Second Referendum - Who Wins?

it would need to be a victory of this scale to settle it (for a generation, at least):

Yes 17,378,581 67.23%
No 8,470,073 32.77%

Remain 55+% with a turnout around 80%

Narrowly remain, our troubles are just beginning.

what's the question? 1 leave OR remain? 2 if leave: may's deal OR no deal?

― PaulDananVEVO (||||||||),

whatever version of leave you think vs whatever version of remain (i think theres only one but who knows)

3rd option: its not happening.

― xyzzzz__,

Of course its not happening out there in the real world. In here we can speculate

the Remain side would be "you've seen what Brexit actually looks like now" rather than vague Project Fear

But we haven't seen what Brexit looks like?

I dont know that the campaigns would be particularly different. Leave would focus more on the elites are stealing democracy, idk what Remain would do

I think you're right about some level of fatigue on leave side but I wouldn't bet on any outcome other than a tiny margin of victory for someone

Remain just needs to start doing the absolute polar opposite of what they have done since 2016. and obv don't let the likes of Geldof, Blair, Salmond, Izzard, Adonis anywhere near it again.. and even then they are doomed :p

Remain 55+% with a turnout around 80%

I think Remain would win but I think the turnout would collapse - which would suit Remain.

unguessable which is still only the 3rd or 4th reason not to do this shit

well Germany have their faults, but at least they realised referendums don't suit cobbled together contrivances of "United" kingdoms, with too many fucking loon tunes!

I think remain would win, and the turnout would be way up!

yes, i think so too

Seriously, all those who were indifferent or were don't know, now have purpose and know.

like i think its obvious.

but idg where uk ilx is on the whole thing tho its very interesting tbs tbs

hasn’t been a single poll in almost a year now with Leave lead. 70 polls since GE17 show only two (+1) leads, 5 Ties, 63 Remain leads, recent avg plus 7/8 remain.

Hypothesis: General Election 2017 was a structural break in polled support for Remain/Leave

Via @britainelects pic.twitter.com/gLnSCpi5nW

— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) March 26, 2019

Y-axis key there

it’s really misleading, as Tom Ewing pointed out. The movement is a lot more slow moving and the general positions more static than it implies. Trust and accuracy really not helped by that sort of thing.

plus the remain leads are all within the margin of error.

I wouldn’t want to press the issue within that envelope

am i missing where those trends are actually identified or wha

the result wouldn't matter

because democracy would've been betrayed or...?

Things are already broken

yes, the uk's status in the EU is already broken and they wouldn't be able to operate as before, 'leave' is as we have seen uselessly vague.

You don't think that couldn't be repaired with the help of a different government, better diplomacy and concerted effort from all sides? With this lot in power, it's broken, I agree.

there's no way the brexit noise is going away for the next decade or so whoever is in power and whatever happens next, so the UK's status will be precarious in a way it never was before

Seriously, all those who were indifferent or were don't know, now have purpose and know.

This is a remarkably optimistic view of a group of 'voters', a lot of whom would struggle to name the Prime Minister. Not only are these people unlikely to vote but I can well imagine that large numbers of people who DID vote in the first referendum, who have never or rarely voted for anything before or since, and who seem to have voted overwhelmingly to leave, would have reverted to their customary state of lassitude/apathy. I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.

i fought with me ma so im setting fire to the gaff, fuck it

OK, I roll back the word "all" there, and substitute "most".

But then again, I didn't get where I am today by being reasonable!

(where am i?)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

jesus get this to bercow. tonight!

I'm not seeing much evidence that the general public are more exercised about Brexit than first time round.

If this whole thing had actually engaged those voters politically, folks would now be excited about an extension enabling them to vote for their MEPs and thus exercise British control over the Brussels bastards in the event of no Brexit

On the one hand, that's a decisive win.

On the other, the Talk Talk/Mark Hollis poll got more votes in total.

no no the results are in millions iirc

less talk talk more baulk baulk

lol @ waking up and wanting any kind of 2nd ref today and everyday