Joe Biden, Senator from Citibank (oops, DELAWARE), to Run for President

Also the leading polls said trump had a 2% chance of winninf or somethinf right until the end

― Trϵϵship, 12. juni 2019 17:54 (nineteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Not in 2016, no, statisticians who had no track record said this, but 538 said it was about 30% and tightening.

Also, it seems pretty clear that Biden is too old to be President. Even though he is not the oldest candidate. People age differently.

"X has X percent chance of winning" /= "X is not winning"

President Trump told aides to deny that his internal polling showed him trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in key states, according to a new report from The New York Times.

Later, when the polling in 17 states conducted by Tony Fabrizio leaked, Trump told aides to tell reporters that other data showed him doing better, according to the Times story written by Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman.

The polling reportedly showed Trump behind Biden in a number of the states he needs to take to win reelection, though the Times report did not identify them.

Beyond Trump's internal polling, a series of recent surveys have shown the president trailing Biden in several important states.

Last week, a Quinnipiac University poll found Biden 4 points ahead of Trump in Texas, a state Democrats haven't won in the presidential election since 1976.

is it no surprise to me that people being so exposed to the asshole as pres for the last two years might have them considering that maybe their fence sitting vote for him was ill advised. anyone that was not hardcore MAGA has got to be over his shit , right ?

he may not have lost a whole lot of support but it's hard to imagine how he could have possibly GAINED any over the last two years. and the margin was razor thin in 2016.

the leading polls said trump had a 2% chance of winninf or somethinf right until the end

on Election Day, 538 said he had a 1 in 3 chance of winning

I just looked it up and it was 28%

anyone that was not hardcore MAGA has got to be over his shit , right ?

i'm sure they are, but the full GOP + Fox + Breitbart + rightwing radio + white evangelical churches onslaught against the Democratic candidate hasn't started yet. soon, those people will be choosing between an extremely dumb and corrupt president vs the most communinist leftist socialist marxist radical eco-terrorist who may have also murdered someone and almost definitely set at least 2 or more of those big wildfires last year

I feel the tiny sliver of low info voters in key states who thought Trump might be more liberal on certain issues than he turned out to be is going to be enough to make a difference this time around. At least I hope so.

I have a hard time envisioning him losing tbh. The entire right wing media is warmed up and ready to do things his way—in 2016 he didn’t have this level of propaganda behind him

Don't forget that Democratic voters are likely to be more enthusiastic than the last cycle. if not because of the candidate they're voting for, then at least enthusiastically voting against Trump (and knowing that there is a very real possibility that he'll win this time)

trump can't seem to get above 42% in any reelection poll ive seen

Incumbency is always a plus, but the GOP's keeping the Senate is more likely than Trump losing -- a grim outcome.

trump can't seem to get above 42% in any reelection poll ive seen

― Jeff Bathos (symsymsym), Wednesday, June 12, 2019 1:22 PM (seventeen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think people were lying to pollsters last time because they were ashamed to say they were voting for him

lots of polls the week before the 2016 election had him at 46%, which was what he actually got

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

I'm suspicious that any Democratic nominee is going to spend a lot of time in PA/MI/WI this time around, which sidelines entirely the question of what percentage of 'independent' voters misread Trump or what tiny percentage of Republicans might dislike him.

wait, you mean you don't think the democratic nominee is going to campaign much in those states?

Any candidate will focus on the swing states. Neither PA or WI have a senate seat up for grabs in 2020.

If polling still points to a landslide closer to the election, I would like the eventual candidate to give more attention to GA, NC, and ME where there's a real possibility of Senate pick ups.

Oh, and AZ, CO, AL too.

Any candidate will focus on the swing states. Neither PA or WI have a senate seat up for grabs in 2020.

i have no idea on this, but at least some people (ie josh marshall/TPM) view WI as THE swing seat in 2020, regardless of senate seat openings

I really don't think any candidate will trust any landslide prediction after 2016. As well they shouldn't. And honestly that outcome seems highly improbable anyway.

yeah, there's a good 5% who probably don't like Trump much but will vote for him anyway

wait, you mean you don't think the democratic nominee is going to campaign much in those states?

not campaigning in those states after what happened to Hillary in '16 would be like if Bill Clinton put on a dorky helmet and rode around in a tank in '92

Hillary campaigned a lot in Pennsylvania, she lost it anyway. Her not campaigning in more states was stupid, but it 100% didn't cost her the election.

yes it did, you birdbrain

if not quite as much as being Hillary Clinton

100 percent -- really, Morbs?

would watch John Malkovich in Being Hilary Clinton

There's not enough states Clinton didn't campaign in to change the outcome. It's Michigan and Wisconsin, winning those two states wouldn't have won the election.

I understand the thought of a tourniquet is appealing. But say Biden squeaks through. You get four years of gridlock if you're lucky, some executive orders, "summits." Then a full-fledged Tea Party of the left and Tom Cotton in '24.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) June 13, 2019

Nixon's political clairvoyance kind of runs off the rails at the end there.

Dershowitz: I could "enthusiastically" vote for Biden over Trump https://t.co/w5FFzpIwwY pic.twitter.com/C7P9EFmqcl

— The Hill (@thehill) June 13, 2019

When you’ve lost dershowitz, well, just stay quiet and keep moving further away from him. You’re almost in the clear.

Why is that man given any attention by the media?

Biden 2020: We're All Going to Lose 4 Years of Our Lives Anyway

"I really like those old Southern tunes, snappy stuff like 'I wish I was in Dixie, hooray hooray!' Jimmy Eastland and I would sing that all night long, and that's what's missing in today's politics." pic.twitter.com/Q0rTtohheW

— Dennis Perrin (@DennisThePerrin) June 19, 2019

rofl

WOW. Asked by CNN outside a fundraiser in Chevy Chase, MD, if he should apologize for his comments, Biden said “apologize for what?”, adding “Cory should apologize”, referring to criticism today from Cory Booker. via @carolinerkenny

— Rebecca Buck (@RebeccaBuck) June 20, 2019

god damn joe

The only person I can think of in recent history who seemed to want to be president less than Biden is Trump. So I guess that means Uncle Joe’s gonna be our nominee

I think Jeb! holds that title.

Lol Biden is kinda is kinda killing this

he sucks ass at running for president

This might help biden. Being seen as “unfairly attacked” by the “politically correct” “elites” is something that will make some voters identify with him. Not just white voters either—they’ve done studies which shows that the majority of black americans disagree with “political correctness,” however they define it (i understand it is a fraught term).

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/large-majorities-dislike-political-correctness/572581/

I’m with Booker here of course, what biden said was fucked up, but i don’t think this kind of thing will hurt him at the ballot box and may help. The critique of his “handsiness” was the same. Worth calling out because it might help move the culture, but this will not sink him.

In general, the “gaffes” make him more relatable to people who think he is beinf unfairly maligned by scolds. In 2008 they might have made him look dumb or something but today people think, you know, obama trusted him, ajd obama remains very popular among democratic voters

he is not going to stop making gaffes, he opens his mouth and gaffes gallop out of it

he also told a black senator that he should be the one to apologize idk idk