose against a common enemy. That is, until the Nets scout and the Wizards scout find each other in Indiana’s arena, both looking down the barrel at an upcoming Pacers game. Then it’s time to forge a new, convenient bond.
Collegiality has its limits. In Memphis, a seat next to our scout goes wanting. It was allotted to another team’s scout who never bothered to show. We have it on good authority that this scout got trashed the night before and decided to sleep this game away. Though this is a job often given to grinders, it’s also a spot where fringe NBA characters can get stashed on a part-time basis. Sometimes, it’s just a place for coaches to get a buddy a gig.
That’s fine and well, so long as such people don’t expect any help. Our scout sees the slacker at the airport the next day. On the plane, he gets approached and queried on whether he got all the plays. “How’d you make out?” the truant scout asks. He adds that he was there but bought a game ticket because he just wanted a better angle. This is bullshit. In Memphis, scouts tend to get the courtside seat and last night was no exception. He would know this if he actually showed up to work. “I did OK,” our scout says curtly. That reply effectively ends the conversation.
“I would have helped him if he just admitted he got bombed,” our scout says. Then he mutters, “serves them right for hiring a regional scout.”
The professional advance scouts largely look down on regional scouting, a system by which teams outsource scouting to hired guns in certain cities, some of whom are employed by multiple NBA teams. It was a system popularized by Popovich in the mid-2000s, theoretically out of mercy for the league’s most brutal profession. There was also some sense to Pop’s push back then. That era’s top Western Conference teams featured known quantities like Jackson, Jerry Sloan and Rick Adelman. Why grind some poor soul into dust when you already have so much information on these veteran coaches? The West has since been shaken up, but Pop’s reform lingers. Our scout believes the system is less reliable. “I can’t trade notes with a regional scouts. You never know if what they’re getting is right.”
Though Popovich might have undermined advance scouting as a profession, head coaches are the traditional allies of NBA spies. General managers and assistant GMs don’t tend to feel similarly. After I published my initial article on advance scouting, I received pushback from staffers in the GM camp. They weren’t sold on such spycraft mattering in the end.
“That sounds like GMs,” our scout says, when I relay this. “We can’t do shit for a GM. Their reputation is based on making a big personnel move. It’s the coaches who have an appreciation for us busting our asses on the road to get them what they need.” Whatever the merits of either perspective, this much is true, politically: The advance scout is yet another salary under the coaching aegis, rather than capital devoted to a GM’s cause.
Trade madeOur scout is inhaling a mound of vanilla ice cream, a guilty pleasure in Philly, which features one of the lesser credentialed guest meals. When asked why he’s not fat, given his lifestyle, our scout shrugs and says, “genes. And a lot of walking.” A younger staffer from his team happens to be at his table, looking at Twitter. “We made a trade!” the young guy says, having just learned the breaking news from social media. Our scout shrugs and offers that he wishes they’d do a deal for a younger player who’d been struggling. “What have you got to lose?!”
I ask if anyone from the team is calling. No, our scout’s phone is not blowing up. He’s not getting an inside scoop on how this all went down. On personnel decisions, he is out of sight, out of mind, a far off satellite that delivers perpetual information, tethered to his home planet by the most tenuous of gravitational tugs. This won’t change his job at all. He keeps eating.
The team that pays his salary seems to almost exist in a parallel universe. Our scout is never there for the games he studies for. When I hopped on the road with him, I looked in anticipation to his team’s upcoming game against the opponent he was spying on. We traveled thousands of miles following this prey, as he stalked them as the most dedicated hunter. When that game finally arrived, I had to remind our scout that it was in progress. We were at yet another game, in yet another arena, and he was tracking a new foe. “I hope my work helps, but there isn’t enough time to live and die with the game results,” he says. Our scout was already a few days in the future, the only place he truly resides. A glance at his laptop is a peek through a rear view mirror, where the present reads more like a quickly disappearing past than a moment the world lives in.
People have a finite amount of attention and this is certainly the case for our scout. He needs to prioritize, taking exactly what he needs in the moment and leaving everything else. When you’re, say, spying on both coaches in one game, basic game details slip away. “Often, I can’t tell you if one team is up by 40 or down by 40,” he says. Our scout is only fixated on what teams are running, a focus on process that fully eclipses results. In the end, our scout lives inside this riddle: He watches games but does not see the score and he prepares for games he does not see at all. Such is life in the alternate time space.
Dog, houseHis house is nice, if a little unkempt. Good neighborhood, two stories. There’s water damage that he might fix if he were ever here long enough. When I arrive it’s darkly lit but for the radiant energy generated by his loyal four-legged companion, a buoyant yellow lab. Scout dog is back from day care and thrilled to see his nomadic man. The grizzled scout takes a soothing tone with the dog, whispering baby talk to the happy beast. After we leave the house, our scout says, “I gotta be honest. If it was most people in the river and my dog, I’m saving my dog.” He now takes the dog on the rare, close road trip. Certain hotels have more relaxed restrictions than others. I’m told the dog makes connections with hotel workers faster than our scout ever did. The road is less lonely with a dog, not just due to the companionship, but also because strangers seem to offer more of their humanity in the presence of an animal.
Beyond his evident popularity, scout dog provides stability in a life on the go. Not everybody can or would keep up. Our scout is single, his longest romantic relationship having lasted eight years. Our scout has plenty of friends, though, especially in the basketball business. They see him all the time, just not so much in person. His phone regularly pings with the same kind of text message: a photo of our scout on TV, seated courtside, staring with a coldness that could make a rink out of hardwood. As he shows me the latest such text, he smiles widely, and suddenly looks unrecognizable from the haunted visage on the phone.
Our scout achieved a measure of emotional fulfilment when his team won the NBA championship. It was the culmination of a career, and moreover, just plain fun. Unlike everyone else, he got to relax a bit through the process, as his side of the preparation was largely done. He got to watch the games with his own team for once. He wasn’t out on the road by himself for once. And then, there was the thrill of ultimate victory and the quiet satisfaction in knowing you pitched in.
Except, that night, the euphoria had an undercurrent. “My celebration was kind of, you know, muted,” our scout remembers, with a grimace. That girlfriend of eight years had finally left him, weeks before the championship, for someone else. It was all fairly predictable. How can you share a life with someone who’s never there? How can you plan for the future with a man who lives entirely in an alternate time space? When asked if he has any regrets regarding multiple relationships this job undermined, our scout is steadfast. “No. Basketball was all I ever wanted to do.”
Why? That part is less clear. He was in love with the game growing up, so much so that he traded away certainty for whatever this is. He was premed at a top-flight college, only to ditch it all when a college coaching opportunity came up. He never looked back. “If you could have told me, back then, that I’d be working in the NBA? Shit. Of course I’d do it all again.”
What is the reward system for such labor? It used to be clearer. One of his happiest memories and biggest accomplishments happened long ago, back when he was working as a college assistant coach. He prepared like hell for an undefeated Duke team, despite his squad’s lack of a realistic chance. The college game is simpler, with not as much strategy altered according to opponent. Our scout had some different ideas for big, bad Duke, suggesting pick-and-roll coverages, fit according to the offensive threat. Nothing groundbreaking, but unexpected at that level.
Duke was caught unaware. The Blue Devils shot poorly, got somewhat unlucky and lost. The upset unleashed bedlam in the college town. Our scout went to a bar his friends often frequented, taking in the crazy scene he knew he had a secret hand in causing. A woman he was hooking up with at the time approached him. She did not mince words. They would be getting together later that night. “That felt pretty good,” our scout says, reminiscing.
Life is a bit different these days. When victory happens, there is no bedlam and no visceral spoils. It’s usually hundreds of miles away and hardly registered. Winning and its rewards have been traded for the process that once secured that massive victory over Duke. Now that our scout is older, this process not only remains but sustains. “I like the work,” he says. At least it remains constant.
The end“Go! Go! Go!” Our scout is exhorting me into the car with the verve of a NASCAR pit crew member. This will be our last trip, and unfortunately, it will be a hurried adventure. He’s running late and the streets are choked with weekend festival-goers. After struggling with the trunk, I leap into the front seat and suddenly feel my face engulfed by a warm dampness. Scout dog is here and he’s saying hello, nearly licking my glasses off. We zoom out to the doggy day-care dropoff and then to the airport.
The conversations bounce around various topics. Our scout discusses what he’s read most recently, a book on George S. Patton. He doesn’t have the free hours for many hobbies but enjoys reading about World War II. “Not joining the military is one of my biggest regrets,” he says at one point, adding that, when he sees military members on his flights, he feels guilty. Tactics and hardware obsessed him from an early age. He can rattle off details from different battles, the tanks they used, what technology proved decisive and differentials in man power.
With the clock ticking, we get to life subjects. What exactly happened with that long-term girlfriend? What happens now in your life? The former has a clear answer, but the latter far less so. Our scout eases into a parking space and opens the door. I get a text informing me that my flight is delayed. I wish to relax in my newfound pocket of languor but will keep pace with the hurried for now. Our scout says, “You know, I do want to have kids. Someday, if I meet the right woman …”
We exit the vehicle and commence walking briskly. He will make his flight. He had more time than he thought, just not nearly as much as I did.
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 December 2018 17:38 (one year ago) link
I couldn’t finish that pretentious shit. Barely made it through the intro.
― EZ Snappin, Friday, 14 December 2018 18:07 (one year ago) link
ESS is really a lot to handle it's true
― J0rdan S., Friday, 14 December 2018 18:47 (one year ago) link
We exit the vehicle and commence walking briskly.
― lag∞n, Friday, 14 December 2018 18:52 (one year ago) link
he can be a lot but i really liked that one
― call all destroyer, Friday, 14 December 2018 19:07 (one year ago) link
i love ethan
― тпсбlack (Spottie), Friday, 14 December 2018 19:11 (one year ago) link
non basketball but supposed to be amazing
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 19 December 2018 03:33 (one year ago) link
lol the title alone is very good
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 19 December 2018 03:35 (one year ago) link
The Passion of Mike Piazza: How the midlife crisis of a baseball Hall of Famer led to the demise of a 100-year-old Italian soccer club
By Robert Andrew Powell 227 When Mike Piazza arrived in Reggio Emilia, he was greeted as a hero.
It was June 18, 2016. Everyone remembers the exact date. Piazza had just purchased a controlling interest in A.C. Reggiana 1919, the Italian city’s soccer club. Few locals had heard of him. Even fewer understood his Hall of Fame career catching for the Mets, Dodgers, and three other teams in the American sport of baseball. “When I learned he was the new owner, I went out and bought his autobiography,” says Jacopo Della Porta, a reporter for La Gazzetta di Reggio. “I think I’m the only one here who has read it.” Piazza was obviously rich. His U.S. citizenship gave him a certain baseline allure. Above all, it was his stated plan to return Reggiana to the top flight of Italian soccer that inspired several thousand fans to squeeze into a public square to see him in person.
Reggiana had languished in Serie C, the Italian third division, since the turn of the century. For a club that has known glory—Carlo Ancelotti coached the team into Serie A, in 1996—the long spell of mediocrity has been dispiriting, even embarrassing. Piazza declared, in translated English, that the club was back in solid financial shape. He said he was in Italy for the long haul, invested in the community, and committed to Reggiana’s success. At the rally, smoke from ignited flares swirled around him. Maroon flags waved. Ultras raised their scarves and chanted songs and reached out to shake Piazza’s hand. “Dai c’andom!” Piazza shouted. “Come on!”
Two years later, A.C. Reggiana no longer exists. The club is bankrupt. A court-appointed accountant is distributing its assets.
In what should have been Reggiana’s centennial season, a different team, not owned by Piazza, now represents the city, down in Serie D, which is only semi-pro. The mayor of Reggio Emilia accuses Piazza of “disrespecting” his town. Those ultras who initially cheered Piazza painted death threats on the walls of the team’s headquarters.
When it all ended last summer, Piazza and his family fled Reggio Emilia so abruptly that the fans—along with team, staff, and even the players—felt blindsided. “They ghosted us,” says Sonya Kondratenko, an American who handled social media for the second and final year Piazza owned the team.
Piazza thought he had embarked on a romantic new chapter of his life. He believed he would stay in Italy for the next three decades, running Reggiana and eventually handing the club down to his children. His wife, Alicia, who never wanted him to buy a soccer team, to whom Piazza handed control of the club after a disastrous first year, and who many in Reggio Emilia blame for the club’s implosion, saw the possibility of a different ending. As they stepped off the stage in the plaza, she pulled her husband aside.
“Either we’re going to have the best experience ever,” she told him, “or we’re going to get rolled.”
Reggio Emilia is a small city about an hour’s train ride south of Milan. Nestled in Italy’s “Food Valley” alongside Parma, Bologna, and Modena, Reggio Emilia is known for its pumpkin tortellini and its namesake cheese, Parmigiano Reggiano. The tricolor national flag first flew in Reggio Emilia, in 1797, its creation celebrated in a museum in the old town center. The headquarters of fashion house Max Mara sit not far from a new train station designed by Santiago Calatrava. Locals are well-educated; Reggio Emilia is known around the world for its progressive schools. They’re also wealthy, though they tend not to flaunt it. The city has a history with communism and retains a collectivist ethos. “We work,” one resident tells me, summing up the city’s view of itself.
The Piazzas, for the two years they ran Reggiana, lived in a rented villa outside the city. They spent their summers in South Florida, where they’ve kept a home for more than a decade. I visited them in Florida in August, arriving as the sun set on Sunset Island II, a triangle of extremely expensive homes connected by a short bridge to Miami Beach.
“This interview’s going to be wet,” Mike said soon after I arrived. He stepped toward a bar in the living room and smiled. “I hope that’s okay with you.”
Mike poured me a glass of Grande Alberone Quintus, a red blend. Alicia sipped a chardonnay. My crystal glass was etched with the letter P in a curled script. Mike cupped his glass in his fingers as if it didn’t have a stem or a base.
“We do this every night,” Mike said, popping a chunk of cheese into his mouth as he settled into a striped Louis XIV chair. Behind him glimmered a swimming pool, and then the calm waters of Biscayne Bay. Alicia sat opposite Mike, near a tray of vegetables.
“It’s a tragedy,” Mike said of his soccer-team ownership. “Like an opera.”
“It was fucking hell,” said Alicia.
After retiring, Mike slipped into the languid life of ex-athletes in Florida. I’d seen pictures of Mike and Alicia appraising paintings at Art Basel. They hosted a benefit for the National Italian American Foundation at their waterfront house. He smoked cigars and golfed with Mario Lemieux and Michael Jordan and James Pallotta, the American owner of Italian soccer club Roma. He golfed a bit more than he cared to, actually.
“I think we got to a point in Miami where we got a little too melancholy,” Mike said. “Maybe that was part of it what fueled what I was doing. I wanted to do something different. And I wanted to do something interesting, and I wanted to do something creative.”
Piazza, who recently turned 50, came of age during the best days of the North American Soccer League. Growing up in Pennsylvania, he was a fan of the Philadelphia Fury, and also the indoor Fever. After he retired from baseball, his appreciation for soccer blossomed. He sat in the stands in Genoa in 2012 when the U.S. men’s national team defeated Italy for the first time. He and a friend flew to Brazil for the 2014 World Cup—“a bucket list sort of thing.” He loved how, unlike baseball, soccer is truly global, played and watched in every country. He began to think that owning a soccer team might be the most interesting thing someone in his position could do.
“I was retired when my second daughter was born,” he said. “And it’s my kids—I would never trade them for the world—but I remember thinking, ‘Here I am, I used to be hitting home runs in front of 43,000 people, and now I’ve got shit under my fingernails from changing diapers.’ There is nothing you will ever do after you retire that will give you the same buzz as playing. I’m sorry. I was able to recognize that and rationalize it and come to a point in my mind where you know maybe it”—buying a soccer team—“was like this super rebound.”
First, he looked at the Premier League. Everton. He flew into London and took a train up to Liverpool, visiting the port city for the first time. Eventually, he concluded the numbers would never work. He dropped down a league to investigate Reading, and also Leeds United. (“I’ve always liked Leeds. It’s weird.”) He pivoted back to the Americas, meeting with the president of Liga MX to discuss maybe buying Las Monarcas de Morelia. (“That would have been crazy.”) Then he investigated his options in Italy. That country seemed like the best fit.
There was the chance to actually live in Italy. Mike’s maternal grandparents are from Sicily. (Piazza translates as “public square;” the welcome rally in Reggio Emilia was held in Piazza Prampolini.) He didn’t visit his homeland until he was in his 30s, but when he did, he felt Italian. He loved the food, the wine. He identified with the people. Also, the soccer landscape appeared much more open.
“I believe that Italian soccer clubs are the most undervalued assets in sports,” says Joe Tacopina, the American owner of Venezia FC. Tacopina was also part of the initial group of Americans that bought Roma, in 2011. “This worldwide club, one of the best-known teams on the planet. And we paid just 110 million euros. For the whole club! For Roma! You can spend that much on just one good midfielder!”
Piazza first wanted to buy Parma, a Serie A club then in bankruptcy. Ultimately he felt Parma carried too much debt for him to absorb. Reggiana looked more attractive. Despite being in Serie C, the team’s passionate fans bought an unusually high number of season tickets. Reggiana also played in a top-flight stadium shared with Serie A club Sassuolo. Unlike a Premier League team, or a team already in Serie A, this was a club he could buy cheap and build.
Alicia, who refers to Mike’s ownership dream as “his midlife crisis,” offered up a counter argument.
“Who the fuck ever heard of Reggio Emilia?” she asked. “It’s not Venice. It’s not Rome. My girlfriend said, and you can quote this—and this really depressed me. She said, ‘Honey, you bought into Pittsburgh.’ Like, it wasn’t the New York Yankees. It wasn’t the Mets. It wasn’t the Dodgers. You bought Pittsburgh!”
In their Miami living room, Mike tried to interject but she stopped him.
“And imagine what that feels like, after spending 10 million euros. You bought Pittsburgh!”
“It’s not easy for an American to come to Italy and try to do business in Italian soccer,” says Gaël Genevier, a midfielder and the Reggiana team captain during Piazza’s ownership. “It’s a jungle. And when you have money, it’s even worse. Mike had a big wallet, he was American, and he didn’t know the soccer in Italy. And I think that’s why he had a lot of problems.”
Soon after Piazza bought Reggiana, he set out to raise the visibility of the club. He gifted Jimmy Kimmel a maroon jersey, on air. The New York Times flew over a reporter for a feature story. On Sports Illustrated’s “Planet Fútbol” podcast, Piazza talked about market discipline, about having a financial plan, about sticking to the plan for the long haul.
“When I took over the club I had a meeting with all the staff,” he told host Grant Wahl. “I said, if you don’t believe we can get to Serie A in five years, then I respectfully ask you to leave right now.”
Turns out, that’s not how it works in Italy. Piazza was free to fire anyone, but whoever he did fire still had to be paid, often for years. Contribute, they call it. In the three months between Piazza’s purchase of Reggiana and the moment he actually took over operations, the number of people employed by the club ballooned. The sporting director he inherited collected a bigger salary than the sporting director of Lazio, in Serie A—and for three years, guaranteed, no matter what. The players’ contracts were exceptionally generous for the Italian third division. The team captain told Piazza so. “They were attractive contracts for even B, one level up,” Genevier says. Piazza was overpaying for everything.
The year before Piazza bought Reggiana, the club finished in seventh place in its division, with operational costs of around 500,000 euros. In Piazza’s first season with the club, Reggiana finished in fifth place, but at a cost to Piazza of more than six million euros.
“When the auditors told us that, it was deafening to our ears,” recalled Alicia. “I turned to Mike and said, ‘What the fuck did you just do?!”
Mike decided he could no longer work with the front office he’d inherited. He also cut ties with his original partner, an Italian he knew from Miami. Looking around for someone who could protect his interests, he didn’t see many options.
“Alicia became the only one I could trust,” Mike said. “I basically took the budget and I turned to her and went, ‘Help. I don’t know what to do.’”
From that point on, Alicia Piazza took charge of Reggiana. And she started making changes.
Alicia Piazza began modeling in her teens and kept at it for a decade. After appearing in Playboy—Miss October, 1995—she saved some lives on the TV show “Baywatch” before showcasing a Broyhill dinette set as one of Barker’s Beauties on “The Price is Right.” She earned a master’s degree in psychology while in Miami. For more than a decade, she had seen herself primarily as a mom to their three kids.
Suddenly, she was vice president of AC Reggiana 1919.
Cost-cutting became her priority, in a way that felt personal. Every dime squandered was a direct hit to the family’s net worth. She ordered the drivers for youth team buses to stop dropping off players at their houses, to save on gas. She ordered the players to wash their own uniforms. (“I don’t think she realized that in Italy not everyone has a washing machine,” says Kondratenko, the American who handled social media for Reggiana.) She typed angry texts, calling employees she fired “conmen” and “frauds” and “liars.” The salutation of one text Alicia shared with me, sent to the team’s former sporting director: “Fuck off, loser.”
“I was the bitch,” she admitted. “I was the bad guy. And I’m sure I have a lot of enemies, and I’m sure you heard a lot of bad things about me and I don’t give a shit. I ripped the mask off so many faces.”
The Piazzas put their Miami Beach house on the market in January. Alicia sent a general email asking if anyone in the front office might want to buy it, asking price $18.5 million. She encouraged a friend of hers in Parma—the one who compared Reggio Emilia to Pittsburgh—to design a jewelry line to celebrate Reggiana’s 100th anniversary. The whole office sat in meetings to decide which rings and bracelets in the collection worked best. “I always thought the club would never fold before the anniversary, just because of all the time she put in on the jewelry,” says Kondratenko. Deviating from her mission to cut costs, Alicia renovated the players’ locker room, adding new tile and an extra toilet. One day, Kondratenko was pulled from her regular work assignments to shuttle Brande Roderick—a Playmate, a “Baywatch” lifeguard, and Alicia’s close friend—to the train station.
“My life plan is not to be doing errands for Playmates,” Kondratenko tells me.
The clear goal in the second season was for Reggiana to earn promotion to Serie B. New sporting director Ted Philipakos, an American who came over from Venezia FC, upgraded Reggiana’s quality on the pitch. He also found a new coach in Greece, where Philipakos holds dual citizenship and retains connections in the sport. They agreed on terms. The coach flew up to Reggio Emilia with his staff, ready to sign his contract and get started. Only after he arrived did the Piazzas balk at the compensation. Alicia offered to pay him and his staff 15,000 euros less than the original offer, a relatively small sum. After the coach protested, she floated a smaller cut of 7,500 euros. The coach flew back to Athens, on principle.
When Mike named Alicia the club vice president, he stepped back a bit. “He likes to stay above the fray,” she said. “It’s not like he’s a pussy or he needs his wife. It’s the way he’s comfortable. He’s always been like that.” In her newly elevated role as Reggiana’s “first lady,” she became a bit of a media sensation. She gave interviews at the team headquarters. She answered questions at restaurants when reporters approached her table, filming. “Alicia always talked down about Reggiana being a peasant team in a peasant town,” says Kondratenko. “She thinks these people have no class, but in some aspects they were super impressed with Alicia. She has money, she’s from the U.S., she has a Chanel bag and a Gucci bag.”
The influential magazine Sportweek invited Alicia to sit for a long interview. It’s her understanding that she was the first club vice president ever to be formally interviewed, and the first woman at any level in Italian soccer.
“I knew we had to get our story out about the stadium,” she said. “And I was feeling there was a conspiracy and I was feeling something (dark) in this underbelly.”
When Reggiana rose to Serie A in 1993, the club and the government of Reggio Emilia recognized the need for a home stadium worthy of the top flight. Locals funded much of the new stadium themselves, purchasing season tickets years into the future to cover construction costs. But Reggiana lasted only two campaigns in Serie A. The club itself went bankrupt. Ownership of the stadium reverted to the city, and the mayor put it up for auction. A billionaire named Giorgio Squinzi bought it, cheap.
Squinzi is the head of Mapei, a conglomerate that sells paint and adhesives. He also owns Sassuolo, a Serie A club which now plays its home games in Reggio Emilia, in the stadium Reggiana built, which Squinzi renamed after his company. Reggiana still played there, too, though they had to pay rent. In a development that Alicia noted on Instagram, the rent almost doubled in the short time between when Mike bought the club and when he actually took over its operation. That’s what Alicia wanted to talk about with Sportweek publisher Andrea Monti.
“He’s balding but he’s powerful and he’s become sexy,” she said of Monti. “He apparently never comes into these interviews, but he comes in and shakes my hand. Everyone thinks it’s because I’m cute, I know. But I was hungover and I was not cute that day. He crosses his legs and he stays for 45 minutes. Then he says this to me, which I will never forget:
“‘Reggio is a strange town and it’s run by the politicians. Don’t you wonder why that town has the (Calatrava) train station? There’s a lot of money there but it’s all controlled by Squinzi. But I think you, my dear, are going to give him a run for the money.’”
From that meeting on, Alicia vowed “not to give fucking Mapei another dime,” she said. “And let me tell you, that was the point where it was like, ‘Alicia sank the company.’”
On March 8th, reportedly at Alicia’s urging, Mike Piazza held a press conference to address Reggiana’s growing debt to Mapei. “It was the worst day of my life,” says Kondratenko, who recorded the press conference in a video that went viral, not just in Italy but around the world. Piazza sat at a table, Alicia silently on his right, an interpreter to his left. Ads for Riunite wine and Parmigiano Reggiano flashed and dissolved on a screen in front of his microphone. “We’re invested in this community,” he said in his opening. “I’ve moved my family here, my children here, to be part of this community.” He slapped the table, hard. “And we deserve respect!”
While Mike spoke in English, he showed impressive fluency in Italian hand gestures.
“We are not going to be PUSHED AROUND by a multi-billion dollar corporation,” he continued. “The stadium was built for this team.” He tapped his index finger on the table three times. “By these PEOPLE!” He tapped a couple more times, furiously. His voice almost cracked when he said, “We’ve reached out in friendship to try to form a coalition with the mayor, with Mr. Squinzi, with Sassuolo, with Mapei, and we’ve gotten”—he slammed down a fist—“NOTHING!” His hand slashed the air with a karate chop. “NOTHING!” He pointed his index finger. “And I’m sick of it! I’m tired and sick of Reggiana being pushed around. I’m frustrated and I’m….” He inhaled a breath. “Ffffffffreakin’ pissed off!” He fell back in his chair and let the translator have at it. Alicia remained motionless.
This went on for more than 10 minutes. He said he isn’t a quitter, but he has his limit. If the rent wasn’t lowered to at least the league average for Serie C, he’d walk away.
“Probably that was the first step in an exit strategy,” says Gazzetta reporter Della Porta.
There was a period early in the second season, in the fall of 2017, when Alicia wasn’t there. She returned to Miami for a bit, to prepare their house for sale. Right after she left, in a development Reggiana supporters tell me is no coincidence, the play of the team dramatically improved. Reggiana strung together two unbeaten streaks of eight games each, vaulting the club from 15th place into second, tantalizingly close to automatic promotion to Serie B. Mike, who stayed in Italy, got hands-on with the team, pulling players aside for one-on-one interviews.
“We knew he was a good athlete, he won a lot of things,” says Genevier. “His Italian wasn’t very good—he spoke in English and the translator translated everything to the players—but he was very, very positive inside the locker room. I remember the players were very happy after each speech of Mike’s. He was the president but he was like a player.”
Without the Greek coach they’d failed to sign, the team was forced to use a Frankenstein’s monster for a manager: One man, who had his coaching license but no experience in Serie C, became the titular leader, while two coaches from the youth teams—both lacking the proper licenses—picked the rosters and the tactics and ran the training sessions.
Somehow it worked. Mike witnessed away victories over Santarcangelo and AlbinoLeffe. Before kickoff, he’d shake hands with the ultras and give his pep talks in the locker room. He followed the action closely.
“When that ball went into the net, I felt like I was playing again,” Mike said. “I’ve never done cocaine, I’ve never done crystal meth, I’ve never done hard drugs, or any drugs for that matter besides aspirin. But let me tell you, that was fucking intoxicating.”
Reggiana finished the regular season in fourth place in their division. The team could still rise to Serie B by winning a playoff tournament. In the quarterfinals, Reggiana matched up against Siena, a strong club, for a home-and-home series. Reggiana won the opener, 2-1. In the second leg, down in Tuscany, Siena held a 1-0 lead deep into the second half. The tie in aggregate meant Siena would advance thanks to that club’s better regular-season finish. But in the first minute of stoppage time, Reggiana scored. In his box, Piazza leapt from his seat.
“Mike was into these games,” says Philipakos. “Obviously he had a lot of money on the line—that was a factor. But the raw emotion wasn’t just about protecting his investment. It was about competition. He was very engaged. When we equalized in stoppage time, he exploded. What followed minutes later was visible heartbreak.”
What followed was decried as “unjust” by Reggio Emilia mayor Luca Vecci. In the sixth minute of stoppage time, a Siena midfielder lofted a ball into the Reggiana box. In the scramble, a Siena player pushed over one of Reggiana’s defenders. Somehow, the referee called a hand ball on the toppled fullback. Yes, the ball briefly touches the player’s arm, but he was on his back from the fall, and he fell because he’d just been bodychecked. Still. Penalty. Siena converted in the 109th minute, with the last kick of the game. Reggiana lost the series. No promotion. Ultras stormed the pitch, looking for blood. Even the mayor ran to midfield.
“It was horrible,” says Genevier, the team captain. “I’ve never seen anything like it. I’ve played more than 300 games in Italy and this one was really the worst one.”
The next day, Mike Piazza posted a message on the official Reggiana website:
“Last night I could not comment because I had to go home with my children. I regret that they had to witness such corruption and incompetence. I’m deeply disgusted and angry. I’m really sorry for our fans, they do not deserve this. It’s really a sad day for Italy and for Italian football. I will never understand how some dirty and corrupt individuals managed to make something so beautiful so repugnant and ugly. I’m sick.”
Two days after the Siena loss, the Piazzas appeared to have emotionally recovered. They hosted a thank-you rally in a small, old stadium near the center of Reggio Emilia. The ultras turned out, as always. Flares burned, flags waved. Smoke floated around Mike, just as it had two years earlier at his grand arrival. The players trooped out in their jerseys, Genevier holding the hand of his young son. The Piazzas stood in front of them. Mike spoke first, in little snippets followed by pauses for translation.
“I want to thank the first lady,” he said, turning to Alicia. She curtseyed in her orange dress. The fans chanted her name. “I’m just going to tell you how much work she has done in the office behind the scenes. And it’s true when I tell you the only reason we’re here today after this beautiful season is because of Alicia. She convinced me to go on. So we all owe a debt of gratitude to her. Grazie!”
Mike kissed her. The ultras continued chanting her name. A female fan stepped onto the grass to offer Alicia a bouquet of white flowers.
“These guys played their asses off and they played with so much heart and determination,” Mike continued, turning to the players. “And it’s really sad the way it ended. But that doesn’t change the effort and the drive and the love they applied.”
Mike held up his fists over his head, a signal of strength and resolve. “I salute this team,” he concluded. “God bless! Enjoy the summer! Well done.”
Everyone left the rally thinking the mission continued. The team would stay together, the Piazzas would remain as owners.
“From my perspective, we had righted the ship,” says Philipakos. “If not for a totally absurd referee’s decision maybe we’d be in Serie B right now. We still had all these great things in place. The key players weren’t going to go anywhere. Most of the starters were under contract. We could have hit the ground running, and should have been a really strong favorite for promotion.”
The rally took place on June 5th. Mike flew to New York to throw out the first pitch before a Mets-Yankees game. Alicia stayed in Italy. On June 8th, a Friday, she invited the front office to lunch at a neighborhood café. Everyone shared a spread of cured meats, cheeses, and fresh pasta. Corks popped off wine bottles. It felt upbeat and celebratory. Alicia told them that with the season over, they should all consider themselves on vacation.
She meant more than that. On Monday, a chain and lock hung on the front door to the offices. Zip ties secured the gates to the parking lot. The Piazzas were gone. The players didn’t know what to do. Should they find new teams? Kondratenko says she didn’t know any more than the players. Should she fly back to the States?
“I woke up to a thousand WhatsApp messages asking what was going on,” she recalls. “I couldn’t take a coffee because so many people were coming up to me asking for information.”
On the 13th of June, on the team website, Mike Piazza announced that he’d put the team up for sale. Alicia issued her own statement: “Unfortunately, Reggiana has been under attack from negative forces since Mike’s arrival. … The suspicious loss in Siena was the final blow. We are generous but we are not crazy.”
One week later, the Piazzas returned to Reggio Emilia and were spotted at the team offices. More than a hundred ultras marched into the office parking lot, chanting and demanding answers. Carabinieri—national police aligned with the military—showed up for the Piazzas’ safety. The police advised the Americans to avoid the front door of the complex and exit through the back. Mike assured them it wouldn’t be necessary—he had always enjoyed a good relationship with the fans.
The carabinieri informed him that the relationship had changed. The Piazzas slipped out the back door, under police escort.
At their house in Miami, drinking wine, both Piazzas told me the end was inevitable. The plane was in a nosedive when they entered the cockpit—when they first arrived in Reggio Emilia—and they knew it immediately. They hung on for two full seasons, at great personal expense, only to get robbed in the playoffs against Siena.
“And we had enough!” Alicia shouted. “And they’re like, ‘Well, let’s sign up for next year and lose another four million euros altogether.’ Who’s losing the four million? We are! We’re losing the four million and not you. So we each took a pill”—she’s speaking figuratively—“we said, ‘Romeo and Juliet did this, we’re going to kill ourselves before you fucking get to kill us.’”
The Piazzas and their Italian attorneys initially tried to sell the club to a group of Reggio Emilia businessmen. When a deadline for fielding a team in Serie C passed, the businessmen opted to simply start up their own, new team, with the mayor’s blessing. Reggio Audace—“Bold”—play down in Serie D, with a roster of amateurs and unpaid professionals. The president of the new team tells me he’s still friends with the Piazzas. He wants them to grant him the official Reggiana name, now that they are done with soccer in the city. The Piazzas have said they will probably turn over the name, once the dissolution is complete.
In the public square where Mike made his initial arrival, there’s a small sign stating that it was there, in the same plaza, that Reggiana was founded 100 years ago. The square is ringed with restaurants and shops, including the official Reggiana team store. Piazza still owns the store, technically. When I was there in August, team jerseys remained for sale even though the team itself no longer existed. One T-shirt featured the “C’mon!’ phrase that Piazza cried out at his introduction. A poster of Piazza, from his days in baseball, had been taken down. No one wanted to see it anymore.
“Maybe it could have been different,” Mike told me in Miami Beach. “If I could re-engineer the whole thing I’d go back and save a lot of the money that was squandered. I’d put in my own people, people that knew what we’re doing. But that’s what we learn! We learn those lessons the hard way! There’s a lot of shoulda, coulda, woulda, but I don’t regret doing it.”
I can still see why it was attractive. In the States, Mike Piazza is a former great. A legend. In Reggio Emilia, with Reggiana, his role was active. Running a soccer team in Italy: It really is a romantic idea. He wasn’t simply a rich guy drinking wine on an endless vineyard tour. He wasn’t merely eating incredible food or lounging in a seaside cabana. He was living. He had an identity beyond his days of baseball, which by now are well behind him. “I need to have a project,” he once told Kondratenko. “I don’t want to just play golf all the time.”
I can also see why Alicia wanted out: She never wanted in. “I’m free,” she told me. Instead of sinking more of the family’s cash into a soccer team, they can spend that money weekending in Barcelona, or how about London? “My kids will be fluent in Italian and maybe also French,” she said. “I’m happy.” She didn’t want the soccer project the way Mike wanted it. But then, she’s never hit a home run in front of 43,000 people.
The Piazzas returned to Italy in late August. “I’m surprised they did this,” says Gian Marco Regnani, a calcio blogger in Reggio Emilia. “They’re the enemy.” The family rented the same villa outside of town from when they owned the team. Recently they moved closer to Parma, where the kids go to school. The Piazzas told me their status as outsiders might have been a central problem. They had the ability to pack up and fly away, while for everyone else Reggio Emilia is home.
“I always had a feeling that they were going to leave,” says Regnani. “I never thought they were going to be here forever.”
When I spoke with the Piazzas in Miami, Mike was careful to stress that he had not bankrupted Reggiana. He and Alicia were “dissolving” the club, he said. They were “executing a soft landing.” But they didn’t “bankrupt” a 100-year-old soccer team and civic institution, he insisted.
That was in August. On December 4th, the Piazzas asked a judge to declare the club bankrupt. On December 5th, the judge granted the request. More than 100 creditors, including Mapei, are currently carving up the Reggiana carcass.
In October, Mike flew to Scotland for a week on the Old Course at St. Andrews. In November, he posted a picture from a golf course in Tuscany.
I’ve spoken to him a couple times, at length, since he returned to Italy. The last time we talked, we discussed Reggiana for a while, naturally, but the team and its problems and his brief time running the club seemed like a closed chapter. We talked about Donald Trump and how being an American abroad has given Piazza a wider perspective on immigration. We talked about the Mets for a bit. He told me he’s started getting into rugby on TV. And also Formula 1. He said he doesn’t like to watch Italian soccer anymore. Not even Serie A. “I just don’t,” he said. “Or I think I’m just too hurt to care.”
the wife's quotes are completely out of control
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 19 December 2018 03:37 (one year ago) link
lmao i can hear her
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 19 December 2018 03:50 (one year ago) link
― J0rdan S., Wednesday, 19 December 2018 04:42 (one year ago) link
Toggle navigation NBA GIVE A GIFTMY TEAMS CITIES NHL MLB NFL NBA CFB CBB SOCCER FANTASY WNBA MMA VIDEO PODCASTS • • •‘The board man gets paid’: An oral history of Kawhi Leonard’s college days
By Jayson Jenks 42 This is my new favorite quote: “The board man gets paid.”
According to former teammates, coaches and managers, Kawhi Leonard didn’t say much during his two seasons (2009-11) at San Diego State. But he did say that, all the time, and it is wonderful: “The board man gets paid.” It says so much about who Leonard was and still is, and it absolutely belongs on a T-shirt.
This is the story about his two years at San Diego State, during which the Aztecs went 59-12 and made the NCAA Tournament both seasons under coach Steve Fisher.
Tim Shelton, forward: He was probably one of the hardest recruits that you’d ever deal with who was that talented. (California’s Mr. Basketball in 2009.) He wasn’t going to text you, he wasn’t going to pick up the phone and talk to you. He just wouldn’t do it.
Justin Hutson, assistant coach: I wouldn’t say hard. I would say different. You couldn’t get him on the phone. Once a week, I’d just have to go up there to his high school (100 miles away in Riverside, Calif.), and I’d make sure he was there first.
Shelton: And it’s part of why the Pac-12 teams didn’t put in extra effort. They were like, “He’s kind of a four-man, and, shoot, we can’t call him and talk to him. He must not want to talk to us.”
DJ Gay, guard: I took Kawhi on his official visit. Honestly, the only thing he wanted to do was get in the gym. We were like, “Kawhi, what do you want to do?” And he was like, “Let’s go work out. Let’s go get some shots up. Let’s play.”
Shelton: We had open gym and were playing. We stopped in between games and introduced ourselves as a team and just chopped it up a little bit more with his mom than him. He introduced himself, “I’m Kawhi. Hey, what’s up.” But if you tried to talk to him, he was like, “It’s cool, everything’s cool, so far it’s cool, it’s nice.” But then he just grabbed the ball and went to shoot. Even during his visit, I’m telling you.
Gay: I think we started up our day playing two-on-two and finished our day getting shots up. That’s just what he wanted to do. He wanted to work. I honestly had no idea what to expect when he left. He didn’t say much. He just wanted to hoop. I had no idea if we were getting him or not. I told coach Fisher: “I’m sorry, I don’t know what to tell you. He didn’t say much.”
Dave Velasquez, assistant coach: My favorite story about Kawhi is when he got to San Diego State his freshman year. He had a math class at 8 a.m. and a writing class at 10 a.m. It was Monday through Thursday, and it was really tough. Our job was to make sure the freshmen were up for that 8 a.m. class. So we were always knocking on their dorm room at 7:30. When we had to find Kawhi for his 8 a.m. class, he was rebounding by himself.
Gay: By far the hardest worker I’ve ever come across, I’ve ever known.
Alex Jamerson, manager: I’ve never seen anyone, ever, work harder in my whole life.
Jamerson: I would show up early to our arena to get things set up for practice. I’m thinking, “Oh, I’m going to be the first guy in the arena just to get things set up,” and I walk out to bring the balls out and he’s already got one or two with him shooting in the dark in the arena. All by himself.
John Van Houten, manager: We used to have to break into the volleyball gym.
Shelton: This was before they had all these swipe cards. We had just one key that we would share to get into that gym. When you didn’t have the key available, you could put the finger under the door at Peterson Gym, and if you knew how to wiggle it right, you could push the latch up and unlock the door.
Van Houten: At first, you could get in and you had access to the lights, you had access to the hoops and everything was good. And then they started cracking down, so we started breaking in, but the lightbox would be locked.
Shelton: So Kawhi had a lamp, and on different occasions, Kawhi would be in there late and the lightbox would be locked, so he’d bring a lamp in there. He’d put his finger under the door and unlatch it and he’d go in there and shoot with just his lamp.
Van Houten: And that’s when they got a new locking mechanism on the doors. And that’s when I got a key to an LDS church, a Mormon church, and they had a full court. … He was gonna find a way to work.
Jason Deutchman, guard: We lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament my senior year on a Thursday. I took the rest of the weekend off and then I was like, “I’m going to go start training on that Monday.” I remember going in that very first night, three days after we had lost — and he was already there.
Coach Velasquez: We had Saturday morning conditioning, so not only would he be running hard and be in the front, but everybody else would go home after. He would go to the gym.
Gay: There were several times I tried beating him in the gym, but no matter how early I got there, he was already there. Or I tried to stay late, but it got to the point that I just couldn’t do it anymore.
Coach Hutson: Knowing Kawhi, he probably just stayed until somebody left. I’m serious.
(Chris Carlson / AP)Gay: The most he talked was on the hard court, and Kawhi was not afraid to let you know that you weren’t going to score on him, that you couldn’t get past him or that he would score on you. Every time the ball went through the net, he just said, “Bucket. Bucket.” That was it.
Tyrone Shelley, guard: Most people say it like, “Oh, I’m about to get buckets on you.” He was just like, “Buckets. Layup.” Just one word.
Shelton: He’d be like, “You’re not scoring. You’re not doing anything.” Or he’d be like, “No, no, no.” He’d just move his feet and say, “No.”
Gay: You couldn’t score on him, so that’s what he would say: “Nope, nope, nope.” And when he would score on you: “Bucket. Bucket.”
LaBradford Franklin, guard: If he was grabbing a rebound, he’d say, “Give me that” or “Board man” or “Board man gets paid.”
Coach Hutson: If I heard it once, I heard it 50 times. “Board man. I’m a board man.” That’s what he said. Absolutely. “I’m a board man. Yeah, I’m a board man. Board man gets paid.” He spoke in phrases like that.
Shelley: Instead of saying, “We need to walk to the store” or “Let’s go to the store,” he’d just say, “I’m up.” When he leaves, he just says, “I’m up.”
Shelton: If he joked, it would be like one or two comments, and he’d go like, “Yeeee.” He’d make more sounds than he actually talked.
Franklin: What stood out to me about Kawhi was everyone else wanted to score or shoot threes, but he wanted to get every rebound. And one of the quotes he always said was, “Board man gets paid.” The rebounder man, he gets paid. And it’s true. He would say that every day. He would take pride in that. If you think about it, defense and rebounding, those are the two things you might not want to do. That’s not the pretty stuff. But he took pride in that. He cared. (And led the Mountain West Conference in rebounding two years in a row.)
Shelton: Guys coming from high school have trouble with help-side defense. Kawhi made a comment to coach Hutson, who was the defensive coach at the time, and he was like, “I don’t get it, coach. Why can’t they just stay in front of their man like I do? Like, why do I have to play help side?” That was his only comment I ever heard him make about defense: “They should just be able to stay in front of their man like I do.”
Coach Hutson: We would talk about rotations and how to help. I would get him on it about. He was respectful, but he would be very frustrated and say, “Why can’t everybody just guard their own man?” Those were exactly his words. “Why can’t everybody just guard their own man?”
Kelvin Davis, guard: In his mind, everyone should be doing what he was doing. But he didn’t realize everybody couldn’t do what he did. He was a walking nightmare.
Gay: In practice, he would tell us, “Don’t help, I don’t need help, I got it, I don’t need help.” That’s just how he was. That was his mentality. “I don’t need help; why do you need help?” But then it made us better because it challenged us: If Kawhi doesn’t need help, I don’t need help, either. And we turned out to be one of the best defensive teams in all of America that year.
Shelton: He didn’t say much. But he would tell you if you were fouling him in practice. He’d be like, “They fouling me, coach.”
Coach Velasquez: There’s one thing we always laugh about as a staff, and it would always happen at practice. He would drive in there, and he’s big and people would be hitting him all the time. At practice, you don’t really call that. I can’t tell you how many times he would look over and go, “But they fouling me. But they fouling me.”
“Kawhi, you’ve got to kick that.”
“But they fouling me.” It was over and over. In games, he wouldn’t really have a lot of dialogue with refs, but you’d definitely hear, “but they fouling me,” two or three times a game.
Shelley: There was no backtalk. Unless he was getting fouled.
Coach Hutson: There was a certain time I wanted everybody to lock and trail in practice. I was very clear that there are times you don’t have to trail on the baseline; there are times you can cheat the screen and shortcut and get there. But right now we’re going to work on lock and trailing. I was very clear that this was the way we were going to do it. And I remember Kawhi just takes his own route. I made everybody run, and he was upset about it. He was definitely pissed about it. A man of few words, but every once in a while he said something.
Van Houten: The coolest part about Kawhi: He plays mini hoop. In every house I’ve ever been to, he always had a mini hoop. You can only play with your left hand. You can’t play with your right hand. That’s a really cool thing because he’s working on his game even when he’s just at the house.
Franklin: He had a Nerf goal on the back of the door in his apartment, and he would just shoot. Friends would come over, playing 2K, and he would challenge us to a free-throw contest.
Van Houten: He’d come over to my house and he’d watch Michael Jordan highlights. We called them “Mike highs” … I mean, like four or five hours at a time.
Coach Velasquez: We’d be done with the game and he’d be on his phone watching Jordan on YouTube. Right away. He wasn’t texting. He was watching Jordan on YouTube. He’d watch it all day, every day.
Shelton: You would see him watching that stuff. But he still wouldn’t talk about it.
Coach Velasquez: Coach Fisher had a no-cellphone policy at team dinners, but Kawhi would have his phone on his lap watching Jordan highlights. He would really study his moves.
Franklin: On his phone, his background was Michael Jordan. … He would always say, “I’m Mike. You like LeBron, you like Kobe? Yeah, they’re cool, but I’m Mike. I want to be the best, the greatest.” And from how he carried himself, we knew he was serious. We knew that’s what he really wanted.
(Lenny Ignelzi / AP)Van Houten: The only thing we’d give him shit for was his hands. Like, “Damn, you make that iPhone plus look like an iPhone 5.” Or like, “Damn, it should be a cheat code to play with those hands.”
Deutchman: There were definitely a few jokes about self-pleasure techniques. (His hands) could be helpful or harmful, depending on your perspective. With those, he could probably do a lot more damage with yourself if you get a little too much into it, considering the size of your hands.
Franklin: I’d always get on him about his braids. Like after a practice or after a long road trip, we’re all sweating, and it would look like he just got out of bed with his hair. But he didn’t care at all.
Gay: I used to call him an Avatar. A freakish Avatar, that’s what he was in college. Long limbs, long body, could run like the wind.
Franklin: From what I can remember, if it wasn’t Michael Jordan highlights, he was watching an episode of the Martin Lawrence show. He could be entertained with that. He’s so low-maintenance. Low maintenance, high production.
Shelley: I don’t remember him going to any parties except for one, and he was just kind of off in the corner hanging out until we left.
Shelton: He would be with the team and kick it and party a little bit because it was San Diego and we were winning. But he’d still be the first person up, and he’d be in the gym shooting.
Gay: I used to tell him that I had an unblockable step-back. It took him a while, but he finally started blocking my step-back. And that’s when I was like, “This is just ridiculous.” I was just like, “Yeah, my time is over.”
Coach Velasquez: I’ll never forget when we played at Cal. He remembered that Cal didn’t think he was good enough. He heard that the head coach at the time, Mike Montgomery, didn’t think he was good enough. He made it his personal mission to go out there and want to destroy Cal. They had a really good team. Allen Crabbe was there. They had a squad. But Kawhi went up there at Cal, and you knew when he walked on the floor that game, they had no chance. It was ridiculous.
Shelton: We played at Fresno State against Paul George, and that was when Paul George was getting some hype. I remember Kawhi watching his clips and us doing the scouting report. Now, he never said anything that he was going to lock him up or that he wasn’t any good. He was just like, “OK.”
Franklin: We were playing against Jimmer and BYU in the tournament. He screamed to coach Fisher, “Let me guard him.” At that time, Jimmer was killing everybody in the country. He was Jimmer Fredette. Kawhi had no business taking that challenge or saying that he was better than Jimmer then, but he did it.
Coach Velasquez: (Coach Fisher) would always say, “Kawhi paid the bills.” Kawhi rebounded. Kawhi was the best defender on the floor. Kawhi ran the hardest in transition. Kawhi always did all the little things that helped your team win.
Shelton: He says the most by his actions. He’s probably the only person that I know, that I’ve met, that I’ve seen, that speaks that loudly through his actions. People are like, “Kawhi’s quiet.” I’m like, “No, he’s not. Have you seen him work? Have you seen the dude work out? Do you know what his routine is over the summer?”
Van Houten: He always found a way. If he wants to become the greatest, he’s going to find a way. If he wants to get in a gym and work out, he’s going to find a way.
Franklin: To this day, I apply everything I learned from him. He was the hardest worker. While we were going to class, he would hold his couple papers for the class in his hand and in his backpack he had his sports gear: his shoes, the ball. He was always in the gym. At night, in the day. You could definitely learn from him. That work ethic can be applied to anything. That was the most craziest thing I saw.
Coach Hutson: I was fortunate enough to be around a genius. He had a genius work ethic.
(Top photo: Harry How / Getty Images)
What did you think of this story?
AWESOMEJayson Jenks is a features writer for the Athletic Seattle. Jayson joined The Athletic after covering the Seahawks for four seasons for the Seattle Times. Follow Jayson on Twitter @JaysonJenks.42 COMMENTSAdd a comment...Anmol K.Jun 3, 11:25am12 likesKawhi is a future HoF.Rick M.Jun 3, 11:38am38 likesWow what an awesome story. I can’t recall ESPN ever doing a story like this. I want someone in the media to ask Kawhi about “The Board Man Gets Paid!”Breanna S.Jun 3, 11:59am21 likesHe's like Kobe with a Tim Duncan personality.J S.Jun 3, 1:25pm15 likesTim Duncan seems normal by comparisonFrankie C.23h ago6 likesHe's better than Kobe, thoughScott E.19h agoTim Duncan would never have exited San Antonio the way Kawhi did.
Keep in mind I mostly sided with Kawhi. But still.Nick Z.Jun 3, 12:00pm3 likesA+ effortBaskar G.Jun 3, 12:08pm4 likesMad geniusPaul D.Jun 3, 12:40pm9 likesAs a former basketball Aztec myself, I am so proud of Kawhi. His game is beautiful.Ansar H.Jun 3, 12:47pm5 likesOmg what a story - the board man gets paid!!!!!!!!Marcus G.Jun 3, 1:14pm8 likes"If he joked, it would be like one or two comments, and he’d go like, “Yeeee.” He’d make more sounds than he actually talked."
Kawhi is a living, breathing memeMyles S.Jun 3, 1:35pm31 likesThese oral history pieces are probably my favorite feature The Athletic does.Greg B.Jun 3, 2:02pm1 like@Myles S. Totally. More please.Ned R.Jun 3, 1:46pm2 likesGreat story with insight into Kawhi.Beta 3.Jun 3, 2:13pm3 likesFantastic work Jayson. What an interesting read.Emet L.Jun 3, 2:14pm8 likesI still can’t get over Dame Lillard using his friend’s Netflix account when he was in the NBADavid R.Jun 3, 2:19pm5 likesThis is one of the most hilarious and revealing stories I’ve read about a basketball player. Kawhi is such an enigma, and I felt like I had no idea what made him tick, but this story really opens a door on him. Very impressive guy. I was at that Cal game and I remember him wrecking us. I only hope the dubs find a way to stop him because his inner determination is obviously EPIC.Jordan T.Jun 3, 2:41pm2 likesKawhi is deadass the Terminator lolMark G.23h ago1 likeNeeded this insight into Kawhi...good story!Adam A.23h ago1 likeWish I started at SDSU in 2010 instead of 2011 so I could watch kawhiKenneth C.23h ago6 likesThe NBA can definitely benefit from more guys like Kawhi who just walks the walk. The league is filled with prima donnas that put their personal agendas before team goals. They can say they care about winning more than anything else but what they care is how much it goes in their pockets.Seth F.23h ago2 likesIn terms of body control and the ability to be a dominant (and game altering) force on defense, I absolutely feel he’s Jordan-esque. Also ‘Board Man Gets Paid’ shirts on Breaking T in 3...2.....Frankie C.23h ago5 likesI honestly cannot believe that nobody really talked about this guy in college. It's not like he was just ok, and would be a solid role player, or was at a mid major and barely played against good teams. SDSU was a legit top 10-15 team those 2 years & they were beating good squads, yet we heard more about Fischer, because he also coached the Fab 5, than we did about Kawhi. How crazy is that?Alex N.19h ago@Frankie C. That 2010-11 team was pretty stacked. Lot of good seniors on that squad that went on to have pro careers overseas. They definitely had the talent to go all the way that year.Adam G.23h ago2 likes"Why can't they just guard their man like I do?" Hahaha, made me laugh. I know that feeling, but on a much, much muuuuuuch smaller scale at work.Colin G.23h ago6 likesI thought it would be impossible for me to like Kawhi after he killed my Sixers, but you gotta respect him after reading a story like this.Norman L.23h ago5 likesThis article is everything. What an absolute joy to read.Cheers,Zaid T.23h ago2 likesThe “board man gets paid” motto really showed last night vs GSW. Plenty of possessions where he recovered an offensive rebound.
Good to know!Alex C.23h ago7 likesAs a special education teacher, I wholeheartedly believe that Kawhi is a little autistic or something, which is really really cool. I'd love for him to open up and hear more of his story.Jeremy G.13h ago3 likesI came here to say, this article makes me wonder if Kawhi is on the spectrum. Barely talks, extremely insanely focused, repeats the same habits over and over, makes more sounds than words.Young K.21h ago1 likeWhat a killer robot Kawhi is!Forrest B.20h agoWow, what this article shows me is how well researched the clippers are with Kawhi. This year they've talked about being a black top team, a team that works, a team that doesn't want drama, Doc comparing Kawhi to Jordan. It's crazy.Dan M.12h agoIf the Clips get Kawhi and KD ... gulp. Dynasty probably over in the Bay.Jeff J.18h ago2 likesAs an SDSU grad I feel so blessed and proud of guys like Kawhi because San Diego State will never be a power 5 school where these kinds of guys are on a regular basis. There are a lot of very good players in lots of sports to come out of SDSU, Kawhi, Tony Gwynn, Marshall Faulk, and it feels good to in some small way be a part of that.Gary F.15h agoHe seems like a genuinely nice guy. Very easy to hang out withWill O.12h agoKAWHI SO SERIOUS?!Danny M.12h agoI watched him at SDSU. That 34-3 team was so good and I was bummed that he left after the 2011 season because I really thought they had a very good chance to win the NCAA tourney. That said, I’ve followed his NBA career and hope him continues to work hard and win more titles. He’s the reason I watch pro basketball again. Thanks KL.Dan M.12h ago1 likeMan oh man. What a great story. I am an Aztec alum ... and a life long Warrior fan ... talk about being conflicted.
What I can say, is that Aztecs love Kawhi. LOVE HIM.
There’s a whole lot of pride, and happiness, for all his success.
There is tremendous gratitude to him- during his sophomore (last) season on The Mesa, we had the greatest team we had ever had, and likely ever will, have.
It was like we were Duke, North Carolina or Kansas for a season. I really believe we were one of the 2-3 best teams in the nation that season - we grabbed the highest #2 seed in the tournament that season, so they had us as #5 overall going in. We won our first 2 games in tournament history, I was blessed to be in Tucson for both. I was “fighting them back” as the clock ran out to beat Temple to go to our first sweet 16.
We lost to eventual national champion UConn the next week, some very questionable calls in an incredible game that went down to the final possession. I have no doubt we clobber Arizona the next game, as UConn did, to go to our first and only Final 4. So close.
Kawhi was the difference. Even though he was so raw, could barely shoot a lick... I had never seen such a force of nature before, his effort, his attitude, his intense desire to win. An absolute demon on the boards and defensively. He was surrounded by an incredibly long, athletic, talented team that defended as well as just about any team I’ve ever seen in college basketball. What a incredible season that really put SDSU on the national basketball map for a run of 4-5 years.
Of course, despite Aztec nation’s claimed that he wasn’t ready to come out for the draft. Needed one more season in college. He thought differently. We all know how that has turned out. Nobody was going to deny Kawhi.
There are some incredible Kawhi stories I’ve read and heard about him that speak to his ridiculous work ethic, his focus and single-mindedness to be the best, and a spotlight on what he cares about- his mom, his close friends and family ... and basketball.
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 4 June 2019 17:52 (one year ago) link
I wish that Paul George anecdote had gone somewhere
― reggae mike love (polyphonic), Tuesday, 4 June 2019 21:13 (one year ago) link
A guy I did community service with smoked a blunt with Kawhi in college
― brimstead, Tuesday, 4 June 2019 21:56 (one year ago) link
Oh man, I thought the "yeeeee" anecdote posted in the Finals thread was a joke. What a guy!
― Fetchboy, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 00:59 (one year ago) link
Alex C.23h ago7 likesAs a special education teacher, I wholeheartedly believe that Kawhi is a little autistic or something, which is really really cool. I'd love for him to open up and hear more of his story.
im not comfortable diagnosing ppl but there is something to this.
― be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 01:43 (one year ago) link
his flat affect, difficulty reading social cues, intense interests, repetitive behaviors
― be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 01:46 (one year ago) link
had that exact thought when i read this
― call all destroyer, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 01:52 (one year ago) link
same over here tbh
― Clay, Wednesday, 5 June 2019 02:04 (one year ago) link
This oral history of college Kawhi is crazier than people think... pic.twitter.com/FUyiOIQYjE— Amir Blumenfeld (@jakeandamir) June 4, 2019
― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 02:33 (one year ago) link
the family business stuff makes a lot of sense in that context, too.
honestly i feel bad making/laughing at jokes around his behavior (kawhi is a robot/the terminator, the laugh meme) now.
― be the 2 chainz you want 2 see in the world (m bison), Wednesday, 5 June 2019 02:41 (one year ago) link
at least he employed a symbol, tried to show some verve
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 10 September 2019 21:36 (eleven months ago) link
Kind of amazing how much his public rep has changed since that MVP press conference. Remembering that guy, it just seems like he's been horribly ill-equipped to handle being megafamous in a social media world, and it's really taken its toll on him. In retrospect Kyrie's always been a loon but Durant seems more fallen.
― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 01:36 (eleven months ago) link
People really didn’t like that move to GS, and people still aren’t over it. 3 years of hearing the same ol thing has got to get old.
― big city slam (Spottie), Wednesday, 11 September 2019 01:59 (eleven months ago) link
True because he can't resist paying attention to all that noise. Which is unfortunate because plenty of fans totally got it -- who wouldn't want to trade the paranoid, antagonistic culture in OKC at the time for the sweetness of what was going on in GS? To say nothing of the chance to win there. To say nothing of living in the Bay Area as opposed to Oklahoma. At least I certainly felt that way at the time
― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 02:15 (eleven months ago) link
it was a hoe ass move tbqh
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 02:21 (eleven months ago) link
i think he was taken totally off guard by the reaction which he shdnt have been
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 02:22 (eleven months ago) link
a lot of the discussion around his decisions has an underlying assumption that there is a decision out there that would make him happy. i don't think the dude is really wired to be happy.
― call all destroyer, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 02:26 (eleven months ago) link
sometime he shd just reflect on the fact that most people will never dunk in their entire lives
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 02:29 (eleven months ago) link
he doesnt want us to worry about his happiness, he even said so. maybe playing iso ball in brooklyn will make him happy idk. if hanging with kyrie is all he wanted then thats cool, hang away.
― big city slam (Spottie), Wednesday, 11 September 2019 04:33 (eleven months ago) link
I think Durant perceived some sort of new era where winning a title is all that matters, because LeBron more or less skated on abandoning his team. But he didn’t process that LeBron didn’t abandon Cleveland for a team that won SEVENTY THREE GAMES
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 18:47 (eleven months ago) link
Nah, LeBron got just as much hate when he went to the Heat. The Decision + bringing Bosh with him more than made up for the Warriors dynasty fueling the animosity towards Durant. But LeBron had one season where it got to him and then learned to dgaf. Durant never figured it out and he's gonna be disappointed to find that whatever he's trying to move past, they have it in Brooklyn too. But he doesn't want us to care if he's happy so
― Lavator Shemmelpennick, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 20:03 (eleven months ago) link
LeBron didn’t abandon Cleveland for a team that won SEVENTY THREE GAMES
― Matt Armstrong, Wednesday, September 11, 2019 2:47 PM (two hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
yeah if kd had gone anywhere else not many ppl wldve cared
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 20:50 (eleven months ago) link
if bron had just done a humble goodbye to cleveland letter instead of the decision he wldve got a lot less hassle too
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 20:51 (eleven months ago) link
at least kd didn't curse us with the phrase 'taking talents to _____'
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 20:56 (eleven months ago) link
hopefully he did remember to bring his talents with him tho
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 20:59 (eleven months ago) link
LeBron also felt like the undisputed leader of the Heat even w/Wade there, Bosh was just a chill guy, it was a good vibe. If there was any drama, it was minor. I wouldn't be surprised if that four-year period was LeBron's happiest run in the NBA.
Durant moved to GS and it was just weird, not just the mercenary "hey can i get a ring too?" feel but the personality fit. there was already a clear all-time star player plus huge personalities and already three future HOFers, there was no room for him to step up and feel comfortable in that locker room. obv in the end he felt like it was a thankless endeavor, despite him being a top 3 NBA player he's got Dray sonning him in front of the world on the sideline and other shit like that i'm sure behind the scenes.
― omar little, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 21:00 (eleven months ago) link
dray was not having kds bs lol
― lag∞n, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 21:03 (eleven months ago) link
draymond is the best. ripped the bandaid off early in the season. weirdest part of the whole thing was when KD went into weird passive aggressive im not gonna shoot the ball mode for a few weeks and the team went on a run. i think he and the team were all cool but just in different phases of their lives.
― big city slam (Spottie), Wednesday, 11 September 2019 21:59 (eleven months ago) link
NBA Future Power Rankings: Outlook for all 30 teams
5:18 AM MTKevin Pelton and Bobby Marks
How will your team perform over the next three NBA seasons?
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team in the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see the direction in which your favorite team is headed.
To determine the Future Power Rankings, we asked ESPN Insider analysts Kevin Pelton and Bobby Marks to rate teams in five categories and rank them relative to the rest of the league. For an explanation of each category and a full view of how each team did in each individual category, click here. Each team also received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 100, based on how well we expect it to perform in the next three seasons.
Here are our latest rankings.
Note: The previous version of these rankings dropped in March.
1. LA ClippersRANK SCOREPlayers 1 87.5Management T-1 85.0Money 23 37.5Market 3 87.5Draft T-24 25.0Overall: 77.7The largest year-to-year jump in the decade-long history of these rankings saw the Clippers go from 21st in the fall of 2018 to No. 1 overall after signing reigning Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard as a free agent and trading for Paul George to team with him.
The Clippers had already moved into the top 10 by the spring, when they were headed to an unexpected 48-win season and had added draft picks and guard Landry Shamet in the savvy Tobias Harris trade. But it wasn't clear whether the Clippers could land the coveted Leonard, which ultimately required sending out a historic haul of draft picks and swaps to the Oklahoma City Thunder for George.
Having retained quality role players to support Leonard and George, the Clippers should be considered title favorites this season and likely in 2020-21 as well before both stars can become free agents in the summer of 2021.
(Previous rank: No. 8)
2. Brooklyn NetsRANK SCOREPlayers T-6 77.5Management T-4 80.0Money T-25 32.5Market T-4 85.0Draft T-16 50.0Overall: 72.5If the Future Power Rankings were based on the upcoming season alone, the Nets would not be in the top 10. Instead, Brooklyn moves up 10 spots to No. 2 because of what lies beyond this season.
The return of Kevin Durant will move the Nets from a middle-of-the-pack playoff team now to one that should compete for an NBA championship. Despite Brooklyn ranking No. 25 in money, the addition of Durant, Kyrie Irving and Taurean Prince plus new deals for Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie has the core group of players under contract through at least 2021-22.
Even with limited cap flexibility, general manager Sean Marks and his front office (No. 4 in management) have shown a propensity of finding under-the-radar players in free agency (Joe Harris and Dinwiddie) and identifying talent in the late first round (LeVert and Jarrett Allen). The Nets also could have two first-round picks in June, from Philadelphia and Golden State (though perhaps not their own pick).
(Previous rank: No. 12)
3. Golden State WarriorsRANK SCOREPlayers T-6 77.5Management T-1 85.0Money T-27 22.5Market T-2 90.0Draft T-24 25.0Overall: 70.8For the first time in five years, the Warriors have fallen from their comfortable perch at No. 1. That's the product of a ruinous four-week stretch during which Golden State saw All-Stars Kevin Durant (Achilles) and Klay Thompson (ACL) suffer devastating injuries, and then lost Durant to the Brooklyn Nets in free agency.
Still, there's reason to believe the Warriors can resume contention once Thompson returns to the court. Golden State aggressively pivoted by agreeing to a sign-and-trade deal to bring D'Angelo Russell from the Nets. How Russell will fit with the core of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Thompson remains to be seen, and the move gutted the Warriors' bench this season, but they will have a window next summer to utilize a $17.2 million trade exception created in the Andre Iguodala deal. At worst, Russell would be valuable in a trade coming off an All-Star season at age 23.
(Previous rank: No. 1)
4. Houston RocketsRANK SCOREPlayers T-3 82.5Management T-4 80.0Money 29 20.0Market 7 65.0Draft T-29 20.0Overall: 70.2After swinging a bold deal to re-team former MVP Russell Westbrook with his onetime Oklahoma City teammate James Harden, the Rockets rank near the bottom of the league in both financial flexibility and future draft picks. Yet Houston still sits fourth overall thanks to the star duo and quality supporting talent that's signed up through at least 2021 after guard Eric Gordon agreed to an extension this offseason.
There are long-term reasons for concern as Westbrook ages and the bulk of the picks and swaps the Rockets gave up for him (and to move Chris Paul's contract) comes due, but over the next three years, the biggest issue might be on the sidelines. Mike D'Antoni, the 2016-17 coach of the year, enters the final season of his contract after extension negotiations broke down this summer. Houston also lost assistant Jeff Bzdelik, who oversaw the team's defensive improvement in 2017-18.
(Previous rank: No. 7)
5. Denver NuggetsRANK SCOREPlayers T-3 82.5Management T-6 77.5Money T-25 32.5Market 18 45.0Draft T-27 22.5Overall: 69.4The Nuggets slide two spots not because of anything that went wrong, but rather due to the success other West contenders enjoyed this offseason.
Riding a breakthrough campaign from All-NBA first-team center Nikola Jokic, Denver returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and got within a game of the conference finals. The Nuggets are counting on continuity and internal development to keep up with the West's top tier, though their one key addition -- Jerami Grant -- looks like an ideal fit as Paul Millsap's possible long-term replacement at power forward.
Letting Millsap walk would help Denver manage payroll with Jamal Murray's max extension kicking in next summer, which will hamper flexibility. Still, Denver should remain competitive with a strong core of young talent that could get another boost if 2018 lottery pick Michael Porter Jr. proves healthy and as effective as he was before multiple back surgeries.
(Previous rank: No. 3)
Jeff Chiu/AP Photo 6. Los Angeles LakersRANK SCOREPlayers T-3 82.5Management T-23 35.0Money 16 50.0Market 1 92.5Draft T-27 22.5Overall: 67.7Having added Anthony Davis via trade to LeBron James to create arguably the NBA's best duo, the Lakers moved up to third in the roster category. Yet the Lakers still rank just sixth overall because of our lack of faith in their management.
No other team in the top 10 rates below average in this category. GM Rob Pelinka gained decision-making power after president Magic Johnson abruptly resigned before the Lakers' 2018-19 finale, and though he oversaw the Davis deal, Pelinka's track record has been mixed.
The Lakers couldn't land their top choice for head coach, Tyronn Lue -- who went to the Clippers as an assistant -- and settled on Frank Vogel. If the Lakers start slowly, speculation on assistant Jason Kidd replacing Vogel will run rampant. If James regains his crown as the NBA's best player, however, it's possible off-court issues won't hinder the Lakers' title chances.
(Previous rank: No. 11)
7. Philadelphia 76ersRANK SCOREPlayers 2 85.0Management 14 65.0Money 30 10Market T-13 50.0Draft T-24 25.0Overall: 67.5It is almost unfair that Philadelphia moved down three spots. The roster is ranked No. 2 after the acquisitions of Al Horford and Josh Richardson and new deals for Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris. Even after losing Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick, the 76ers are still viewed as one of the favorites to come out of the East.
The concern moving forward is the $580 million investment in four players, starting in 2020-21: Joel Embiid, Simmons, Horford and Harris. The team will live in the luxury tax for the foreseeable future, and improvement will come only from within or if management is willing to make Embiid or Simmons available in a trade. As a result of those commitments, Philadelphia now ranks No. 30 in money.
(Previous rank: No. 4)
8. Boston CelticsRANK SCOREPlayers T-9 72.5Management T-12 70.0Money T-27 22.5Market T-8 62.5Draft T-6 75.0Overall: 67.3Despite not ranking in the top two for the first time since September 2015, Boston is well positioned for the future. While the team fell in every category except for market, the Celtics are still in the top 10 when it comes to their roster, draft assets and management.
Compared to a year ago, the Celtics replaced the uncertain future of Kyrie Irving with a four-year commitment from All-Star Kemba Walker, and they still have a young core of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum along with veterans Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and now Enes Kanter.
The Celtics' treasure chest of draft assets also remains full. While they no longer have the coveted Sacramento Kings first-round pick, they still possess all their own firsts, along with a top-seven protected first from Memphis and top-eight protected first from Milwaukee in 2020. The first from Memphis could be the best asset any team in the league has because it becomes unprotected in 2021 if not conveyed.
Boston fell in the money category because of how the future shapes up -- Brown is scheduled to be a restricted free agent in 2020 and Tatum the following year.
(Previous rank: No. 2)
9. Milwaukee BucksRANK SCOREPlayers T-9 72.5Management T-1 85.0Money T-18 45.0Market T-15 47.5Draft T-20 35.0Overall: 67.1The Bucks advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, returned four out of five starters, are the favorites to come out of the East and still fell three spots in the rankings.
The small slide comes because of two factors: the loss of Malcolm Brogdon in free agency and what the future might hold for Giannis Antetokounmpo. If the MVP commits next summer to a $254 million supermax contract, Milwaukee should jump into the top five. If he doesn't, a cloud of uncertainty -- like with New Orleans and Anthony Davis -- will follow next season, possibly the last with Antetokounmpo in a Milwaukee uniform.
One bright note is that Milwaukee now has a top spot in management. The Bucks have the returning coach of the year in Mike Budenholzer, a creative front office led by Jon Horst and a committed ownership group.
(Previous rank: No. 6)
10. Utah JazzRANK SCOREPlayers T-6 77.5Management T-6 77.5Money 24 35.0Market T-25 33.5Draft T-20 35.0Overall: 66.7More than anyone else, the Jazz slid in the rankings because of the way other teams improved this summer. Utah did, too, but it came at a long-term cost: The Jazz gave up two first-round picks plus 2018 first-rounder Grayson Allen to get stalwart point guard Mike Conley, then spent their remaining cap space on a four-year, $73 million deal for Bojan Bogdanovic.
Assuming Utah extends the contracts of All-Star center Rudy Gobert (who will be eligible for the supermax) and guard Donovan Mitchell next summer, the Jazz won't have cap space or quality draft picks any time soon. That tradeoff will be well worth it if Utah can parlay the shooting upgrade provided by Bogdanovic and Conley into the team's deepest playoff run since making the conference finals in 2007.
Long term, the Jazz's best hope for improvement is Mitchell developing into an All-Star centerpiece.
(Previous rank: No. 5)
Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images 11. Portland Trail BlazersRANK SCOREPlayers 11 70Management T-9 75.0Money 20 42.5Market T-15 47.5Draft T-16 50.0Overall: 65.0By extending the contracts of guards Damian Lillard (who agreed to a four-year supermax extension through 2024-25) and CJ McCollum (who added three years through 2023-24), the Blazers answered the biggest questions about their future. Now a different challenge comes into focus: Can Portland maintain a contender while paying the two guards a combined $70-plus million per year?
Neil Olshey won't have to deal with that issue until 2021-22, when Lillard's extension kicks in, but there are key decisions between now and then. In newcomers Kent Bazemore and Hassan Whiteside, the Blazers have two huge expiring contracts that could be used to trade for a long-term deal (say, Oregon native Kevin Love?) if the team is willing to keep paying the luxury tax.
Those decisions might depend on how Zach Collins develops as a starter and how Jusuf Nurkic comes back from a compound lower leg fracture suffered last March.
(Previous rank: No. 9)
12. San Antonio SpursRANK SCOREPlayers T-15 57.5Management T-9 75.0Money 7 65.0Market T-11 52.5Draft T-9 60.0Overall: 60.8Remarkably, the Spurs are the only team to rank better than average in every category we consider, a testament to the options in front of a San Antonio front office now led by GM Brian Wright with R.C. Buford moving into the larger role of CEO.
The Spurs are competing now with veteran All-Stars LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, but have developed a new wave of young talent led by guards Dejounte Murray and Derrick White.
If San Antonio wants to move on from Aldridge and DeRozan, there's potential for max-level cap space in either 2020 (when DeRozan has a player option and Aldridge's contract is partially guaranteed) or 2021 (when both deals are up). Alternatively, the Spurs could extend or re-sign Aldridge and DeRozan to delay a change of direction until after legendary coach Gregg Popovich (now age 70) decides to call it a Hall of Fame career.
(Previous rank: No. 14)
13. Dallas MavericksRANK SCOREPlayers 12 67.5Management T-15 62.5Money 17 47.5Market 10 55.0Draft T-29 20.0Overall: 60.0Unable to land a max-caliber free agent this summer, the Mavericks have largely locked in their core for the next couple of years. They won't have appreciable cap space again until Tim Hardaway Jr.'s contract expires in the summer of 2021.
Between now and then, Dallas is counting on the development of 2018-19 Rookie of the Year Luka Doncic and newcomer Kristaps Porzingis -- set to return 20 months after tearing his ACL playing for the New York Knicks -- to get back to the playoffs after a three-year drought.
It's particularly important that the Mavericks become competitive by 2021, when they're set to send an unprotected first-round pick to New York to complete the Porzingis trade. If Porzingis reclaims his All-Star form and Doncic takes a step forward in Year 2, Dallas could crack the top 10 by the next installment.
(Previous rank: No. 13)
14. New Orleans PelicansRANK SCOREPlayers 14 60.0Management T-17 55.0Money T-8 62.5Market T-21 37.5Draft T-6 75.0Overall: 58.8No team improved its future projection more from the spring than the Pelicans, owing to a combination of good decisions and good fortune. The latter came in the draft lottery, when New Orleans landed the coveted No. 1 pick and the chance to draft Duke forward Zion Williamson first overall.
The good decisions started with hiring David Griffin to run basketball operations. Griffin satisfied Davis' request for a trade but squeezed just about everything possible out of the Lakers: budding talents Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Brandon Ingram, three first-round picks and a swap. The Pelicans then flipped one of those picks, this year's No. 4 selection, to Atlanta for two first-rounders (Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jaxson Hayes, who both impressed at the NBA summer league). With so much young talent on hand, New Orleans could add veterans Derrick Favors and JJ Redick this summer without sacrificing future flexibility.
(Previous rank: No. 27)
15. Miami HeatRANK SCOREPlayers 17 55.0Management T-15 62.5Money T-10 57.5Market 6 82.5Draft 23 32.5Overall: 56.9There is light at the end of the tunnel of mediocrity for Miami. After falling outside of the top 15 in March for only the second time since 2009, the Heat return at No. 15.
The addition of Jimmy Butler to a young core led by Justise Winslow, Bam Adebayo and rookie Tyler Herro gives Miami its boost. The Heat are still in salary-cap purgatory this season but are set to receive relief when the contracts of Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard expire in July and those of James Johnson, Dion Waiters and Kelly Olynyk expire in 2021. As a result, Miami moves from No. 15 to No. 10 in money and will have the ability to add a second max player to join Butler two years from now.
(Previous rank: No. 19)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images 16. Indiana PacersRANK SCOREPlayers T-15 57.5Management 11 72.5Money T-14 52.5Market T-25 32.5Draft T-20 35.0Overall: 55.6Indiana lost three starters in the offseason, have Victor Oladipo rehabbing from a knee injury that cost him most of last season and still dropped only one spot in the rankings. The Pacers stayed away from a bottom-10 ranking because of strong management (No. 11) and a playoff-worthy roster (No. 15) that adds Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb and T.J. Warren.
Those three players and Myles Turner are under contract through at least the 2021-22 season. So the big variables are whether Oladipo can return to his All-Star form and how the Pacers handle contract negotiations with Domantas Sabonis. The forward can be a restricted free agent next summer if he is not extended by Oct. 21.
(Previous rank: No. 15)
17. Atlanta HawksRANK SCOREPlayers T-18 50.0Management 19 47.5Money 1 97.5Market 19 42.5Draft T-4 77.5Overall: 55.2The committee of two is still a big fan of the future in Atlanta despite the Hawks' one-spot drop in the rankings.
The No. 17 ranking comes from the Pelicans soaring past the Hawks more than anything Atlanta did this offseason. The Hawks have seven players on controllable rookie contracts, including a franchise-level talent in Trae Young and a potential All-Star in John Collins.
Atlanta will add two first-round picks next June, its own and Brooklyn's. The Hawks rank No. 2 in money, with continued cap flexibility of up to $70 million in room not only next summer but in 2021.
So if Atlanta is in playoff contention this season, don't be surprised to find the Hawks in the top 10 when the Future Power Rankings come out in March.
(Previous rank: No. 16)
18. Toronto RaptorsRANK SCOREPlayers T-20 47.5Management T-6 77.5Money 6 77.5Market T-11 52.5Draft 19 42.5Overall: 55.0The one-year, $31 million Kyle Lowry extension moved the needle a little for Toronto in our rankings. Before the new contract, the champs ranked No. 19 because of a roster with five players on expiring contracts -- Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol.
Lowry's extension is a sign the front office is not willing (for now) to break up a playoff team, but there is still uncertainty about what the future holds. Because half the roster consists of pending free agents, Toronto ranks No. 3 in money and could have over $30 million in room next year if it does not extend Siakam before Oct. 21. And the Raptors can wipe their finances clean in 2021 (with likely only Siakam under contract), when we once again will see a star-studded free-agent class.
But while it does rank as the No. 11 market, does Toronto have appeal when it comes to signing star free agents? The championship roster was constructed through the draft and trades.
(Previous rank: 17)
19. Sacramento KingsRANK SCOREPlayers 13 62.5Management 21 40.0Money T-21 40.0Market T-28 25.0Draft T-16 50.0Overall: 52.7Having moved out of the basement of the future rankings, the Kings remain in the same spot after a summer that saw them exchange financial flexibility for superior depth. Sacramento paid heavily to add guard Cory Joseph, forward Trevor Ariza and centers Dewayne Dedmon and Richaun Holmes as well as re-sign Harrison Barnes.
Believe it or not, the luxury tax could become an issue for the Kings by 2021-22 if they extend starting guards De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield and re-sign wing Bogdan Bogdanovic (also eligible for a veteran extension).
We'll file that under the category of good problems for the Kings, who finally appear to have a young core worth paying to keep around. If Fox and 2018 No. 2 pick Marvin Bagley continue progressing under new coach Luke Walton, Sacramento could conceivably end a 13-year playoff drought this season.
(Previous rank: No. 18)
20. Orlando MagicRANK SCOREPlayers T-18 50.0Management T-17 55.0Money T-21 40.0Market T-13 50.0Draft 8 67.5Overall: 51.5There is still upside to an 18th-ranked roster that won 42 games and made the playoffs for the first time in seven years.
The team will count on continuity with its starting five returning, and has multiple veterans under contract for at least three more years with a stable of young players, including Jonathan Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Mo Bamba and Chuma Okeke.
Isaac and Fultz are the X factors to move Orlando into the top half of the rankings.
(Previous rank: T-20)
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images 21. Oklahoma City ThunderRANK SCOREPlayers 25 37.5Management T-12 70.0Money T-10 57.5Market T-25 32.5Draft 1 95.0Overall: 49.0Back in the spring, the Thunder were getting an MVP-caliber season from Paul George, helping offset a slide in Russell Westbrook's play. Oklahoma City hoped for a long playoff run after back-to-back losses in the first round. That didn't materialize, as the Thunder slipped to sixth and were knocked out in five games by Portland.
That proved the end of an era. George privately requested a trade, and after he was dealt to the Clippers, Oklahoma City traded Westbrook as well. The moves, plus sending Grant to Denver, have given general manager Sam Presti a massive war chest of draft picks even more impressive than the ones he used to build the Thunder into a playoff team for a decade. Yet they also signaled the start of what Presti termed a "repositioning" that will likely take the franchise into the lottery for the first time since its inaugural season in Oklahoma City.
(Previous rank: No. 10)
22. Chicago BullsRANK SCOREPlayers T-20 47.5Management 29 27.5Money 13 55.0Market T-8 62.5Draft T-14 55.0Overall: 46.7Chicago fell slightly in the rankings but has the foundation in place to become a consistent playoff team. After relying mainly on the draft for a few years, the Bulls have begun taking a more aggressive approach by adding veterans, including Otto Porter Jr. at the trade deadline and free agents Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young this summer.
Those three players now join potential All-Star Zach LaVine and recent lottery picks Coby White, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr.
Our concerns come largely off the court. The Bulls rank No. 29 in management and have put all their eggs in Jim Boylen's basket with a long-term contract for their new coach. If they continue to struggle, there will lots of blame to go around.
23. Detroit PistonsRANK SCOREPlayers 23 45.0Management 20 45.0Money T-10 57.5Market T-21 37.5Draft T-14 55.0Overall: 46.3Detroit cannot shake mediocrity, as the Pistons have found a home in the 20s in our rankings. That's despite making the playoffs last season and having All-Star Blake Griffin under contract for the next three seasons.
With Griffin, the Pistons can't easily bottom out and commit to rebuilding. Yet with a patchwork roster of veterans and younger players still in development, Detroit also doesn't project as a likely East contender. With Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson due for free agency in 2020, the Pistons are No. 10 in potentially available money, but without a track record of luring top free agents.
(Previous rank: T-23)
24. Phoenix SunsRANK SCOREPlayers 24 42.5Management T-27 30.0Money T-8 62.5Market T-15 47.5Draft T-9 60.0Overall: 44.0The Suns have cleaned house in basketball operations, naming James Jones full-time GM in April (under new vice president Jeff Bower) and replacing Igor Kokoskov after a single season as coach with the respected Monty Williams, along with a number of additional changes behind the scenes. Yet you'll forgive us if we want more proof that what has been one of the NBA's most dysfunctional organizations is truly headed in the right direction.
Phoenix upgraded with NBA-caliber talent this summer, adding Ricky Rubio in free agency and Aron Baynes and Dario Saric via trade to complement young cornerstones Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Projections using ESPN's real plus-minus suggest the Suns could challenge .500 after losing at least 58 games each of the past four seasons.
However, Phoenix made other befuddling moves, giving up quality second-round picks to move forwards Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren and unexpectedly taking North Carolina forward Cameron Johnson in the lottery.
(Previous rank: No. 26)
25. Minnesota TimberwolvesRANK SCOREPlayers T-20 47.5Management T-23 35.0Money T-18 45.0Market 30 15.0Draft 13 57.5Overall: 43.3After ranking as high as fifth in the future rankings entering the 2017-18 season, the Timberwolves drop for a fourth consecutive installment. It's up to new president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas to arrest that slide once he's got more flexibility to build the team he wants.
Rosas' big splash in his first offseason at the helm was a draft-day trade up to No. 6 overall to take Texas Tech product Jarrett Culver. Adding Culver to a group including defensive stalwart Robert Covington, former No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins and 2018 first-round pick Josh Okogie gives Minnesota a crowd on the wing, and the natural conclusion is Rosas -- a longtime assistant GM under Daryl Morey in Houston -- has more deals in store as the Timberwolves seek to build a competitive group in time to keep newly extended All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns from considering a trade request.
(Previous rank: No. 22)
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports 26. New York KnicksRANK SCOREPlayers 28 22.5Management 22 37.5Money 2 92.5Market T-4 85.0Draft 2 90.0Overall: 41.7Instead of focusing on the summer of missed free-agent opportunities or lament how New York used cap space to build the roster, we will focus on the positives. Because the Knicks rank No. 2 in both draft assets and cap space, there will be opportunities in the future to escape the bottom five.
New York has all its own future first-round picks, plus an unprotected first from Dallas in 2021 and the ability to shape its roster either next summer or in 2021 because of how the Knicks structured each free-agent contract signed this past offseason. But with so much uncertainty on a roster dominated by unproven young players and those same short-term contracts, the Knicks rank No. 28 when it comes to players.
New York can look to Brooklyn for hope. Two years ago, the Nets ranked one spot worse than where the Knicks are now.
(Previous rank: No. T-23)
27. Memphis GrizzliesRANK SCOREPlayers 26 35.0Management T-23 35.0Money 3 85.0Market T-28 25.0Draft T-9 60.0Overall: 40.4The Grit 'n' Grind era in Memphis officially ended with Conley's trade to Utah months after Gasol was dealt to the Toronto Raptors. Yet there's hope the Grizzlies can build a new contending core around No. 2 overall pick Ja Morant and All-Rookie first-team pick Jaren Jackson Jr., even if it comes after the three-year future rankings window.
A front-office shakeup last spring empowered new executive vice president of basketball operations Zach Kleiman, and the group he built handled this offseason well. Memphis got two first-rounders for Conley and another to take on Iguodala's contract.
With several big expiring contracts, including Iguodala's, the Grizzlies are looking at $40-plus million in cap space next summer to make more such trades. If the Morant-Jackson duo develops as expected, Memphis will have plenty of flexibility to build around them.
(Previous rank: No. 29)
28. Washington WizardsRANK SCOREPlayers 27 25.0Management T-27 30.0Money T-14 52.5Market 19 42.5Draft T-9 60.0Overall: 32.5One year (and two editions of FPR) ago, Washington ranked No. 12 and featured one of the top backcourts in John Wall and Bradley Beal. Now the Wizards rank No. 28 and face a more uncertain future.
Wall has $170 million left on his contract as he recovers from a torn Achilles tendon, and Beal's future is uncertain. While Beal is under contract for the next two seasons, the shooting guard is the Wizards' best trade asset if Washington decides to tear down the roster and start over. He is eligible to sign a $112 million extension until Oct. 21 and could be supermax-eligible next summer if he earns All-NBA this season.
Not all is doom and gloom, though. New Washington GM Tommy Sheppard and a revamped front office have acknowledged that the focus will be on player development (Troy Brown, Thomas Bryant and Rui Hachimura) and say they will not take the kind of shortcuts that hampered this team in the past.
(Previous rank: No. 25)
29. Cleveland CavaliersRANK SCOREPlayers 29 17.5Management 26 32.5Money 5 80.0Market T-23 35.0Draft 3 85.0Overall: 32.3The Cavs do have some positives despite falling to No. 29. They rank in our top 10 in both money and draft assets. They have five players with expiring contracts -- Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova -- that can be used in trades during the season to take back salary, as Cleveland did with Kyle Korver and George Hill. From those trades the Cavs ultimately added nine draft picks and could try something similar this year. They could also shop Love, of course.
With Love's future uncertain and a talented but unproven backcourt, the roster ranks just No. 29. Now we'll find out how new coach John Beilein transitions from a winning college program at Michigan to one that is not expected to win more than 20 games.
(Previous rank: No. 28)
30. Charlotte HornetsRANK SCOREPlayers 30 15.0Management 30 12.5Money 4 82.5Market T-23 35.0Draft T-4 77.5Overall: 27.1Kemba Walker's departure is not the reason Charlotte sits in last place. Even with Walker on the roster, the Hornets have ranked last since March 2018.
The biggest reason is the lack of vision from ownership and the front office. While it was one thing to lose Walker for nothing in free agency, it was another when the Hornets compounded the mistake by paying starter money for a career backup in Terry Rozier.
The Hornets' No. 4 ranking in likely draft assets is a plus, but their past three lottery picks -- Malik Monk, Miles Bridges and PJ Washington -- haven't done enough to lift the 30th-ranked roster.
Some potential good news comes with three big contracts set to expire next summer: those for Bismack Biyombo, Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. The Hornets could have up to $25 million in 2020, the first time the team has had cap flexibility since 2016. But as we saw with Rozier, we should not feel comfortable that Charlotte will spend wisely.
(Previous rank: No. 30)
― lag∞n, Thursday, 10 October 2019 16:25 (ten months ago) link
― k3vin k., Thursday, 10 October 2019 22:06 (ten months ago) link
― de-mamba mentality (Spottie), Monday, 21 October 2019 17:25 (nine months ago) link
Projected W-L records, standings for every NBA teamOct 21, 2019Kevin Pelton
On the eve of the 2019-20 NBA season, let's take a final look at our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). These differ from our initial projections, released in mid-August, by incorporating injuries and roster changes since then, as well as updating my guesses at playing time based on preseason rotations.
While it has certainly been an eventful month in the NBA, preseason seems to have had less impact on the projected standings than in most years. No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson was the only starter to suffer what appears to be a potentially long-term injury, meaning changes in the projections are more attributable to rotations shaking out around the league than any other factor. After a quick explanation, let's get to our final projections.
How do the projections work?
Our RPM projections utilize the multiyear, predictive version of RPM as a starting point. They're adjusted for typical player aging and -- new for this season -- then regressed toward the player's projected offensive rating and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, based solely on box-score stats. (For players without RPM projections, including rookies, the SCHOENE ratings are used instead.)
Why are these projections so compact?
Amazingly, just three teams are projected for more than 50 wins this year. In part, this is a product of the conservative nature of projections. While we know that more than three teams will win 50-plus games, we don't know for sure beforehand which teams will do so.
That said, the parity the RPM-based model forecasts appears unique to this season. Using the exact same method with 2018-19 projections yielded six teams with projections of 50-plus wins and a seventh whose projection rounded up to 50.
What makes this season so wide open?
Besides the absence of a single dominant team, with the Golden State Warriors weakened by injury and attrition, this season is also unique because of the level of roster turnover this summer. I project just 62% of minutes leaguewide to be played by returning players, as compared to 76% in 2018-19. That's important because of the tweak to the projections I made last year to treat players who change teams differently from those who remain with the same team.
Regressing projections toward the player's SCHOENE projections rather than league average improved out-of-sample projections and no longer penalizes stars quite so harshly for changing teams. Still, it's clear that even stars do pay an RPM price for changing teams.
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Within the sample I used for testing (back through 2012-13), 13 players who posted an RPM of 5.0 or better changed teams. On average, their RPM declined from 6.0 to 3.3. By comparison, players with an RPM of 5.0 or better who stay with the same team see a much smaller drop-off, from an average of 6.4 to 4.8. This effect is particularly relevant for the Brooklyn Nets, LA Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers, all of whom added players whose projections would rank among the NBA's top 15 if not for the adjustment.
Given that, it's no surprise that the top three teams in the projections all had a relatively high degree of continuity this offseason and return three of last season's top five players in RPM.
1. Houston RocketsAverage wins: 54.9Playoffs: >99%
Counterintuitively, the Rockets' projection actually went up slightly with Gerald Green presumed out for the season with a possible Lisfranc fracture in his left foot. I assigned most of his minutes to Thabo Sefolosha, who projects slightly better by RPM.
Still, losing Green should test Houston's depth. The Rockets are already essentially down one spot because they can play Nene in only nine games before risking him earning a $2.4 million bonus that would take them into the luxury tax. Green's absence would cost them another spot, so minor injuries could severely compromise the Rockets' rotation.
2. Denver NuggetsAverage wins: 53.6Playoffs: 99%
Given they return a league-high 88% of last season's minutes and have enviable depth with the additions of Jerami Grant and rookie Michael Porter Jr., the Nuggets might have the highest floor of any team this season. If you're picking the most likely team to win 50 games, it's probably Denver, coming off 54 wins in 2018-19.
3. LA ClippersAverage wins: 47.1Playoffs: 87%
The Clippers' modest regular-season projection dipped further with the acknowledgment by coach Doc Rivers that All-Star wing Paul George will miss at least the first 10 games of the season. Though rumors were already swirling back in August that George would not be ready for opening night, I hadn't yet docked his projection any games in the original version.
4. Utah JazzAverage wins: 46.8Playoffs: 86%
In part because Mike Conley is conservatively projected for 64 games, the Jazz's offensive projection (11th in the league) might undersell their room for improvement. They hope to combine an offense that generated the league's highest-value shots (their quantified shot quality of 54.8% was the league's best, per Second Spectrum tracking) with shooters capable of actually taking advantage of those opportunities.
5. Los Angeles LakersAverage wins: 46.4Playoffs: 84%
Technically, DeMarcus Cousins' ACL tear occurred after the original projections, which we updated later that week once the injury was confirmed. The addition of Dwight Howard, projected slightly better than replacement level for a center, didn't do much to affect the Lakers' outlook either way.
6. Golden State WarriorsAverage wins: 45.6Playoffs: 80%
Golden State's projection declined a touch with Alfonzo McKinnie's minutes going to rookies Eric Paschall and Jordan Poole after he was waived to make room on the roster for training-camp invitee Marquese Chriss.
7. Dallas MavericksAverage wins: 43.9Playoffs: 68%
The Mavericks' position as a solid playoff team ahead of two teams that reached the playoffs last season (Portland and San Antonio) remains one of the biggest surprises from RPM's projections, but it's an outlook shared by many stat-based projections. FiveThirtyEight's similar RAPTOR model has Dallas averaging 45 wins, the West's eighth-best total.
8. Portland Trail BlazersAverage wins: 40.6Playoffs: 42%
At Blazers media day, All-NBA guard Damian Lillard told reporters, "What the experts' percentages of us making the playoffs are, that's I would say the least of our concerns." There's certainly a disconnect between Portland's internal expectations of competing for a championship and its statistical projections (FiveThirtyEight also has the Blazers at 41 wins on average and less than 50/50 to make the playoffs).
9. Sacramento KingsAverage wins: 39.8Playoffs: 35%
While the Kings' projection is close to the 39 games they won last season, it still represents a huge step forward from this time a year ago. Sacramento's 26.1-win projection entering 2018-19 was the league's second lowest.
10. Minnesota TimberwolvesAverage wins: 39.5Playoffs: 32%
Minnesota star Karl-Anthony Towns told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated that observers should "keep sleeping on us," but statistical projections aren't. FiveThirtyEight's model is even more bullish on the Timberwolves, who average 43 wins in those projections.
11. San Antonio SpursAverage wins: 38.6Playoffs: 26%
If the Spurs were any other team, we'd look at their weak projections and rough preseason (San Antonio's minus-6.4 net rating ranked 28th in the league, per NBA Advanced Stats) and say their 22-year playoff streak is in grave jeopardy. However, betting against Gregg Popovich's teams has typically been a losing proposition.
12. Phoenix SunsAverage wins: 38.2Playoffs: 23%
With Zion's injury, the Suns jumped New Orleans. The 8.2-win difference between Phoenix's RPM projection and the team's over/under win total (30) at Caesars Sportsbook is the single largest in the NBA.
13. New Orleans PelicansAverage wins: 37.5Playoffs: 19%
As noted in Friday's analysis of Williamson's injury, projecting him out for the team's first 20 games costs New Orleans 0.7 wins on average and drops the team's chances of making the playoffs from 22% beforehand.
14. Oklahoma City ThunderAverage wins: 36.7Playoffs: 15%
To illustrate the depth of this year's West, last year's No. 14 team in the projections was Sacramento at the aforementioned 26.1 wins. That depth could end up altering Oklahoma City's outlook. If the Thunder are actually 14th in the West, they'll likely trade impending free agent Danilo Gallinari by the deadline.
15. Memphis GrizzliesAverage wins: 32.4Playoffs: 3%
For a likely last-place team in their conference, the Grizzlies figure to be competitive behind veterans Jonas Valanciunas and Jae Crowder and their young core of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Remarkably, they win more games on average than the bottom four teams in the East.
1. Milwaukee BucksAverage wins: 50.7Playoffs: 99%
Though the Bucks' win projection is rather modest, they're the only team in the league forecast to finish in the top five in both offensive (fourth) and defensive (first) rating. Houston (second in offensive rating, sixth on defense) just misses out.
2. Boston CelticsAverage wins: 47.4Playoffs: 95%
Because of their strong perimeter defenders, the Celtics are projected to finish seventh in defensive rating. That might overstate Boston's potential with weakened rim protection after losing both Al Horford and Aron Baynes.
3. Philadelphia 76ersAverage wins: 47.2Playoffs: 95%
As a reminder, Philadelphia's modest win projection owes in large part to both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons being projected for 66 games based on time missed over the past three seasons. While that seems reasonable for Embiid, who has averaged 63.5 games the past two years, it's harsh for Simmons. After sitting out his entire first season, Simmons played all but four games over 2017-18 and 2018-19.
4. Orlando MagicAverage wins: 46.4Playoffs: 93%
Orlando still finishes fourth in the East on average, even with a shift to give Mo Bamba primary backup center minutes instead of the higher-rated Khem Birch. Bamba averaged 17.6 minutes to Birch's 12.8 in the preseason and is looking more productive than he was as a rookie.
5. Toronto RaptorsAverage wins: 45.8Playoffs: 91%
The Kyle Lowry extension makes it all the more likely that the Raptors will keep what's left of the championship team intact and contend for home-court advantage in the first round instead of tearing it down at midseason. Of course, big changes will likewise shift their projections.
6. Miami HeatAverage wins: 43.0Playoffs: 78%
Despite the excitement over his preseason play, Tyler Herro projects worse than replacement level as a rookie based on his translated performance at Kentucky. In particular, Herro is unlikely to keep shooting so well on jumpers. He made 20 of 38 attempts outside the paint during the preseason (53%), as compared to 41% in college, according to Synergy Sports tracking.
7. Indiana PacersAverage wins: 42.2Playoffs: 73%
A key question for the Pacers is when Victor Oladipo will return from a quadriceps tendon rupture and how much he'll play thereafter. Oladipo is projected here for 49 games and a little less than 1,400 minutes under the assumption he'll be back in mid-December.
8. Brooklyn NetsAverage wins: 41.3Playoffs: 65%
It's worth watching how well the Nets play defensively. Their 109.0 defensive rating last season was almost exactly league average, but the team's top six regulars in on-court defensive rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats (Ed Davis, Shabazz Napier, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, DeMarre Carroll, Allen Crabbe and Treveon Graham) all left over the offseason. That helps explain why Brooklyn is projected to decline to 23rd defensively.
9. Detroit PistonsAverage wins: 39.6Playoffs: 52%
Detroit's projection benefits slightly from the news that preseason standout Christian Wood will make the team. Giving him some of the minutes previously assigned to Thon Maker strengthens the Pistons' rotation in terms of projected RPM.
10. Chicago BullsAverage wins: 38.9Playoffs: 46%
Similarly, Chicago could benefit if opening-night starter Tomas Satoransky establishes himself as the clear choice at point guard ahead of Kris Dunn and rookie Coby White, who projects as an ineffective contributor during his first season.
11. Washington WizardsAverage wins: 33.0Playoffs: 9%
The Wizards project as a deep fringe playoff contender in the East exclusively because of All-Star shooting guard Bradley Beal. He alone projects to 9.2 wins above replacement based on RPM, as compared to 1.3 wins below replacement for the rest of the Washington roster.
12. Atlanta HawksAverage wins: 30.7Playoffs: 3%
After a strong second half, the Hawks are a trendy pick to take a step forward this season. That hype is likely a year ahead of schedule. There's scant evidence that in-season improvement tends to carry over to the following campaign, and Atlanta is projected to finish 28th in defensive rating.
13. Charlotte HornetsAverage wins: 30.1Playoffs: 3%
Despite significant rotation adjustments as the Hornets committed to their young players during the preseason, starting recent first-round picks Miles Bridges and PJ Washington together at forward, the Hornets' win projection barely budged at all -- probably an indication Charlotte is right to sit the veterans.
14. Cleveland CavaliersAverage wins: 26.2Playoffs: <1%
The Cavaliers' final record may depend largely on how much Kevin Love plays this season after being limited to 22 games in 2018-19. He's projected here for 60 games and about 1,700 minutes, similar to his 2017-18 total. Cleveland was 6.9 points per 100 possessions better with Love on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats.
15. New York KnicksAverage wins: 26.1Playoffs: <1%
Out of the 10,000 simulations of the season, the Knicks made the playoffs a league-low 31 times -- 0.3% of the time.
― lag∞n, Tuesday, 22 October 2019 22:03 (nine months ago) link
You know you're in trouble when:
"The Cavaliers' final record may depend largely on how much Kevin Love plays this season"
― DJI, Tuesday, 22 October 2019 23:26 (nine months ago) link
― micah, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 19:50 (nine months ago) link
Like most things with the Pacers, there’s a lot of newness and a lot of questions. There’s much that cannot be answered until opening night arrives and beyond, when the coaches have real games to coach and video to learn from.
Of the Pacers’ 17-man roster, which includes two players on two-way deals, more than half the team is new to Indianapolis, new to the Pacers and, most of all, new to each other. Myles Turner is the only returning starter. The talent this bunch has is obvious, but what about the chemistry?
For example, Turner and Domantas Sabonis arrived in town later than the rest after playing in the World Cup in China. Most of the team moved to Indy in early September; they arrived Sept. 25. Training camp opened a couple of days later.
Opening night falls on Wednesday, Oct. 23, the 85th birthday of Pacers owner Herb Simon and less than a month since the Pacers’ frontcourt returned. At least they already know coach Nate McMillan’s offensive and defensive principles.
Wednesday is also is exactly nine months from when Victor Oladipo dropped to the court after rupturing his right quad tendon. He will be on the bench (but unavailable) for the first regular-season game since that night. He also intends to travel with the team to most games.
Longtime assistant coach Dan Burke will be in his usual seat near the front of the bench. He’s served as a Pacers assistant since Larry Bird hired him in 1997, making him the longest-tenured assistant coach with the same team in the NBA.
So it’s no surprise that when the annual survey of NBA GMs came out this week, Burke finished tied in first for best assistant coach in the league, along with Chris Finch (New Orleans) and David Vanterpool (Minnesota).
“I’ve known that for a long time,” McMillan said. “I’m not in front (of him), he’s beside me. DB does a great job. I’ve worked and had some really good assistants in this league, and he has the experience. I don’t even call him DB, I call him coach. I’ve always had that respect for him since joining the Pacers (in 2013) when Frank (Vogel) was in charge and I was an assistant working with him. The guy does his job.
“Since I’ve met him years ago, nothing has changed. He comes in every single day and he motivates you. A guy that works that hard, you can’t come in not prepared.”
One of the Pacers’ offseason priorities was to upgrade the offense. They needed more weapons, more shooters and more scorers. Getting swept in the first round — they averaged 91.8 points per game without Oladipo — drove that point home.
Defensively, though, they lost their free safety in Thad Young (to Chicago) and a solid wing defender in Bojan Bogdanovic (to Utah). Fortunately, at least, they have time to figure it out. Detroit’s Blake Griffin is out for the next several weeks, and the Pacers face the Pistons three times in the first nine games, including on opening night. Their first real test isn’t until Nov. 15 in Houston.
Last season, the Pacers ranked third in defensive rating (106), sixth in field-goal percentage defense (45), fifth in points off turnovers allowed (14.9) and 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage (72.2). McMillan emphasized rebounding and transition defense all camp. And over the next few months, the team must find its identity, learn to communicate effectively and set a rotation.
How might the Pacers do this season defensively? In a recent chat with The Athletic, the Pacers’ defensive coordinator discussed what he saw in camp.
How is the defense taking shape with this new group?
I spent the summer, first off, starting with Domas and Myles. If they are going to start together, play together, how much do we tweak to accommodate that? Do we even talk about a zone? Do we zone up the help side inverted?
The character we have — you see it already — even with the nine new guys. They care. They care about guarding their man. They care about helping their teammate. They care about doing what we’re asking them to do. So we’re going to stay with a lot of what we’ve been doing. Jeremy Lamb is asking questions every day. There’s an eagerness there. T.J. Warren, that last game in India, asked me at halftime, “So what do you typically do here? Allow 25 points a quarter or what?” Of course, I lied and said, “No, man, 20, 22.” And we went out there in that second half and I think in the first 15 possessions we had 13 spots. Now, both teams were stiff and tired as heck, but the eagerness and the building of what we are used to doing here, I think there’s a care there that we can build on and get these guys on board without a lot of changes.
We have more length, so we could maybe talk about switching more. We just never switch because it was easier, we never switch because (they’re) the same size. We want to switch if we have the same talent. I think right now we’re on the same path how we’ve been doing things — with an idea that it might not last. Depends how it goes.
Do you have that elite wing defender to guard players like Giannis or LeBron?
It turned out the other night in India, just happenstance, we kind of subbed without coach really knowing it. At the end of the game, we put Justin Holiday out there, and he went right to Hield. It was at the end of Game 1. I didn’t tell him to go to Buddy Hield. We knew that’s who he was going with. Jeremy was on Buddy Hield, and I was kind of interested in seeing how Jeremy was going to do. And then we had two bigs in and at the last second, instead of asking coach — there wasn’t enough time — I just went “Justin, get in.” I think it was for Domas (Sabonis). And Jeremy saw him coming in and he put him on Buddy, and he went on the ball. And it was a hell of a move. Then at the end of overtime, I saw that and he draped all over him. Maybe he’s that guy.
I don’t know if he’s that guy say six, seven or eight minutes in a game yet or not. But T.J. Warren is eager as hell to be that guy. And, as you’ve guys have been told when you were little, how much defense is desire. We’re going to try to grab onto that desire and see if he can be that guy. Maybe T.J. and Justin are in there together and Justin guards the better guy and T.J. the other guy. … We’re still trying to learn. But I love what I see as far as the determination to execute down on the defensive end.
Is Warren like Bogdanovic in that he’s got a reputation as a poor defender but he hadn’t been asked or made to do it in the past?
I think so. I see it. He’s got great length, and he has pretty good speed. His feet are good. I don’t see any reason. Now I don’t know what his experience was in Phoenix; I haven’t even asked him. I know Dave West grabbed me and said, “Take care of my guy. He hasn’t had structure, DB. He hasn’t had structure.” Does that mean he wasn’t asked to play defense? That stuff I really don’t want to know. I want to judge him with what I see and coach him the way I’m used to coaching guys. Right now, all these guys can be coached, they can be pushed, and anytime you can do that with a group of guys, you have a chance. I think T.J. is going to surprise people on the defensive end. He looks like he has great pride in that. And right now I’ve had to tell him coach is lying about I don’t want to say “Giddy up,” I want to say, “Whoa!” Right now, I don’t have to say “whoa” to T.J. because he’s trying to bust everything up. It’s impressive.
When did you talk to David West about him?
In Vegas. And the night we traded for him on draft night. He texted me right away and said he was going to call me, but we talked in Vegas when T.J. came to meet the team. David loves him, and he came up through his AAU (program). And David isn’t just about basketball. He’s talking to these guys about their studies or life after basketball and to learn a skill. He even wants to teach some of his kids how to weld. You got to learn the trade, yeah. That’s D-West, man.
(Randy Belice / NBAE via Getty Images)You’ve coached some really good defensive teams here. What’s the potential of this one?
Good question. One thing I could start with is I know potential hasn’t won any ballgames. Right now, I’ve seen a lot of good. A lot of good. Whatever our goals are going to be, top five or top ten, I usually don’t look at all those numbers. Coach puts them on the board, but I think we can still be one of those. Again, it will be interesting just what kind of mix we end up with when it really comes nut-cutting time.
Outside of points allowed, what stats are you most interested in?
Right away, to me, it’s defensive field goal percentage. I guess you got to add 3-point field goal percentage. I’m not too hung up on 3-point attempts. I think if we start talking that way, then our defense is going to be spread out. I think the average number of makes last year was 11 3-pointers made per game. That’s 33 points, and teams are averaging 110 (points per game), so where are those other points? So defensive field goal percentage, defensive rebounding percentage (are notable). We got to keep teams off the boards. If there’s two key areas, it’s the defensive rebounding and then transition. We allowed about 12 to 14 points last year in transition. That’s got to come down to 10.
If there was a fourth: free-throw attempts. We don’t want to be fouling just to foul. But then we chart challenges, the percentage of jumpers we are challenging. We chart deflections, and we play with little prizes for charges. Those first four are the key. I don’t want them buried with a bunch of numbers. Our goal is to challenge shots and defensive rebound every possession.
Having Sabonis in there instead of Thad Young makes you a better rebounding team, but not as good in transition defense.
Yeah, they’re going to try run us like crazy. We’ll be passing out track shoes instead of basketball shoes.
With so much talk about playing Turner and Sabonis, what’s the impact defensively?
I don’t know. (Laughs.) I really don’t. I’m watching closely. Right now, we’re asking Domas to do what our four man typically does. The one part that can spoil the soup is opponents like putting their four on Myles and their five on Domas, so now you’re running back cross-matching. We’re going to ask Myles to do the same. I’m watching it closely. Right now, we’re just asking Domas if he’s guarding the shooter to do his best and we’ll cover for you.
I think our offensive rebounding is going to help some of that transition defense. Offensive rebounding in the league has come down because it’s usually 3s and long shots. I think maybe we could make a little hay that way to help the defense. How much switching do you do with Domas and Myles out there? We just play solid like we have. In India, we forced turnovers and I don’t know how we forced turnovers, so we’re not gimmicking the game up, we’re not doing anything to force turnovers as far as switching and denying. But we’ve got active hands, we’re solid in the paint, and we force turnovers. We were up there (in forced turnovers) last year, too. People ask me how. (Laughs.) And we just got good character and great care.
― de-mamba mentality (Spottie), Wednesday, 23 October 2019 19:56 (nine months ago) link
― micah, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 20:19 (nine months ago) link
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 28 October 2019 18:38 (nine months ago) link
HOUSTON – If you took a quick peek at Daryl Morey’s Twitter timeline these past few days, you’d never know the Houston Rockets general manager was stuck in the eye of a geopolitical storm just a few weeks ago.
There was a series of three tweets on Thursday promoting the start of this Rockets regular season, followed by more hoops-themed tweets on Friday and even a baseball tweet sent on Sunday.
“(Houston Astros pitcher Gerrit) Cole is going to channel this guy tonight,” he wrote just hours before the Astros’ Game 5 victory in the World Series, and above a picture of famed rapper M.C. Hammer performing his 80s hit, Can’t Touch This.
All in all, it’s pretty light social media fare. It doesn’t take a Rockets scientist to figure out this is all by design.
Morey is getting back to the basketball again, weeks after his “Fight for Freedom, Stand with Hong Kong” tweet on Oct. 4 sparked a wave of backlash from the Chinese government and forced the NBA to face uncomfortable questions about its own values and how they reconcile (or perhaps don’t) with the endless pursuit of the almighty dollar. His Rockets are in the early stages of learning how to make the most of Russell Westbrook, the former Oklahoma City Thunder star who Morey landed via trade back in July and who will face his old team for the first time on Monday night at the Toyota Center.
There are plenty of rival executives and owners around the NBA who would like to hear from Morey on the China-Hong Kong front, but he clearly has no plans to address it beyond the two tweets he sent explaining his side back on Oct. 6. Rockets officials have made it clear that Morey is free to speak on the matter if he so pleases, but he will instead move on.
Which brings us to this interview.
Three months before his retweet heard ’round the world, Morey pulled off one of the summer’s many stunners by landing the former MVP in Westbrook, who has four seasons and $171.1 million combined left on his deal (with a player option for 2022-23). The cost was substantial: Chris Paul (three seasons, $124 million combined left with a player option for 2021-22), two protected first-round picks (2024 and 2026, both protected 1-4), and picks swaps in 2021 (protected 1-4 and, per The Athletic’s Shams Charania, OKC can swap with the Clippers pick or the Miami pick) and 2025 (protected 1-20).
The end result, as he discussed with The Athletic after declining to address the NBA’s China controversy, came after a five-day stretch of negotiating while at summer league in Las Vegas that Morey describes as the “most intense” of any deal he has ever done. Considering the reputation he has earned in these past 12 years, that’s no small statement.
Morey, who began heading the Rockets front office in 2007, is widely known as one of the most aggressive executives in the league. Yet after two banner seasons with Paul, in which they came so close to getting past the then-mighty Golden State Warriors, this was the kind of franchise-altering trade that had to be studied from every angle before the final call was made.
With Paul returning to town Monday and Westbrook wearing Rockets red now after spending his first 11 seasons in Thunder blue and orange, and reuniting with his old Thunder buddy in James Harden, Morey agreed to discuss the deal that will have everything to do with the league’s power structure for these next few seasons. The sides verbally agreed while Morey was taking an Uber to UNLV to watch a Rockets’ summer league game, and so it was that he turned around and headed back to the hotel with his staff to handle all the paperwork.
How close was it to not getting done? That same day, Morey had called Harden to tell him the deal was off. And then it was on again.
Morey and I spoke twice about the deal in recent days, with the first time coming on Friday and the second on Sunday.
Friday, one day after the Rockets fell 117-111 to Milwaukee at home
So on the decision to bring Russ to town, I wondered specifically about the style clash (between Paul and Westbrook) and how that came into account. For the last several years, you have this formulaic approach where you drill down on taking threes or being at the rim. But with Russ, the nature of his game is more helter-skelter, faster paced; he’s going to live in the midrange a little bit. How did you process all of that as you broke this deal down and how does it change who you guys are on that end?
Yeah, we thought – and you mentioned it a little bit – we thought we needed to add someone who might have an extra gear. While we were a very good team – and I’ve actually been asked, ‘Is this the best Rockets team?’ and I think we have a chance at that, but I do have to point to our team a few years ago, which won more games than very few teams in history at 65 (regular season wins), so we’ve got a ways to prove that we’re as good as that team that came very close. But with Russell here, I think we have a shot to be the best Rockets team since I’ve been here, and maybe since the championship teams (in 1994 and 1995), but we’ve got a long ways to go to show that.
Step One would have been to beat a very likely Finals team in Milwaukee in Game One, so that was frustrating. But in terms of Russell, he’s got an extra gear for key moments. I think we saw that in the fourth quarter last night, where he had some plays that very few people in NBA history can make in terms of putting pressure on the D’ and disrupting on the other end as well.
You know, early in the season, you’re almost looking for trends more than just one game results – like, ‘What’s to come?’ and what things we need to watch. And we’ve had some real downer Game Ones in the past, where you feel like you’re putting your fingers in the dyke and trying to shore up issues. I saw a lot of things to build on more than things that we needed to shore up (in Game One).
What about the personal dynamics here? Today was the first time I got eyes on him in this environment. I even told him how strange he looked in red. It’s still kind of surreal that he’s playing for your team. But I also have some comical memories about coming to town in the (2016-17) season when he won MVP, and you and (former Rockets executive/current Minnesota GM) Gersonn (Rosas) giving me a hard time because of who I voted for that year (Westbrook)…
Morey, who made it clear at the time that he thought Harden should have won the award and that the widespread focus on Westbrook averaging a triple-double represented flawed logic, laughs…
I would still give you a hard time on that. For me, James has been the MVP for multiple years now. I don’t mind James losing the MVP, but I don’t like him losing it to, you know, simple labels (laughs again), which I felt like happened that year. It was never anything against the player. It was really more like – maybe not you personally – but the way many (voters) justified their pick that year I thought was a departure from how it had been selected in the past. It really had more to do with how people were viewing it than the player, so…
Which I get. But now that he’s on your squad, I’m curious about the relationship aspect with the two of you guys. Do you feel like you’ve gotten to know him in these past few months? What has he been like within your culture?
Yeah, he’s been refreshing. He’s been like a lot of players, where you hear stories and narratives and obviously he’s in the past maybe had some contentious relationships with media and things like that. So you never know what to think, but he’s been a dream. I think there is still a legitimate question to figure out: Does chemistry come from winning, or does chemistry drive winning? I still think that’s a reasonable question (as was widely reported last summer, the Rockets tension had been on the rise before the deal). And as usual, the people on the extremes are probably wrong. The answer is probably in the middle. But if chemistry drives winning, then we’re in very good shape this year. We’ve got a vibe going, and obviously it’ll be tough with losses like (the season opener against the Bucks) and for sure going forward we’re going to have some losses – two in row, and hopefully not three in a row – but in terms of chemistry and that, we’ve got a really good thing going right now.
You chewed on this deal a lot, all through summer league. I remember being in Vegas and noticing the vibe had changed with your Rockets group, and (Athletic beat writer) Kelly (Iko) mentioned that to me at the time when he saw the group acting a certain way.
(Laughs) You were picking up hope, or whatever?
Exactly. But here’s the question: When it comes to big-time trades, (Lakers GM) Rob Pelinka was quoted recently about the (Anthony Davis trade with New Orleans in June), and he talked about how a lot of times deals live on the edge. And I wondered about this one, if it had that element to it.
Yeah, it did. It did. Mostly in the back and forth with Oklahoma City, and they did a really good job. It’s never easy to get a deal done. The difference between almost done and done feels like more than the distance between anything else – like, it’s more than half, for sure. But once we knew that the opportunity was there, there was a lot of – obviously – discussion, debates, analysis, back and forth with OKC. So there was a lot – a lot going on. It was a very intense period.
Actually, when people tell me now that it was only five days from when we knew there was a chance to when it happened, it felt like two months honestly. Like, it was a really, really intense period. I’ve talked about it being the biggest risk…but people, I think, misinterpreted that I meant Russell (was the risk). But I meant more like – whenever you give up a significant chunk of your future, it’s (a risk). If I have any job – and sometimes I’m the only one worried about it – it’s how do I properly balance the present and the future. When you’re giving up future (assets), I need to be really careful that I’m making sure the franchise is protected for (owner) Tilman (Fertitta) and things like that.
When you call it intense, where does it fall in context for you in terms of intense transactions you’ve done?
Well, prior to the deal happening, it was by far the most. I’d say the Chris Paul deal that got canceled (by the NBA)was the most intense after (the deal), but prior to a deal, yeah. I don’t think anything was close, actually.
What were the main moving parts that might have pushed this thing one way or the other. I’ve heard you guys had to look hard at Russ’ health history, and all the procedures that he’s had and chew on the question of how that projects going forward. You have to look at Chris’ age and where he’s going. There are so many layers to this, what was the short list for you?
Well yeah, you named a few, so for sure those. The quality of the drafts you’re giving up, the swaps and what value to place on those, what years for the picks, because there was a lot of back and forth on that. How many picks? Other elements, other players maybe. It’s honestly – you could analyze it forever, and we came damn close, it felt like.
Whenever you’re making a big investment – we obviously made a big investment in Chris (by giving him a four-year, $160 million deal in the summer of 2018), and we don’t do those without everyone being comfortable and feeling like it’s the right move. And then obviously, this is a big investment in Russell. Again, any time there’s a big investment, if I have any job it’s to make sure that those investments are quality investments and increase our championship odds. That’s really the job, more than anything else. Really, nothing else was worked on for multiple days by, you know – all hands on deck.
Sunday, one day after the Rockets downed New Orleans 126-123 at home
What can you share, if anything, about the part James played and how that unfolded? How much teamwork was there between the two of you here?
Yeah, a lot of teamwork. I mean, with James at a high (communication) level, and obviously he felt like (Westbrook) could be a good fit here. He was curious if there was a way to do it where we could keep everyone and not have to give up anything (laughs). Unfortunately the math of the deal required Chris going out, unfortunately.
Just to make sure I’m hearing you there, James wanted to know if there was a way of doing it without losing Chris?
Yeah, because I mean his mind is always (going) first to ‘How (can we be) completely stacked?’ So I had to sort of explain. He gets it roughly, but obviously he leaves the details to us. Besides the high level (talks) where he thought that Russ would be a great fit here, there’s not a ton of interaction after that point. He knows there’s a back and forth, just like we respect what he does I think he respects what we do and he sort of leaves the execution to us.
I kept him appraised, because it felt like it was going to fall apart and back together a few times there. When I let him know it probably wasn’t going to happen, he was good. He understood. He said, ‘Hey, if there’s a way to make it happen, let’s do it,’ but he understands that you can’t just snap your fingers and make things happen in the NBA. No one is out there trying to help us. It’s always a dynamic when you’re trying to get the deal done. The good thing is we have a long relationship with him. And seven years in, he gets how it works and leaves it mostly to us to do our jobs once he gives the high level (feedback of) ‘Hey, I played with this guy. He’d be a good fit.
What was the timestamp on when you told him it wasn’t going to happen?
I mean the day it happened, I thought it wasn’t going to happen. I talked to James that day, and he obviously was disappointed but was understanding.
So I’ve assumed that this all began with James and Russ connecting, first and foremost. And the word has to get relayed to you that Russ wants to come. In what form did that cross your desk?
Yeah, I mean I try not to get into that because I have to be careful that we’re never getting involved with other team’s players. So whenever I talk to him, I keep it a high level (by asking) ‘Do you think he’d be a good fit here?’
So last one for you, here. I wanted to get your read on the interview Tilman did with (Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd) recently, and the inference he made that near the finish line of the deal – and this was his wording – the front office got “maybe a little weak at the end.” The way he framed it, I thought it was fair to see how that hit you.
Yeah, no I think all of that comes down similar to what I answered before, which is that the thing that was difficult in this trade isn’t getting Russell Westbrook, obviously. You’ve already seen how great of a fit he is. It’s really what you have to give up. You only have so many resources that you can use to improve the team, continue to improve the team and also protect the franchise if, in the future, things aren’t going as well, and you have draft picks to rebuild and things like that. So yeah, at various points of the deal we thought that what we were giving up was very challenging to agree to. My sense is that’s what Tilman was referring to is the price in draft picks, primarily, and maybe other things – other sort of medium level things that we had to work through.
Where were you when the deal got done?
I was in an Uber on the way to our game at summer league. …I turned around when we got to Thomas & Mack, and then turned around and went right back to the hotel to finalize all the details.
― de-mamba mentality (Spottie), Monday, 28 October 2019 18:41 (nine months ago) link
Thx! Interesting that Harden was making an effort (or at least Morley says he was) to figure out how to keep cp3. Having watched both nu-rockets games so far, they look like a much more interesting team to me. am appreciating the refs appearing to not let harden dictate each and every foul so far this season.
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Monday, 28 October 2019 18:55 (nine months ago) link
Scott Brooks is building an offense from scratch … for the first time
By Fred Katz Oct 21, 2019 11 WASHINGTON — Scott Brooks is familiar with his critics, and he knows when they’re playing the hits.
He rolls the ball out for his point guards and waits for them to handle the complicated stuff. Or maybe his offenses are unimaginative. Or his attacks are prone to one-on-one play and top heaviness.
Then again, so has been his personnel.
Brooks is entering his 10th full season as an NBA head coach and yet, never before this year has he gone into training camp with a roster like the one he has now. For the first time, he won’t be building a scheme around a superhumanly athletic, ball-dominant, pick-and-roll reliant point guard. Every other autumn, Russell Westbrook in OKC or John Wall in D.C. — arguably the NBA’s two most physically imposing floor generals throughout Brooks’ career — have dictated at least some of the team’s style for their coach.
But oh, how things have changed today.
“You play to the talent that you have,” Brooks said. “And I had incredible point guards who are dynamic.”
“Had” is the operative word here. Westbrook is a character from Brooks’ past and Wall will miss potentially all of this season with an Achilles rupture.
Sure, Bradley Beal, now Washington’s best player, is a deserving All-Star, but he operates more off the ball than Wall. And when he has it, he doesn’t handle for quite as long. The newly signed Ish Smith, who will start at point guard, doesn’t require a particular kind of system.
Brooks has coached so long that he began his career when George W. Bush was still president. LeBron James was in Cleveland … the first time. The basketball community has a decade’s worth of data on him — and finally, because the veteran coach is missing a commanding presence to corner him into a style, it is about to find out how a baked-from-scratch Brooks system truly runs. With all five preseason games done, he’s configured an offense that (if it goes as planned) is one his critics might actually enjoy.
No rolling the ball out for his point guard. Less isolation. Less of the one-man-creates-all mentality that’s consumed Brooks’ offenses for as long as we can all remember. It might look good. It might not. But at last, the NBA world will get to see what a raw Brooks offense, one that isn’t necessarily influenced for him, will look like.
“It’s great, because we have a group that wants to hoop. It’s plain and simple,” Beal said. “We don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be. Everybody knows their role. Everybody is a capable shooter in here, too. So the way our offense is ran, everybody will have ample opportunities to get shots and get the ball.”
It’s not like Brooks has had Wall by his side in recent years. The point guard missed half of the 2017-18 season and the final 50 games of last year. But the Wizards didn’t know those injuries were coming. They went into training camp during each of those seasons thinking Wall was good to go. And there’s something to be said for that.
A coach can change some plays midseason or reconfigure roles if unexpected performance forces his hand, but any NBA coach will tell you: No one can implement a completely new system midway through the year. It’s why coaches need training camp.
“It’s no fun having John out the last two now going on three years, missing 40 (games) and 50 and then potentially a lot of the season now. That’s no fun. I’d rather have him,” Brooks said. “The last two years, I didn’t go in, like ‘OK, we’re gonna design something with John not here. Be ready, guys. This game is when he’s going to get hurt.’ So, we had to adjust on the fly. And it’s hard, especially when you have a John type of point guard, who’s so great at what he does.”
And so, here’s Brooks using training camp and five preseason games to show off a more obvious ‘systemy’ system than he ever has.
So far — and yes, “so far” means during the preseason, a time when any and all prognostications and profundities should stay locked up — the offense has changed quite a bit.
The Wizards aren’t running as much pick-and-roll unless it’s with Beal and Thomas Bryant. How could they? They’re missing Wall, one of the few non-3-point dependent point guards still reliant on a big man coming to screen for him up top as his remaining three teammates spread to the arc. Westbrook remains another.
They include far more dribble hand-offs, especially with Bryant, who’s become a featured part of the offense. There’s more weak-side cutting, which is easier to implement when scoring isn’t as reliant on one guy. Passes to passers are more common. Big men are stretching to the 3-point line constantly. Brooks wants guys heaving up triples at all costs. The Wizards shot the second-most 3s per game during the preseason.
“(We) actually (did) better than I thought we would do with all the new guys and all the players that don’t have a lot of NBA experience,” Brooks said. “I thought it was gonna be more spells of not being able to generate enough scores, but we’ve had a lot of good moments.”
Let’s be clear about this: The Wizards are not better without the healthy version of Wall. They’re playing this way because they have no other choice. Brooks spent 10 years putting the ball in the hands of Westbrook and Wall because he felt that was the best way to use them. At a basic level, it was.
At an even more basic one, once he gets past the sympathy he has for Wall dealing with such a serious injury and the low spirits he has for himself and the organization going through most or all of the year without a five-time All-Star, there has to be something fun about outlining new schemes with a new roster.
This isn’t to say Brooks is on the verge of spinning an offense reminiscent of the 2014 Spurs. It’s merely to point out that we have 10 years of evidence showing how Brooks handles a specific kind of situation. And now, he’s in a new one.
At the core of every NBA coach is a basketball nerd. If, after all this, the Wizards still spend a season looking stagnant, then those classic Brooks criticisms will come roaring back. But if this works better than expected, Brooks’ nerdy side will force a question that should be asked about pretty much any coach: How much of what we think of him is because of his coaching, and how much of what we think is because of his situation?
“We’re gonna have to play scrappy,” Brooks said. “Our identity has to be ball moving and everybody has to touch it. We all know Brad is gonna be critical to that success. He’s gonna touch it enough. But we gotta get everybody else involved, as well.”
― de-mamba mentality (Spottie), Thursday, 21 November 2019 21:09 (eight months ago) link
― Clay, Thursday, 21 November 2019 23:48 (eight months ago) link
thought this was really interesting and convincinghttps://theathletic.com/1360529/2019/11/20/hollinger-the-three-shot-foul-is-a-bad-rule-badly-enforced-with-bad-side-effects-it-needs-to-go/
― k3vin k., Friday, 22 November 2019 03:08 (eight months ago) link
When can we say an NBA rule change failed?
I can think of four potential reasons: When the punishment doesn’t fit the crime, when the officials have difficulty calling it correctly, when it encourages behavior it was originally designed to discourage, or when it takes the game in a worse direction.
In the case of the three-shot foul, we’re a perfect 4-for-4. It’s a bad rule, badly enforced, that encourages bad behavior and stylistic monotony.
The three-shot foul has been around almost as long as the 3-pointer itself. At first, it wasn’t a big deal – three-shot fouls were extremely rare. Two things changed that. First, players slowly realized that the three-shot penalty was a completely outsized response to a minor crime and modified their behavior accordingly – beginning with the exaggerated side leg kicks of Reggie Miller. This move, theoretically outlawed in 2012, remains a popular way of duping refs into a three-shot foul.
Worsening matters, recent points of emphasis from the league have made it illegal to breathe on shooters increased protection for shooters, essentially guaranteeing the shooter no contact from takeoff to landing, no matter how bizarre a path he took en route. That change, in particular, has brought on a barrage of three-shot fouls from shooters jumping forward and adjusting their landing point to collide into a closing defender, or dangling legs at the last minute, hoping to catch a body.
It’s not just James Harden either. Here’s Bryn Forbes, for instance, coming to a nice controlled stop in transition and then suddenly vaulting forward on his shot and jackknifing his legs so they can catch Kevin Huerter.
If you want more examples, believe me, I have them.
My modest proposal is that the league goes back to a two-shot foul penalty for the first 46 minutes of the game. In the last two minutes, when several other minor rules also change, it can keep the three-shot foul to prevent egregious intentional fouling by teams with three-point leads.
Why would this improve the game? Let’s go through the weaknesses, one by one.
Penalty doesn’t fit the crimeThis is by far my biggest gripe, and it’s a crucial component to understanding every other reason the three-shot foul is awful. I don’t think a lot of people fully understand how absurdly rich the 3-shot reward is for a common shooting foul.
Pardon me while I take you through some my math. It won’t be terrible, I promise.
First things first — 3-pointers barely produce any more points than 2-pointers, on average. The league hits 35.2 percent of its 3s and 52.0 percent of its 2s last season, meaning both shots produced nearly identical expected returns – 1.04 points for 2s, 1.06 points for 3s.
From that perspective, giving an additional shot for a shooting foul on a 3-pointer compared to a 2-pointer makes no sense — the shooter wasn’t likely to score more points on the initial shot.
But the return on a shooting foul for these types is now radically different. Using league averages, the expected return on a 3-shot foul is 2.33 points – three times the league average free throw rate (76.6 percent), plus a small dollop for the possibility of an offensive board on a missed third shot. (Only about 11 percent of missed free throws are rebounded by the offense, and only 23.9 percent of them are missed in the first place. Ballpark the average ROI on an offensive board is 1.2 points, leading to whopping 0.03 point increase. In reality, teams try much harder on the offensive glass when awful foul shooters are at the line, but we’ll ignore that for the sake of methodological clarity here).
That contrasts with 1.56 points on a two-shot foul.
In reality, the ROI on a 3-shot foul is even better because of who draws those fouls. News flash: Andre Drummond and Dwight Howard aren’t getting fouled shooting 3s. Only threatening 3-point shooters draw these whistles, and most of them are very good free-throw shooters too. Additionally, second and third free throws convert at a slightly better than than the first one. As ESPN’s Kevin Pelton recently reported, players league-wide shot 87.1 percent on the third shot of a three-shot foul last season, compared to just 80 percent on the first attempt.
As a result, the expected ROI on 3-shot fouls isn’t 2.33 points, it’s actually more like 2.56 … a full point higher than the two-shot foul.
In fact, check this out: That return on a three-shot foul is so excessive that, on average, committing one is about as bad as committing a flagrant! The second shot on a flagrant can’t be rebounded, so the two shots on average are worth 1.53 points for the offense. The team then inbounds on a dead ball, which is the lowest efficiency initial condition for offense – yielding 1.07 points per possession last season, according to our Seth Partnow. That brings our total for the trip to 2.60 points.
So a three-shot foul hands the offense 2.56 points on average … and a flagrant gives it 2.60. It’s basically the same. Yikes.
To see how extreme a penalty it is, however, you need to understand not just the absolute value, but also the marginal value. A typical possession was worth 1.10 points in 2018-19 (I will use last year’s numbers for this exercise given the early stage of the season). As noted above, the average two-point shot was worth 1.04 (the league shot 52.0 percent on 2s), and an average 3-point shot was worth 1.06 (the league shot 35.3 percent on 3s). Offensive boards added an additional 0.13 points to the expectation on 2s and 0.18 on 3s. So that’s a marginal value of 0.07 points for a 2 (1.04+0.13-1.10), and 0.14 points for a 3 (1.06 + 0.18 – 1.10).
But a three-shot foul? Not only does it more than double the value of a possession, from 1.10 points to 2.56 points, but also its marginal value of 1.56 points dwarfs that of common fouls. Let’s see here how a 3-shot foul changes things:
Marginal value of shot types, 2018-19Three-shot foul 1.56Two-shot foul 0.46Average three-point attempt 0.14Average two-point attempt 0.07A two-shot foul produces a 0.39-point marginal return relative to just letting the guy shoot. That’s a fair penalty. The return on a three-shot foul, however, is 1.42 — nearly FOUR TIMES as much.
Again, the outsized penalty is a huge reason for this rule’s awfulness, because it influences all kinds of other behavior. A lot of it is subtle — for instance, here’s Damian Lillard with an attempt he would never consider if it weren’t for the fact that he might get three shots. Certainly he’s not trying to make a 3-point shot here.
This happens a lot, actually. A huge chunk of three-shot fouls are the result of players playing against the rules rather than the opponent — either guards like Lillard leaning into an ugly heave after turning the corner on a screen, or catch-and-shoot specialists kicking a leg out to reach out and tag a defender. Maybe he doesn’t get the call every time, but it’s the outsized return that makes the attempt worth the investment.
And here’s the beautiful basketball that same play yields when it doesn’t work:
It even impacts areas you wouldn’t consider — such as the coach’s challenge. From an ROI basis, far and away the best use of it is to challenge a leg-kick three-shot foul and turn 2.56 points into an offensive foul — to the point that coaches should probably save their challenge for three quarters in case one of these comes up.
More contact, not lessBecause of the outsized return on 3-shot fouls, and that players KNOW about the outsize return, they’ve modified their behavior accordingly. Rather than avoid collisions when they rise up for a jumper, smart players seek it out. As a result, a mission designed to protect shooters and reduce contact (and hopefully injuries) has had the unintended consequence of increasing it. Several players — not even elite ones — have quickly adopted the habit of kicking their non-shooting leg out and forward in hopes of attracting a three-shot foul, creating conditions for ankle sprains rather than removing them. It’s exactly what the league was originally trying to prevent.
It’s remarkable to see how much players’ behavior changes on 3-point jump shots versus two-point jump shots. The clip above with Forbes is a great example, but it’s not hard to find others. In fact, it’s not hard to find them with Bryn Forbes (or any other volume 3-point shooter, for that matter) … and you can actually see it the most in clips where players aren’t fouled. Here is Forbes searching out contact with his right leg, hoping he can tag Terrence Ferguson and create a 3-shot collision.
For a more egregious example, here is T.J. Warren’s submission into the pantheon, just praying he can get a piece of Cedi Osman with his right leg:
Now that you’ve seen it NOT work, here’s what it looks like when it does. Kelly Oubre was awarded three shots for this bit of ridiculousness:
More subtly, here’s Kemba Walker rising up with his left leg well behind him and behind the 3-point line. George Hill’s feet never totally cross the 3-point line, yet somehow “foul” Kemba’s left leg by being in position to receive Kemba’s love tap. For a right-handed shooter, this is, um, not natural:
For a more common example, it’s possible James Harden would have been fouled on this play by Dillon Brooks anyway, but he sticks out his left leg to make sure of it.
OK, fine, let’s talk about HardenIn particular, his left leg. Here’s another one. In real time it looks like Jimmy Butler annihilated him. Zapruder it and you see Harden rise up for a normal shot before he sees Butler and plays tag with his left leg.
And again, more blatantly, here he gets the Nets’ Taurean Prince with a piece of extended-leg absurdity only highlighted by Brooklyn’s monochrome court palette.
Finally, let’s give credit where it’s due. Shout out to Tyler Ford, who nabbed Harden here on his leg kick. Not all heroes wear capes. I don’t think it’s an accident that he made the call from behind the play and a bit away from it — the ref on the sideline is actually too close to see both the hands and feet of the shooter. More on that in a minute.
The Refs can’t call it correctlyAnother unintended consequence of the three-shot foul is that it highlights how awful the officials are at calling it. It’s not their fault — it has to do with their position on the court and the impossibility of what’s asked of them.
We’re giving a huge reward on a play where a significant portion of the calls are just flat-out wrong.
You think I’m just going to pull more Harden clips? Think again. Here’s our very first three-shot foul of the season, an egregious leg kick by New Orleans’ Kenrich Williams that should have been an offensive foul (if not a flagrant); the dude basically tripped Pascal Siakam in midair.
Sideways leg kicks by shooters are very difficult for officials to see due to the geography of the court. We don’t want officials standing in the middle of it, for good reason. But most 3-point attempts either come from the corner, or from the top of the key — the two places an official standing at the coach’s box is mostly like to be looking from a straight-on vantage point. That gives them little to no depth perception to see if a leg is kicked sideways or straight out, making them suckers for preying shooters. We can’t always see it from the camera angle, either.
Props to Eric Dalen, who missed the Williams call above but nails Forbes with the left leg maneuver on a very difficult to see call here:
The other issue that comes up is that sometimes the officials are too close, particular on wing 3-point attempts. They can’t possibly be looking at both hands and feet when the players are right on top of them, so they have to guess. Here’s a clip where Tom Washington ends up with both the shooter and defender right in his lap and essentially has to blindly extrapolate whether the shooter’s leg got clipped. Combined with Harden’s left-leg voodoo, you can guess the result.
Before we finish, I should point out something else — I’m only pointing out one kind of error in these clips. Officials also struggle to correctly identify three-shot fouls for some of the same reasons I’ve listed above, something the Rockets outlined last spring before the Golden State series in their Magna Gripe-a missive to the league office. Again, these are huge calls (or misses) because the penalty is so severe.
Is this the game you want?Hey, all you midrange jumper fans — now is your chance to chime in. All we’ve done with the three-shot foul is further incentivize every single team to tilt even more toward the same monolithic outcome of spreading the floor and shooting a ton of catch-and-shoot 3s.
With defenses disincentivized from challenging the shot, and the occasional super bonus of a 3-shot foul juicing expected returns from the strategy, teams would be crazy NOT to go in that direction. Anybody who wants to see some stylistic distinctions left in this league should at least be thinking about how to favor the 3-point shot a bit less. Changing the three-shot foul is one obvious, lightly intrusive means.
So, summing it all up: The three-shot foul creates a massively disproportionate penalty to the crime committed, on a play type that officials have difficulty calling correctly. It also likely creates more contact and injury potential rather than reducing it, and incentivizes both boorish behavior and stylistic monotony that make the game less entertaining. The league can go back to three shots in the final two minutes to eliminate intentional fouling incentives late in games; we already have several other rules that change in the last two minutes.
But for the first 46 minutes, it’s clearly a bad rule. And if you still don’t think so, let me leave you with this magical piece of basketball from Trae Young as my parting gift:
Simply changing it to a two-short foul would eliminate a lot of the worst incentives and cheap foul-hunting, while also introducing a more fair penalty for a shot that isn’t any more valuable than 2-pointer at the time of release.
The three-shot foul stinks. It’s time for it to go.
yup. open and shut case imo.
― call all destroyer, Friday, 22 November 2019 03:19 (eight months ago) link
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Friday, 22 November 2019 03:48 (eight months ago) link
yeah i've always been in favor of doing that
― ciderpress, Friday, 22 November 2019 04:21 (eight months ago) link
anybody on this?https://bballwriters.com/opinion/where-we-hit-and-missed-on-nba-season-predictions-so-far/
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses), Wednesday, 11 December 2019 19:35 (eight months ago) link
anyone got a truehoop subscription?https://www.truehoop.com/p/what-is-spooking-lonzo-ball
― de-mamba mentality (Spottie), Friday, 13 December 2019 21:18 (seven months ago) link
dam lot of subscription basketball sites out there now
― lag∞n, Saturday, 14 December 2019 04:38 (seven months ago) link
― mookieproof, Saturday, 14 December 2019 04:48 (seven months ago) link
feel the love
― A is for (Aimless), Saturday, 14 December 2019 04:50 (seven months ago) link
NBA draft international scouting notebook: Lottery picks, more intel
Deni Avdija is a top-10 prospect in ESPN's 2020 NBA draft rankings. Jim Dedmon/USA TODAY Sports4:44 AM MTJonathan GivonyESPNFacebookTwitterFacebook MessengerPinterestEmailprintWhat's the latest on the top international prospects in the 2020 NBA draft class?
ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony recently spent 10 days in Europe evaluating many of the most intriguing players teams are scouting for this season, as well as some notable young prospects for future drafts.
Here are the highlights of what he learned on his 14-game, nine-country trip across the Atlantic Ocean, including intel on projected lottery picks Deni Avdija and Killian Hayes, potential sleepers and more of the draft's risers and fallers abroad.
SpainThe prestigious L'Hospitalet tournament in Barcelona brought together eight junior teams featuring several prospects for the 2021 and 2022 drafts in a one-day, six-game stop.
The NBA Global Academy team went 5-0 with the deepest, most talented roster in the tournament. We've been following the NBA academy venture closely the past three years, and it's impressive to see how quickly it has been able to recruit and develop talent. Several players put themselves on the draft radar for scouts.
NBA mock draft: What would the likely lottery teams do at No. 1?
NBA draft rankings: The top 100 prospects for 2020Tournament MVP Josh Giddey, a 6-foot-8 guard who operated as the academy's playmaker while often guarding 4s in small-ball lineups, showed his versatility with an impressive line of 19 points, 14 rebounds and 8 assists per 40 minutes. Without great length, size or explosiveness, Giddey relies on feel, creativity and swagger to separate himself. You'll often see him throw an outlet pass the length of the floor with his off-hand off a live dribble and then make an impeccable read operating out of pick-and roll. His lack of traditional athleticism, streaky jumper, upright defensive stance and at-times inability to beat longer players off the dribble mean he'll likely have to win scouts over with productivity at higher levels. But he's improving rapidly, even if it might take him a few years to maximize his draft stock.
A smooth, 6-foot-5 off-guard with a strong frame, good athleticism and versatility, Mojave King proved to be the tournament's best perimeter shooter, knocking down 14 of his 29 3-point attempts in just more than 100 minutes of action. King historically has been happy to defer to others, but his ability to score in the open floor, hit clean jumpers, get teammates involved and make the right play is interesting, considering his youth and physical tools. The next step in his development will be for him to play with more aggressiveness on both ends of the floor and become a more dynamic ball handler.
Other notable players: Canadian wing Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Danish wing Gustav Knudsen, Serbian wings Nikola Radovanovic, Stefan Todorovic and Luka Tarlac, Uruguayan guard Agustin Ubal, Dutch wing Yannick Kraag, Senegalese wing Pape Sow and Spanish wing Miguel Allen Montesdeoca
ItalyNext, I caught 19-year old Cameroonian power forward Paul Eboua, who recently moved into the starting lineup in Italy's first division with some productive games. He has improved significantly after looking lost in the lowly second division last season, putting up maybe the best game of his career with a 20-point, 9-rebound, 3-steal outing in 36 minutes this month.
At 6-foot-8 with a chiseled frame, 7-foot-3 wingspan and explosive athleticism, Eboua has always had phenomenal physical tools. But now he's knocking down 3-pointers, attacking closeouts, operating as a lob threat and making basic passes. The game still moves too quickly for him at times on both ends, his hands aren't reliable enough, and he isn't always able to take advantage of his athleticism. Still, he didn't play basketball until age 14, and he has made impressive strides over the past year, despite not being in an ideal development situation.
Eboua is a legitimate second-round prospect who might be a good fit for a G League affiliate or stash in Europe for another year or two.
IsraelSeveral scouts were in attendance to watch 19-year-old Yam Madar and Hapoel Tel Aviv face Maccabi Ashdod. Madar is having an excellent season in the first division, and he put up an efficient 9 points, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes with defensive energy in a victory.
A late-bloomer physically, Madar has good size, length and athleticism for a PG, but it will likely take several years for his frail frame to fill out before he's ready for the NBA. Nonetheless, he left a strong impression with his feel for the game, competitiveness, budding shooting ability and intangibles. Several executives said they hope he gets an invite to the Nike Hoop Summit in April.
Madar's quick feet and hands made it difficult for the opposing team to get into its sets, and he was subbed into the game late to get defensive stops. He has work to do tightening his ball-handling skills and gaining consistency on offense in the half court, but he is an excellent development situation. He looks like a safe bet to reach his full potential.
BelgiumDespite being only 18 in his first season at the professional level with Oostende, Amar Sylla is playing a significant role in both the first division and the FIBA Champions League, starting every game at power forward and seeing 23 MPG. Those outsized demands seem to be taking a toll on the thin and inexperienced Senegalese big man, as he has hit a bit of a wall after several impressive showings in November and December. He fouled out in just 10 minutes in the game I watched, marking the first time he had done so this season.
Scouts didn't sound particularly discouraged, given that they have long viewed Sylla as a long-term project. He's the second-youngest prospect in ESPN's top 100 draft rankings. A patient team with a strong development infrastructure might be happy to let him develop in the G League until he's ready to contribute in the NBA. He's also being mentioned as a potential candidate for April's Nike Hoop Summit.
HungaryNext up: Carlos Alocen playing in a Champions League game against Falco. Alocen and his team, Zaragoza, are having a dream season in the Spanish ACB, currently in third place in arguably the strongest league in Europe. Alocen had a quiet game by his standards, but he played an important role late in his team's road win in a hostile environment.
At 6-foot-5, the 19-year-old brings excellent height for a point guard, even if he has a narrow frame, short wingspan and average athleticism. His strengths include tremendous basketball IQ, confidence and swagger. He passes with both hands, has tremendous vision in pick-and-rolls and shows terrific creativity with bounce passes. Scouts will want to see him improve his perimeter shot and overall half-court scoring, as he's shooting 28% from beyond the arc and 63% from the foul line. There's technically nothing wrong with his stroke, which instills some confidence that he'll figure out this part of his game in time. That's imperative for his NBA chances, as he struggles at times to finish in the paint and doesn't project as a plus defender.
Alocen isn't oozing with upside, but the fact that he's having such a productive season at his age on a winning team gives him a high floor and a solid chance to be selected (if he stays in the draft).
GermanyDeni Avdija played only 12 minutes against Alba Berlin in a Euroleague game for Maccabi Tel Aviv, but he showed all of his talent and then some, throwing in a pair of 3-pointers, leaking out for a transition finish, blocking two shots emphatically, making the extra pass in the half-court and displaying his defensive versatility. Early foul trouble and a bloody nose cut his night short, but it's easy to see that Avdija is hitting his stride and on an upward trajectory, something he backed up in his next game with a career high 22 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in the Israeli league.
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Avdija has made real strides from a physical standpoint. He improved his body and athleticism so that he isn't overmatched at the highest levels of competition as a 6-foot-9 guard. He's playing almost strictly on the perimeter this season, seeing only a handful of minutes at the small-ball 4 position that -- as he continues to add bulk to his frame -- will likely be attractive to whatever NBA team drafts him. Defensively, Avdija has made a major upgrade to his intensity and consistency.
He is being asked to play a confined role offensively for a talented Maccabi squad in the midst of an outstanding season, rarely being utilized in situations where his ball-handling, court vision and creativity would shine. However, he drops enough glimpses of versatility, skill and feel to remind scouts of what makes him special, and he has shown as much in other settings.
Avdija's recent play and modern NBA fit -- combined with the struggles of the American prospects rated in front of him -- make him a player teams drafting early in the lottery will want to look at closely. He has hovered in the Nos. 5-6 range of our rankings all season and could get looks a little earlier than that, depending on how the lottery shakes out.
FrancePotential lottery pick Theo Maledon is in the midst of an up-and-down season with Euroleague club ASVEL. NBA teams have been frustrated by Maledon's difficult situation from a minutes and opportunity standpoint on one of the slowest and most conservative teams in the league, so it was interesting to see Maledon have one of his most aggressive games of the season, scoring 13 points in 14 minutes while getting to the free throw line a season-high seven times. Scouts historically have criticized Maledon for passivity, making this performance encouraging, though Maledon's coach kept his minutes down.
One reason for Maledon's struggle to carve out a more prominent role is his regression as a shooter, with his percentages dropping from an excellent 38% from beyond the arc and 85% from the free throw line last season to 30% and 67% this season, respectively. Before the game, Maledon went through a long warm-up complete with floaters and a mix of jumpers, and he shot the ball extremely well. His mechanics look clean, and he has been aggressive and confident this season taking open shots. He shows some comfort shooting off a screen and flashes of being able to make step-backs.
On a team that wants to grind out the shot clock, it's understandable that Maledon has seen his production drop off. Considering that he isn't blessed with elite athleticism and has taken a step back this season as a playmaker, it's safe to say that NBA teams will want to see a lot more out of him on both ends before once again projecting him as a lottery pick, like they did before the season.
In Cholet, 6-foot-7 guard Abdoulaye N'Doye has blossomed into a highly versatile player in his draft-eligible season. N'Doye's club started the game down 12-0, at which point his coach, Erman Kunter, made the unconventional decision to bench his starting point guard, Michael Stockton, and put the ball in his young player's hands. That resulted in a simply outstanding first half in which N'Doye scored eight points and dished out six assists, not leaving the court for a second, something I had never seen at this level in my 17 years of international scouting.
After nearly being relegated last season, Cholet is in the midst of an outstanding season, thanks in large part to the integral role N'Doye plays in their switching defensive scheme. With his 7-foot-2 wingspan, N'Doye is tasked with defending opposing point guards, but he will frequently and successfully switch onto bigs in pick-and-roll. N'Doye plays with impressive maturity for his age (21), posting a 65% true shooting percentage and 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He lacks a degree of aggressiveness and could stand to ramp up his intensity a notch, but it was impressive to see his contributions in his team's eventual blowout win.
With physical measurements comparable to those of Robert Covington, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Jerami Grant at the same age, N'Doye looks like a prototype NBA wing, provided he continues to improve his perimeter shooting. Surprisingly, N'Doye hasn't garnered significant attention from NBA teams thus far, as it seems most scouts have moved on to younger prospects after he took longer than expected to blossom. With 16 games plus a likely playoffs appearance left, expect that to change considering how productive he has been. The prospect of him being a first-round pick is certainly in the cards if he finishes the season well.
GermanyKillian Hayes is having an outstanding season in Germany. He appears to be in the best development situation of any of the potential lottery picks in Europe, as the Ulm organization is doing everything it can to help him reach his goal of playing in the NBA.
Follow Zion, Ja, RJ, De'Andre, Coby and more top rooks as they balance basketball and life during an exciting NBA season. Watch on ESPN+
According to several Ulm stakeholders, the team is investing $25 million to build an academy that they hope will become one of the premier destinations for elite youth prospects from Germany and abroad. They want Hayes to be the flag bearer for why future NBA players should sign in Ulm over other traditional hotspots. When Ulm started the season 2-11, with Hayes turning the ball over 57 times in his first 292 minutes, the team refused to pull him from the starting lineup. They've been rewarded for that with a much better version of Hayes the past two months, which has coincided with a 6-2 record in the German league -- and a huge increase in NBA decision-makers at each game.
Hayes struggled a bit in the game I attended, failing to make any real impact until the contest was well out of hand. He showed many of the flaws that scouts were already concerned about, regarding his average athleticism, struggles operating with his off-hand, inconsistent 3-point shooting, lack of midrange game and porous defense.
The appeal around Hayes revolves heavily around his excellent combination of size, length and strength for a PG, along with his playmaking ability. He's extremely shifty with the ball, using his strong frame, long strides, agility and polished footwork to get to his spots on the floor and throw in soft floaters off the glass. He sees the court well and gets his teammates involved, tossing an excellent 8.6 assists per 40 minutes. He has been shooting the ball very well off the dribble this season, despite a low release. When his motor is running hot, he can be a force putting pressure on the ball, getting in passing lanes and using his strong tools to crash the glass, though he isn't consistent in this area.
Hayes has clearly hit a great groove the past six-to-eight weeks. The caveat has been that he has mostly struggled against better competition, playing in a league that is fairly watered down after the top handful of teams and lacking athleticism comparable to that of NBA players. Pushing Hayes to his weaker right hand, trapping him in ball screens and forcing him to make decisions against length have made him uncomfortable, so we'll have to see if he's able to maintain his efficiency and productivity as the season moves on.
For now, Hayes has reestablished himself as a potential lottery pick, though the glut of point guards in this draft indicates that there is still a lot left to play for heading into June.
― lag∞n, Thursday, 16 January 2020 18:23 (six months ago) link