the boris project: slouching blond beast who can or shrunken cowardly lump who was never going to

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Boris could really fuck things up. Whatever his personal beliefs are (if he even has any), he's certainly painted himself into a hard brexit corner now. It's pretty much no deal or revocation at this stage of the game, and while no deal would be a disaster, to even get to no deal he'd have to fuck things up even further. This parliament won't deliver no deal so he'd have to consider calling an election and go into cahoots with Farage or something.

Yes that's assuming a new leader would want to go through parliament for this rather than - if you are a hard brexiteer - just crashing out the country. That's the one thing that Boris would be qualified for.

xposts

It doesn't seem hard to make ridiculous demands repeatedly then wait for the EU not to extend and no deal by default happens, thenbblame the EU, not least given Macron and others seem fairly close to this.

There's a paper from the Institute of Government to the effect that parliament might not have further chances to block No Deal:

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/new-prime-minister-intent-no-deal-brexit-cant-be-stopped-mps-0

The main counterargument aiui is John Bercow is craaazy:

New:

Whips are tonight alarmed about *this* exchange involving John Bercow

The Speaker hints he could enable votes on Brexit alternatives such as Customs Union by allowing neutral motions to be amended so they are substantive

'It's massive,' a source said pic.twitter.com/CIwLpJUIlc

— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) March 18, 2019

Except a crash would unleash...all the stuff we have talked about. Food, medicine shortages, border chaos in NI. It's too unstable a situation that could destroy the Tories.

An election could give a Tory leader the numbers for a more orderly Brexit and a full term.

Genuinely what planet do you live on.

I find it hard to believe that if there is a clear majority against no deal (as there is), parliament can't find a way to handcuff a government and force it to revoke if there is no deal at the deadline.

I think that would be a perfectly reasonable line from some quarters.

xp

that article seems fairly alarmist given it concludes that yes, a vonc would stop no deal and force an election. so there is a way.

Let's see what happens in the Euro elections before making any bold claims about the Tories rolling the dice on an election.

Dutch results are encouraging.

Brexit: Boris Johnson vows to let UK crash out of EU without a deal if necessary

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-no-deal-uk-eu-talks-theresa-may-conservative-leader-resigns-a8928876.html

But he vowed that people would “hear more than you want to hear” about his bid to replace her over the coming days.

Yes, and they were completely out of the blue. Where our Tory pm picked the new far right douche on the block as his main challenger, the media followed this narrative, and no poll got even close to this result. Labour walked it, pro-EU won, Wilders' party obliterated.

xp

think i've reached that point already

xpost

Sounds a lot like no deal is better than a bad deal to me

how does the incoming tory leader (if not cronus) persuade HER MADGE* that they have command of the commons? doesn't a new PM have to pass a queen's speech? i know the fucker's "unwritten" and a LOT can be handwaved but…

not forgetting that may literally lied to E2R abt having secured DUP backing -- yes she did afterwards secure it but…

*yes i realise she died on 29 dec 2016 and they've been waiting for a nice quiet moment to tell us

HM can’t automatically send for the Tory leader without confidence that they have ; May lied about having secured DUP backing to be appointed. The next PM needs to pass a Queen’ speech. How will that happen?

can her madge really be said to have 'died' on 29 dec 2016 when it's generally accepted that we all died on dec 21 2012, more than four full earth years earlier

Assume the Tory leader would get DUP backing in a another billion thanks confidence and supply basis.

she is not from earth do keep up

is there a breakdown anywhere of just what may's super soaraway spending bonanza actually won her in the way of support from the dup

that is a very big assumption comrade plus it's not just the DUP at issue now

xp to xyzzzz__ : I assume so - he spoke at their conference a few years ago and AFAIK has managed not to drop any clangers (though it's safe to assume they'd be broadly on-side with any of his usual material).

mark, I can't find anywhere that he'd _have_ to get a Queen's speech in. He'd have to get a budget passed at some point though - I agree that the traditional "Tories will row in behind power" has seemed pretty shaky of late, but it's been mostly confined to Brexit (though that is possibly because there is nothing else that the government has been doing).

This has spread, including to the Spectator! https://www.facebook.com/1691455784407633/posts/2449074521979085/

Says Gove's brother-in-law (i know, i know)

lol we’re all gonna die

Is Boris as as ruthlessly self-serving, as utterly incompetent, as thoughtless and cruel as Trump? Yes. But is the British establishment as willing to roll over and give in to him? Also yes.

I have decided to embrace Boris as the victor because whoever wins this contest will be out by Christmas as they fail to deliver on their election promises. None of them are changing the EU position or the parliamentary arithmetic, and none of them imo represent either a banhammer for the whips to use or a seductive enough prospect for opposition defectors. And being humiliated by being such a short lived PM is exactly what the deflating football deserves, because he is one of the most incompetent politicians to have held a front bench post for some time, on either side and by Christ there's stiff competition.

With an attempt at an impartial eye, it's easy to understand why he's popular with the party though. Professional politics is almost solely about charisma, leadership to a lesser degree so, and it's unquestionable that he does possess a large amount of it. What the party recognise is that it's needed to challenge the charismatic alternative, which even people within the Labour party sometimes refer to as a cult. I have no doubt there will be large elements of overlap in the 'BORIS HE IS A LEGERND' and people singing 'ooh Jeremy corbyn' at glasto Venn diagram and maybe the trick is to get them to identify with the first group again.

Just thinking, it has been quite a while since I encountered any "Boris is a total ledge" types. They seem to have either changed their minds, shut up, or been filtered out of my bubble.

Yeah, I was just thinking of a an ex-coworker (and friend of a friend) had basically voted for lolboris for Mayor.

Sorry but Corbyn is NOT charismatic, at all. He’s literally a granddad pottering around on the allotment and the “cult” label is thrown about by people who’ve never understood the source of his appeal. Otherwise good analysis

Not that I would want to puncture this particularly innovative twist on Horseshoe Theory but 11 years have passed since peak lol Boris legernd. That's several political lifetimes and most of the people involved are probably running start-ups now and pretending that they're going to vote LibDem next time.

JC is basically a british archetype familiar to anyone who has 1 ever been on an allotment or 2 been on holiday in britain in those areas where people go on “walking holidays” ie very much not charismatic

You can sing "ooh bloke on allotment" to Seven Nation Army as well.

He's not Jesus but he has the same initials

thing about lol Boris legernd voters is that they're... a bit dim, and pretty impervious to acual political developments, so I think a lot of that support will still be there through sheer inertia.

"he's just like a geography teacher" was a colossal snobbery as well as a tell, really -- so important to hate and despise and sneer at teachers in the coming settlement, let me just write that down

the geography teacher has always been a slightly confused archetype

Idk I’m definitely sure he’s been tarnished by the last few years.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Corbyn - re Corbyn, check out his correlations lol

His VSO posting: teaching geography in Jamaica.

Specifically geography as well, which conveys its own frumpiness even if it isn't especially accurate.

The Parliamentary arithmetic will be different under a new leader, one way another. Shifts in allegiance, antipathy, degree of trust, desperation to avoid an early general election. I've no idea how the fallout will go down, but the arithmetic will be different because some of the actors are going to act differently.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson

Slightly less well thought of than Boris, it appears

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And May.

OTHER THINGS LIKED BY JEREMY CORBYN FANS: Discogs

OTHER THINGS LIKED BY BORIS JOHNSON FANS: Shandy Bass

"Other things liked by Boris Johnson fans" reads like a list of references to be incorporated in the next Alan Partridge series.

Arithmetic only different by single figures imo unless an option which gets cross bench support emerges. Three years on nobody has changed opinion substantially and certainly not to the point where they're going to shift to hard leave from soft remain.

Biggest chance of changing the arithmetic is Rory who is at least honest about flogging the WA again. The centre ground is the only place to get the numbers because it's the only one where you can sell the idea of influence over phase 2 - either to achieve a least worst outcome to bring in soft remain or a free trade model which might get some outliers on leave.

OTHER THINGS LIKED BY JEREMY CORBYN FANS: Karl Marx

Checkmate, tankies.

boris is going to hastily put a few biro marks on TM's WA, and somehow enough head-bangers will buy it in parliament. Then starts a new chapter of his legend and everything is almost reset to 2010 only this time flea olympics!

Good that Ian Blackford went in on Johnson directly calling him racist in the Commons and refusing to retract when Bercow advised him to.

i know too many columnists like him. He embarked on this wheeze after deciding the 800 words he had cranked out for "leave" were funnier than the "remain" draft and that's about all there is to it.

It's sort of beautiful that May spunked all the valid options they had away, so now they're actually in charge and they have little left to do but bluster over the dregs.