hall of fame, next vote...

he probably makes it in two years, imagining that this year we'll see the Rivera/Halladay/Edgar troika, with a 50/50 shot at Mussina making it. Next year, Jeter/Mussina 100% if he doesn't make it this year. And maybe Walker with a 50/50 shot. Then Schilling the following year.

A real dearth of 2022 candidates iirc

Just on numbers, Schilling should absolutely go in--I can't see any argument against. I figure that people who don't vote for him are primarily sticking it to numbers guys by implicitly saying character matters (I suppose a few older guys are bothered by the low win total), and there are also numbers guys sticking it to character guys by saying who cares?

‘Character clause issues’ is kinda sugar coating someone calling for others to harm you or extrajudicial execution or etc. not directed at anyone here but in the spirit of calling a duck a duck these days...

Posnanski wrote about McGriff today, identifying him as one of three players who may be helped by Baines going in (Veteran's Committee only--and mostly he doesn't think it helps anybody). The other two he mentions--for different reasons--are Garvey and Murphy.

Conversation that evidently took place during this year's VC deliberations:

Anyway, Mad Dog asked Tony La Russa how he could justify voting for Baines and not Garvey, and La Russa sort of hemmed and hawed and hinted that, hey, maybe Garvey should be in there too. I think Garvey's got a real shot.

So yes--that's a problem.

Walker went 3-3 in pickups today, he's received twice as many new votes from returnees than anyone else has, thus far.

I was looking at the next few ballots, up till 2023, and this is pretty funny: Baseball Reference has Tulowitzki on the 2023 ballot. It only feels like he's been retired for the past couple of years.

The logjam will absolutely be cleared up by then--the next four ballots are very light. There are a couple of new sure-things--Jeter and Ortiz--a near sure-thing, Beltran, and A-Rod. And by then, if Bonds and Clemens are in, he may be back to a sure-thing too.

Also Beltre

I don't think he'd go on till 2024, though.

Thought this was funny from Posnanski:

"One thing Schilling has to overcome is that nobody wants to give him a microphone to speak in Cooperstown. Nobody has any idea what he might say up there. On the one hand, he has a deep and long-standing reverence for the game -- he named his oldest son Gehrig -- and he might rise to the occasion.

On the other hand, well, you've seen his Twitter feed."

Maybe I'm being naive, but I have to believe he'd have sense enough to not say anything inflammatory on that particular day.

Trust no old honky imo

he's going to have a MAGA hat on his plaque

With 180 ballots revealed/~43.7% of the vote known:

Rivera - 100%
Halladay - 93.9%
Edgar - 90.6%
Mussina - 81.7%
---
Schilling - 74.4%
Clemens - 73.3%
Bonds - 72.8%
Walker - 66.7%
Vizquel - 36.7%
McGriff - 36.1%
Manny - 26.7%
Rolen - 20.6%
Helton - 19.4%https://t.co/8ISx82oWgM

— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) January 16, 2019

that's wild

if Clemens and Bonds were somehow elected, it's be popcorn time w/ all the reactive sanctimony

Ben Lindbergh:

If Martínez and Mussina qualify for induction along with Rivera and Halladay, the Hall will have a four-player class of BBWAA selections for only the fifth time, and the third time since 1955. It hasn’t been long since the last one: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman went in together just last year, following the 2015 Randy Johnson–Pedro Martínez–John Smoltz–Craig Biggio class. Back-to-back four-player classes would be unprecedented, but the writers’ recent willingness to put plaques on the wall is a much-needed response to a backlog of well-qualified candidates.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/11/18177706/hall-of-fame-voting-larry-walker-edgar-martinez-mike-mussina

With a day to go, basically half the ballots are known:

http://www.bbhoftracker.com/2018/12/2019-bbhof-tracker-summary-and-leaderboard/

Schilling, Clemens, and Bonds have all edged downward--looks like very little chance this time. Mussina's at 81%, which probably means close--I think he'll eke in. Walker next time for sure.

Will Leitch

https://www.mlb.com/news/each-mlb-teams-most-likely-next-hall-of-famer/c-302930638

dan shaughnessy voted for rivera and no one else

We were talking about another guy like that earlier (who was submitting a blank ballot, I think). I honestly think that anyone who submits a ballot with one or no names on it in order to make some symbolic point should be taken off the list. I'm not talking about a full or near-full ballot that leaves off PED names--that's a personal decision, still defensible I believe (though admittedly cloudier and cloudier after Selig and others go in...and I'm not really looking to argue about the others for the nine millionth time), and there are lots of deserving non-PED names if you choose to go that route. But if not you're not voting for anyone (or for only one), why are you voting?

"But if you're not voting..."

Martinez is over the hump at this point, seemingly; he missed election last year by 20 votes, he's picked up a net of 25 votes from returning voters this year. Walker has picked up 46.

Bonds and Clemens have still only picked up three votes each. I think they'll finish in the high 50s again.

I think Mussina is going to miss out by a couple percentage points, maybe...

Jamie Malanowski is mookieproof.

http://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/opinion/baseball-hall-of-fame-bill-james.html

i was a much better little league player

Just looked at the list of writers who are in there (kind of, sort of):

http://baseballhall.org/discover-more/awards/884

Jayson Stark? Jesus--going by the book of his I read, I'm quite certain Harold Baines is a better writer.

james should totally be in, of course. but probably not before marvin miller

Made the same comparison on Facebook, in that they were both apostates...although, I added, the owners always hated Miller because they thought he cost them money (he didn't, on balance, I don't think), whereas James led to hiring people who theoretically help them spend their money smarter. So they'd have no reason to freeze him out.

Walker's jump is almost too good to be true. This is the same player who dropped from 20% to 10% in his first four years on the ballot. Those were crowded ballots, and now the writers are starting to catch up with the backlog of great players, but it's still an amazing story.

mussina's gonna miss by one vote, isn't he

when do they announce?

right now

they should make dan shaughnessy announce it

I'm watching MLB's introductory film, and it looks like Mussina made it.

Mussina!!!

He did get in.

Mariano got 100%

Whoa--100%! Thank god that's over with.

Walker (54%) and Vizquel (42%) really moved towards each other--not good.

So Bonds and Clemens didn't crack 60%, Placido Polanco got a vote!!!

it looks like Walker made up approximately half of the additional vote total he'd need to get in next year. He missed by 173 in 2018, missed by approx 87 or 88 this year. Plus I think the cleared-up ballot helps him out considerably. Lots of writers suggested they'd vote for him if they had more room, others are "willing to listen".

sorry, TWO votes for Polanco.

Walker ended up farther back than I thought he'd be...I was expecting at least 60-65%. But the light ballot and last-year push should be enough next year (more writers will be advocating for him all year like Posnanski's been doing). What did Helton get? I missed that.

Mariano Rivera 425 (100%) 1
Roy Halladay 363 (85.4%) 1
Edgar Martinez 363 (85.4%) 10
Mike Mussina 326 (76.7%) 6
Curt Schilling 259 (60.9%) 6
Roger Clemens 253 (59.5%) 7
Barry Bonds 251 (59.1%) 7
Larry Walker 232 (54.6%) 9
Omar Vizquel 182 (42.8%) 2
Fred McGriff 169 (39.8%) 10
Manny Ramirez 97 (22.8%) 3
Jeff Kent 77 (18.1%) 6
Billy Wagner 71 (16.7%) 4
Todd Helton 70 (16.5%) 1
Scott Rolen 73 (17.2%) 2
Gary Sheffield 58 (13.6%) 5
Andy Pettitte 42 (9.9%) 1
Sammy Sosa 36 (8.5%) 7
Andruw Jones 32 (7.5%) 2
Michael Young 9 (2.1%) 1
Lance Berkman 5 (1.2%) 1
Miguel Tejada 5 (1.2%) 1
Roy Oswalt 4 (0.9%) 1
Placido Polanco 2 (0.5%) 1

(vote total, percentage, year on ballot)

Walker went from 34.1% to 54.6%. The same next year would of course put him at 75.1%.

That is a long uphill climb for Helton, but he starts with James and Posnanski as advocates.

Bonds' percentage has gone up in five straight years. McGriff got a nice bump to nearly 40 percent that probably bodes well for his chances on getting elected via the Baines route.

Jeter's unanimous election is a virtual lock now. He might even get 110% of the votes, because he was just that special as a player.

historically, there's always a very big push in the year before players are elected, but the final push is several points more. That was the case for Mussina and Edgar.