Who Will Be the Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party on 28 March 2019?

Kicking and screaming is my best guess

Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Georg John Tugendhat will be the man to eventually unseat her imo.

You can’t stop Tugmentum when it gets going.

if they go for johnson then that truly is a failure of analysis and a sign that they have internalised the press’ lines about corbyn’s labour being nothing but a personality cult

the runciman lrb article was really accurate in pointing to her absolutely destructive doggedness when it comes to intractable problems. She is allergic to any kind of solomonish solutions and has dug her feet in on brexit in a way that must be absolutely infuriating for those who set it in motion for other political expediencies. It seems that trashing Johnson's aspirations is her biggest achievement as PM.

Hunt, I reckon, at some point.

You can’t stop Tugmentum when it gets going.

I think it's more you shouldn't, like sleepwalkers.

Hunt, I reckon, at some point.

You can’t stop Tugmentum when it gets going.

Mordaunt seems a good dark horse bet for this. Leave, pro-military, young enough to have avoided years of baggage, popular with the activists.

also a woman thus helping burnish further the impeccable feminist credentials of the conservative and unionist party

Hunt married to a Chinese woman, or Japanese, he can't remember which.

he loves his wife, doesn't matter if she's black, white, green, purple

don't know why it couldn't be Rudd. yes she's a tone-deaf, out-of-touch wee racist with a history of ignominy but when did that ever stop the Tories?

She also has a majority of 213.

... sorry, 346. I suppose a pillow part could always be held for some Sir Bufton Tufton in Home Counties seat with a majority of 40K.

pillow party, that is

Rudd’s majority is a problem, but they’d find her a safe seat if they thought she was a serious contender. The membership hate her as she’s a Remainer. Doesn’t matter what she did as Home Secretary or what she’s doing now at DWP.

Aha

xxxp They don't have any - the biggest Tory majority (31st biggest) is 27,772 in North East Hampshire - the current MP, Ranil Jayawardena, is second generation Sri Lankan/Indian, so he may not have the rosiest views of Amber Rudd.

Tory MPs with the next three largest majorities... Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab.

That’s...pretty safe?

Ffs. Also re your second point - Sajid Javid.

Yeah, it's pretty safe, I was just saying that they don't have any 40k majorities any more. The only one in the whole country is Knowsley, who's MP has never AFAICT done anything.

Second point very much taken!

Eh, I'm seeing May then Damien Hinds (25,852) then Simon Hoare (25,777)?

feck - whose! (he's Labour ofc)

I know none of this is very important, and gyac otm about how it's not the limiting factor in Amber Rudd, PM - but get your glow where you can, and I get one from the fact that the 30 largest majorities in the UK are all Labour.

Constituencies, their boundaries and populations change all the time. Islington North was practically a marginal when Corbyn got in.

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

turns out it was d grieve

the diaphanous grey blob wins again.

Much Against Everyone's Advice

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

nothing sure yet

No, but we've all had our say now, from the smallest ILXor to Sir Graham Brady, all to the same effect.