It would be a totally different campaign on both sides - the Remain side would be "you've seen what Brexit actually looks like now" rather than vague Project Fear. The Leave campaign would be a hysterical betrayal narrative that would sweep enough people along with it to be dangerous.
Safe to say the Remain side would be a lot less complacent now and committed enthusiatic europhilia feels like more of a thing than three years ago, while Leave voters could be experiencing burnout or boredom. Plus its the Remain side that becomes about kicking established politicians this time round.
I think Remain wins but narrowly. God knows how wide the margin of victory would need to be to even vaguely setlle this.
― Matt DC, Sunday, 24 March 2019 20:16 (five years ago) link
it would need to be a victory of this scale to settle it (for a generation, at least):
Yes 17,378,581 67.23% No 8,470,073 32.77%
― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||), Sunday, 24 March 2019 20:24 (five years ago) link
Remain 55+% with a turnout around 80%
― nashwan, Sunday, 24 March 2019 20:31 (five years ago) link
Narrowly remain, our troubles are just beginning.
― chap, Sunday, 24 March 2019 20:35 (five years ago) link
what's the question? 1 leave OR remain? 2 if leave: may's deal OR no deal?
― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||),
whatever version of leave you think vs whatever version of remain (i think theres only one but who knows)
3rd option: its not happening.
― xyzzzz__,
Of course its not happening out there in the real world. In here we can speculate
― anvil, Sunday, 24 March 2019 21:04 (five years ago) link
the Remain side would be "you've seen what Brexit actually looks like now" rather than vague Project Fear
But we haven't seen what Brexit looks like?
I dont know that the campaigns would be particularly different. Leave would focus more on the elites are stealing democracy, idk what Remain would do
I think you're right about some level of fatigue on leave side but I wouldn't bet on any outcome other than a tiny margin of victory for someone
― anvil, Sunday, 24 March 2019 21:09 (five years ago) link
Remain just needs to start doing the absolute polar opposite of what they have done since 2016. and obv don't let the likes of Geldof, Blair, Salmond, Izzard, Adonis anywhere near it again.. and even then they are doomed :p
― calzino, Sunday, 24 March 2019 21:30 (five years ago) link
I think Remain would win but I think the turnout would collapse - which would suit Remain.
― Don't Go Back to Brockville (Tom D.), Sunday, 24 March 2019 22:07 (five years ago) link
unguessable which is still only the 3rd or 4th reason not to do this shit
― J Masctits (Noodle Vague), Sunday, 24 March 2019 23:01 (five years ago) link
well Germany have their faults, but at least they realised referendums don't suit cobbled together contrivances of "United" kingdoms, with too many fucking loon tunes!
― calzino, Sunday, 24 March 2019 23:14 (five years ago) link
I think remain would win, and the turnout would be way up!
― Mark G, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 07:32 (five years ago) link
yes, i think so too
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 07:33 (five years ago) link
Seriously, all those who were indifferent or were don't know, now have purpose and know.
― Mark G, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 07:34 (five years ago) link
like i think its obvious.
but idg where uk ilx is on the whole thing tho its very interesting tbs tbs
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 07:34 (five years ago) link
hasn’t been a single poll in almost a year now with Leave lead. 70 polls since GE17 show only two (+1) leads, 5 Ties, 63 Remain leads, recent avg plus 7/8 remain.Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/LeaveVia @britainelects pic.twitter.com/gLnSCpi5nW— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 26, 2019
― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 08:30 (five years ago) link
Y-axis key there
it’s really misleading, as Tom Ewing pointed out. The movement is a lot more slow moving and the general positions more static than it implies. Trust and accuracy really not helped by that sort of thing.
― Fizzles, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 08:51 (five years ago) link
plus the remain leads are all within the margin of error.
I wouldn’t want to press the issue within that envelope
― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 08:54 (five years ago) link
am i missing where those trends are actually identified or wha
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:01 (five years ago) link
the result wouldn't matter
― ogmor, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:04 (five years ago) link
because democracy would've been betrayed or...?
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:12 (five years ago) link
Things are already broken
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:13 (five years ago) link
yes, the uk's status in the EU is already broken and they wouldn't be able to operate as before, 'leave' is as we have seen uselessly vague.
― ogmor, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:18 (five years ago) link
You don't think that couldn't be repaired with the help of a different government, better diplomacy and concerted effort from all sides? With this lot in power, it's broken, I agree.
― Matt DC, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:21 (five years ago) link
there's no way the brexit noise is going away for the next decade or so whoever is in power and whatever happens next, so the UK's status will be precarious in a way it never was before
― ogmor, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:32 (five years ago) link
This is a remarkably optimistic view of a group of 'voters', a lot of whom would struggle to name the Prime Minister. Not only are these people unlikely to vote but I can well imagine that large numbers of people who DID vote in the first referendum, who have never or rarely voted for anything before or since, and who seem to have voted overwhelmingly to leave, would have reverted to their customary state of lassitude/apathy. I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.
― Don't Go Back to Brockville (Tom D.), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:33 (five years ago) link
i fought with me ma so im setting fire to the gaff, fuck it
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 26 March 2019 09:41 (five years ago) link
OK, I roll back the word "all" there, and substitute "most".
But then again, I didn't get where I am today by being reasonable!
(where am i?)
― Mark G, Tuesday, 26 March 2019 16:48 (five years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Monday, 1 April 2019 00:01 (five years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.
― System, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 00:01 (five years ago) link
jesus get this to bercow. tonight!
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 April 2019 00:06 (five years ago) link
I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.
If this whole thing had actually engaged those voters politically, folks would now be excited about an extension enabling them to vote for their MEPs and thus exercise British control over the Brussels bastards in the event of no Brexit
― steven, soda jerk (sic), Tuesday, 2 April 2019 00:07 (five years ago) link
On the one hand, that's a decisive win.
On the other, the Talk Talk/Mark Hollis poll got more votes in total.
― Mark G, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 06:50 (five years ago) link
no no the results are in millions iirc
― fremme nette his simplicitte (darraghmac), Tuesday, 2 April 2019 07:32 (five years ago) link
less talk talk more baulk baulk
― nashwan, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 07:42 (five years ago) link
lol @ waking up and wanting any kind of 2nd ref today and everyday
― xyzzzz__, Tuesday, 2 April 2019 07:54 (five years ago) link