Ryu seems to be locking down the Cy Young Award, after today he's 12-2 with an ERA of 1.46 -- though he's 9-0 and 0.82 at home.
― omar little, Sunday, 11 August 2019 23:40 (four years ago) link
Washington has 46 games left, and Scherzer's throwing a simulated game Tuesday. Which means, what? Deduct another 10 games and he's got 7 or 8 starts left? He'll probably end up ahead in WAR, but still tough if Ryu posts a sub-2.00 ERA with 16 or 17 wins.
― clemenza, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:36 (four years ago) link
I mean, I know wins don't matter anymore, but except in extreme cases like deGrom last year--where the low-win guy is clearly and demonstrably the best pitcher in the league--I sense they still count for a little? I don't know--it evolves with each situation.
― clemenza, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:41 (four years ago) link
I’m totally still in the camp that Scherzer is capable of winning and Ryu can of course go on a bad streak that would wreck his numbers. But w/Scherzer still out and that Madduxy ERA I think the voters are obv gonna need some reasons to not give it to Ryu.
― omar little, Monday, 12 August 2019 02:48 (four years ago) link
Ryu has only 8 IP more than Scherzer even with the missed time.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 12 August 2019 12:00 (four years ago) link
NL rookie race should be interesting between alonso, tatis and soroka
gonna be tough for ppl to look past all of alonso's homers (especially if he ends up leading the league)
― mookieproof, Monday, 12 August 2019 13:19 (four years ago) link
Normally--not this year--Bryan Reynolds would have a shot. (The only reason I'm even aware of him is because I clicked on Bo Bichette's draft round this morning--same round as Alonso.) He's actually about even with Alonso in WAR.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 13:12 (four years ago) link
If all four of those guys end up with 5.0+ WAR (all are presently on pace to do so), would that rank with the greatest rookie crops ever for one league? Have to believe that's relatively rare.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 14:19 (four years ago) link
carson kelly and chris paddack and keston hiura have also been good
i guess yordan alvarez is gonna run away with the AL RoY despite not debuting until june 9
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 15:17 (four years ago) link
I guess Play Index could answer the question I posed above--four rookies over 5.0 WAR in one league--but I don't know how to do that.
Here's one round-up of the best rookie classes ever:
https://www.mlb.com/news/best-rookie-classes-in-mlb-since-1947-c295885062
They've got 2015 #1, both leagues. There were five guys over 4.0 that year in total, but only one, Kris Bryant, over 5.0.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 15:32 (four years ago) link
Yordan Alvarez has tied Joe Dimaggio's record for most RBIs through a player's first 46 games (51 RBIs).— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 13, 2019
― mookieproof, Tuesday, 13 August 2019 20:33 (four years ago) link
speaking of brian reynolds being overlooked/underrated, he has the fourth-highest OBP for the season so far after trout, yelich, and bellinger
― na (NA), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:08 (four years ago) link
#1 in batting everage
― na (NA), Wednesday, 14 August 2019 20:09 (four years ago) link
The NL Cy Young looks certain to be between three low-win guys, Scherzer, deGrom, and Ryu. (Strasberg is so manifestly behind them statistically, can't see much support in 2019--he may have a shot at 4th or 5th.) Wouldn't be surprised at all if deGrom wins a second one if he keeps pitching this well through September.
"Low-win guys" (15 or fewer, I'd say) is probably going to be the norm rather than the exception from here on out.
― clemenza, Saturday, 24 August 2019 15:56 (four years ago) link
No one is really stepping up to claim that NL Cy right now, Scherzer is getting eased back into things slowly and Ryu has been bad of late. DeGrom could take it again but idk.
― omar little, Sunday, 1 September 2019 15:55 (four years ago) link
I’m rooting for Alvarez to win it with less than 81 games played.
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 1 September 2019 20:19 (four years ago) link
JV and Cole had been very close statistically speaking for awhile but this coupled w/Cole’s last start puts him way out in front for the Cy.― omar little, Sunday, September 1, 2019 3:44 PM (yesterday)
It'd be hard to make a case for Cole today, unless you place an inordinate amount of importance on FIP--Cole still leads by half of run because of Verlander's HR. But they're still close enough that one great start by Cole coupled with one really poor one by Verlander would probably be enough to reverse that.
VHS: Alvarez would be a terrible choice for NL Cy Young.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 13:29 (four years ago) link
looking fwd to the oldschool freakouts if Mike Minor get any first-place votes
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 September 2019 13:57 (four years ago) link
This came up on another thread. According to Baseball Reference, hitters get a 5% advantage in Texas, pitchers a 2% advantage in Houston. And on Fangraphs, the Astros rank 16th defensively, the Rangers 23rd. Having said that...
V: 2.56 ERA, 193 IP, 257 K, 177 ERA+, 3.42 FIP, 0.772 WHIP, 7.34 K/BB, 6.7 WARC: 2.85 ERA, 170 IP, 252 K, 159 ERA+, 2.93 FIP, 0.957 WHIP, 6.15 K/BB, 4.7 WARM: 3.25 ERA, 174 IP, 175 K, 158 ERA+, 3.95 FIP, 1.205 WHIP, 3.07 K/BB, 7.0 WAR
WAR on Fangraphs: Cole 5.3, Verlander 5.2, Minor 3.9.
Even with adjustments, I find the idea that Minor is the best of those three bizarre.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 14:48 (four years ago) link
Sorry Clem, I was discussing the (lifeless) AL ROY.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 2 September 2019 17:22 (four years ago) link
Minor shutting out NYY thru 5
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 2 September 2019 21:53 (four years ago) link
Cole has struck out 14 in six innings...which brings to him to 105 pitches, though; not sure what his limit is. He's probably out, one inning more at most.
― clemenza, Monday, 2 September 2019 22:23 (four years ago) link
Verlander pitches well yesterday and wins, Cole--through 7 innings--working on a one-hitter with 13 strikeouts today.
― clemenza, Sunday, 8 September 2019 20:29 (four years ago) link
Verlander and Cole back-to-back is looking like some real Johnson-Schilling shit
― omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 00:58 (four years ago) link
Has anyone ever reached 300 Ks before they reached 200 IP? Cole has 281 strikeouts in 184.1 IP...
― omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 01:13 (four years ago) link
If I still had my baseball reference subscription I’d search for single seasons where a SP had a 13.5 K per 9 rate or higher. Alas...
― I am also Harl (Karl Malone), Monday, 9 September 2019 01:16 (four years ago) link
you don't need a subscription (Cole's alone)
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_season.shtml
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Monday, 9 September 2019 01:26 (four years ago) link
actually Randy Johnson got to 300+ before he hit 200 IP in 2001 (the season he struck out 372 in 249.2 IP)
― omar little, Monday, 9 September 2019 01:27 (four years ago) link
Pedro came close in '99 (313 K in 213.1 IP for the year), but looking at his game logs, I think he just missed. Ryan was never even close to a 100+ K/IP margin, so pretty sure no for him.
― clemenza, Monday, 9 September 2019 15:56 (four years ago) link
100 K/IP, now that would be a record
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 11 September 2019 09:53 (four years ago) link
I know you're kidding...I should have rendered that as +100 IP-K.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 12:25 (four years ago) link
Even better: +100 K-IP.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 11 September 2019 12:26 (four years ago) link
btw deGrom is clearly the Mets' MVP, and trails only Bellinger, Yelich and Marte among all NL players (due in part to his batting value).
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 12 September 2019 11:44 (four years ago) link
Scherzer and Ryu are both taking themselves out of the running lately. I'm thinking DeGrom might repeat.
― omar little, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:25 (four years ago) link
I'll have to compare tomorrow, but in the AL, I thought Verlander and Cole were close enough that one start by each could reorder them. And that's exactly what has happened--so-so start by Verlander yesterday, another dominant performance by Cole today. I think Cole might have overtaken him for the moment.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:32 (four years ago) link
Cole has been so good lately, it does seem like he's finishing very strong and Verlander may just be finishing "well".
― omar little, Saturday, 14 September 2019 03:59 (four years ago) link
degrom's having another great season but i think this is scherzer's to lose
― Sally Jessy (Karl Malone), Saturday, 14 September 2019 04:04 (four years ago) link
I think you're going to see two of the closest Cy votes ever (certainly in a single season).
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 16:22 (four years ago) link
Scrolled through, and I only found one year where both winners were under an 80% share of the vote: 1973. Palmer beat Ryan 88-62 (14 first-place votes to 9...Blyleven ahead in WAR by 2-3 wins; think I had an epic argument about that one once), Seaver beat Marshall 71-54 (10 first-place votes to 9...Seaver was ahead in WAR 10.6 to 3.0!). Anyway, both leagues should be even closer this year. With Verlander-Cole, they're so close you either flip a coin or delve into Game Scores and strength-of-opposition.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2019 17:29 (four years ago) link
When Alvarez pulls the ball in the air, he bats .868 with a 2.421 slugging percentage.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-probably-underrating-yordan-alvarez
― mookieproof, Monday, 16 September 2019 14:40 (four years ago) link
I don't know who votes in these mlb.com polls, but they've got Verlander still way ahead of Cole.
https://www.mlb.com/news/cy-young-poll-close-between-degrom-scherzer
That doesn't seem right; they ought to be very close.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 22:10 (four years ago) link
Verlander has that Pedro-like WHIP, plus the WAR lead. And the wins lead, if you wanna kick it old-school.
― omar little, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 23:02 (four years ago) link
i think one more "decent" JV start coupled with another otherworldly Cole start, plus him hitting 300 ks, might nudge him out in front.
― omar little, Tuesday, 17 September 2019 23:03 (four years ago) link
Great six innings from Verlander last night. We'll see how Cole responds--back and forth. They're definitely up with (though not equal to, I don't think) Johnson/Schilling right now.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2019 12:41 (four years ago) link
This site looks at strength of opposition--supposedly Verlander has had a clearly tougher draw.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/9/17/20870026/justin-verlander-vs-gerrit-cole-for-cy-young-2019
― clemenza, Wednesday, 18 September 2019 15:33 (four years ago) link
Cole has two starts left at this point, I guess? Verlander may also have two, which gives him a clean shot at the coveted and gritty 20 win mark.
― omar little, Wednesday, 18 September 2019 15:59 (four years ago) link
it’s surprising to me that strength of competition isn’t incorporated into basic WAR
― k3vin k., Wednesday, 18 September 2019 17:30 (four years ago) link
c'mon Mike Minor!
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 18 September 2019 20:43 (four years ago) link
Jacob deGrom's National League Cy Young Award defense gained some additional momentum today, when Max Scherzer allowed five runs in 6.2 IP.deGrom ranks:-First in pitcher bWAR-First in strikeouts-First in WHIP-Second in pitcher fWAR-Third in ERA-Fifth in innings— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 18, 2019
I don't give a fuckitty fuck who wins the awaaahds
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, September 15, 2019 8:17 AM (three days ago) bookmarkflaglink
― na (NA), Wednesday, 18 September 2019 21:17 (four years ago) link
I didn't know Tom Tango had a formula to predict Cy Young winners: (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W. Couldn't be simpler. Even there, still a toss-up, but he does give Cole a slight edge.
Cole -- 99.8Verlander -- 98.5
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 00:46 (four years ago) link
Do you mean subtract the walks?
― timellison, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:16 (four years ago) link
I cut-and-paste that from Tango's site...you would think so, yeah.
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:18 (four years ago) link
Wait a minute: W = wins. As Tango says, he's trying to predict the winner, not determine who deserves the award, and by his estimation, wins still carry a little weight--about 10% of the total in his formula. Here's what led me to the formula:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/youll_ryu_the_day/
One of the things I like about the formula is that, although it doesn’t weigh wins as heavily as other formulas ( which certainly reflects the trend in voter preferences), it doesn’t entirely dismiss them either. It recognizes that wins still carry some weight with some of the voters, and can help sway some votes if pitchers are close in other regards. I think that’s reasonable – clearly wins don’t mean as much as they used to in winning the Cy Young Award, but they do still mean something. deGrom was able to win the award in 2018 despite a modest win total because his ERA was light years better than everyone else’s, but if it was closer, you can bet that his lack of wins would likely have become a bigger factor.
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 01:23 (four years ago) link
i'm sure noted hockey fan tom tango is just having fun with stats but we could also . . . just wait for the results
― mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 02:14 (four years ago) link
On Monday, MLB announced the six candidates for AL and NL Comeback Player of the Year. The list includes Lucas Giolito, Hunter Pence and Jorge Soler in the AL and Josh Donaldson, Sonny Gray and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the NL.
― earlnash, Thursday, 17 October 2019 11:55 (four years ago) link
i'll take giolito and gray
― mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 14:41 (four years ago) link
don't you have to have arrived in order to come back? i'd disqualify giolito and soler on those grounds, so it would be pence in the AL.
― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 17 October 2019 14:51 (four years ago) link
Pence's story has some teeth, finally coming home after all these years and having an incredible first half. He sort of checked out in the 2nd half but made a big enough dent for the BBWAA to recognize.
― Jersey Al (Albert R. Broccoli), Thursday, 17 October 2019 16:11 (four years ago) link
Players selected Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman and Mike Trout as finalists in the American League and Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon in the National League in voting for Outstanding Player honors in the 2019 Players Choice Awards.— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 17, 2019
― mookieproof, Thursday, 17 October 2019 19:11 (four years ago) link
Pretty much 6/6 if pitchers are excluded...I suppose there might be another choice as valid as Devers.
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:00 (four years ago) link
Marcus Semien
― timellison, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:18 (four years ago) link
Forgot about him--a better choice.
― clemenza, Thursday, 17 October 2019 23:22 (four years ago) link
mike trout and christian yelich have won the 2019 hank aaron awards as Most Outstanding Offensive Performer in their leagues
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 23 October 2019 20:16 (four years ago) link
carlos carrasco = roberto clemente award
― mookieproof, Friday, 25 October 2019 18:09 (four years ago) link
racist josh header, abuser aroldis chapman named relievers of the year
― mookieproof, Saturday, 26 October 2019 20:56 (four years ago) link
Is he still a racist ?
― Van Horn Street, Sunday, 27 October 2019 02:18 (four years ago) link
is he still an abuser ?
― mookieproof, Sunday, 27 October 2019 05:00 (four years ago) link
It was funny to see these two get honoured during the WS, seeing as both Washington and Houston reached the WS because of their respective screw-ups.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 27 October 2019 07:38 (four years ago) link
Xp I don’t know, I live with the certainly naive hope that people can grow out of racist ideology. Abuse I don’t see it the same way.
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 28 October 2019 02:03 (four years ago) link
fielding bible awards: http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp
― mookieproof, Thursday, 31 October 2019 20:15 (four years ago) link
What’s with Joe voting Cain the 7th best CF? Come on, Joe
― It is my great honor to post on this messageboard! (Karl Malone), Thursday, 31 October 2019 20:41 (four years ago) link
James: "74% of you think that Trout SHOULD win the MVP, 53% think that he will. FWIW, I'd probably vote for Semien. I think that the argument that Trout should win because he is the best player in baseball is a legitimate argument, but that there are other approaches which are also valid."
Bregman, Trout, and Semien are only separated by 0.3 in bWAR, but that's still an odd choice that could use some explanation.
― clemenza, Wednesday, 6 November 2019 22:26 (four years ago) link
depends on one's assessment of their defensive values, it would seem
― mookieproof, Wednesday, 6 November 2019 22:50 (four years ago) link
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIyG74rVAAE2Usa?format=png&name=small
― mookieproof, Thursday, 7 November 2019 16:21 (four years ago) link
the astros were an average defensive team, weird
― k3vin k., Thursday, 7 November 2019 18:39 (four years ago) link
Cy Young winners through the prism of analytics:
http://www.billjamesonline.com/back_to_the_future_part_4/
When I was new here, I had an epic argument with SF Alex over the '73 AL Cy Young (short version: I said there was at least a case for Palmer, Alex said open-and-shut for Blyleven). Daniel Marks says neither.
― clemenza, Friday, 8 November 2019 00:58 (four years ago) link
Actually, through the prism of Tom Tango's CY formula.
― clemenza, Friday, 8 November 2019 00:59 (four years ago) link
ALONSO
robbed of unanimity
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2019/11/11/20959532/mets-news-pete-alonso-wins-rookie-of-the-year-award-new-york-mlb
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 12 November 2019 12:13 (four years ago) link
Both MOY votes were really close, for the first time in many years (I think)? Four or five managers in each league had legit cases for winning too.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 06:36 (four years ago) link
DeGrom wins the NL Cy Young, 29 out of 30 first place votes.
― omar little, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 23:39 (four years ago) link
Ryu gets the other
Verlander wins in the AL, 17 first place to Cole's 13.
― omar little, Wednesday, 13 November 2019 23:52 (four years ago) link
Cole wuz robbed!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 14 November 2019 02:22 (four years ago) link
Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes. I'm assuming it's the first time that's happened.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Thursday, 14 November 2019 06:43 (four years ago) link
Don't know if they got it right, but I thought Verlander-Cole was every bit as close as it should have been. (And the NL vote was every bit as not-close as it should have been.)
― clemenza, Thursday, 14 November 2019 17:50 (four years ago) link
i don't know of a counter-example off-hand, but that seems like it has to have happened before. pretty much anytime 2 pitchers stand head and shoulders above the rest of the league, right?
― Peaceful Warrior I Poser (Karl Malone), Thursday, 14 November 2019 17:53 (four years ago) link
i feel like it would have happened w/Johnson and Schilling, maybe, but i only found the 2002 results thus far and Johnson was unanimous #1 and Schilling won almost all the second place votes but several guys threw votes to Smoltz and Gagne (lol), they were so dominant mowing down a couple of batters twice a week or so that year.
― omar little, Thursday, 14 November 2019 18:35 (four years ago) link
Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes
see also trout and bregman
― mookieproof, Friday, 15 November 2019 02:42 (four years ago) link
I figured NTBT was talking about teammates
― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2019 02:46 (four years ago) link
oic
― mookieproof, Friday, 15 November 2019 02:54 (four years ago) link
Good laugh at the 6 writers who gave LeMahieu the third place over Semien.
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 15 November 2019 05:23 (four years ago) link
Actually I wasn't talking about teammates. But considering it happened again the very next day, maybe it isn't so rare?
Usually there's one near consensus pick or a few really good candidates and a highly split vote, no? I thought that two consensus candidates would be extremely rare.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Friday, 15 November 2019 12:09 (four years ago) link
maybe with the "numbers revolution" blah blah blah voters are becoming "more informed" (or something) thus there being less variance in their choices
― brimstead, Friday, 15 November 2019 19:32 (four years ago) link